N.L. East Offseason – Team by Team

Atlanta Braves

Nov. 13:  Braves sign Tim Hudson to a 3-year deal for $28 MM, with a club option for 2013.

The only question here is how well you expect Tim Hudson to age.  Based on Hudson’s track record, he’s easily worth 9 million per, even for his age 34-36 seasons.

But Hudson is coming off Tommy John surgery that limited him to 29 starts over the past two seasons.  They were 29 good starts, but that is still troubling for someone entering his mid-30’s.  It would be great to have him for one healthy season before committing to a multi-year deal, but the team doesn’t have that luxury.  While Hudson may never be an ace again, this contract isn’t likely to turn into an albatross, although I think I said the same thing about Derek Lowe’s deal.

Dec. 2:  Braves sign Billy Wagner to a 1-year deal for $7 MM, with a club option for 2011.

The 5th Annual Whiz Kid Awards

With pitchers and catchers reporting to Spring Training within a month (YEEHA), it’s time for me to publish my final articles on the 2009 season.  If time permits, a team-by-team postmortem is forthcoming, but that may not be feasible.  So I thought I’d go ahead with the 5th Annual (!) Whiz Kid Awards.
The Whiz Kid Awards began back in 2005 as my contribution to the year-end awards discussion.  I also added in a few unique categories to add my own stamp to things.  I may be late to the party with this, but you’re never too late to stir the stool, so to speak.

AMERICAN LEAGUE MVP:  Joe Mauer

The Mauer-for-MVP discussion was just the latest episode of the so-called Moneyball debate.  Mark Teixeira made an early bid for the AL honor by piling up HR and RBI on the AL Champions.  But on the same team, Derek Jeter was having one of the best seasons of his career.  This prompted many Jeter fan-boys to plead his case for the MVP as a “lifetime achievement” award.
I hate and despise lifetime achievement awards unless they are clearly labeled as such and nothing more.  It may be that they’ve never merited the award in any one season, but just deserve it based on their career.  Or they’re meant to honor someone who, for various reasons, didn’t get the honor when they should have … perhaps because somebody else was getting a lifetime achievement award.  That’s the crux of the matter; if we give Jeter a bogus MVP award this year, are we going to have to do the same for Mauer in ten years?  And which deserving young superstar will that screw over?
That aside, the biggest (and most substantive) objection to Mauer’s MVP case is that he lost about a month to injury at the start of the season.  The implication is that you can’t miss a month and be the MVP.  And I would usually agree with that.  It would take a phenomenal performance by a player to be the league’s best player with such a handicap.

2009 in Review

Time to revisit my preseason predictions.  Unfortunately. 

AL EAST PREDICTED:
New York Yankees (98-64) 96-100 win range
Boston Red Sox (93-69) 91-95 win range
Tampa Bay Rays (87-75) 85-89 win range
Toronto Blue Jays (79-83) 77-81 win range
Baltimore Orioles (73-89) 71-75 win range

And here’s what actually happened:

AL EAST ACTUAL:
New York Yankees (103-59) + 5 Wins
Boston Red Sox (95-67) +2 Wins
Tampa Bay Rays (84-78) -3 Wins
Toronto Blue Jays (75-87) -4 Wins
Baltimore Orioles (64-98) -9 Wins
Other than the Orioles, all of my predictions fell within five wins of the mark, a reasonable margin of error. 

Breaking the Silence

To Everyone --

I cannot be any more sorry that I have neglected this blog as long as I have.

More important than anything is that I have neglected myself. I have been struggling mightily with depression and anxiety these past few years and am sorry to say that I was losing the battle there for a while.

The things that interested me the most – baseball, movies, books, etc. – no longer held sway. On top of that, I felt a duty to keep working and maintaining this blog – which celebrated its 4th anniversary recently – and the longer I neglected that duty the tougher it became to break the silence and return to it.

Consider the silence broken.

Writing had become too much of a job for me. The anxiety I was dealing with in my everyday life was the worst factor, of course, but I also felt a duty to write first and foremost for Blogcritics.com, and unfortunately that just became more of a chore than a joy. I haven’t yet decided if I will return to Blogcritics, but I have decided that my first duty is to have fun – and that happens right here, first and foremost. If that means that writing will always be an amateur passion for me, so the hell be it.

I very much hope that, having partially relieved my anxiety with this post, I can return to writing about what I love. My first project – and I use that word hesitantly given the connotation with work – will be the postseason recap that’s been a feature of this blog for four years now. In the meantime, I hope to discuss the offseason Hot Stove, namely the MLB Winter Meetings now taking place.

I sincerely hope that I can just go back to having fun.  Then I can start conveying that fun to other people, which is what the whole damn thing was about in the first place.

Thank you – sincerely and mightily – for your support.

Best regards,

Aaron “W.K.” Whitehead

P.S. I’m seriously contemplating a “re-branding” of this blog. I like the catchiness of “whiz kid,” but I’ve never been comfortable with the arrogance inherent in calling myself that. Plus, I’m not really a kid by any means now.  I may be back to discuss my thoughts or just go for something new on a whim. Feedback is always appreciated.

BP Idol Entry: I Miss Skip & Pete

Author's Note: Recently, the Baseball Prospectus website asked for submissions for a new contest, Baseball Prospectus Idol. The editors would pick the ten best submissions, and the BP readers would vote off one writer each week. Unfortunately, I did not make the cut. Still, I was very proud of my submission. Since it won't be shown at BP, I'd like to introduce it here.

"Eleven to four
That's the score
And now the Braves
Will try for more."
-- Skip Caray

I can only think of four times over the past five years that I have been "giddy." Please understand that I am not a naturally giddy person; my level of emotion ranks somewhere between "shy and reserved" and "Vulcan." But I remember vividly what it was that made me, Sam the Eagle, giddy with joy like a little kid. It's no surprise that it was usually something to do with baseball: 

1. Yankee Stadium.

Baseball Book Review: Forever Blue by Michael D'Antonio

If any baseball figure represents pure evil in the hearts of longtime fans, it isn't Barry Bonds. Nor Alex Rodriguez, Pete Rose, Ty Cobb, or even the Chicago Black Sox. No, for many people, especially traditionalists, the most evil figure in baseball history is Walter O'Malley, who owned and operated the Dodgers for more than thirty years. What possible transgression could the owner of a baseball team commit that would surpass the damage done by the players listed above?
Simple. He moved the Dodgers from Brooklyn to Los Angeles.
It is this one act that has defined him -- and damned him -- for many, many years. But O'Malley's true impact on the game of baseball was quite vast and covered many different aspects of the game. In Forever Blue: The True Story of Walter O'Malley, Michael D'Antonio gets to the bottom of this familiar myth and tries to reveal the truth behind it. Yes, O'Malley did, as owner of the Dodgers, make the decision to move the team to Los Angeles. However, the characterization of him as an evil manipulator who broke the hearts of a neighborhood and ripped a civic institution away from a passionate community is the utter fiction. That the myth has survived so long proves the persistence of true hatred, especially when it comes to baseball.
For the most part, Michael D'Antonio does a fine job with his biography of O'Malley. He offers a concise view of the years leading up to his involvement with the Dodgers, astutely noting the most relevant stories and putting them together to create a realistic image of this now-mythical man. Granted, the end leaves much to be desired, but I'll get to that later.

Walter O'Malley came to own the Dodgers in a very roundabout way. As part of his job with the Brooklyn Trust Company, O'Malley was assigned to keep close tabs on one of the bank's biggest debtors: the Brooklyn Dodgers. The "Daffiness Boys" of the 1930's were rarely winners, but they always entertained the fans and soon became a part of the Brooklyn cultural identity. Unfortunately, the Dodger "daffiness" also applied to the team's business dealings off the field. The team's financial affairs were a mess. Not only that, but decision-making at the executive levels was thwarted by squabbling among the heirs of the team's previous owners. It's hard to imagine a more hopeless situation for a young, inexperienced lawyer such as Walter O'Malley.

