A.L. East Off-Season: Team by Team

Baltimore Orioles

Dec. 9:  Orioles trade Chris Ray and a PTBNL (Ben Snyder) to the Rangers for Kevin Millwood and cash.
Are 75 wins really that much better than 70?  I’m not being sarcastic; I really wonder.  How much difference does it make having Millwood on the roster?  Does it help season ticket sales that much?  Is he really going to tutor the young pitchers enough to make it worthwhile?  Or is he there to take the pressure off of them?  If so, is that really practical, or is it just another one of those things people say?  Is that enough rhetorical questions for ya?

Dec. 18:  Orioles sign Mike Gonzalez to a two-year contract worth $12 MM.
I’m much more skeptical of this than I am of the Millwood deal.  Does a fourth-place team really need a B-level closer?  The team’s record with free agents relievers is discouraging.

2009 AL East Preview

The time had come for a change in Yankee-ville, and the Bronx Bombers were more than ready to seize the day. They started out by signing ace starter CC Sabathia (7 yrs., $161 MM) and strikeout master A.J. Burnett (5 yrs., $82.5 MM). And to bolster their offense, they brought in 28-year-old Mark Teixeira (8 yrs., $180 MM) to play first. The changes gave the Yankees a huge boost and put the spotlight on them as the team to beat in the AL East.
But the story isn't that simple. The Rays are still there, and while they may be destined to take a step back from the 2008 brilliance, that's no guarantee. The Red Sox spent the off-season adding spare parts like Josh Bard, John Smoltz and Ramon Ramirez, but they still feel confident that their core producers can compete with anyone, rich or poor.
It's tough to choose a winner out of three significant contenders. But here's how I see it happening ...

2009 Prediction
1st — New York Yankees
2nd — Boston Red Sox
3rd — Tampa Bay Rays
4th — Toronto Blue Jays
5th — Baltimore Orioles

New York Yankees
Not only have the Yankees added a significant upgrade at three positions (two starters and a first baseman), they also have a lot of room for improvement from within.

2008 AL East in Review

Baltimore Orioles

W-L: 68-93 (Last in AL East)

pW-pL: 73-88

Payroll: $67,196,246 (10th in AL)

R/G: 4.86 (8th in AL)

ERA: 5.15 (13th in AL)

DER: .687 (7th in AL)

Team MVPs: Nick Markakis, Brian Roberts, Aubrey Huff

A Drag on the Payroll: Ramon Hernandez (257/308/406, $7.5 MM), Jay Payton (243/291/346, $5 MM), Danys Baez (Did Not Pitch, $4.5 MM), Jamie Walker (6.87 ERA, 38 IP, $4.5 MM)

What Went Right: The Erik Bedard trade worked out pretty well. Adam Jones is still looking quite raw as an athlete, but even still, you know the Mariners would like that one back. Both Aubrey Huff (304/360/552) and Melvin Mora (285/342/483) experienced strong bounceback seasons in their 30's. There hasn't been a complete turnaround, but there's enough happiness here to sustain some legitimate optimism.

AL East Preview

Baltimore Orioles
2007 W-L Record: 69-93
2007 pW-pL Record: 71-91
Strengths: Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, Brian Roberts**-- if they don't trade him
Weaknesses: Pitching, Pitching, Pitching ... and the rest of the offense
Biggest Change from '07: Bye-Bye Bedard
One Reason:
One reason the Orioles will win in '07 is an act of God.

State of the MLB Union . . . AL East

If I may ...

• It looks like Cecil Cooper will stay on as Astros manager after this season, but the position of GM remains open for the moment. I have to say, if Astros owner Drayton McLane wanted to create some scapegoats by getting rid of Phil Garner and Tim Purpura, the move has backfired. Since the firings took place, McLane himself has been the one to get flamed in the media, and very few people are optimistic about the chances of the next GM to serve under the meddlesome McLane.
• It's getting to be quite an exciting time for a baseball fan, as competitive balance rages on, especially in the NL, where nobody's sure of anything anymore. So hold on to your uniforms, and let's get started.

The AL East has been exciting, but as Rob Neyer pointed out today, it's an excitement that doesn't extend far beyond the northeast. Both the Red Sox and Yankees have really strong odds of making the postseason, so the only real drama is who wins the division and who wins the Wild Card. So unless you're a diehard fan of one of these teams, the excitement has to be tempered.
Still, there's a lot of good baseball to play, and there are still some very curious storylines to be played out in Baltimore, Toronto, and Tampa Bay.
Boston Red Sox (80-55)
My Prediction: 91-71
On Current Pace: 96-66

2007 American League Predictions

AL EAST:
New York Yankees (96-66) 94-98 win range
Boston Red Sox (91-71) 89-93 win range
Toronto Blue Jays (88-74) 86-90 win range
Baltimore Orioles (75-87) 73-77 win range
Tampa Bay Devil Rays (69-93) 67-71 win range

