NL West as we near the halfway point

[The first part of this blog was written two days ago. Instead of going through and changing all the stats I mention on account of two freakin' days, I'll just let you know ahead of time that the first part of this blog was written on Tuesday.]
So much can happen in two weeks.

• Seattle GM Bill Bavasi finally got fired, after much lobbying to that effect in this space. Seattle also fired manager John McLaren in what will hopefully be the beginning of a housecleaning in that franchise. It's lucky that the Mariners play in Seattle, because rarely has a team with such a high payroll been so bad.
• The Mets aren't nearly as bad off as the Mariners are, but you wouldn't know that to pick up a paper in the metropolis. The Mets' front office waffled like a tower of Jenga as the media forced them into firing Randolph. Blame the media for being so pugnacious, obnoxious, and ignorant (for a firing that didn't need to happen) and blame the upper levels of team ownership for refusing to take a firm stand to stave off attacks. Randolph was doomed the minute ownership showed that it wasn't ready to fully commit to him, and once the blood was in the water, the media sharks attacked and attacked until the team's already weak resolve was obliterated. It was a very bad showing for a team that isn't nearly as bad as everyone thinks it is, and a poor reflection of what life is like as a baseball figure in New York.
• Toronto also fired its manager, if only to give J.P. Ricciardi more room to fight for his own job (which was in jeopardy before he embarrassed himself on the radio). People in Toronto have much more reason to gripe over Ricciardi's performance, which includes a spotty track record, a sometimes huffy public manner, and the failure to develop even the hint of an offense. This isn't a defense of John Gibbons per se; I think he should have been fired after getting into a physical altercation with a player last season. But firing the manager to save yourself rarely works.

Looking Ahead: Baltimore Orioles

Before we start, a few quick free agent notes, including a few deals I forgot to discuss last week:

• The Dodgers are getting desperate and stupid. It was widely rumored that GM Ned Colletti would panic into giving Nomar Garciaparra a new contract, and he's done exactly that: 2 years and $18.5 million. It's not the contract that bothers me so much, but the fact that the Dodgers don't need him. Colletti has Sabean-itis, a need to sign old guys to take the place of young guys. Two years isn't bad, but you're counting on Garciaparra continuing what was a 2-month hot streak in 2006. He's not going to hit well enough to play first base, which is sad when they've got a cheap rookie (James Loney) who does.
• And now for the really stupid: word is that the Dodgers are about to finalize a 5-year, $45 million deal with Juan Pierre. Excuse me a moment . . .

AAAAAAAAAAGGGGHHH!

• I'm sorry, I was just under the impression that the Dodgers weren't completely f***ing stupid. $9 million a year for 5 years is a deal for a true All-Star. Juan Pierre is NOT an All-Star. He's a career 303/350/377 hitter with poor defense in center who just happens to be very fast. Juan Pierre is someone you can stick in center field who won't hurt you too much. In 2006 with the Cubs, he hit a woeful 292/330/388 and went 58/78 (74%) in steals. He's a below-average hitter, below-average defender and he adds only a handful of bases each year via steals. This deal will be inscribed on Ned Colletti's tombstone, and I'm sorry that we all have to suffer through the slow realization that he's just acquired a giant piece of dead weight on the payroll. The only thing worse will be having to listen to all the mainstream media types talk about what a great signing this is. That kind of thing gives me severe gas.
• The Yankees signed Mike Mussina to a 2-year, $23 million contract. The Yanks need Mussina, and it's good for them that they kept him, but I'm slightly troubled by the contract. Mussina turns 38 in December and has only been healthy and effective once in the past three years. Unfortunately, that kind of money is a bargain in this market, and the Yankees need pitching bad enough to overpay anyways.
• Frank Catalanotto has signed a 3-year, $13 million deal with the Rangers. This is a pretty reasonable deal, although the Rangers will probably have to find a platoon partner for him. Even if they can, it leaves them with the less-than-scary outfield of Catalanotto/Brad Wilkerson/Nelson Cruz.
• The Angels signed reliever Justin Speier to a 4-year deal worth $18 million. Speier is a good relief arm, and I thought some team would nab him and convert him into a closer. But it looks like the Angels want him just to fill out their bullpen. This could mean that they're about to trade someone. Speier's not a bad guy, but I think the Angels should put offense at the top of their shopping list.
• The Reds traded catcher Jason LaRue to Kansas City for a PTBNL. I'm not LaRue's biggest fan, but I don't see who the Reds plan to replace him with. If they think that David Ross' 2006 was for real (255/353/579, compared to a career 231/313/469), they're crazier than they look. The Reds will also pick up part of LaRue's $5 mil. 2007 salary.