The 15 Greatest Baseball Books

I recently had a reader ask for my list of the best baseball books ever written. Keeping in mind that there are many important books that I haven't read, I was still excited to be able to share some of my favorites. Summer reading season is approaching, and what better way is there to show your commitment to baseball than to haul a 600-page statistical tome to the beach. Sure, the people around you reading 150-page light romance novels may think you're a big geek. But as someone who likes to write lists of his favorite baseball books, I've come to terms with my geekiness.


The reason that this is a Top 15 list is that I started with a Top 10 list but couldn't bear to exclude any more books. Even so, I'm going to include a small list of "recommended reading" for some books that still didn't make the cut.
Before I get into specific books, I want to talk about a few staples of the baseball library that don't really belong on the list, for various reasons:

• Baseball Encyclopedias. Baseball encyclopedias used to be an essential part of any fan's library. But with the emergence of the internet -- especially retrosheet.org and the online baseball eden known as baseball-reference.com -- fans can get most of the stats in the encyclopedias for free online. There's also a Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia developed by Lee Sinins and sold as a computer program. I bought my last real baseball encyclopedia in 2003 (picking up the last edition of the Total Baseball series), but recently bought Sinins' program, which offers more options than your average website.
  
• Annuals, or Season Previews: These are often fantastic and invaluable sources of information. But if I included them on the Top 15 list, they'd take up 5 spots. And an annual's value obviously isn't as timeless as that of any other book. Some exceptions would be the Bill James Baseball Abstracts published in the late 70's and early 80's. Now, the premier baseball annuals are those published by Baseball Prospectus every February. You can also get a great deal of info and analysis from The Hardball Times, which published two books this off-season: a recap of the 2008 season and a preview of the 2009 season.
  
• Magazines/Journals/Periodicals: I'll admit that my experience with baseball as a scholarly enterprise is new, so I have very little experience with journals. I do keep some old periodicals, not just for nostalgia but also if there's a particularly interesting article in it. And I do have a few newspapers from notable days in baseball history, as well.

And with that said, on to the books!


15. Eight Men Out
by Eliot Asinof
This book has earned its status as one of the most celebrated sports books of all time. Asinof does an admirable job of playing the detective and bringing a fascinating group of people from different places into one coherent timeline.

When a Six-Run Inning Isn't the Pitcher's Fault

In Saturday's game versus the Rays, Jon Lester got off to a pretty good start. After giving up a two-run homer to Evan Longoria in the 1st, Lester regained his form and threw three scoreless innings. Until the 5th inning, that is, when everything fell apart. When the bleeding stopped, the Rays had scored six runs and had taken an 8-1 lead. The funny thing is, those six runs weren't really Lester's fault.
How can a pitcher give up six runs and not take most or all of the blame? You have to fault the defense, right? Nope, not their fault either. The Sox didn't commit an error in the inning, and they only made one little mistake that could be called a defensive "miscue". If not the defense, then, who was responsible for those six runs?
Luck.

Manny Ramirez Suspended 50 Games by MLB

Manny Ramirez, the popular but mercurial slugger for the Los Angeles Dodgers, has been suspended 50 games for violating Major League Baseball's Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program.
The suspension was announced Thursday afternoon. A statement from Manny Ramirez claims that he received the substance in question from a physician in Florida. He claims that his use was not recreational, and that he was unaware that the drug was banned.
Early reports indicated that Manny would appeal the suspension, and there were even arrangements made for a hearing to be scheduled in Los Angeles. According to ESPN's Peter Gammons, though, Manny backed off at the last minute and declined to appeal. Ramirez has taken public responsibility for using the substance, saying: "LA is a special place to me and I know everybody is disappointed. So am I. I'm sorry about this whole situation. "
There has been no official word on what the substance was that triggered the suspension. But ESPN writers T.J. Quinn and Mark Fainaru-Wada -- famous for writing the Barry Bonds/BALCO expose Game of Shadows -- are reporting that it was hCG, a women's fertility drug. According to the American Pregnancy Association's website, hCG is produced during pregnancy by cells that form the placenta. WebMD states that hCG levels can be tested to determine pergnancy but may also be affected by tumors.
That sounds innocent enough, but it fails to explain what an otherwise healthy adult male such as Ramirez would need them for. T.J. Quinn, speaking on an ESPNews broadcast, states that despite its uses as a female fertility drug, hCG is used almost exclusively by steroid users. hCG helps renew the body's ability to make testosterone. This is made necessary when steroid users have been doping for a certain period of time, inhibiting their body's ability to produce testosterone naturally. Not only does hCG seem to indicate steroid abuse in the vast majority of cases, but the substance itself is banned under baseball's drug policy, since it does enhance the body's testosterone levels.
Despite an official statement both from Ramirez and the MLB, there is some confusion as to how the substance was detected. It may or may not have come as part of baseball's random drug testing. Quinn reports that the hCG wasn't actually detected at first; his sources report that the only abnormality that registered was elevated levels of testosterone. This led investigators to determine what was responsible for the high levels of testosterone, and the use of hCG was indicated, reportedly, through documents uncovered during the process. It was this lack of a smoking gun, so to speak, that fueled speculation that Ramirez would lodge an appeal. His last-minute decision not to has raised some questions, with some speculating that Ramirez feared further incrimination during the appeals process. By declining an appeal, the matter is settled as far as the MLB is concerned.
This revelation has produced an instant outcry from the sports media. Peter Gammons tells us Ramirez's side of the story (in a manner that makes him sound more like Ramirez's agent than a journalist), whereas Fox Sports contributor Ken Rosenthal has nothing but contempt for Manny, not only for using but for getting caught at a time when a player's bodily fluids are under incredible supervision.
Ramirez's suspension casts a harsh shadow over a Dodgers team whose 21-8 record is the best in baseball. Not only that, but the Dodgers recently set a new record by notching 13 straight wins at home to begin a season. They've won seven straight and sit a comfortable 6.5 games ahead of the second-place Giants. Ramirez was the engine behind the Los Angeles offense, hitting .348 with 6 homers, 20 RBI and an incredible .492 on-base percentage. The bulk of the playing time in left field will likely go to Juan Pierre, a prospect that should send a cold chill up the back of Dodger fans.
There are still many unanswered questions surrounding this story. We'll have to keep looking to learn more and get some confirmation of the early reports coming from ESPN and T.J. Quinn. Either way, though, it looks like "Mannywood" will be out of action for nearly two months.

Shut the f*** up about HGH

"There is no evidence that steroid use has altered home run hitting and those who argue otherwise are profoundly ignorant of the statistics of home runs, the physics of baseball, and of the physiological effects of steroids." -- Professor Arthur DeVany, "Steroids, Home Runs and the Law of Genius"
Quoted on http://steroids-and-baseball.com/actual-effects.shtml
"A review of clinical studies among healthy, normally aging individuals found that hGH supplementation does not significantly increase muscle strength or aerobic exercise capacity." --http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/06/080617160837.htm ( American Medical Association )
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/05_48/b3961105.htm
(http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/03/080320132224.htm), Stanford Medical School
The Garvan Institute of Medical Research in Sydney, Australia(http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/06/080617113743.htm)or
The Mayo Clinic: http://www.mayoclinic.com/health/growth-hormone/HA00030
Slate.com: http://www.slate.com/id/2162473/nav/tap1/
J.C. Bradbury: http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/04/i-dont-worry-about-hgh-in-baseball-and-neither-should-you/
Bradbury's follow-up: http://dberri.wordpress.com/2007/04/24/rumors-experts-and-human-growth-hormone/
Annals of Internal Medicine: http://www.annals.org/cgi/content/full/0000605-200805200-00215v1?maxtoshow=&HITS=10&hits=10&RESULTFORMAT=&fulltext=athletic+performance&searchid=1&FIRSTINDEX=0&resourcetype=HWCIT
&
MSNBC: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23677433/
ABC NEWS: http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/06/04/1941168.htm
First-hand comments: http://forum.bodybuilding.com/showthread.php?t=6916111
Reaction to Newsday article no longer online: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/newsday_doctors_hgh_alone_doesnt_help_athletes/
Where's the on-field proof that they actually work ... : http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/22/opinion/22cole.html?_r=1&ex=1356066000&en=38ae29f2075786cc&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss
... for pitchers?: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/29/AR2006042901195.html
And the New England Freakin' Journal of Medicine (http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/348/9/779).
Pretty much every website that says HGH works is trying to sell it to you.
You better be damn sure about something before you stick a needle in someone's arm.
A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it. --Max Planck
Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof. --John Kenneth Galbraith
Major h/t to Eric Walker

