2015 Predictions

AL EAST

1. Boston Red Sox (88-74)
2. Toronto Blue Jays* (83-79)
3. Baltimore Orioles (80-82)
4. New York Yankees (78-84)
5. Tampa Bay Rays (76-86)

2009 in Review

Time to revisit my preseason predictions.  Unfortunately. 

AL EAST PREDICTED:
New York Yankees (98-64) 96-100 win range
Boston Red Sox (93-69) 91-95 win range
Tampa Bay Rays (87-75) 85-89 win range
Toronto Blue Jays (79-83) 77-81 win range
Baltimore Orioles (73-89) 71-75 win range

And here’s what actually happened:

AL EAST ACTUAL:
New York Yankees (103-59) + 5 Wins
Boston Red Sox (95-67) +2 Wins
Tampa Bay Rays (84-78) -3 Wins
Toronto Blue Jays (75-87) -4 Wins
Baltimore Orioles (64-98) -9 Wins
Other than the Orioles, all of my predictions fell within five wins of the mark, a reasonable margin of error. 

Final 2009 Predictions

American League

NL East
New York Yankees (98-64)
Boston Red Sox* (93-69)
Tampa Bay Rays (87-75)
Toronto Blue Jays (79-83)
Baltimore Orioles (73-89)
* -- denotes Wild Card

NL Central
Cleveland Indians (88-74)
Minnesota Twins (84-78)
Chicago White Sox (79-83)
Detroit Tigers (78-84)
Kansas City Royals (72-90)

NL West
Los Angeles Angels (85-77)
Oakland Athletics (84-78)
Texas Rangers (78-84)
Seattle Mariners (70-92)

ALCS: Yankees over Indians

World Series: Dodgers over Yankees

AL MVP: Mark Teixeira, Yankees

AL Cy Young: Josh Beckett, Red Sox

AL Rookie of the Year: Matt Wieters, Orioles

National League

NL East
New York Mets (95-67)
Philadelphia Phillies* (89-73)
Atlanta Braves (87-75)
Florida Marlins (76-86)
Washington Nationals (65-97)

NL Central
Chicago Cubs (91-71)
St. Louis Cardinals (84-78)
Milwaukee Brewers (80-82)
Cincinnati Reds (78-84)
Houston Astros (67-95)
Pittsburgh Pirates (66-96)

NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers (93-69)
Arizona Diamondbacks (87-75)
San Francisco Giants (78-84)
Colorado Rockies (76-86)
San Diego Padres (62-100)

NLCS: Dodgers over Cubs

World Series: Dodgers over Yankees

NL MVP: David Wright, Mets

NL Cy Young: Johan Santana, Mets

NL Rookie of the Year: Kenshin Kawakami, Braves

World Series Predictions

Rays .vs. Phillies

Offense
The Phillies' offense is centered around a core group of star hitters (Utley, Howard, and Burrell) with a strong 1-2 leadoff tandem in Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino. It's a group that was remarkably productive against two very tough pitching staffs in the NLDS and NLCS. Their weakness is lineup depth; the bottom of the lineup, with the exception of Jayson Werth, if he's not batting second, is very poor. Carlos Ruiz is a good catcher, and Pedro Feliz is a good-glove third baseman, but both are barely above replacement level offensively.
The Rays have a somewhat different problem. They don't have superstar power like the Phillies do (although that's arguable, considering what Longoria and Upton are doing), but they have a much greater depth. The Rays don't often give up on offense from a lineup spot, except for shortstop Jason Bartlett.
Before the postseason, I think I would have given the edge to the Phillies. But now I'm not as certain. The Rays have really done a good job of scoring runs. Even if they don't keep setting home run records, they've got a top-notch offense with star-quality production. And here's what really gives them the edge:

Bench/DH
If the Rays start Rocco Baldelli in right, that leaves either Cliff Floyd, Gabe Gross, or Jonny Gomes as DH. The Phillies don't have anyone remotely comparable to counter with. Their best bet would be Matt Stairs, who would do well against righties but would need a platoon partner (one the Phils don't have) against lefties. And postseason heroics aside, Stairs isn't as good as Cliff Floyd. This gives the Rays a much better set of options, especially in the later innings, and I think it's what gives them the edge on offense.