And now for a couple deals I forgot to discuss earlier:

• The Chicago Cubs re-signed Aramis Ramirez to a 5-year $70 million deal. It was considered to be less than what Ramirez would have gotten on the free agent market. It's a huge commitment for the Cubs, but it is unfortunately a necessary one if they want to rebuild their offense. Perhaps the Ramirez and Drew incidents will make teams much less likely to include an "out clause" in someone's contract.
• I'll talk more about this below, but the Yankees did indeed trade Jaret Wright to Baltimore for relief pitcher Chris Britton. Even though they'll be paying $4 million of his $7 million salary, it's a good move for the Yankees to cut bait here. They're also getting a good, young, and cheap middle reliever in Britton. I said before that I don't know what the Orioles see in Wright, unless they think pitching coach Leo Mazzone can recapture the magic that propelled Wright to an excellent 2004 season with Atlanta. Although I guess even a pitcher as dodgy as Wright is a bargain for $3 mil.
• The Mets re-signed second baseman Jose Valentin to what appears to be a 1-year, $3 million deal. This is a good move; there aren't any better options out there for such a low price, and the Mets need to save their money to spend on pitching.

For the AL side of my "Looking Ahead" series, I decided to change the format a bit. Instead of splitting it up into "good news" and "bad news," I've decided to just split it into "offense and defense" and "pitching." It wasn't always easy to separate the good from the bad, and the two often ran together so much as to make the distinction arbitrary. I think it makes more sense to just discuss everything together, split into the two halves of player personnel.

And now, having said that, on to the Baltimore Orioles. Uggh.

2006 W-L Record: 70-92
2006 pW-pL Record: 69-93
Runs Scored: 768 (10th of 14 in AL)
Runs Allowed: 899 (13th of 14 in AL)
Free Agents: Bruce Chen, Steve Kline, Kevin Millar, Russ Ortiz

2007 Projected Lineup:
1B -- ??
2B -- Brian Roberts
SS -- Miguel Tejada
3B -- Melvin Mora
LF -- Jeff Fiorentino?
CF -- Corey Patterson
RF -- Nick Markakis
C -- Ramon Hernandez
DH -- Jay Gibbons