Know When to Move 'Em

This past Saturday, I got a chance to watch my Braves maul the Reds to the tune of a 10-2 loss. I managed to get good seats to the ballgame, right down the left field line. As I sat there baking in the afternoon sun, I got a close look at the Cincinnati ballclub. Unfortunately, getting a close look at Reds baseball is a mixed blessing.
Case in point: third baseman Edwin Encarnacion. Encarnacion is a 26-year-old, good-hitting fellow whose biggest problem is a tendency to throw the ball not quite close enough to the big fellow with a glove standing at first base. Currently in his fifth major league season, Encarnacion has none the less committed 77 errors in his big league career. He’s the only player in the league who gets his defense recorded on a spray chart.
His erratic arm is a serious problem, but I didn’t realize how serious it was until I got a new statistical take on it. John Dewan, with the help of Baseball Info Solutions, has developed a new method of rating defense: the plus-minus ratings. It’s much more accurate than simple fielding percentage, but is still simple enough for even a casual fan to understand. A player’s plus-minus rating is the number of plays the player makes that an average player at that position would not normally make (a positive number is good, zero is average, negative numbers are bad). The newest set of plus-minus ratings were published in The Fielding Bible: Volume II, the sequel to Dewan’s groundbreaking 2006 book The Fielding Bible. Simply put, Encarnacion doesn’t look good.
According to Dewan’s system, Encarnacion was the worst full-time defensive third baseman in baseball in 2008, with a plus-minus rating of -21. The next-worst was Melvin Mora, at -13. Encarnacion is also the worst in the MLB over the last three seasons; his rating of -51 is worse than Garrett Atkins (-42) and ex-third baseman Miguel Cabrera (-40). Dewan’s listings only go back to 2003, and it should be said that Encarnacion isn’t considered the worst defensive third baseman over that period (2003-2008); he’s the second-worst (Ty Wigginton’s -75 is far worse than Encarnacion’s -46).

Sunday MLB Recap: No Need to Panic

There's a scene in King Kong vs. Godzilla where Godzilla appears over the horizon and attacks a train, knocking it to pieces. Of course, as the travellers are mobbing the exits, there's a train conductor standing in the middle of them, yelling, "Please! Don't panic!" I felt like that conductor this week as I watched baseball columnists and Yankee fans wailing and gnashing their teeth at the horrors that befell the team in its opening homestand. You'd never have known that the Yankees, instead of being eaten by Godzilla, went 2-2 against a pretty good team, the Indians. Granted, there's no good way to spin a 22-4 loss, and this could be a sign that the pitching (especially Chien-Ming Wang) isn't as good as we thought. But the new Yankee Stadium is a sturdy piece of architecture; it can withstand worse.
With that in mind, here's a recap of some busy Sunday action with a look at what this means for the coming season.

FAIL @ Men's Journal

I'm amazed that a seemingly respectable magazine would actually print this. This is terrible on every possible judgment of the "terrible" meter. It's the sort of article a drunken moron would piss out after a bad day at Yankee Stadium. There is no fact in this article, not nearly enough to justify the anger. The writer's utter cluelessness and ignorance about the game of baseball and, apparently, life, is enough to make me optimistic about a career in baseball writing. I sure as hell can't do any worse than that, an article for which Matt Taibbi was presumably paid good American currency.

Yeesh.

(h/t Shysterball)

Blast from the Past: 2006

I know that advertisers are finding new ways to horn in on MLB TV. They're not just buying awards, they're trying to sponsor every segment or every pause.
The worst is the WebMD injury report. Now, this doesn't sound that bad at first. It's flagrant ad-placement, yes, but hey, it's nice to explain to a fan just where the ACL is or what the oblique muscle does. It could be useful.
Instead, WebMD used their CGI 3-d rendering of a human body's musculature to illustrate, for the viewers at home: a sore wrist. I'm not f***ing kidding. How inconceviably DUMB do you have to be to need a TV animation to explain to you what a SORE WRIST is?!

"Phyllis, I've got an ouch."

Final 2009 Predictions

American League

NL East
New York Yankees (98-64)
Boston Red Sox* (93-69)
Tampa Bay Rays (87-75)
Toronto Blue Jays (79-83)
Baltimore Orioles (73-89)
* -- denotes Wild Card

NL Central
Cleveland Indians (88-74)
Minnesota Twins (84-78)
Chicago White Sox (79-83)
Detroit Tigers (78-84)
Kansas City Royals (72-90)

NL West
Los Angeles Angels (85-77)
Oakland Athletics (84-78)
Texas Rangers (78-84)
Seattle Mariners (70-92)

ALCS: Yankees over Indians

World Series: Dodgers over Yankees

AL MVP: Mark Teixeira, Yankees

AL Cy Young: Josh Beckett, Red Sox

AL Rookie of the Year: Matt Wieters, Orioles

National League

NL East
New York Mets (95-67)
Philadelphia Phillies* (89-73)
Atlanta Braves (87-75)
Florida Marlins (76-86)
Washington Nationals (65-97)

NL Central
Chicago Cubs (91-71)
St. Louis Cardinals (84-78)
Milwaukee Brewers (80-82)
Cincinnati Reds (78-84)
Houston Astros (67-95)
Pittsburgh Pirates (66-96)

NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers (93-69)
Arizona Diamondbacks (87-75)
San Francisco Giants (78-84)
Colorado Rockies (76-86)
San Diego Padres (62-100)

NLCS: Dodgers over Cubs

World Series: Dodgers over Yankees

NL MVP: David Wright, Mets

NL Cy Young: Johan Santana, Mets

NL Rookie of the Year: Kenshin Kawakami, Braves

NL West Preview: Manny to the Rescue

Prediction
1 – Los Angeles Dodgers
2 – Arizona Diamondbacks
3 – San Francisco Giants
4 – Colorado Rockies
5 – San Diego Padres

Los Angeles Dodgers
Last year's NL West race came down to the final week of the season, with L.A. just edging out the Diamondbacks. This year's race looks about the same, with the Dodgers and 'Backs pacing the division. What really separates the two is L.A.'s great opportunity for improvement; they've got the young talent to take the division by storm.
It starts in the rotation with ace Chad Billingsley. The Dodgers will miss Derek Lowe, but Billingsley should be able to step up and do just as well, if not better. Last year, Billingsley posted a 3.14 ERA and struck out 201 batters in 200.2 innings. The only concern here is the big increase in innings pitched in 2008 (65.1 more than in 2007, including the postseason) as well as his 80 walks allowed. The other young stud in the L.A. stable is Clayton Kershaw. Long-term, Kershaw's ceiling may be higher than Billingsley's, but he's still quite young; he just turned 21. But while he may not top 200 innings, Kershaw looked pretty sharp as a 20-year-old rookie last year, managing a 4.26 ERA with 100 K in 107.2 IP.

NL Central Preview: Can the Cubs Three-Peat?

My Prediction:
1 – Chicago Cubs
2 – St. Louis Cardinals
3 – Milwaukee Brewers
4 – Cincinnati Reds
5 – Houston Astros
6 – Pittsburgh Pirates

Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are strong favorites in the NL Central once again. They’ve kept together most of the key players from 2008, while other teams in the division are either taking a step back or just struggling to stay in place.
The team is returning its top four starters in Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly and Rich Harden. It’s a strong group, although there are concerns about Harden’s ability to make 20 starts, let alone 30. The team also took a big step back at closer, losing Kerry Wood to free agency and replacing him with trade acquisition Kevin Gregg. The Cubs have clearly overrated Gregg, due to his status as a Proven Closer. They’ve still got a great safety net in Carlos Marmol, but the Cubs will see a big difference between Gregg and the departed Wood.
Chicago has a unique depth to their offense.

