A.L. West Off-Season: Team by Team

Los Angeles Angels

Nov. 6:  Angels re-sign Bobby Abreu to a two-year contract worth $19 MM, with a vesting option for 2012.
Abreu’s $5 million contract for 2009 was (over-)reported as the biggest bargain of the offseason.  And it may have been.  Abreu brought much-needed plate discipline (.390 OBP) to a team that has never actively sought high-OBP players.
The snag is that Abreu has gone from under- to over-rated very quickly.  His power is basically gone.  He hasn’t hit more than 30 homers since 2001, and hasn’t hit more than 20 since 2005.  His 15 blasts in 2009 are a more accurate predictor of his future.
Granted, when combined with an excellent approach at the plate, 15 homers is enough.  The more immediate problem is Abreu’s declining defense.  He wasn’t as good as his reputation in his younger days and is quickly degenerating to designated-hitter status.  If that day comes in the next two years, it will be the Angels’ problem to deal with.  Because if his on-base skills slip, he could end up being a below-average DH.
The lesson here is that the same player who’s a bargain at 1/$5MM may not be one at 2/$19MM.

Dec. 16:  Angels sign Hideki Matsui to a one-year contract worth $6 million.

AL West Preview: Angels and Demons

My Prediction:
1st: Los Angeles Angels
2nd: Oakland Athletics
3rd: Texas Rangers
4th: Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Angels

The only team that needed Mark Teixeira more than the Yankees was the Angels. With the injuries to Vladimir Guerrero, the Angels just don't have an impact bat anymore – period. They finished 10th in the AL in runs scored last year, and that was with half a season of Teixeira hitting 358/449/632*. Their 100-62 record in 2008 disguised a roster whose Pythagorean record was a disappointing 88-74. Stuck in a division with two of the best farm systems – Oakland and Texas – churning out prospects left and right, there's no room for disappointment.

Hollid-A

Color me surprised. The Rockies have agreed (in principle) to trade star outfielder Matt Holliday to the Oakland A's for Huston Street, Greg Smith, and outfield prospect Carlos Gonzalez.
The biggest shock, to me, is that the A's are in the market at all. After trading away Dan Haren and Joe Blanton last year, it seemed pretty clear that they were aiming to rebuild in 2009. What has changed since then to make them think they can contend in 2009? As far as I can tell, nothing. The A's had the worst offense in the AL last year. With Holliday, whoopee, they can move up to 10th or 11th. Now everyone's talking about them getting even better, perhaps going after a free agent or two.
I'm skeptical.

AL West Preview

Los Angeles Angels
2007 W-L: 94-68
2007 pW-pL: 90-72
Strengths: Pitching staff, Vlad Guerrero
Weaknesses: Overpaid $50 million+ outfield, lack of offensive punch
Biggest Change from '07: Torii Hunter and Jon Garland
One Reason:

One reason the Angels will win in '08 is that no team in the division is within 10 wins of them.

One reason the Angels will lose in '08 is if they change divisions.
Notes:
The $50 million outfield referred to above is Torii Hunter ($16MM), Vladimir Guerrero ($14.5MM), Garret Anderson ($12MM) and Gary Matthews, Jr. ($9MM). Hunter is signed for 4 more years, Matthews for 3 more, and Guerrero and Anderson have 1-year club options for 2009. This pretty pickle means that somebody (Anderson and/or Guerrero) will play DH, sharing time with Juan Rivera (who's making just a little more than $2MM). Here's how these guys did last year, listed with their age in the forthcoming 2008 season:

State of the MLB Union . . . AL West

Before I get to the AL West, a few observations about some baseball games I'm watching on this lazy Saturday afternoon:

• The Pirates just beat the Brewers 7-4. This leaves the Brewers just 1/2 game ahead of the Cubs atop the NL Central. The NL Central race between the Cubs and Brewers looks like it's going right down to the wire. Luckily, the Cubs finish up their season in Cincinnati, so (if it's not sold out) I might get the opportunity to see some history made at the GABP.
  The Pirates telecasts are very odd. They have a lot of product placements, but the most puzzling one by far is the Etch-a-Sketch renderings of the players as they come up to bat. Does this mean that most of the Pirates' audience is 5 years old? It would help explain all the empty seats at PNC Park -- I think they actually ran out of people to show in the crowd shots.
  I'll be doing another entry soon, weighing in with my opinions and predictions about the various division races. Although it's getting clearer and clearer who's going to the postseason, and there aren't a lot of really fascinating races left.
• The White Sox are leading the Indians 5-1 after five innings, beating up on Jake Westbrook. I don't worry about the Indians, who have a pretty safe lead in the AL Central. Their only competition is Detroit, who will be without Jeremy Bonderman now.
• The Royals are beating the Twins 4-0. Boy, the Twins were one of my big misses in my preseason predictions. And Gil Meche is pitching a pretty nifty game. I must admit that Meche's contract hasn't been as disastrous as I anticipated, but I stand by my opinion that the deal will be a poor one. It's great that Meche is having such a good year, but will it really continue?

And now, on to the AL West.

Los Angeles Angels (85-59)

2007 AL West Predictions

AL WEST:

Los Angeles Angels (94-68) 92-96 win range

Oakland Athletics (92-70) 90-94 win range

Texas Rangers (84-78) 82-86 win range

Seattle Mariners (72-90) 70-74 win range

LOS ANGELES ANGELS

2006 W-L Record: 89-73 (2nd)

2006 pW-pL Record: 84-78

2007 Projection: 94-68

Strengths: Pitching staff; young hitters, Vlad Guerrero
Weaknesses: Impact hitters; offensive depth

Biggest Change from '06: Their top rookies are either in the majors (Weaver, Kendrick) or getting close (Wood)

One Reason:

One Reason the Angels will win in '07 is that their pitching staff is top-notch. The Angels are heading into 2007 with probably the best starting rotation staff in the league. They don't have a big ace (although John Lackey is underrated), but they've got several guys strongly above-average, such as Lackey, Jered Weaver, Kelvim Escobar and Ervin Santana. Bartolo Colon will take the #5 spot, and although he has the potential to perform well, it's doubtful given his health status. Either way, the Angels' starting rotation should give them a chance to win every night, even with their offense.

One Reason the Angels will lose in '07 is -- speaking of that offense . . . The Angels' lineup consists of Vlad Guerrero and a lot of hope. Their other veterans are either expensive guys who are vaguely productive (Gary Matthews, Jr., Orlando Cabrera) or guys with little left to offer (Garret Anderson, Shea Hillenbrand). They do have some quality guys like Juan Rivera and Chone Figgins who have already established themselves in the majors. But the lineup will succeed or fail based on the success of the young talent. And judging from the past couple years, that's not much to hang your hat on.

Notes:

While I'm less than bullish about the Angel's offense, I think their pitching staff can carry them to October. And Mike Scioscia has been able to win with some thin, slap-happy lineups in the past (though none quite this bad).
The other reason I'm picking the Angels to win the division is that I think they're better than the A's, the only other contender in the AL West. Oakland has a more well-rounded ballclub and is certainly capable of repeating as division champions, but they're a worse team than they were last year and still have a lot of questions surrounding their roster, particularly in terms of injuries. So I'm picking the Angels to win by default.

OAKLAND ATHLETICS

2006 W-L Record: 93-69 (1st)
2006 pW-pL Record: 85-77
2007 Projection: 92-70
Strengths: Well-rounded roster; pitching depth

Weaknesses: Thin offense; few star pitchers
Biggest Change from '06: The loss of Barry Zito, followed closely by the loss of Frank Thomas
One Reason:
One Reason the A's will win in '07 is that they've done a great job of overcoming obstacles over the past seven years or so, and there's no better example than 2006. They had a disappointing lineup then with lots of injuries. They also had a pitching staff with good depth, but no real stars. They beat out the Angels last year despite these flaws, and they're perfectly capable of doing it again this year.