2007 Proj. Rotation
Erik Bedard
Kris Benson
Daniel Cabrera
Jaret Wright
Adam Loewen/Rodrigo Lopez/Hayden Penn

2007 Proj. Closer
Chris Ray

Offense/Defense:
The O's have, for several years, been an offense-heavy team with no pitching. Now, they're slowly turning, as their offense gets older. It's been almost a perfect switch, as the team hasn't managed to get both good hitting and pitching on the team at the same time. Their hitters are not only aging (Tejada, Mora), but they've made a few errant free agent signings (i.e. Javier Lopez). Not only that, but they've spent money almost exclusively on offense, and the diminishing returns indicate that it has not been money well spent.
For better or worse, Tejada is still the centerpiece of the team. Rumors are that the O's would like to trade him. I really don't understand why they would want to; Tejada will be just 31 next year and is only under contract for 3 more years (making about $13 mil. per year). He's still one of the best-hitting shortstops in baseball (330/379/498 last year), and although his defense is declining, it's nothing to get alarmed about. I'm flummoxed as to why the Orioles would trade their best player when they have no one to replace him and no pressing reason to get rid of him. For God's sake, he's still one of the 10 or 15 best players in the league! If they want to cut bait on him and pick up prospects, that's one thing. But since when have the Orioles planned for the future?
Another reason they may want to trade him is that he's been clearly unhappy in Baltimore. I can't say that I blame him; it's been hell. The team has sucked, the clubhouse has splintered into factions, and Tejada was caught right in the middle of the Rafael Palmeiro steroid controversy. Not only that, but the front office has been either indifferent or dreadfully incompetent at fielding a winner (thank you, Mr. Angelos). But although Tejada may not be happy in Baltimore, I don't think the Orioles should trade him unless they're getting a really good return.
The other reason they shouldn't trade him is that there's no one to replace him, and the lineup would really miss him. While there is hope for the pitching staff in the future, there is little for the offense, as their 10th-place finish in runs scored last year would suggest.
The only real star on the team after Tejada is young Nick Markakis. Markakis is widely considered to be one of the best hitting prospects in the game, and he should be in the Baltimore outfield for at least 5 more seasons. Markakis had a strong debut in 2006, hitting 291/351/448 in his rookie year, and should improve upon that much more in the years to come.
But alas, there isn't much depth behind those two to encourage Oriole fans. It looked like the team was going to cut bait on 34-year-old Melvin Mora, which would be a good move given Mora's declining offense (274/342/391 in '06). But alas, they were pressured into giving him a terrible contract extension: 3 years and $25 million. So Mora will be stinking up the Oriole lineup for a while yet, barring an unlikely comeback from last year's decline.
The Orioles have gotten some solid contribution from other places that should at least give the lineup some stability for the near future. Catcher Ramon Hernandez was very overpaid on the free agent market, but he's at least done well enough to partially justify it (275/343/479 last year), especially if he can stay healthy and durable (144 games in '06). Second baseman Brian Roberts isn't the MVP candidate he looked like in 2005; he's more likely the above-average contributor we saw in '06 (286/347/410). The O's even got good returns from Corey Patterson (276/314/443) who was at least solid and relatively cheap. The trade picking up Patterson (for Jerry Hairston, Jr.) was an uncharacteristically shrewd one by Baltimore management.
The club also has DH Jay Gibbons, who is a good hitter, but was also given another ill-advised contract extension. Gibbons is an "old-player skills" kind of guy -- a career 263/319/464 with good power but little athleticism. The O's have gotten good work from him in the past for little money, but instead of leaving the table while they were ahead, they gave Gibbons a 4-year (!) extension for $21.1 million. It's not a lot of money, but the contract should run longer than Gibbons can stay effective; his type of player falls quickly after age 30.
The O's still have several holes to fill in the lineup. They tried Kevin Millar as their first baseman last year, which wasn't nearly as laughable as everyone expected (272/374/437). Hopefully, they won't tempt fate again on him, as he'll be 35 next year. They also need another outfielder -- or a DH, if they can stomach Gibbons' defense.
The O's need good hitters to fill the first base and left field slots. Hopefully, they'll actually get good hitters and not fall into the Cubs trap of buying something just because it's expensive.