NL East Preview: The Good, the Bad and the Utley

My Prediction:
1 – New York Mets
2 – Philadelphia Phillies
3 – Atlanta Braves
4 – Florida Marlins
5 – Washington Nationals

New York Mets
I'd like to put away any discussion of "choking," first of all, mainly because I don't really believe in it. Choking is a way for fans of other teams to make fun of their rivals, and it's a way for lazy commentators to turn a complex baseball season into a narrative. Yes, the Mets did a terrible job in September, both last year and in 2007. But it was due to normal, everyday baseball reasons. It's possible that there's some personality flaw that plagues the Mets and prevents them from performing well in tight situations, but that's a little far-fetched to me.

Shilling for Schilling

Curt Schilling recently announced his retirement from baseball. Schilling missed 2008 due to injury, and it was looking less and less likely that he would be able to return in 2009. So at the age of 42, he's hanging it up. I personally think Curt is a future Hall-of-Famer, but the thing that's most interesting to me about his career, isn't the bloody sock, of the 2001 World Series. It's the strange way it unfolded.
Not many future Hall-of-Famers were included as throw-ins in three separate trades. If you're considered that expendable, it's usually for a reason. By the time Curt Schilling became a star, he was pitching for his fourth major league organization. After being drafted by the Red Sox in 1986, he spent the next few years as a promising but flawed pitching prospect whose commitment to excellence was called into question. He certainly wasn't unique. There have been countless pitchers like that, who had enough talent, but for a variety of reasons just never fully committed themselves. Those guys end up as relief pitchers or minor leaguers or just high school coaches.
But Curt Schilling was unique. It may have taken him a while, but he became not just a good pitcher, but a great one. Part of that talent was always there, just waiting for him to activate it. But it also took a new work ethic and a commitment to excellence to push Schilling into elite company.
It's ironic that the first team to give up on Schilling was the Red Sox, where he would later put the final touches on his brilliant career. The Sox drafted Schilling in the 2nd round of the 1986 draft. Schilling got off to a good start in the minors, but in 1988 the Sox were in the postseason hunt and sent Schilling (and Brady Anderson) to the Orioles for veteran Mike Boddicker. Boddicker pitched brilliantly down the stretch and helped the Sox win the division by just one game over Detroit. The Orioles, on the other hand, were on their way to a 54-107 season.
Schilling showed good numbers, but the O's had several promising young starters at the time, and they decided (unfortunately) that Schilling was expendable; they were coveting slugging Astros first baseman Glenn Davis. But Davis was coming off a season where he'd hit just 22 HR in 93 games. And he was about to turn 30. But the Orioles traded for him anyway, giving up Schilling, Steve Finley, and Pete Harnisch. That's one of the most unbalanced trades in recent years, especially since Davis tanked in Baltimore and never hit well again. And Schilling and Harnisch both would perform better than the young pitchers the Orioles decided to keep (Ben McDonald, Bob Milacki, John Mitchell, Anthony Telford, and Jeff Ballard wouldn't make any All-Star teams. Schilling made six, and Harnisch made one).

AL West Preview: Angels and Demons

My Prediction:
1st: Los Angeles Angels
2nd: Oakland Athletics
3rd: Texas Rangers
4th: Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Angels

The only team that needed Mark Teixeira more than the Yankees was the Angels. With the injuries to Vladimir Guerrero, the Angels just don't have an impact bat anymore – period. They finished 10th in the AL in runs scored last year, and that was with half a season of Teixeira hitting 358/449/632*. Their 100-62 record in 2008 disguised a roster whose Pythagorean record was a disappointing 88-74. Stuck in a division with two of the best farm systems – Oakland and Texas – churning out prospects left and right, there's no room for disappointment.

AL Central Preview: Anybody's Game

Over the past three years, four of the five teams in the AL Central have gone to the postseason. Each year, one team takes a step forward and then stumbles back. Is this the year that somebody finally dominates? Or will it be another photo finish?

My Predictions:
1st: Minnesota Twins
2nd: Cleveland Indians
3rd: Chicago White Sox
4th: Detroit Tigers
5th: Kansas City Royals

Minnesota Twins
The Twins made a valiant effort in 2008, finishing the season tied with the White Sox for the AL Central title. They lost a one-game playoff for the division crown, but none the less they made a great effort.
Still, when you have such a close call, you have to look for those opportunities you missed to improve your team. With the Twins, these were pretty clear. They left Francisco Liriano in the minors far longer than was necessary, with Livan Hernandez wreaking havoc in his place. More importantly, they utterly failed to improve the left half of their infield, even though they've had the same problem for years. If the Twins had been willing to spend just a moderate amount of money to acquire a decent third baseman a few years ago, they may have made it to the World Series, after failing to get there with postseason appearances in 2002, 2003, 2004, and 2006.

2009 AL East Preview

The time had come for a change in Yankee-ville, and the Bronx Bombers were more than ready to seize the day. They started out by signing ace starter CC Sabathia (7 yrs., $161 MM) and strikeout master A.J. Burnett (5 yrs., $82.5 MM). And to bolster their offense, they brought in 28-year-old Mark Teixeira (8 yrs., $180 MM) to play first. The changes gave the Yankees a huge boost and put the spotlight on them as the team to beat in the AL East.
But the story isn't that simple. The Rays are still there, and while they may be destined to take a step back from the 2008 brilliance, that's no guarantee. The Red Sox spent the off-season adding spare parts like Josh Bard, John Smoltz and Ramon Ramirez, but they still feel confident that their core producers can compete with anyone, rich or poor.
It's tough to choose a winner out of three significant contenders. But here's how I see it happening ...

2009 Prediction
1st — New York Yankees
2nd — Boston Red Sox
3rd — Tampa Bay Rays
4th — Toronto Blue Jays
5th — Baltimore Orioles

New York Yankees
Not only have the Yankees added a significant upgrade at three positions (two starters and a first baseman), they also have a lot of room for improvement from within.

Mr. Selig Goes to Washington

Bud Selig's master plan was for baseball to return to Washington. In the dying days of the Montreal Expos, Selig made clear his desire that the team move out of Quebec and into the nation's capital. There were rumors that other cities were being considered, sure, but few people took seriously the idea that major league baseball could succeed in Monterrey, Mexico. Washington had a baseball-ready stadium and, not so coincidentally, would put baseball in the back yard of the movers and shakers on Capitol Hill.
Well, it didn't work out that way.
The Nationals inherited a front office run on a shoestring budget, a fallow farm system, and a team that hadn't been interesting in ten years. In 2008, the team lost 102 games, the worst record in baseball, and the worst mark for the franchise since 1976. But on the bright side, at least the front office wasn't under investigation by the FBI.
Oops . . .
Over the past year, federal investigators have been investigating charges that a handful of baseball teams were skimming bonus money away from young Caribbean players. The Nationals were among the teams named, with GM Jim Bowden and special assistant Jose Rijo targeted by the investigation. Rijo was fired by the Nats a week ago, and the axe fell on Bowden on Sunday. He "resigned" days after word got out that the team was probably going to fire him.
Things weren't supposed to happen this way. But if you look at the situation realistically, we shouldn't be surprised. Well, the FBI investigation is surprising, but the team's overall failure was almost predictable given the circumstances.
There were three different problems that essentially "doomed" the Washington Nationals to this period of futility. They were: the city, the franchise, and the personnel. Each one played a part in bringing about the team's humiliating 2008-09 performance.

The Salary Cap: Baseball's Enduring Straw Man

I hate the Yankees.

In the interests of fairness, I should make this clear before I go on. I've been a fan of the Atlanta Braves since the days of Dale Murphy, Rick Mahler and Bob Horner. It was with great pride that I watched the Braves build themselves into a baseball dynasty.
And it was with great pain that I watched them go down, again and again, in October. Yes, they won it all in 1995, beating the Indians in six exciting games. But as good as it was to see that, it was with a crushing sense of pain and doom that I watched the Braves lose the series in 1996 to the Damn Yankees. I remember sitting about 8 inches from the TV screen as Mark Lemke popped out in the 9th inning. I tried to force the ball into the stands by sheer force of will, but it didn't work. Charlie Hayes caught it for the last out of the series. And so was born my hatred of the Yankees. It didn't get any better in 1999, when the Yankees swept the Braves out of the World Series. By then my hatred was festering.
I say all of this because what I'm about to say may sound like Yankee favoritism. Let me assure you that it is NOT. What I say I say as a baseball fan, pure and simple.
Baseball doesn't need a salary cap.
 