One Reason the A's will lose in '07 is that they're just not as good as they were last year, and they can't keep pace with the Angels by moving backwards. I completely agree that Barry Zito is overrated, but he's still a hard guy to replace in your rotation (although a healthy Rich Harden would help). Frank Thomas was an offensive star last year, and it's hard to see the A's making up for his loss, even with the signing of Mike Piazza.
Notes:

The A's would get a big boost if they could keep even half of last year's walking wounded healthy this year. Rich Harden is priority #1, but they also lost a lot when their middle infield went down (as evidenced in the playoffs, when they started D'Angelo Jimenez at second base). Marco Scutaro is a great backup, but he shouldn't be getting more than 300 at bats.
The A's are also counting on some declining stars to fill in the gaps. There's little chance of Jason Kendall or Mark Kotsay turning things around for a career year, even though they're two guys who can at least be counted upon to stay healthy. Esteban Loaiza wasn't that bad in 2006, but he's not going to fill Barry Zito's shoes.
No, as much as I think the A's will be competitive, I don't see them making the postseason.

TEXAS RANGERS

2006 W-L Record: 80-82 (3rd)
2006 pW-pL Record: 86-76
2007 Projection: 84-78
Strengths: Infield offense; stabilized pitching staff

Weaknesses: Outfield offense; quality and depth of pitching staff
Biggest Change from '06: Nothing significant, other than switching out John Danks for Brandon McCarthy
One Reason:
One Reason the Rangers will win in '07 is that the Angels and A's engage in an on-field brawl that results in full-season suspensions for all 50 players involved.

One Reason the Rangers will lose in '07 is that they're simply not as good as the Angels or A's. Their offense is strong, but not as strong as the ballpark makes it seem. The Rangers are still running out a bare outfield, and they can't count on a lot of production from catcher (Laird) or third base (Blalock) either. Their pitching staff is improving, but it's still not good enough to push this team much past .500.
Notes:

The Rangers will have a tough time simply maintaining what they accomplished last year. Granted, there is room for improvement; Brad Wilkerson and Mark Teixeira should have better years, and the addition of Brandon McCarthy gives the team a reliable #3 for the first time in recent memory. But although this team is taking baby steps forward, they're still not really contenders.

SEATTLE MARINERS

2006 W-L Record: 78-84 (4th)
2006 pW-pL Record: 78-84
2007 Projection: 72-90
Strengths: Infield corners; Outfield; Rotation depth

Weaknesses: Power; Rotation quality; Middle relief
Biggest Change from '06: Added depth of Miguel Batista and Jeff Weaver
One Reason:
One Reason the Mariners will win in '07 is by forfeit.

One Reason the Mariners will lose in '07 is if they just keep doing what they've been doing.
Notes:

I may be too pessimistic about the Mariners. Yes, they improved their starting rotation in the offseason (but at what cost?). And yeah, their offense isn't that bad. Or is it? Really, they've got a star in Ichiro, a few solid players (Sexson, Beltre, Johjima, Ibanez) and then nada. Adding in Jose Guillen and Jose Vidro isn't going to help anything.
And it should be said that the Mariners gave up Rafael Soriano for nothing (viz: Horacio Ramirez), thereby hurting their middle relief prospects. And while the M's did improve their rotation, it was pretty bad to begin with, and no one would call Miguel Batista and Jeff Weaver money in the bank.

GM Bill Bavasi was trying to save his job, and I doubt it will result in much headway out on the field.

Looking Ahead: Oakland Athletics

2006 W-L Record: 93-69
2006 pW-pL Record: 85-77
Runs Scored: 771 (9th in AL)
Runs Allowed: 727 (3rd in AL)
Free Agents: Jay Payton, Frank Thomas, Barry Zito

2007 Projected Lineup:
1B -- Dan Johnson
2B -- Mark Ellis
SS -- Bobby Crosby
3B -- Eric Chavez
LF -- Nick Swisher
CF -- Mark Kotsay
RF -- Milton Bradley
C -- Jason Kendall
DH -- Mike Piazza