Pitching:
While the team continues to wallow in misery, grumpiness, and utter mediocrity, there are some signs that the pitching staff is getting better. Leo Mazzone didn't turn straw into gold his first year in Baltimore, but I've always maintained that it may take a while to see noticeable results from Mazzone's system, especially since he's bringing it to a new team. There's a lot of potential in the starting rotation, but Orioles fans would be wise to be pessimistic.
Erik Bedard is the classic "keep him healthy and he's great" pitcher. Bedard had a full run in 2006, throwing 196.1 innings with a fine 3.76 ERA. It's wishful thinking to call him an "ace," but he is the best pitcher on the Baltimore staff, and that's not the dubious compliment it once was.
Behind Bedard is Daniel Cabrera. Cabrera is another archetype: if he ever gets control, he'll be great. Cabrera throws some nasty-looking pitches. At times he is dominant, and at other times he pitches like he just stepped off a roller coaster. After a disappointing rookie year in 2004, Cabrera stepped forward by nearly doubling his strikeout rate (from 76 to 157 in about 15 more innings), lowering his ERA to 4.52. Better yet, the increased strikeout rate didn't affect his walk rate, which was still very high, but not dangerously so.
2006 was his first season under Leo Mazzone, and unfortunately, Cabrera's performance took a step back. His walk rate rose (104 in 148 IP) much more than his strikeout rate, and he again proved incapable of going deep into ballgames. Cabrera averaged barely 5 2/3 innings per start, which is great from a 5th starter -- not from a potential ace. He's started 27, 29, and 26 games in his career and never topped 162 innings. It's beginning to look like Cabrera is a bigger mess than even Mazzone can clean up.
With Kris Benson and Rodrigo Lopez, the Orioles have two reliable sources of innings -- it's just that the innings aren't that good. Benson's first year in the AL saw him post a 4.82 ERA in 183 innings of work with a dreadful 58:88 BB:K ratio. Lopez set a career high with a 5.90 ERA in 189 innings. Lopez has always walked the line; the line where your durability is either an asset or a liability. He can't be counted on for anything but replacement-level innings.
The trade of Jaret Wright does give the team another alternative. After a terrible 2005 in New York, Wright rebounded with what was, all things considerd, not such a bad year. His ERA was a tolerable 4.49. However, he was still limited to just 140.1 IP and posted a dismal 57:84 BB:K ratio. Wright might be able to provide better-quality innings than Lopez, but unless Mazzone can work his magic again, Wright will just be taking up space.
And the worst part is that the Orioles have a couple young pitchers who deserve a shot in the rotation. Adam Loewen moved quickly through the minors before reaching Baltimore in 2006. His big-league numbers were pretty poor (5.37 ERA, 62:98 BB:K ratio in 112.1 IP), and his minor league numbers don't make him look like a star, either. But he's a cheaper alternative than guys like Wright and probably deserves a shot.
Hayden Penn got the call to the majors in 2005, but wasn't ready. He spent most of 2006 at Triple-A Ottawa and now appears to have earned a shot in the bigs. Granted, his 2006 cup of coffee was a disaster (15.10 ERA in 6 starts), but he's still valuable. Teams like Baltimore shouldn't take for granted the cheap, major-league ready arms they have in their own system.

Offseason Game Plan:
The O's are rumored to be big players in the Carlos Lee sweepstakes. Unfortunately, I just don't see that one ending well for Baltimore. Lee would provide good power, but he's another unathletic guy who probably shouldn't be signed long-term. Lee turns 31 next year, and it sounds like he'll get at least a 5-year deal worth something like $15 mil. a year.
It's very tempting to try and solve all of your problems by writing one check, but it's also a quick way to dig your hole even deeper. Lee would likely be worth the money for a year or two, but I doubt it would be worth subsidizing his age 36 or 37 season for MVP-money. It would also keep the club on the wrong side of Father Time; if anything, they should be pursuing J.D. Drew, a not-so-flashy guy who's probably a sounder investment, especially over the long term.
There's not much the team can do to improve their offense over the short run. They're stuck with a a few solid players and a few millstones, and really can't afford to add to the latter. The club either needs to get younger or try to contend now without spending money recklessly. But that's a faint hope in Baltimore, where reckless spending might as well be Peter Angelos' nickname.

Looking Ahead: Los Angeles Dodgers

2006 W-L Record: 88-74
2006 pW-pL Record: 87-75
Runs Scored: 820 (4th in NL)
Runs Allowed: 751 (3rd in NL)
Free Agents: Nomar Garciaparra, Kenny Lofton, Julio Lugo, Greg Maddux
Pending Options: Jose Cruz, Jr., Eric Gagne

2007 Projected Lineup:
1B -- James Loney
2B -- Jeff Kent
SS -- Rafael Furcal
3B -- Andy LaRoche/Wilson Betemit
LF -- Matt Kemp
CF -- Andre Ethier
RF -- J.D. Drew
C -- Russell Martin