AL CENTRAL:
Cleveland Indians (94-68) 92-96 win range
*Minnesota Twins (93-69) 91-95 win range
Detroit Tigers (90-72) 88-92 win range
Chicago White Sox (88-74) 86-90 win range
Kansas City Royals (63-99) 61-65 win range

AL WEST:
Los Angeles Angels (94-68) 92-96 win range
Oakland Athletics (92-70) 90-94 win range
Texas Rangers (84-78) 82-86 win range
Seattle Mariners (72-90) 70-74 win range

AL MVP: Travis Hafner, Indians

AL CY YOUNG: Johan Santana, Twins

AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Alex Gordon, Royals

ALCS: Yankees over Indians

WS: Yankees over Dodgers

AL EAST

NEW YORK YANKEES

2006 W-L Record: 97-65 (1st)

2006 pW-pL Record: 95-67

2007 Projection: 96-66

Strengths: Offense, disposable cash

Weaknesses: Rotation star quality; bullpen depth; first base

Biggest Change from '06: Kei Igawa

One Reason:
One reason the Yankees will win in '07 is the same reason they've won for years: a strong offense supports a merely capable pitching staff.
One reason the Yankees will lose in '07 is that their lineup isn't as strong as it looks. Everyone's getting older, and replacing Gary Sheffield with Doug Mientkiewicz is pretty significant. The same could be said of their rotation, with questions surrounding Andy Pettite, Chien-Ming Wang, and Kei Igawa, not to mention whomever fills in at 5th starter until Phillip Hughes comes up. Switching out Randy Johnson for Igawa at least gives them fewer age-related issues.

Notes:

The Yankees are, as always, strong favorites to reach October. For all the questions and concerns there are surrounding the Yankees, we have to remember that the Yanks have similar issues every season for a while now and have still managed to weather the storm and make the postseason. They've got the money, they've got Phillip Hughes, and they've got a much better-run front office with Brian Cashman calling the shots. It will be a tighter race than it was last year, but I think the Bombers still have the edge.

BOSTON RED SOX

2006 W-L Record: 86-76 (3rd)
2006 pW-pL Record: 81-81
2007 Projection: 95-67
Strengths: Impact hiters, pitching depth, Dice-K
Weaknesses: Bullpen, offensive depth
Biggest Change from '06: Dice-K
One Reason:
One Reason the BoSox will win in '07 is that they've got the impact hitters and the impact pitchers. The supporting cast may not be what it was in 2004, but they've got Manny & Papi in the lineup and Schilling-Matsuzaka-Papelbon-Beckett in the rotation.

One Reason the BoSox will lose in '07 is because their supporting cast really is an issue. The Sox' batting order is strong 1-6 (Lugo, Youkilis, Papi, Manny, Drew, Lowell), but they've got big questions surrounding Jason Varitek, Coco Crisp, and Dustin Pedroia. If those three come through, then the Sox could have the best offense in the league. But if even two of them come up empty, then the Sox will struggle like they did down the stretch last year. The same is true in the bullpen, where Joel Pineiro (I'm still convinced this is a crazy plan) is anchoring a less-than-stellar lot.
Notes:

(If you read my NL entry and wonder what happened to my prediction that the Sox would win the Series, I changed my mind when I started preparing this entry. Ask me again tomorrow and I may change my mind, but with Boston's bullpen troubles and lineup holes, I don't think they can beat out the Twins, White Sox, A's and maybe even Tigers).

Just like last year, the Sox are a volatile team. If everything goes right, from Matsuzaka's debut to Schilling's conditioning, to Beckett's homers, to Papelbon's transition, to Drew's health, to Crisp's recovery, to Pedroia's debut, to Pineiro's role change, then the Sox are contenders. But that's a whole lot of conditions to meet, and the Sox will have to meet nearly all of them to win the Wild Card.
That 2006 Pythagorean record scares me. Have the Sox really added 15 true wins this offseason?

TORONTO BLUE JAYS

2006 W-L Record: 87-75 (2nd)
2006 pW-pL Record: 86-76
2007 Projection: 88-74
Strengths: Star pitchers, middle of the order
Weaknesses: Back of rotation, middle infield
Biggest Change from '06: Frank Thomas
One Reason:

One Reason the Jays will win in '07 is that they keep anything big from going wrong. Their offense looks strong, and while they're getting zero production from the middle infield, they should be pretty potent none the less, especially when Adam Lind gets a full-time job. Their rotation isn't very impressive after Halladay and Burnett, but the Jays have several guys (Chacin, Thomson, Ohka) who can at least keep the team in games. The Blue Jays may survive not because they're better than the other teams, but because they have much less potential to suck.