"The Kid" Isn't a Kid Anymore

Just yesterday, ESPN.com reported that the Seattle Mariners have signed Ken Griffey, Jr. to a one-year deal worth $2 million, with incentives that could make it worth as much as $4.5 million. The deal got good reviews from many reporters and columnists. As for me, it sent me off on a nostalgia trip.
A trip back to a simpler time. Back when my Braves were still lovable losers. Back when none of us had ever heard of a place called Iraq. Back when collecting baseball cards was still a young boy's hobby.

... 1989 ...

(Cue Paula Abdul ... or something a little more macho)

Back in my baseball card-collecting days, 1989 was a landmark year. Together with my Dad and my brother, we made it our duty to gather as many complete sets as possible. We came close, getting all but the new and expensive Upper Deck series.

Integrity? What Integrity?

This article was first published at blogcritics.org. I'm going to be a contributor there under the Sports section, so look for my column there.
The integrity of baseball is not at risk. This may seem like a rash thing to say these days, when pretty much everyone else is claiming the opposite. In the days since Alex Rodriguez's admission of the use of "banned substances," he has made the short list of the most hated baseball players of all time. He — along with Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds — have been publicly blasted for their admissions (and non-admissions) concerning their use of performance-enhancing drugs (PEDs*). And, in an unscientific poll taken by John Erardi of the Cincinnati Enquirer, none of the accused PED users would win induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame.
* — It's very important to make the distinction between "steroids" on one hand, and "PEDs," on the other. Steroids are a specific type of performance-enhancer. But not all PEDs are steroids. PEDs refer to any substance giving the user an "unfair" advantage. Most stories on this subject use "steroids" as a catch-all term when they should say PEDs or "banned substances," which refers specifically to those substances outlawed either by law or by the MLB. For the best information about PEDs and steroids as it relates to baseball, read The Juice by Will Carroll.
Baseball columnists everywhere are outraged. In the Detroit Free Press, Drew Sharp argues that you can't call baseball a sport anymore. Bill Madden of the New York Daily News says that the Yankees should just release A-Rod and eat the $270 million remaining on his contract.
The tone of the conversation in the sports media has generally been that A-Rod has forever tainted our most precious institutions and should be severely punished.
To this I say: Phooey.

8 Questions to Answer

Before you do anything else, go over to espn.com and read this interview with former baseball union leader Marvin Miller. I don't agree with everything he says, but his insights into the controversy need to be given greater attention. If everyone had to interview Miller for this story, they'd at least come away wiser. And from what I've read so far, their learning curve is steep.

I mentioned yesterday William Saletan's article at slate.com that asks eight rhetorical questions designed to cast a shadow over A-Rod and his career. Instead of my short, highly critical response posted as a comment on the Slate website (and again on here yesterday), I'll take the opportunity to answer his questions in a more level-headed manner.

(Note: Saletan's article and my initial comment were written before A-Rod's admission of guilt in an ESPN interview with Peter Gammons. But I'll take A-Rod's story into account when answering these questions).

Question One: [A-Rod's] name is on the list of flunked players. As today's New York Times explains, "the players had agreed to the 2003 tests under the condition that their results would never be revealed." How many other tests have been taken and flunked but, under rules dictated by the players, never disclosed to the public?

Answer: According to sources in possession of the list, there are about 104 names on it. Take away A-Rod and (presumably) Barry Bonds, and that's 102 names left.

P***ed off at Slate.com

With the *news* emerging about Alex Rodriguez, I knew I would inevitably read some sports columnist who would piss me off. Actually I read two of them, both at slate.com today.
First was Tim Marchman, whose article on Sunday contained a few bits that set me off. Read his article first, then read the below, which I posted as a comment on the article:

"There was always something inherently implausible about the idea of a 225-pound shortstop playing Gold Glove defense while popping 50 home runs a year."
A-Rod is listed at 6'3", 190 lbs (but I'll give you 225).
Cal Ripken was listed as 6'4 and 225 lbs.
If I am to take you seriously, then Cal Ripken is as guilty as A-Rod. If the standard is baseless inference (factually flawed), then there's more evidence against Ripken, who was even larger than A-Rod when compared to his contemporaries.

Catching Up

• I was really looking forward to doing my first video blog, but a whole lot has come up since then. I’ve had some bad personal problems come up, and I’ve also travelled to New York to audition for graduate schools to get my MFA in Acting. I’m now sitting in the Newark airport getting ready to fly to Alabama for my final audition. There have been some bits of baseball news come up since then, and I have kept a list of them so that I could cover them all in my next blog. Unfortunately, the list is in Kentucky, and I won’t be there until Sunday. So here’s a few tidbits to tide you over until then:
• A whole slew of new information has come out concerning Barry Bonds. First of all, it seems that former Giants teammate Bobby Estalella is going to testify against Bonds at his perjury trial. It’s anybody’s guess what Estalella has to say. He may have direct knowledge of Bonds’ steroid use, or he may just have some more innuendo and hearsay to offer. Either way, he’s no smoking gun, especially if Bonds has good defense lawyers.
  

Slow News Day

It’s been a slow period for baseball news. Here’s hoping that things pick up soon.

• Mark Teixeira signed a blockbuster free agent deal with the New York Yankees, at 8 years and $180 million. Teixeira fills a BIG hole in the Yankee lineup, as they’ve needed an impact productive first baseman for some time now. Teixeira’s great bat and great glove are both important additions to a Yankee lineup that needed an infusion of both offense and defense. The move also has the effect of forcing Nick Swisher to the outfield. Considering that he’ll be taking playing time away from Melky Cabrera and/or Xavier Nady, this is a good thing for New York.
  Signing the deal has gotten the Yankees a lot of heat for so thoroughly outspending the other 29 major league teams. My response is this: a) it’s asinine to get mad at a team for making themselves better, and b) if you’re mad that the Yankees have so much money, blame Michael Blomberg and the city of New York for saving them a bunch of money on their new stadium.
  
  

In Which Rafael Furcal Makes a Boo-Boo

• Rafael Furcal's agents apparently had a deal with the Braves for Furcal to sign with Atlanta. But instead of doing so, Furcal took the deal (which had already been agreed upon, according to the Braves) and used it to extort a better deal from the Dodgers, who ended up actually signing Furcal. Furcal's agents are claiming that no deal was agreed to, but the Braves say that they sent the term sheet to Furcal's agents -- which is, in baseball, equivalent to a handshake deal. Furcal's agents reneged, and the Braves are seriously angry. They've vowed never to deal with Furcal's agents again.
  I don't know who's telling the truth, but the Braves' story seems more plausible. Granted, no deal in baseball is really official until the commissioner and the player's union sign off on it. But a deal is a deal is a deal, and to go against that rule will seriously hurt your integrity in the future. Furcal's agents aren't stars; they're not people that teams have to work with to get the good players. It seems they made a pretty serious miscalculation, not to mention a breach of ethics, even if no rules were broken. And the person who will end up getting booed over it is none of these guys, but rather Furcal himself.
• Since writing up the Raul Ibanez deal in my last post, I've changed my opinion somewhat. This is mainly due to a fact that I should have remembered when they signed the deal -- Ibanez is a Type-A free agent, meaning that the Phillies lose their first round draft pick to Seattle. On the other hand, the Phillies did not offer Pat Burrel arbitration at all, so they won't get anything in return from the team that ends up signing him.
  