2007 Proj. Rotation:
Rich Harden
Dan Haren
Joe Blanton
Esteban Loaiza
Joe Kennedy?

2007 Proj. Closer: Huston Street

Offense/Defense:
The Oakland defense tied for 2nd in the AL in fielding percentage (.986) but were 6th in DER at .688. This could indicate the declining range of aging guys like Mark Kotsay and Mark Ellis, as well as injuries to key defenders Chavez and Crosby. But even if it's not quite as good as it looks, the Oakland defense is fine; the problem here is the offense.
The A's 9th-place finish in runs scored was the result of a roster stretched to its limits by injuries. Not only did the A's see regression from defensive stalwart Mark Ellis (249/319/385), they had to deal with the increasingly dismal output of guys like Jason Kendall (295/367/342) and Mark Kotsay (275/332/386).
But even with these guys bringing up the rear, the A's were supposed to be contenders with the rest of their lineup. Unfortunately for them, that didn't quite work out the way they'd hoped.
Despite getting good defense from Eric Chavez, the third baseman just isn't hitting like an MVP (241/351/435 in '06; career 271/350/489) and probably never will. When he's healthy, that's fine. But if he struggles with injuries again, as in 2006, the A's don't have the depth to replace his output.
The same can be said of Bobby Crosby. Crosby, a big-time prospect, suffered through yet another injury-plagued season (229/298/338) that was even worse than 2005, when he was also injured. It's easy to stay positive about Crosby since he's still young (just 26 next year) and does have a decent major league season under his belt (a 239/319/426 2004). But Crosby has yet to hit really well in the majors, and since 2004, he hasn't been able to stay in the lineup. Neither of these things bode really well for a guy who was supposed to be a future MVP. The A's need him to be productive to avoid another quick playoff exit.
First baseman Dan Johnson didn't have the high expectations of Crosby, but he was supposed to be a solid-hitting first base option like he was in 2005 (275/355/451). Instead, he was barely adequate (234/323/381) and got shipped to the minors. With prospect Daric Barton stalled (259/389/395 at Triple-A), The A's had no choice but to shift Nick Swisher to first and spend far too much time playing Jay Payton in left (296/325/418). Johnson should bounce back next year, and he's still got that 2005 swing left in him, but this was another step back on a team that couldn't afford any more of them. Combined with the injuries/regression suffered by 2B Mark Ellis, and the Oakland infield was effectively decimated in 2006. In the postseason, instead of a strong Johnson-Ellis-Crosby-Chavez infield, the A's were forced to play Swisher-D'Angelo Jimenez-Marco Scutaro-Chavez, with the punchless Payton in left field. Little wonder then that the Tigers swept them.
Swisher, who split time between left field and first base, was one of the few bright spots for the team. The team of Moneyball fame finished with a merely average .340 OBP, but that was no fault of Swisher's; the 25-year-old paced the team with 97 walks and also swatted 35 homers. He helped fill a big vacuum, and it was lucky for the A's that one of their young hitters was finally coming through.
Fiery trade acquisition Milton Bradley spent most of the time in right field, but the injury bug bit again, limiting him to 96 games. Bradley performed quite well, hitting 276/370/447 with the team, but it was little consolation; it was a case of "another one bites the dust" with Bobby Kielty forced to replace him.
The other Special Ks, Kotsay and Kendall, were unimpressive, as mentioned above. So the team went through most of the season with only Swisher (and sometimes Chavez and Bradley) contributing from the field. The team that looked like it had strong depth was instead held back by numerous injuries and disappointments, and their lack of depth (especially in the middle infield) was what people remembered.
Fortunately for Oakland, they had an insurance policy at DH. Now coming into 2006, no one would have predicted that Frank Thomas -- of all people -- would be the most reliable and productive hitter on the ballclub, and yet that's exactly how things turned out. Thomas only played 137 games, but he made them count; he hit 270/381/545, with a team-leading 39 HR and 114 RBI. He almost single-handedly kept the team afloat and resurrected his chances for Cooperstown, all for a relative pittance.

The A's will get to re-boot and try again next year, with the same cast of characters (sans Thomas) out to prove that they weren't overachieving when they reached the ALCS last year. The A's offense has a lot to prove. They must stay healthy, simply because there is little room for error; with most of the roster injury-prone, new manager Bob Geren will have to play mix-and-match with hopefully better options than Mark Kiger in 2007. A lot of people will have to step it up if the A's want to fight off the Angels and repeat in '07, with the most obvious being Eric Chavez and Bobby Crosby.