One Reason the Jays will lose in '07 is that they're in the wrong league. It used to be that they were in the wrong division, but with the ascension of the AL Central and the A's-Angels twin towers out west, the Jays aren't going to catch any breaks when it comes to reaching the postseason. It's highly unlikely that the Jays will be the best team in their division, which means they're going to have to compete against four or five other teams in the Wild Card race who are just as good and probably better.
Notes:

The Jays did finish second last year and show promising improvement that's supported by the Pythagorean numbers. It wouldn't be a terrific surprise if they won 95 games, but they're much less likely to do it than most teams in the race.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES:

2006 W-L Record: 70-92 (4th)
2006 pW-pL Record: 69-93
2007 Projection: 75-87
Strengths: Young Pitching, Nick Markakis, Miguel Tejada
Weaknesses: Everything else
Biggest Change from '06: A full season of Nick Markakis
One Reason:
One Reason the Orioles will win in '07 is they go see the opera "Faust" and get an idea.

One Reason the Orioles will lose in '07 . . . one reason?
Notes:

It's not the like the Orioles aren't doing anything right. They've graduated some quality arms to the big leagues and have an impact player in right fielder Nick Markakis. But after Tejada, Brian Roberts and Ramon Hernandez, the lineup is pretty drab. Plus there are no guarantees about the potency of their young pitchers, especially Daniel Cabrera. Their farm system has some gems at the lower levels but no one ready to fill holes in the big leagues. There's no reason to expect the Orioles to contend in the near future.

TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS

2006 W-L Record: 61-101
2006 pW-pL Record: 65-97
2007 Projection: 69-93
Strengths: Young hitters, farm system
Weaknesses: Pitching staff, mismanagement of prospects, general sucktitude
Biggest Change from '06: (Hopefully) Getting B.J. Upton and Delmon Young in the majors
One Reason:
One Reason the Rays will win in '07 is that their offensive prospects step in and add potency to a depressingly bad lineup. Even with Carl Crawford and a healthy Rocco Baldelli, the '06 Rays finished a distant last in runs scored (4.25 R/G) in the AL. There's a long way to go before they can become a real threat, but they've got the top-notch talent (Upton, Young, Akinori Iwamura) to make a significant impact right away.

One Reason the Rays will lose in '07 is that their pitching staff is equally awful, but with little prospect for improvement. The Rays finished 12th out of 14 AL teams in runs allowed last year (5.28 RA/G). Part of that is due to a bad defense, yes, but even so, there are no saviors in the farm system to help them out here. There is some hope, but nothing like a B.J. Upton or Delmon Young.
Notes:

Even if the Rays' offense skyrockets up to 4th or 5th place in the league, their pitching is still so bad that it wouldn't guarantee them more than 80 wins or so. The 2007 version of the Devil Rays could be the best ever for the franchise, but that standard is so woefully low that it's hard to get excited about.

Back later with the AL Central.

He deserved this.

Does anyone here speak English? Or ancient Greek?

Go ahead and put me on the DL with a severely bruised ego.
News today re: the tenders, non-tenders and love-me tenders.