Winter Meetings Round-Up

• The Yanks ended up getting C.C. Sabathia for a 7-year deal worth about $161 MM ($23 MM AAV). Considering where the Yankees are, I can see how this is the right move for them. They've been pressured to sign a free agent starter in past offseasons and ended up with the likes of Jaret Wright and Carl Pavano. This time there was a legitimate ace out there, and the Yankees nabbed him. Not that there was a lot of doubt on that front.
  My personal take is that I would NEVER give any pitcher a 7-year contract. So many things about Sabathia's future are unknown; he's shouldered a very heavy workload, but it hasn't seemed to affect him yet. He's nearly 300 pounds, but it's hard to find any pitcher from the past to compare him to. I'm far too conservative fiscally to commit so much money to an unknown quantity. But as I say, the Yankees are in the unique position of being able to afford it.
  There are just two things that bug me, even taking that into account: 1) the Yanks could have had him for less money, as their haste to outbid everyone else and get the deal done early added to the final amount, and 2) Sabathia has an opt-out clause after the third year of the deal. An opt-out clause fully protects the player while providing no advantage to the signing team. The disadvantage is that the Yankees don't really have Sabathia signed for seven years; they have him signed for three years with a player option for four more. Apparently the Yanks felt that they had to include this in the contract to be "competitive." I'm quite skeptical of that. $161 million and a seventh year is competitive enough.
• Another Brewer who might soon become a Yankee is Mike Cameron. Rumor has it that the Brewers and Yanks are close to a deal that would send Cameron to the Bronx in exchange for Melky Cabrera. This would be a good money-saving move for the Brewers (and give them a center fielder for longer than one year), even if it hurts them in the short run. And it would give the Yankees a true center fielder who can hit to put in the lineup. The cost to them is minimal; Cabrera's time as a Yankee was done. We'll see if this deal gets done.
• The Mets signed Francisco Rodriguez to a 3-year deal worth about $37 million. This is far less than the 5-year $60 million deal that some were predicting at season's end. It's still probably overpaying, but the Mets can afford to do that, as can the Yankees. The worry here isn't so much with dollars as it is with years; the Mets were able to get the most coveted relief arm out there (whether he's the best is debatable) without having to add a fourth year. And considering the concerns about K-Rod's arm and performance, this deal is a better risk for New York.
  

Welcome!

For those of you who are new to my site, thanks to the excerpt published in the 2009 Hardball Times Baseball Annual, I thought I'd offer you a short introduction to what I've been doing here for the past three-plus years. Feel free to browse around, comment, or e-mail me with any feedback.


END-OF-YEAR AWARDS:

11/13/08: The 4th Annual Whiz Kid Awards
Some usual, some unusual.
11/12/07: My Awards 2007, Part 2
The 3rd Annual Whiz Kid Awards (2 parts)
10/10/06: 2006 Awards
The 2nd Annual Whiz Kid Awards (2 parts)
10/5/05: The Awards Go To Somebody ...
The 1st Annual Whiz Kid Awards (4 parts)


GAME RECAPS:

10/12/08: NLCS Game 3 Running Commentary
My first experiment with a live blog.
10/2/07: Rockies 9, Padres 8
A one-game playoff for the ages.
8/8/07: A Birthday at the Ballpark
Back to the GABP, this time with pictures.
7/26/07: Reds Win? An Evening at the Ballpark
A stream-of-consciousness evening at the Great American Ballpark. A laid-back night, until Pedro Lopez gets hit in the face by a pitch.
5/1/07: Yankee Stadium: April 19, 2007
My first (and only) visit to the stadium culminates in a Yankee comeback capped off by an A-Rod walkoff homer against Joe Borowski.
10/26/05: 5 hours, 41 minutes ...
Game 3 of the 2005 World Series. I decided to try calling the game as an announcer, using just my own little tape recorder. It turned out to be the longest game in World Series history.

TRADES/FREE AGENCY:

2008 AL Central in Review

Chicago White Sox

W-L: 89-74 (1st in AL Central)

pW-pL: 89-74
Payroll: $121,189,332 (4th in AL)
R/G: 4.98 (5th in AL)
ERA: 4.11 (6th in AL)
DER: .686 (8th in AL)
Team MVPs: Carlos Quentin, John Danks, Jermaine Dye, Mark Buehrle, Jim Thome
A Drag on the Payroll: Jose Contreras (4.54 ERA, 70 K in 121 IP)
What Went Right:

2008 AL East in Review

Baltimore Orioles

W-L: 68-93 (Last in AL East)

pW-pL: 73-88

Payroll: $67,196,246 (10th in AL)

R/G: 4.86 (8th in AL)

ERA: 5.15 (13th in AL)

DER: .687 (7th in AL)

Team MVPs: Nick Markakis, Brian Roberts, Aubrey Huff

A Drag on the Payroll: Ramon Hernandez (257/308/406, $7.5 MM), Jay Payton (243/291/346, $5 MM), Danys Baez (Did Not Pitch, $4.5 MM), Jamie Walker (6.87 ERA, 38 IP, $4.5 MM)

What Went Right: The Erik Bedard trade worked out pretty well. Adam Jones is still looking quite raw as an athlete, but even still, you know the Mariners would like that one back. Both Aubrey Huff (304/360/552) and Melvin Mora (285/342/483) experienced strong bounceback seasons in their 30's. There hasn't been a complete turnaround, but there's enough happiness here to sustain some legitimate optimism.

Preseason picks revisited

MY NL EAST PREDICTIONS:


New York Mets (97-65) 95-99 win range
Philadelphia Phillies* (91-71) 89-93 win range
Atlanta Braves (84-78) 82-86 win range
Washington Nationals (73-89) 71-75 win range
Florida Marlins (65-97) 63-67 win range
* -- denotes Wild Card


And here's what really happened (and how much I was off):


Philadelphia Phillies (92-70) +1 wins
New York Mets (89-73) -8 wins
Florida Marlins (84-77) +19 wins
Atlanta Braves (72-90) -12 wins
Washington Nationals (59-102) -14 wins


This was not one of my better predictions.

Trade activity

• The White Sox traded Nick Swisher and prospect Kaneoka Texeira to the Yankees for Wilson Betemit, Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez. The Yankees get a Plan B first baseman in Swisher, and if they sign Teixeira, they give someone who gives them more flexibility in the outfield. Swisher should bounce back from a poor season in Chicago and hit like a league-average first baseman.
  The question here is what this does for the White Sox, who are presumably trying to win in 2009. Unless they just don't like Swisher's aftershave, it's hard to see what they gain here. Betemit can play third base, but that's not saying much. He's not the kind of guy you target to fill a hole. I think they just gave up on Swisher too soon.
  This helps the Yankees, since they now have a legitimate backup plan if they can't sign Mark Teixiera. They need Teixeira, of course, and if they get him, Swisher becomes a useful outfielder. It may also enable them to bench or trade whomever becomes the odd man out.
• The Cubs sent relief prospect Jose Ceda to Florida for Marlins "closer" Kevin Gregg.
  
  

The 4th Annual Whiz Kid Awards

American League MVP: Cliff Lee
This was the toughest one of all to determine. There are a half-dozen good candidates for AL MVP, but I decided to choose Lee. Although there's a Wild Card in the group that I had some trouble dealing with.
First of all, let's list the top players in the league and see who we can eliminate:
Sizemore: 268/375/502 , 62.7 VORP
Alex Rodriguez: 302/392/573, 65.6 VORP
Joe Mauer: 328/413/451, 55.5 VORP
Dustin Pedroia: 326/376/493, 62.3 VORP
Justin Morneau: 300/374/499, 45.5 VORP
Kevin Youkilis: 312/390/569, 55.8 VORP
Josh Hamilton: 304/371/530, 57.1 VORP

Cliff Lee: 22-3, 2.54 ERA, 223.1 IP, 34:170 BB:K ratio, 75.0 VORP
Francisco Rodriguez: 2-3, 2.24 ERA, 62 SV, 7 BS, 68.1 IP, 34:77 BB:K ratio, 22.3 VORP