2007 Proj. Rotation:
Brad Penny
Derek Lowe
Chad Billingsley
Hong-Chih Kuo
Aaron Sele/Brett Tomko/Mark Hendrickson

2007 Proj. Closer: Takashi Saito

The Good News:
Just about everything is good news in L.A. these days. They've made the playoffs two of the past three years, and despite getting thumped in the NLDS, it's a start for a team that had suffered through an 8-year postseason drought. They've got one of the best youth movements about to reach the majors and should blow the top off of the NL West, and possibly even the National League.
In the infield, the Dodgers will be sporting star prospects at the infield corners. The team could decide to re-sign 2006 star Nomar Garciaparra (303/367/505), but Nomar became expendable with the arrival of James Loney. Loney, who will be 23 next year, moved steadily up the Dodger minor league system before enjoying a breakout year at Triple-A Las Vegas. Now a lot of hitters have breakout years in hitter-friendly Las Vegas, but Loney's numbers (380/426/546) are impressive even in context. Upon promotion to the majors, he hit 284/342/559, which is probably a better indication of his talent level. Loney has shown great power potential and surprisingly good plate discipline. The Dodgers should -- and probably will -- go with Loney as their starting first baseman and reap the benefits (while paying him the league minimum).
At third base, the Dodgers will likely be starting Andy LaRoche, younger brother of Braves first baseman Adam LaRoche. LaRoche has shown great power and great plate discipline in the minors, climbing steadily through the Dodger system until reaching Triple-A last year. LaRoche started the season in Double-A and earned a promotion by hitting 309/419/483. He spent the second half of the season in Triple-A Vegas, hitting a dynamic 322/400/550. There are some questions about LaRoche's defense at the hot corner, but he does seem to be making some progress there. And with Bill Mueller essentially retired due to injuries, LaRoche is by far the Dodgers' best option at third, having proven all he can prove in the minors. The only thing that might get in LaRoche's way is Wilson Betemit, but it's in the Dodgers' best interests to go with the high-ceiling player in LaRoche rather than settle for the merely above-average Betemit.
In the middle infield, the Dodgers are set with two key free agents. Jeff Kent was not supposed to age this gracefully in L.A, and yet that's exactly what he's done. Although he was limited to 115 games, the potential Hall-of-Famer hit an impressive 292/385/477 and continued to give the club solid performance at second. His advancing age could be an issue (he'll turn 39 in March), but the club has the advantage of several options in the infield.
At shortstop is 2006 free agent signee Rafael Furcal. Furcal got off to a terribly slow start in 2006. Six weeks into the season, he was hitting a bare 235/337/315, never a way to endear yourself to the locals after signing a big free agent deal. But Furcal caught fire down the stretch and finished with a vintage Rafael Furcal season: 300/369/445, 37/50 in steals, and great defense at short. Furcal is a huge asset and a solid presence on a young team that's still assigning roles and finding its rhythm.
The outfield is anchored by right fielder J.D. Drew. Drew is another big free agent. In his debut season of 2005, Drew spent a lot of time on the DL (as was his M.O.) and led many to dub his signing a failure. But Drew bounced back with a healthy season in 2006, playing in 146 games (2nd on the team to Furcal) and hitting a powerful 283/393/498. Drew was by far the best hitter on a Dodger team that was missing an impact, power bat. His continued presence will be a true asset -- so long as he can stay healthy.
The other two outfield spots will likely go to Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier. Both men are capable of playing left and center, but Kemp's size will likely see him end up in left, with the more athletic Ethier in center. Ethier got off to a hot start in 2006 before settling down somewhat, although his final line of 308/365/477 is impressive enough. Many feel that Ethier was hitting over his head in 2006, but even 80% of that production combined with good defense in center would make him an asset on a team that should have plenty of offense elsewhere.
As you can tell, the Los Angeles lineup has a lot of young talent, but Matt Kemp might be the best hitter of them all. Kemp rose steadily through the L.A. system, making it to the majors in 2006. He started the season in Double-A and earned a promotion by hitting 327/402/528. In Triple-A, Kemp mashed to the tune of 368/428/560, which earned him a call to the majors. His debut in L.A. was a bit of a letdown; in 52 games, he hit a disappointing 253/289/448. However, Kemp has a strong minor league pedigree and every indication of being a heck of a hitting prospect. He should start 2007 in the Dodger outfield, barring some sort of freak accident.
At catcher, the Dodgers have young Russell Martin. Martin was supposed to be behind resident Dioner Navarro on the team's depth chart. But Martin hit 282/355/436 in 2006, claiming the job for his own and prompting the team to trade Navarro to the Devil Rays. Martin will be just 24 next year and has already earned strong praise for his defensive skill and strong offensive potential.