• First of all, the Baltimore Orioles signed free agent Jay Payton to a 2-year contract for $9.5 million. The report was that the Orioles had finally found their right-handed hitting outfielder. Well, that's half-true; Payton is right-handed. But I'm not so sure about the whole "hitter" thing.
  The Orioles scored 768 runs last year, only 12 more than the last-place Mariners. You would think that, coming into this off-season, the team would try to target some positions that are ripe for improvement. Catcher, Second Base, Shortstop, Third Base, and DH are filled with free agents (or guys under long-term deals). Corey Patterson is set in center, as is Nick Markakis in right. That leaves first base and left field.
  The Orioles punted one opportunity when they signed Kevin Millar to play first base. But Millar should at least hit enough to survive, and he only got a 1-year deal. But Payton, who walks, talks, and quacks like a fourth outfielder, got a 2-year deal. 34-year-old Payton hit 296/325/418 last year, which isn't in any way adequate for a starting left fielder. Payton's contract isn't for much money, so they would be able to move him to a backup role if an upgrade came along. But are the Orioles even aware that they need an upgrade? And how long will they keep Payton starting in left until they realize it?
• But the big news of today was a trade: the Rockies traded Jason Jennings and reliever Miguel Asencio to Houston for center fielder Willy Taveras and pitching prospects Jason Hirsh and Taylor Buchholz.
  I remarked before that it's a good thing for the Astros that they didn't give up Hirsh, Buchholz, and Taveras to get a pitcher as average (and expensive) as Jon Garland. And yet they've given up just that to get Jennings, who is much cheaper, but whose track record isn't nearly as strong. In fact, Jennings has every appearance of being a LAIM. And although he made a strong showing in 2006, there was little to be happy about from 2002-2005, even when you take Coors Field into account. Add in the fact that Jennings is a free agent after this season (I'm pretty sure), and the Astros have taken a big hit in their long-term plans for a very questionable return on the short term.
  Is it possible that I'm not giving Jennings enough credit? He did pitch quite well in 2006, posting a 3.78 ERA in a tough run environment, setting a career high in innings pitched and strikeouts (212 and 142, respectively). Is it just Coors Field that makes Jennings look bad? Partly. His career ERA on the road is a respectable 4.37, compared to 5.19 at Coors. He has a higher walk rate on the road, but his strikeout rate is also higher. His road K rate is about 6.16 per 9 innings, which is about average.
  So who is Jason Jennings? He's a 28-year-old with good durability who has an average K rate, an above-average walk rate, and is pretty good at limiting home runs, especially given his environment.
  That's a quality guy to have around. He's probably never going to be an All-Star, but that depends on your point of view. The pre-2006 Jennings looked to be much more of a low-end LAIM. But in 2006, Jennings took a noticeable step forward. Is this a step forward for good, or just a career year? Are his numbers, even his road numbers, better than Coors makes them look? That's a tough question.
  However, the point here isn't to question how good Jason Jennings is, it's to ask whether or not the Astros should have made the trade. So is Jennings (and Asencio, the raw throw-in) worth giving up your two top pitching prospects and your starting center fielder?
  I don't think so. Hirsh was the pride of the Houston system. He's shown good control and poise in the minors, arriving in the majors last year for a 9-start engagement. Hirsh pitched quite well last year in Double-A (2.87 ERA, 165 K, 42 BB and 12 HR in 172.1 IP) and continued that in Triple-A this year. He had trouble in Houston, posting a 6.04 ERA thanks in part to 11 HR allowed in 44.2 IP. This could be a problem for Hirsh; he allowed few homers in the minors, but once in Houston his fly-ball tendencies (32% while an Astro) caught up with him. Unfortunately for Hirsh, he's going to Colorado.
  If the deal were Jennings-for-Hirsh straight up, I could understand the Astros' take. Hirsh struggled in the majors, and while it would be premature to condemn him to a career of ineffectiveness, it is possible that he's not the right fit for Houston. Trading him in for a more proven commodity like Jennings would be understandable, although it would be a big risk to give up on Hirsh so quickly.
  The problem is that the Astros -- a team that really needs pitching depth -- actually sacrificed their pitching depth in this deal. Trading away two starting pitching prospects, both of whom have already reached the majors, for one starting pitcher, is hard to understand -- especially when the pitcher you're getting isn't an All-Star at all.
  The other pitcher in the deal, Taylor Buchholz, isn't nearly as promising as Hirsh. Buchholz hasn't had a quality season since 2003 in Double-A. Since then, his K rate has degenerated to unimpressive levels, and he allows far too many walks and home runs to compensate. Buchholz made 19 starts with Houston last year, posting a 5.89 ERA and showing off all of the marginal peripherlas he'd shown in the minors. At age 25, there's little reason to expect much from Buchholz, especially since he's going to a ballpark that will exacerbate his problems.
  Willy Taveras may be an overrated player, but he's still got his high points. He sports as empty a batting average as you'll find (career 284/329/340 hitter), and also steals bases (68/88 in the majors), but not enough to help much. His biggest strength is defense. Taveras looks like a heck of a center fielder out there, and the numbers back up that claim. Taveras is 33 Fielding Runs Above Average in his two full major league seasons, which is phenomenal. If the Astros weren't already stocked with punchless glove men, Taveras might be worth keeping as a cheap alternative.
  