Pitching:
The Oakland pitching staff saved the offense last year, and there's every indication that they can do the same thing this year. Injuries struck here, too, as erstwhile ace Rich Harden made only 9 starts the entire season due to injury. Projections are still good for Harden, but his injury history is long enough now that Billy Beane should have visions of Mark Prior dancing in his head.
The good news is that even without Harden, the A's pitching staff survived. Barry Zito led the team in ERA at 3.83, despite a career-high 99 walks and a surprising 27 HR allowed (Oakland played as a pitcher's park in 2006). With Zito headed out as a free agent, the mantle of "backup ace" falls to Danny Haren, who should bear the burden quite well. Haren is, in fact, a better pitcher than Zito in the present and future. Haren will be just 26 next year and is coming off a season where he led the A's staff in innings (223) and strikeouts (176). His HR allowed were troubling (31), leading to a less-than-stellar 4.12 ERA. But Haren is the real deal; a strong #2 who can step in as a temporary ace if Harden falls again.
Behind Harden and Haren, the A's have two perfectly acceptable LAIMs. Esteban Loaiza got off to a woeful start, but -- while he didn't justify his brand-new contract -- he pitched well enough, managing a 4.89 ERA in 26 starts. Injuries may have played a part in Loaiza's struggles, although he doesn't have much potential to go under 4.50 in ERA at age 35.
The LAIM with the better growth potential is Joe Blanton. Blanton came on the scene with a strong rookie seaosn in 2005 (3.53 ERA in 201.1 IP), but his low strikeout rate caught up with him (116 K) and his 2006 ERA fell all the way to 4.82. The real Blanton is likely somewhere in between, and -- at age 25 -- he'll be cheap and productive for a while yet.
If Rich Harden can stay healthy and somewhat replace the departing Barry Zito, there's no reason to think that the 2007 starting rotation will be any worse than the 2006 squad. They've got the guys out there to eat up innings, but they would certainly like a better showing from everyone, at least in terms of runs allowed. They're losing depth along with Zito -- Joe Kennedy will likely step into the #5 spot -- but they may not be losing any quality at all.

The Oakland bullpen took a similar path as the rotation. Despite the troubles facing closer Huston Street, the A's managed to surround him with a fine cast of supporting players and ended up with a solid staff. Street regressed from his unlikely brilliance in 2005 (1.72), seeing his ERA nearly double to 3.31. Street's poise is real and was documented past the point of insanity in 2005. But his stuff is debatable. It's doubtful that he's going to assume the mantle of Mariano Rivera as the game's best closer, as the 2005 hype suggested. But even if he settles in as an above-average guy, he'll be valuable. And there's every reason to indicate that he can do that and more.
Behind Street, the A's have competent setup man Justin Duchscherer (2.91 ERA), Kiko Calero (3.41) and young Chad Gaudin (3.09). The A's wrote the book on the fungibility of closers and setup men, and their current pen is not only cheap, but very cost-effective. Behind those three, the team has long man Kirk Saarloos, Ron Flores, and a couple other options out of the 'pen. If the A's fail to repeat in '07, it will not likely be the fault of the bullpen.

Offseason Game Plan:
The A's have already nabbed Mike Piazza to fill the Thomas void at DH; they just need to hope that he's the 2006 version (332/372/564 on the road) and not an earlier version (251/326/452 overall in '05).
The A's could use a better insurance policy than Kirk Saarloos for the possible Harden injury. But considering the going rate for starting pitching, it's not likely that the team will do anything more than nibble at the free agent periphery. GM Billy Beane has even been involved in rumors trading away a starting pitcher, such as Blanton or Haren.
Really, though, it all comes down to the options. While the team needs better depth, the problem is mostly with the incumbent personnel. There's not a lot you need to change about a lineup that still includes Nick Swisher, Bobby Crosby, Eric Chavez, Milton Bradley and Piazza.
Top priority is keeping everyone healthy.