Pitching-wise, the Dodgers may not have as many blue-chip prospects on the way, but they've got a strong core of free agent veterans and some promising rookies that should supplement them nicely. The team's nominal ace is 28-year-old Brad Penny. Penny is easily the most promising pitcher on the team, but his inconsistency and injury troubles make him tough to predict. Penny was pitching his way into the Cy Young discussion in 2006, but poor health and bad luck brought him down to a final 4.33 ERA in just 189 innings. The good news is that even when Penny's off, he's still a quality pitcher. The bad news is that the Dodgers would like to get a glimpse of the ace they thought they were trading for.
Behind Penny is the surprisingly effective Derek Lowe. Lowe could not have picked a better destination as a free agent than Los Angeles. As a sinkerballer who allows a lot of balls in play, Lowe benefits both from the roomy dimensions of Dodger Stadium and a strong defense behind him. When the Dodgers signed defensive whiz Furcal to play shortstop, Lowe should have offered to pick up 5% of his salary. Despite only striking out 123 hitters in 218 innings, Lowe managed a team-best ERA of 3.63, only slightly worse than his 3.61 mark from last year. Los Angeles was the perfect fit for Derek Lowe, and he's gone a long way toward repaying the team's considerable investment in him.
Neither Penny nor Lowe will realistically be pitching like an ace in 2007, but both are strongly above-average pitchers who could end up one of the 10 best pitchers in the league if everything goes right. Behind them, the Dodgers will be trying out some rookie options in the rotation. 22-year-old Chad Billingsley may have had some control issues in the minors, but everything else about him was golden. Baseball Prospectus 2006 described him thusly: "Two words: 'potential' and 'stud.'" It's hard to disagree. Billingsley's baptism into the big leagues in 2006 was pretty rough; his 3.80 ERA belied a dismal 58:59 BB:K ratio in his 90 innings of work. But if his minor league track record is to be believed, Billingsley should have no trouble filling in the #3 slot in the rotation and should move up to #1 before too very long.
Hong-Chih Kuo was supposed to be a relief pitcher, especially after two Tommy John surgeries left him looking like a Taiwanese Frankenstein. But Kuo still had great stuff and a lot of potential, so the Dodgers used him in some spot starts and liked what they saw. In his 59.2 innings of big-league work last year, Kuo struck out 71 batters and gave up just 3 home runs. If he can handle the strain, the Dodgers may well decide to keep him in the rotation. If not, he'd be one hell of a middle reliever with the versatility to work long relief and make a spot start or two.
If those guys are the 1-4 of the rotation, then the Dodgers shouldn't be too worried about having to sift through Brett Tomko, Aaron Sele, and Mark Hendrickson for the #5 job. Word is that the Dodgers will be aggressive on the free agent market. Peter Gammons reported today that the Dodgers would like to sign Jason Schmidt and re-sign Greg Maddux. This seems like overkill to me; Schmidt may have more upside than anyone else in the rotation, but he's also getting older and more volatile; he could easily end up being a much more expensive version of Brad Penny. The Maddux signing makes more sense; he could fill in at #4 and eat up innings in a ballpark well-suited to his declining talents.
In the bullpen, the Dodgers are equally blessed. 36-year-old Takashi Saito isn't a rookie sensation; he's a Japanese League veteran who put in possibly the most dominant relief performance in the NL this year. In spite of his age, Saito's great showing makes the Dodgers even less likely to pick up Eric Gagne's big-money option. Behind Saito, the Dodgers have the excellent Jonathan Broxton and the surprisingly effective Joe Beimel. There's not a lot of depth here, as the bullpen has experienced some serious attrition in recent years; GM Ned Colletti will probably address this issue in the offseason.