  So: is it worth giving up Hirsh, Buchholz, and Taveras to get Jennings?
  I don't think so. I think Jennings is underrated, and should look better in Houston. The problem will be that he's just under the Astros control for a year, and if they do sign a long-term contract, they be well-told to do it later in the season to see how Jennings takes to the Juice Box.
  Hirsh may have his issues as a pitcher (he's also going to be 25), but he's the best the Astros have. He's cheap and is, in my mind, worth the risk. In my mind, you'd have to give up Hirsh for a pitcher who was demonstrably better. And it's hard to make that case for Jennings, especially in the long term.
  Buchholz doesn't have a lot of upside, but even a fifth starter would be valuable to Houston if he could eat up some innings.
  And while Taveras isn't any sort of complete player, it's hard to believe that the Astros will be a better team without him. They don't have any clear-cut successor on hand, unless they're planning on rushing Hunter Pence right into the starting job (which is possible). If they don't go with Pence, then they'll probably have to go with Chris Burke, which leaves the deteriorating Craig Biggio all alone at second base. Again, more evidence that this move isn't going to do Houston any favors in the short term.
  On the other hand, I kind of like this deal for Colorado. Hirsh may not profile like the best fit for Coors Field, but he does have good control, and any sort of pitching prospect is good news for Colorado. My personal opinion is that they should have kept Jennings, but if they were going to trade him, it's nice to get a valuable pitching prospect and a filler-type young starting pitcher and a new center fielder. Taveras should be more helpful to the Rockies than he was to the Astros. The Rockies look, long-term, like a team that should have a well-balanced offensive attack. Unlike the Astros, they can afford to waste a lineup spot on a glove man, especially if he's a fantastic center fielder roaming one of the widest outfields in baseball.
  The final decision on this trade will have to wait until we see how Jennings is outside of the Denver Bizarro World. But right now, it looks like the Astros gave up a little too much to get not enough in return.
• Several players were not tendered contracts by the deadline, making them free agents. They were mostly marginal players, but some of them were useful guys who could help out a team, such as Aaron Guiel, Victor Zambrano, Brandon Claussen, Chris Reitsma, and Jayson Werth. But only one former All-Star got non-tendered, and it came as a big surprise to me, along with many others.
  The Braves non-tendered Marcus Giles, making him a free agent.
  Giles is far, far more useful than any other player non-tendered. He'll be 29 next year, and is a good-fielding second baseman who hits far above average for the position. Now, it's doubtful that Giles will retain the near-MVP form he showed in 2003 (316/390/526), but there's got to be a market out there for a good-hitting second baseman (career .279 EQA) with a good glove that borders on Gold Glove quality.
  Giles is coming off of a very dismal 2006, where he hit just 262/341/387. Is this perhaps a sign of something worse, and is that why Schuerholz couldn't get a good trade for him? It's possible. Giles' deterioration is partly power-based (he only hit 32 doubles and 11 HR last year), but it was mainly due to a near-30 point drop in his batting average. A his peak, Giles hit over .300, but his average has gone down every year since 2003, and it's possible that this indicates a decrease in bat speed. I watch Braves games more than any team besides the Reds, and while I'm no scout, Giles hasn't seemed as sharp at the plate as he used to. That may just be me rationalizing the stats. But the lack of interest around baseball seems to indicate that there are suspicions surrounding Giles.
  It's really hard to believe that Schuerholz couldn't get something for Giles. He was rumored to be going to San Diego, but that deal never worked out. He may end up there yet. But there are other teams that could use a good second baseman, among them the Mets, Nats (if they can pry away Vidro), Padres, and the Blue Jays, among others.
• It's being reported that the Rangers have reached a 1-year, $6 million contract with Eric Gagne.
  I have mixed feelings about this contract. It's less money than Gagne was rumored to be offered, so it's a much better deal for someone as high-risk as he is. And it's not a lot of money to pay a closer.
  My problem is that the Rangers don't seem to be focused on spending their money in the right places. They already had a closer, in Akinori Otsuka. Otsuka isn't the most reliable closer in the league, but then it seems to me that the Rangers have more pressing issues than giving themselves redundancy in the bullpen. Their starting outfield was Catalanotto/Wilkerson/Nelson Cruz before they signed Kenny Lofton recently. Even with Lofton, their offense isn't as potent as it would seem, and their starting pitching staff is still unimpressive. Even assuming the best-case scenario for Millwood and Padilla, the Rangers still have three spots in their rotation to fill, preferably with people not named Jon Koronka.
  Step 1 is to Identify the Problem. Buying the Player is Step 5 or 6, and you shouldn't jump that far until you've carefully looked at Step 1.
• Miguel Batista is reportedly close to signing a free agent deal for 3 years and $24 million (or $27 million, depending upon who you ask). Those numbers look oddly like contracts that were being signed last season, before the big salary inflation. Batista is basically a LAIM at this point in his career, although there are some troubling signs in his performance over the past few years. His walk rates and strikeout rates have gone in the wrong directions since his career year in 2003. Now, Batista has never had good numbers in that regard, so it's not automatically a reason to suspect his performance. But he's turning 35 next February and is coming off a year of a 4.58 ERA and a 84:110 BB:K ratio in 206.1 IP. He's not the kind of pitcher I would want to sign to this kind of contract, but considering the circumstances, it's not the worst deal of the offseason by any means. The most important thing here is that the Mariners limited themselves to just 3 years. 2 years would have been better, but that's probably wishful thinking.
  But the real trouble here isn't the contract, it's the team that signed it. The Mariners really aren't in any position to sign a risky contract. They're a team that needs to build up a strong foundation of some reliable players before they start going out and speculating. The problem is that the Mariners' downside is still last place by a good margin, and the signing of Batista commits a lot of money without significant changing that. The Mariners need more reliable players and safer contracts; they don't need any more Adrian Beltres.
  If the Yankees had signed this contract, I wouldn't be so negative. The Yankees aren't looking for one pitcher to save them, and they're also fiscally capable of absorbing the loss. But the Mariners are neither of these things. Batista doesn't strongly increase their upside, but he does increase the risk of another season of sunk costs and bad contracts.
  A lot of this is probably rooted in the Mariners' desperation. The M's were criticized for not being active at the Winter Meetings. And there's no better setup for a bad contract than when a GM is pressured to do something. GM Bill Bavasi is especially anxious, considered by many to be on the hot seat this year. And with the team struggling despite having made serious commitments to Adrian Beltre, Richie Sexson, and Jarrod Washburn, Bavasi is about to become the fall guy. And for the most part, that's probably justified.
• Jeff Bagwell is expected to officially announce his retirement this week. I've always been a fan of Bagwell's and never thought he got enough credit for his hitting, especially his 368/451/750 1994.
  But the whispers are starting, and unfortunately, they're probably justified. Bagwell is one player who -- although there's never been any sort of evidence presented against him -- has been strongly suspected of steroid use. We're put in a very unfortunate position when considering Bagwell and the players of his era. On one hand, it's patently unfair to condemn something for suspicions as groundless as these. On the other hand, it would be irresponsible to be naive about the matter and wait for some "smoking gun" that we'll never find.