Well, we can scratch K-Rod off the list right away. He's about the fifth-best closer in the AL, so he's not winning any awards this year. I think that Lee was the best pitcher in the AL (see below for that debate), so he's the only one we'll consider.
As for the hitters, remember that VORP doesn't take into account defensive ability. Once you admit that, I think you have to eliminate the first basemen (Morneau and Youkilis). Both were very good, but not really any better than the guys playing much more difficult defensive positions. Youkilis gets a good bonus for his glove, but he takes a hit for only managing 538 ABs (compared to 623 for Morneau and 653 for Pedroia).
Josh Hamilton's numbers look a bit better than Sizemore's until you consider the difference in home ballparks and Sizemore's better defensive skills. So Hamilton's out. As for Joe Mauer, he was quite good, but not demonstrably better than his competitors, even considering his defense. Since his playing time was limited (536 ABs) we have to get rid of him as well.
Unfortunately, the same goes for A-Rod. On a per-at bat basis, A-Rod was the best hitter in the league. But he only managed 575 PAs (AB + BB), against 732 for Sizemore and 703 for Pedroia. That's about 3 weeks worth of PAs, which is a sizeable chunk. Given that detriment, I think that A-Rod's superior play can't be called the best in the league.
As for Sizemore and Pedroia, Sizemore has the better overall numbers (if just barely), although Pedroia comes close when you consider defense. It's a very close call, and I wouldn't blame anyone who voted for Pedroia, but I'm going for Grady Sizemore.
So I'm left with just Sizemore .vs. Lee in my MVP discussion. Lee has a clear edge in VORP, but does that best reflect the differences between hitters and pitchers? I think it does. Lee was just better than any of the hitters in 2008. There was no hitter that had a really strong, MVP-level campaign. This helps explain why there are so many MVP candidates; no one had that really hot, MVP-caliber year. And when that happens, the spot opens up for a dominant pitcher, and Lee was, luckily for him, dominant enough.

And what about that wild card I alluded to earlier? It's this guy:
Mark Teixeira: 308/410/552, 66.5 VORP

Teixeira would be, if he'd spent the whole season in the AL, the league's top player. You could really argue then about whether he was better than Lee, and that would cause me a major headache. But it's a moot point, really. The award is the AL MVP award, and most of Teixeira's time came in the NL. Even if we were to combine his stats for the two leagues, we'd have to take into account that the NL is an inferior league with easier competition.
So although my vote goes for Cliff Lee, I have to say that only a technicality prevents me from considering Teixeira.

1. Cliff Lee, Indians
2. Grady Sizemore, Indians
3. Dustin Pedroia, Boston
4. Roy Halladay, Toronto
5. Alex Rodriguez, New York
6. Joe Mauer, Minnesota
7. Jon Lester, Boston
8. Justin Morneau, Minnesota
9. Kevin Youkilis, Boston
10. Nick Markakis, Baltimore

(Honorable Mention: Milton Bradley, Josh Hamilton, Carlos Quentin, Curtis Granderson, Ervin Santana, John Danks, Daisuke Matsuzaka)
National League MVP: Albert Pujols

Hollid-A

Color me surprised. The Rockies have agreed (in principle) to trade star outfielder Matt Holliday to the Oakland A's for Huston Street, Greg Smith, and outfield prospect Carlos Gonzalez.
The biggest shock, to me, is that the A's are in the market at all. After trading away Dan Haren and Joe Blanton last year, it seemed pretty clear that they were aiming to rebuild in 2009. What has changed since then to make them think they can contend in 2009? As far as I can tell, nothing. The A's had the worst offense in the AL last year. With Holliday, whoopee, they can move up to 10th or 11th. Now everyone's talking about them getting even better, perhaps going after a free agent or two.
I'm skeptical.

Trade Speculation

The trade market looks to be particulary active this offseason. So let's take a look at some of the players most often mentioned in trade talk. I'd also like to mention the relative wisdom of trading away, or trading for, these players, based on what they're expected to bring in return.

Jake Peavy
Key Suitors: Braves, Cubs, Dodgers

"Word" is that the Braves are the leading candidates in the Peavy trade talks. Atlanta GM Frank Wren had gone on record as saying that the Braves didn't have the prospects to give up in such a deal, but he has apparently changed his mind. The trade talks are deeply involved, according to Padres GM Kevin Towers, although he hasn't gone on record as naming a front-runner.

2008 NL West in Review

Arizona Diamondbacks

W-L: 82-80 (2nd in NL West)
pW-pL: 82-80
Payroll: $66,202,712 (13th in NL)
R/G: 4.44 (10th in NL)
ERA: 3.99 (5th in NL)
DER: .685 (T-12th in NL)
Team MVPs: Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Stephen Drew
A Drag on the Payroll: Eric Byrnes (209/272/369, 52 G, $6 MM)
What Went Right:

2008 NL Central in Review

Chicago Cubs

W-L: 97-64 (1st in NL Central)

pW-pL: 98-63
Payroll: $118,345,833 (3rd in NL)

R/G: 5.31 (1st in NL)

ERA: 3.87 (T-2nd in NL)

DER: .703 (1st in NL)

Team MVPs: Ryan Dempster, Aramis Ramirez, Geovany Soto

A Drag on the Payroll: Kosuke Fukudome (257/359/379, $6 MM), Jason Marquis (4.53 ERA in 167 IP, $6.4 MM), Bobby Howry (5.35 ERA in 70.2 IP, $4 MM)

What Went Right:

2008 NL East In Review

Atlanta Braves

W-L: 72-90 (4th in NL East)

pW-pL: 79-83
Payroll: $102,365,683 (4th in NL)
R/G: 4.65 (6th in NL)
ERA: 4.47 (12th in NL)
DER: .692 (T-8th in NL)
Team MVPs: Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, Mark Teixeira, Jair Jurrjens
A Drag on the Payroll: Tom Glavine (5.54 ERA, 63,1 IP, $8 MM), Mike Hampton (4.85 ERA, 78 IP, $15 MM)
Defensive Stars: Mark Teixeira, Kelly Johnson, Yunel Escobar
What Went Right:

Weaver on Strategy

It's been about a year since I first read Earl Weaver's book on managerial strategy (written with Terry Pluto). I kept meaning to blog about it, because it was so very interesting and pertinent. But I kept forgetting about it. I didn't include it with my general blog on baseball books, and so it just got buried on my desk. But it's worth going back and taking a look at this book, because there's so much in there that's fascinating about baseball, analysis, and Weaver himself.

I made a series of notes, underlined a series of passages, and even made a few big stars next to some parts of the book. So let's go back and see what I thought the big deal was.

World Series Predictions

Rays .vs. Phillies

Offense
The Phillies' offense is centered around a core group of star hitters (Utley, Howard, and Burrell) with a strong 1-2 leadoff tandem in Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino. It's a group that was remarkably productive against two very tough pitching staffs in the NLDS and NLCS. Their weakness is lineup depth; the bottom of the lineup, with the exception of Jayson Werth, if he's not batting second, is very poor. Carlos Ruiz is a good catcher, and Pedro Feliz is a good-glove third baseman, but both are barely above replacement level offensively.
The Rays have a somewhat different problem. They don't have superstar power like the Phillies do (although that's arguable, considering what Longoria and Upton are doing), but they have a much greater depth. The Rays don't often give up on offense from a lineup spot, except for shortstop Jason Bartlett.
Before the postseason, I think I would have given the edge to the Phillies. But now I'm not as certain. The Rays have really done a good job of scoring runs. Even if they don't keep setting home run records, they've got a top-notch offense with star-quality production. And here's what really gives them the edge:

Bench/DH
If the Rays start Rocco Baldelli in right, that leaves either Cliff Floyd, Gabe Gross, or Jonny Gomes as DH. The Phillies don't have anyone remotely comparable to counter with. Their best bet would be Matt Stairs, who would do well against righties but would need a platoon partner (one the Phils don't have) against lefties. And postseason heroics aside, Stairs isn't as good as Cliff Floyd. This gives the Rays a much better set of options, especially in the later innings, and I think it's what gives them the edge on offense.

Starting Pitching

Momentum is Bunk

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. Maybe then someone will listen to me.
Rays win, I was wrong, and I'll be back with my World Series predictions tomorrow.

Not again . . .

The MLBPA is going to be filing a grievance against baseball for colluding against Barry Bonds this season. I'd expressed doubts about this before, simply because I thought the owners were too intelligent and/or too self-interested to collude against Bonds. I also felt that, unlike previous collusion scandals, the potential gain was far, far too low to offset the risk of legal action.
But never underestimate major league baseball owners.