The Bad News:
Umm . . . didn't I just cover everything? Okay. Well, a few short points, then.
One problem with adding so many young players in such a short period of time is that it's difficult to count on them all to start producing at once. I'm not questioning the minor league pedigree of guys like LaRoche, Loney, and Kemp, but it would be naive to expect them all to play to their potential in 2007. It wouldn't be surprising at all for one of them to stall, or to take a bit longer to develop than expected. This makes it harder to predict exactly where the Dodgers fall on the talent scale.
There should also be some concern about the Dodger pitching. They've got several good arms coming up from the minors, but it's hard to be too optimistic about L0we and Penny. Also, that group of #5 starters is going to cost a lot of money for what little production they can give the team. Let's hope that Colletti gives the talented youngsters a chance and doesn't invest too much misguided faith in the likes of Mark Hendrickson.
Which brings me to my main point. GM Colletti took over the Dodgers prior to the 2006 season and inherited one of the best farm systems in baseball (thanks to the incomporable Logan White, Scouting Director). And since then, Colletti has . . . well, I won't say that he's pissed it away, but he's been far too careless with it.
Since taking the job, Colletti has traded away valuable prospects Willy Aybar, Dioner Navarro, Joel Guzman, Chuck Tiffany, and Justin Ruggiano. To a certain extent, I can understand this. Colletti has surplus talent, and when you have that, you trade it away to fill your needs. That's simple. The disturbing thing is not just that Colletti has been a little too willing to trade away his talent, but that he's gotten so little in return.
In 2006, the Dodgers had issues in the middle infield, with injuries to Jeff Kent and Bill Mueller creating holes in the lineup. The Dodgers were forced to use guys like Ramon Martinez, Olmedo Saenz and Cesar Izturis more than was healthy for them. So to fill the gaps, Colletti traded away several of his young middle infield prospects. Now, wait a minute -- wouldn't that be a possible solution to the problem? Guys like Willy Aybar and Joel Guzman may not have been major league ready, but they could have solved the problem, yes? And why would you trade away middle infield prospects in order to get middle infield non-prospects?
Good question. Because Colletti sent away Aybar, Guzman, and a few others to get Julio Lugo from the Devil Rays . . . and Wilson Betemit from the Braves. Now the Dodgers had too many middle infielders, with Lugo especially stuck on the bench as the odd man out, an inexcusable position for a player of his talents (and salary). The Dodgers were forced to trade Izturis to the Cubs, although Colletti wisely managed to trade away the most overvalued of all his middle infielders.
But that wasn't nearly as odd as another trade made with the Devil Rays. This trade sent catcher Navarro and spot starter Jae Seo to the Devil Rays for catcher Toby Hall and pitcher Mark Hendrickson. Now as I said before, I can certainly understand trading away expendable players, and Navarro was indeed expendable with the arrival of Russell Martin. But, as I said in my blog at the time, are there two less desirable players in all of baseball than Hall and Hendrickson? And if your problem is that you have too many catchers, why would you trade away one of them just to get another catcher, one who was much worse and much more expensive and due to leave as a free agent after the season? And why would you exchange one fifth starter (Seo) for an older, more expensive fifth starter (Hendrickson) who is, if anything, slightly less valuable? I still don't know what the f*** Colletti was smoking to make this head-scratcher of a trade.
The thing that troubles me is that this could be part of an overall strategy. When I heard that Colletti, formerly an assistant under Brian Sabean of the Giants, was going to be taking over the Dodgers system, my first thought was that they should nail down all of their prospects to keep them from getting traded away. The Giants (as I'll speak more about later) are one of the oldest teams in baseball, a team that has consistently signed older and less reliable players for lots of money while letting their farm system deteriorate. That this was the team that Colletti came from was not insignificant. And while Colletti hasn't traded away the farm system for expensive 35-year-olds yet, his actions during his first year in office are enough to make Dodger fans nervous.
I'd like to think that Ned Colletti recognizes the wonderful gift he's been given in this glorious farm system. I'd also like to think that he's too intelligent to screw it up by going after worthless, expensive veterans. And while there's no reason to panic yet, the Mark Hendrickson trade is enough to raise some eyebrows. Let's hope that Colletti nurtures this crop of young talent like a gentle rain rather than a plague of locusts.

Offseason Game Plan:
Ned: If there's a part of you that's still connected to your former boss, Mr. Sabean, disconnect it now before you overspend on a frivolous old geezer free agent. Your core talent base is there; your lineup only needs some bench support to continue as one of the best in the league. You could use a better arm in the starting rotation as well as some bullpen help, but resist the urge to paying a million billion dollars to the likes of Eddie Guardado and Roberto Hernandez. Do your best to exploit the talent in your farm system; it should always be your first option, because it will always be the cheapest.
You've been handed a collection of fine china. Your job is simple: don't drop it.