I'll be back later with my look ahead at the Angels. Only four teams to go!

Looking Ahead: Baltimore Orioles

Before we start, a few quick free agent notes, including a few deals I forgot to discuss last week:

• The Dodgers are getting desperate and stupid. It was widely rumored that GM Ned Colletti would panic into giving Nomar Garciaparra a new contract, and he's done exactly that: 2 years and $18.5 million. It's not the contract that bothers me so much, but the fact that the Dodgers don't need him. Colletti has Sabean-itis, a need to sign old guys to take the place of young guys. Two years isn't bad, but you're counting on Garciaparra continuing what was a 2-month hot streak in 2006. He's not going to hit well enough to play first base, which is sad when they've got a cheap rookie (James Loney) who does.
• And now for the really stupid: word is that the Dodgers are about to finalize a 5-year, $45 million deal with Juan Pierre. Excuse me a moment . . .

AAAAAAAAAAGGGGHHH!

• I'm sorry, I was just under the impression that the Dodgers weren't completely f***ing stupid. $9 million a year for 5 years is a deal for a true All-Star. Juan Pierre is NOT an All-Star. He's a career 303/350/377 hitter with poor defense in center who just happens to be very fast. Juan Pierre is someone you can stick in center field who won't hurt you too much. In 2006 with the Cubs, he hit a woeful 292/330/388 and went 58/78 (74%) in steals. He's a below-average hitter, below-average defender and he adds only a handful of bases each year via steals. This deal will be inscribed on Ned Colletti's tombstone, and I'm sorry that we all have to suffer through the slow realization that he's just acquired a giant piece of dead weight on the payroll. The only thing worse will be having to listen to all the mainstream media types talk about what a great signing this is. That kind of thing gives me severe gas.
• The Yankees signed Mike Mussina to a 2-year, $23 million contract. The Yanks need Mussina, and it's good for them that they kept him, but I'm slightly troubled by the contract. Mussina turns 38 in December and has only been healthy and effective once in the past three years. Unfortunately, that kind of money is a bargain in this market, and the Yankees need pitching bad enough to overpay anyways.
• Frank Catalanotto has signed a 3-year, $13 million deal with the Rangers. This is a pretty reasonable deal, although the Rangers will probably have to find a platoon partner for him. Even if they can, it leaves them with the less-than-scary outfield of Catalanotto/Brad Wilkerson/Nelson Cruz.
• The Angels signed reliever Justin Speier to a 4-year deal worth $18 million. Speier is a good relief arm, and I thought some team would nab him and convert him into a closer. But it looks like the Angels want him just to fill out their bullpen. This could mean that they're about to trade someone. Speier's not a bad guy, but I think the Angels should put offense at the top of their shopping list.
• The Reds traded catcher Jason LaRue to Kansas City for a PTBNL. I'm not LaRue's biggest fan, but I don't see who the Reds plan to replace him with. If they think that David Ross' 2006 was for real (255/353/579, compared to a career 231/313/469), they're crazier than they look. The Reds will also pick up part of LaRue's $5 mil. 2007 salary.

And now for a couple deals I forgot to discuss earlier:

• The Chicago Cubs re-signed Aramis Ramirez to a 5-year $70 million deal. It was considered to be less than what Ramirez would have gotten on the free agent market. It's a huge commitment for the Cubs, but it is unfortunately a necessary one if they want to rebuild their offense. Perhaps the Ramirez and Drew incidents will make teams much less likely to include an "out clause" in someone's contract.
• I'll talk more about this below, but the Yankees did indeed trade Jaret Wright to Baltimore for relief pitcher Chris Britton. Even though they'll be paying $4 million of his $7 million salary, it's a good move for the Yankees to cut bait here. They're also getting a good, young, and cheap middle reliever in Britton. I said before that I don't know what the Orioles see in Wright, unless they think pitching coach Leo Mazzone can recapture the magic that propelled Wright to an excellent 2004 season with Atlanta. Although I guess even a pitcher as dodgy as Wright is a bargain for $3 mil.
• The Mets re-signed second baseman Jose Valentin to what appears to be a 1-year, $3 million deal. This is a good move; there aren't any better options out there for such a low price, and the Mets need to save their money to spend on pitching.