Quick Look at Attendance

Now I have neither the time nor the resources to do a comprehensive examination of MLB attendance in 2008. But I'll do what I can with the information available to me:

(First number is raw attendance figure; second number is % change -- increase or decrease -- from 2007 season)

American League
1. New York Yankees -- 4,298,655 (0.6% increase)
2. Los Angeles Angels -- 3,336,747 (0.8% decrease)
3. Detroit Tigers -- 3,202,645 (5.1% increase)
4. Boston Red Sox -- 3,048,250 (1.7% increase)
5. Chicago White Sox -- 2,500,648 (6.8% decrease)
6. Toronto Blue Jays -- 2,399,786 (1.7% increase)
7. Seattle Mariners -- 2,329,702 (13.8% decrease)
8. Minnesota Twins -- 2,302,431 (0.3% increase)
9. Cleveland Indians -- 2,169,760 (4.7% decrease)
10. Baltimore Orioles -- 1,950,075 (9.9% decrease)
11. Texas Rangers -- 1,945,677 (17.3% decrease)
12. Tampa Bay Rays -- 1,811,986 (30.6% increase)
13. Oakland Athletics -- 1,665,256 (13.4% decrease)
14. Kansas City Royals -- 1,578,922 (2.3% decrease)

Thoughts:

Purely Optional

As the postseason nears its end, let's take a look at options still pending on player contracts. Some of them will play a big part on a team's future in 2009. And just as important, a team's action based on these options will tell us a lot about the team's game plan for the approaching 2008-2009 off-season. (Note: I'm not including players whose options have already been picked up or declined).
(The source for all option and contract info is the invaluable website Cot's Baseball Contracts.)

EVERYDAY PLAYERS

Garret Anderson (LF/DH), Los Angeles Angels

2009 Age: 37

2009 Option: $14 MM club option; $3 MM buyout

Anderson's reached that unfortunate age where he can't field well enough to play the outfield and can't hit well enough to DH. Somebody a little crazy might put him in the outfield, but I bet he comes back to the Angels, even if they decline his option.

Hank Blalock (3B), Texas Rangers

2009 Age: 28

2009 Option: $6.2 MM club option; $250K buyout

Javier Vazquez: Big Game Pitcher?

It's rare that a manager calls out one of his own pitchers as not being able to "win the big game." But that's what Ozzie Guillen did to Javier Vazquez. From the article:

''What you see is what you get,'' Guillen said of Vazquez. ''Javy is going to be Javy. I just want him to be aggressive, throw the ball over the plate and knock somebody on their [butt]. That's a big three games for us.
''You have to be mean. Go out there and show them we show up to play, show up to kick your guys' [butts]. And believe me, that will take care of itself."

Yes, Ozzie. Kick a little ass, and those fastballs and curveballs will work out just fine. I hope to GOD he doesn't actually believe that. :sigh:

NLCS Game 3 Running Commentary

Pre-Game

• I mentioned yesterday that even though the Phillies are up 2-0, the Dodgers have a chance to take control at Dodger Stadium. Even though Moyer and Kuroda are very similar pitchers, which should make for an interesting match-up. The Phillies especially are able to take advantage of pitchers who don't get strikeouts.
• Jeanie Zelasko: "Is this a must win?"
  I will give $100 to the first announcer who answers this by just saying, "No."
• Both Kennedy and Grace are practically guaranteeing a win for the Dodgers. Why don't they just collectively fellate Joe Torre, Manny Ramirez, and Nomar Garciaparra (who is, unfortunately, starting tonight). Speaking of which:
• STARTING LINEUPS:
  Phillies: 1. Rollins, SS 2. Victorino, CF 3. Utley, 2B 4. Howard, 1B 5. Burrell, LF 6. Werth, RF 7. Feliz, 3B 8. Ruiz, C 9. Moyer, P
  It's amazing to me that the Phillies have gotten so much production from Ruiz and their pitchers. Talk about best-case scenario. And here's hoping that they put "third baseman" at the top of their offseason wish list, because Pedro Felix ain't it.
  Even though I favor the Dodgers, I chafe at Kennedy & Grace for their outright dismissal of the Phillies.
• Dodgers: 1. Furcal, SS 2. Ethier, RF 3. Ramirez, LF 4. Martin, C 5. Garciaparra, 1B 6. Blake, 3B 7. Kemp, CF 8. DeWitt, 2B 9. Kuroda, P
  Yeah, guys, this is the better lineup. I like them 1-4, but they've got some punchless guys at the bottom of the order, Kemp excepted. The Phillies' offensive advantage is their best bet. At least Torre left DeWitt in their for defense, since Kuroda gives up so many balls in play. Moyer is the same, and defense should play a bit part of the game tonight.
  

LIVE BLOG TONIGHT!

I'll be blogging and discussing Game 3 of the NLCS live tonight. I'll be commenting on the game, the announcers, the ambience, etc. and publishing live (or as close to live as Blogger allows).

Belated NLCS Predictions / ALCS Comments

So at the end of every year, I take all of the individual and team baseball statistics and churn them. It's a lot like working with butter and the cramping's the same. Unfortunately, I decided to churn the AL before I churned the NL. So I didn't finish churning the NL until midway through Game 2 of the NLCS last night.
Well, my original prediction probably would have been Dodgers in 7. Or Phillies in 7. I'm still not sure which way I would have gone. Besides, making a prediction now would be a lame exercise, since the Phillies took the first two in grand style. Game 2, especially, was pretty captivating. It's high time we saw another LCS go 7 games.
So in lieu of my NLCS predictions, here are a few comments and observations:

A Fourth Year?

Just a quick note -- I'd like to celebrate a happy 3rd anniversary for this blog. It doesn't seem that long ago, but it's been quite something. If you want to get nostalgic, click the archives on the left side of the page, or just go straight to my first entry, a look at the division series three postseasons ago.

ALCS Preview

ALCS: Red Sox .vs. Rays

Offense

During the season, the Sox ranked 2nd in the AL with a .279 Equivalent Average (EqA). But the Rays were right behind them in 3rd place at .274.
Both teams have strong offensive attacks, but they'll also be working without some key producers. The Red Sox are dealing with a gimpy J.D. Drew and will be without Mike Lowell. Drew's replacement is either Coco Crisp or Mark Kotsay, which is a step down, but not too bad. The worst thing is that with Lowell gone, the Sox have been playing Kevin Youkilis at third and Kotsay at first. I know they don't have a wealth of options, but "Mark Kotsay, first baseman" doesn't give me a lot of confidence.
The Rays, too, will be running at less than 100%. Carl Crawford has just come back from injury, and although he appears to be in good shape, it's hard to tell so soon. The same could be said of B.J. Upton, although Upton acquitted himself pretty darn well in the division series.
Overall, I still have to give the edge to the Sox, since their best hitters (Youkilis, Pedroia, Bay, Ortiz) are better than the Rays' best (Pena, Longoria, Upton, Navarro). They also have greater depth and a better bench; few teams could handle a hobbled J.D. Drew and a hobbled Mike Lowell so well.

Starting Pitching

Ode to a Grecian Computer (or a Dell, whichever)

My computer may be dead.
Well, the computer itself is OK; but Windows is screwed and the computer guy says he should be able to save most of the documents, etc. But Windows itself is probably toast along with the programs and applications.
Luckily, (and let's take a BIG breath there) I've backed up most of my documents. I say MOST with some regret, as I haven't backed them up in a month or so. But my biggest concern is the 100 or so files of baseball stat work that I've done, and those are mostly safe.
The biggest problem is the applications; it never really occurred to me to back up applications. With most of my software, I still have the CD to reinstall it, but some of it (including my favorite baseball sims) I downloaded online and didn't ever think to back up.
I guess everyone has a sad computer crash story to tell; it's just my luck (or such) that it hasn't happened to me yet. And there's still some hope that my good ol' Dell can be salvaged.
I say this as an excuse; it's October, which is usually my prime blog-writin' time, and I haven't been able to talk about anything yet. I'm typing this on my Mom's computer (which is funny in a Buzz Bissinger sort of way; I'm not writing in my parents' basement, but I am writing on my parents' computer) so my blog won't be as complete, mainly because I'm a creature of habit when it comes to keyboards.

NLDS
Dodgers sweep Cubs