For the AL side of my "Looking Ahead" series, I decided to change the format a bit. Instead of splitting it up into "good news" and "bad news," I've decided to just split it into "offense and defense" and "pitching." It wasn't always easy to separate the good from the bad, and the two often ran together so much as to make the distinction arbitrary. I think it makes more sense to just discuss everything together, split into the two halves of player personnel.

And now, having said that, on to the Baltimore Orioles. Uggh.

2006 W-L Record: 70-92
2006 pW-pL Record: 69-93
Runs Scored: 768 (10th of 14 in AL)
Runs Allowed: 899 (13th of 14 in AL)
Free Agents: Bruce Chen, Steve Kline, Kevin Millar, Russ Ortiz

2007 Projected Lineup:
1B -- ??
2B -- Brian Roberts
SS -- Miguel Tejada
3B -- Melvin Mora
LF -- Jeff Fiorentino?
CF -- Corey Patterson
RF -- Nick Markakis
C -- Ramon Hernandez
DH -- Jay Gibbons

2007 Proj. Rotation
Erik Bedard
Kris Benson
Daniel Cabrera
Jaret Wright
Adam Loewen/Rodrigo Lopez/Hayden Penn

2007 Proj. Closer
Chris Ray

Offense/Defense:
The O's have, for several years, been an offense-heavy team with no pitching. Now, they're slowly turning, as their offense gets older. It's been almost a perfect switch, as the team hasn't managed to get both good hitting and pitching on the team at the same time. Their hitters are not only aging (Tejada, Mora), but they've made a few errant free agent signings (i.e. Javier Lopez). Not only that, but they've spent money almost exclusively on offense, and the diminishing returns indicate that it has not been money well spent.
For better or worse, Tejada is still the centerpiece of the team. Rumors are that the O's would like to trade him. I really don't understand why they would want to; Tejada will be just 31 next year and is only under contract for 3 more years (making about $13 mil. per year). He's still one of the best-hitting shortstops in baseball (330/379/498 last year), and although his defense is declining, it's nothing to get alarmed about. I'm flummoxed as to why the Orioles would trade their best player when they have no one to replace him and no pressing reason to get rid of him. For God's sake, he's still one of the 10 or 15 best players in the league! If they want to cut bait on him and pick up prospects, that's one thing. But since when have the Orioles planned for the future?
Another reason they may want to trade him is that he's been clearly unhappy in Baltimore. I can't say that I blame him; it's been hell. The team has sucked, the clubhouse has splintered into factions, and Tejada was caught right in the middle of the Rafael Palmeiro steroid controversy. Not only that, but the front office has been either indifferent or dreadfully incompetent at fielding a winner (thank you, Mr. Angelos). But although Tejada may not be happy in Baltimore, I don't think the Orioles should trade him unless they're getting a really good return.
The other reason they shouldn't trade him is that there's no one to replace him, and the lineup would really miss him. While there is hope for the pitching staff in the future, there is little for the offense, as their 10th-place finish in runs scored last year would suggest.
The only real star on the team after Tejada is young Nick Markakis. Markakis is widely considered to be one of the best hitting prospects in the game, and he should be in the Baltimore outfield for at least 5 more seasons. Markakis had a strong debut in 2006, hitting 291/351/448 in his rookie year, and should improve upon that much more in the years to come.
But alas, there isn't much depth behind those two to encourage Oriole fans. It looked like the team was going to cut bait on 34-year-old Melvin Mora, which would be a good move given Mora's declining offense (274/342/391 in '06). But alas, they were pressured into giving him a terrible contract extension: 3 years and $25 million. So Mora will be stinking up the Oriole lineup for a while yet, barring an unlikely comeback from last year's decline.
The Orioles have gotten some solid contribution from other places that should at least give the lineup some stability for the near future. Catcher Ramon Hernandez was very overpaid on the free agent market, but he's at least done well enough to partially justify it (275/343/479 last year), especially if he can stay healthy and durable (144 games in '06). Second baseman Brian Roberts isn't the MVP candidate he looked like in 2005; he's more likely the above-average contributor we saw in '06 (286/347/410). The O's even got good returns from Corey Patterson (276/314/443) who was at least solid and relatively cheap. The trade picking up Patterson (for Jerry Hairston, Jr.) was an uncharacteristically shrewd one by Baltimore management.
The club also has DH Jay Gibbons, who is a good hitter, but was also given another ill-advised contract extension. Gibbons is an "old-player skills" kind of guy -- a career 263/319/464 with good power but little athleticism. The O's have gotten good work from him in the past for little money, but instead of leaving the table while they were ahead, they gave Gibbons a 4-year (!) extension for $21.1 million. It's not a lot of money, but the contract should run longer than Gibbons can stay effective; his type of player falls quickly after age 30.
The O's still have several holes to fill in the lineup. They tried Kevin Millar as their first baseman last year, which wasn't nearly as laughable as everyone expected (272/374/437). Hopefully, they won't tempt fate again on him, as he'll be 35 next year. They also need another outfielder -- or a DH, if they can stomach Gibbons' defense.
The O's need good hitters to fill the first base and left field slots. Hopefully, they'll actually get good hitters and not fall into the Cubs trap of buying something just because it's expensive.

Pitching:
While the team continues to wallow in misery, grumpiness, and utter mediocrity, there are some signs that the pitching staff is getting better. Leo Mazzone didn't turn straw into gold his first year in Baltimore, but I've always maintained that it may take a while to see noticeable results from Mazzone's system, especially since he's bringing it to a new team. There's a lot of potential in the starting rotation, but Orioles fans would be wise to be pessimistic.
Erik Bedard is the classic "keep him healthy and he's great" pitcher. Bedard had a full run in 2006, throwing 196.1 innings with a fine 3.76 ERA. It's wishful thinking to call him an "ace," but he is the best pitcher on the Baltimore staff, and that's not the dubious compliment it once was.
Behind Bedard is Daniel Cabrera. Cabrera is another archetype: if he ever gets control, he'll be great. Cabrera throws some nasty-looking pitches. At times he is dominant, and at other times he pitches like he just stepped off a roller coaster. After a disappointing rookie year in 2004, Cabrera stepped forward by nearly doubling his strikeout rate (from 76 to 157 in about 15 more innings), lowering his ERA to 4.52. Better yet, the increased strikeout rate didn't affect his walk rate, which was still very high, but not dangerously so.
2006 was his first season under Leo Mazzone, and unfortunately, Cabrera's performance took a step back. His walk rate rose (104 in 148 IP) much more than his strikeout rate, and he again proved incapable of going deep into ballgames. Cabrera averaged barely 5 2/3 innings per start, which is great from a 5th starter -- not from a potential ace. He's started 27, 29, and 26 games in his career and never topped 162 innings. It's beginning to look like Cabrera is a bigger mess than even Mazzone can clean up.
With Kris Benson and Rodrigo Lopez, the Orioles have two reliable sources of innings -- it's just that the innings aren't that good. Benson's first year in the AL saw him post a 4.82 ERA in 183 innings of work with a dreadful 58:88 BB:K ratio. Lopez set a career high with a 5.90 ERA in 189 innings. Lopez has always walked the line; the line where your durability is either an asset or a liability. He can't be counted on for anything but replacement-level innings.
The trade of Jaret Wright does give the team another alternative. After a terrible 2005 in New York, Wright rebounded with what was, all things considerd, not such a bad year. His ERA was a tolerable 4.49. However, he was still limited to just 140.1 IP and posted a dismal 57:84 BB:K ratio. Wright might be able to provide better-quality innings than Lopez, but unless Mazzone can work his magic again, Wright will just be taking up space.
And the worst part is that the Orioles have a couple young pitchers who deserve a shot in the rotation. Adam Loewen moved quickly through the minors before reaching Baltimore in 2006. His big-league numbers were pretty poor (5.37 ERA, 62:98 BB:K ratio in 112.1 IP), and his minor league numbers don't make him look like a star, either. But he's a cheaper alternative than guys like Wright and probably deserves a shot.
Hayden Penn got the call to the majors in 2005, but wasn't ready. He spent most of 2006 at Triple-A Ottawa and now appears to have earned a shot in the bigs. Granted, his 2006 cup of coffee was a disaster (15.10 ERA in 6 starts), but he's still valuable. Teams like Baltimore shouldn't take for granted the cheap, major-league ready arms they have in their own system.

Offseason Game Plan:
The O's are rumored to be big players in the Carlos Lee sweepstakes. Unfortunately, I just don't see that one ending well for Baltimore. Lee would provide good power, but he's another unathletic guy who probably shouldn't be signed long-term. Lee turns 31 next year, and it sounds like he'll get at least a 5-year deal worth something like $15 mil. a year.
It's very tempting to try and solve all of your problems by writing one check, but it's also a quick way to dig your hole even deeper. Lee would likely be worth the money for a year or two, but I doubt it would be worth subsidizing his age 36 or 37 season for MVP-money. It would also keep the club on the wrong side of Father Time; if anything, they should be pursuing J.D. Drew, a not-so-flashy guy who's probably a sounder investment, especially over the long term.
There's not much the team can do to improve their offense over the short run. They're stuck with a a few solid players and a few millstones, and really can't afford to add to the latter. The club either needs to get younger or try to contend now without spending money recklessly. But that's a faint hope in Baltimore, where reckless spending might as well be Peter Angelos' nickname.