Starting Pitching

Belated NLCS Predictions / ALCS Comments

So at the end of every year, I take all of the individual and team baseball statistics and churn them. It's a lot like working with butter and the cramping's the same. Unfortunately, I decided to churn the AL before I churned the NL. So I didn't finish churning the NL until midway through Game 2 of the NLCS last night.
Well, my original prediction probably would have been Dodgers in 7. Or Phillies in 7. I'm still not sure which way I would have gone. Besides, making a prediction now would be a lame exercise, since the Phillies took the first two in grand style. Game 2, especially, was pretty captivating. It's high time we saw another LCS go 7 games.
So in lieu of my NLCS predictions, here are a few comments and observations:

AL Central After the Deadline

[Blog deleted because Blogger's blog-writing interface is a piece of crap.]

Most everyone knows the frustration of writing a letter, paper, or essay, and then having it accidentally deleted. Well, we all know most of the ways to avoid this, and most word processing software has come up with failsafes against it.

Not Blogger.

You know how, in a word processor, you can highlight stuff? And then if you push the arrow key right, or down, it takes you to the end of the highlighted portion? Well, on Blogger, they've added a special feature; if you highlight a selection and push an arrow key, it interprets that as "erase."

I was just finishing up my 3-4 hours of work on the AL Central entry. I pushed the letter "A", and accidentally hit "Ctrl" at the same time. This highlighted the entire entry. So when I pushed the next key (a millisecond later), it was all gone.

2008 Season Predictions

American League

AL East:

Boston Red Sox (98-64) 96-100 win range

New York Yankees (93-69) 91-95 win range

Toronto Blue Jays (83-79) 81-85 win range

Tampa Bay Rays (80-82) 78-82 win range

Baltimore Orioles (66-96) 64-68 win range

AL Central:

Cleveland Indians (96-66) 94-98 win range

Detroit Tigers* (96-66) 94-98 win range

Minnesota Twins (82-80) 80-84 win range

Kansas City Royals (78-84) 76-80 win range

Chicago White Sox (71-91) 69-73 win range

AL West:

Los Angeles Angels (97-65) 95-99 win range

Seattle Mariners (85-78) 83-87 win range

Texas Rangers (76-86) 74-78 win range

Oakland Athletics (72-90) 70-74 win range

ALCS: Indians over Red Sox

World Series: Indians over Mets

AL MVP: David Ortiz, Red Sox

AL CY YOUNG: John Lackey, Angels

AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Evan Longoria, Rays

National League

ESPN.com Polls

I'm always interested in a chance to make some predictions for the forthcoming season, if only because it gives me a chance to make some well-documented mistakes before the first pitch of the regular season is thrown (at 6 AM eastern time). ESPN.com is gauging the nation's response to some big issues going into the 2008 season, so I decided to weigh in with my answers and see what the rest of "SportsNation (c)" is thinking.

Q: Who will win the NL East?

WK (Whiz Kid): Mets

SN (SportsNation): Mets (60.7%); Phillies (21.7%); Braves (14.3%); Nationals (1.6%); Marlins (1.4%)

I agree with the prevailing wisdom here, and my reasons will be detailed in my next article, which will be a full-scale round of win-loss predictions for the 2008 season. But suffice to say that the offense is good enough, and if the pitching staff was good enough to come close last year, Johan pushes them over the top. The Phillies will make it interesting, but it's hard to see how any of their off-season gains offset Johan even a smidge. If the Mets lose, it won't be because of the Phillies; it will be because of injury.

Preseason Picks revisited

Well, the time has come to look back at my picks and selections from the 2007 postseason and see how I did.

Here's what I predicted for the NL EAST:

New York (93-69), 91-95 win range
Philadelphia* (87-75), 85-89 win range
Florida (82-80), 80-84 win range
Atlanta (80-82), 78-82 win range
Washington (68-94), 66-70 win range


And here's what really happened:

World Series preview

I know, I know -- it's unfair to send in your World Series predictions after Game 1; especially when Game 1 is an absolute rout. We were following the game during breaks at rehearsal, and at one point, Boston was up 4-1. The cast is mostly rooting for the Rockies, and while I don't have an active rooting interest, I'm backing Boston, since I think they're the better team (more on this later). One of the Colorado fans bet that the Rockies would tie it up in the later innings. I looked right at him and said, "I'll bet that Boston scores 10." They scored 13, actually, and romped to a 13-1 victory.
Jeff Francis took the loss and just judging from the box score, it was a typical Boston dismantling. They worked him to 100 pitches by the 5th inning and got 6 runs off of him. Then they got to knock around the Rockies' bullpen and soften it up for future games. Josh Beckett, on the other hand, gets treated with kid gloves so that he'll be fresh as a daisy in Game 5 -- if there is a Game 5.
Which brings me thus:

2007 WORLD SERIES PREDICTIONS:

Starting Pitching

Playoff Predictions

NLDS

Rockies .vs. Phillies
A lot of this comes down to home-field advantage as the Rockies have played and hit much worse away from Coors Field than at home, even accounting for park effects. The Rockies' offense isn't quite as good as Coors Field makes it look, but by the same token, their pitching isn't as bad, either. The Rockies have much better depth both in the bullpen and in the starting rotation, whereas the Phillies' rotation is Cole Hamels and several guys who shouldn't be pitching in a fly-ball park.

Still, I can't get past the home-field advantage and the Cole Hamels advantage. The Phillies have the best offense in the league, and playing three times in their home park with an ace that the Rockies don't have is enough of an edge for me. I predict a lot of offense, but still some close games where the bullpens play a big part. If the Rockies can keep the Phillies' offense quiet, they might be able to pull one out against the likes of Kyle Kendrick and Jamie Moyer.

Prediction: Phillies in 5

Cubs .vs. Diamondbacks

2007 AL West Predictions

AL WEST:

Los Angeles Angels (94-68) 92-96 win range

Oakland Athletics (92-70) 90-94 win range

Texas Rangers (84-78) 82-86 win range

Seattle Mariners (72-90) 70-74 win range

LOS ANGELES ANGELS

2006 W-L Record: 89-73 (2nd)

2006 pW-pL Record: 84-78

2007 Projection: 94-68

Strengths: Pitching staff; young hitters, Vlad Guerrero
Weaknesses: Impact hitters; offensive depth

Biggest Change from '06: Their top rookies are either in the majors (Weaver, Kendrick) or getting close (Wood)

One Reason:

One Reason the Angels will win in '07 is that their pitching staff is top-notch. The Angels are heading into 2007 with probably the best starting rotation staff in the league. They don't have a big ace (although John Lackey is underrated), but they've got several guys strongly above-average, such as Lackey, Jered Weaver, Kelvim Escobar and Ervin Santana. Bartolo Colon will take the #5 spot, and although he has the potential to perform well, it's doubtful given his health status. Either way, the Angels' starting rotation should give them a chance to win every night, even with their offense.

One Reason the Angels will lose in '07 is -- speaking of that offense . . . The Angels' lineup consists of Vlad Guerrero and a lot of hope. Their other veterans are either expensive guys who are vaguely productive (Gary Matthews, Jr., Orlando Cabrera) or guys with little left to offer (Garret Anderson, Shea Hillenbrand). They do have some quality guys like Juan Rivera and Chone Figgins who have already established themselves in the majors. But the lineup will succeed or fail based on the success of the young talent. And judging from the past couple years, that's not much to hang your hat on.

Notes:

While I'm less than bullish about the Angel's offense, I think their pitching staff can carry them to October. And Mike Scioscia has been able to win with some thin, slap-happy lineups in the past (though none quite this bad).
The other reason I'm picking the Angels to win the division is that I think they're better than the A's, the only other contender in the AL West. Oakland has a more well-rounded ballclub and is certainly capable of repeating as division champions, but they're a worse team than they were last year and still have a lot of questions surrounding their roster, particularly in terms of injuries. So I'm picking the Angels to win by default.

OAKLAND ATHLETICS

2006 W-L Record: 93-69 (1st)
2006 pW-pL Record: 85-77
2007 Projection: 92-70
Strengths: Well-rounded roster; pitching depth

Weaknesses: Thin offense; few star pitchers
Biggest Change from '06: The loss of Barry Zito, followed closely by the loss of Frank Thomas
One Reason:
One Reason the A's will win in '07 is that they've done a great job of overcoming obstacles over the past seven years or so, and there's no better example than 2006. They had a disappointing lineup then with lots of injuries. They also had a pitching staff with good depth, but no real stars. They beat out the Angels last year despite these flaws, and they're perfectly capable of doing it again this year.

One Reason the A's will lose in '07 is that they're just not as good as they were last year, and they can't keep pace with the Angels by moving backwards. I completely agree that Barry Zito is overrated, but he's still a hard guy to replace in your rotation (although a healthy Rich Harden would help). Frank Thomas was an offensive star last year, and it's hard to see the A's making up for his loss, even with the signing of Mike Piazza.
Notes:

The A's would get a big boost if they could keep even half of last year's walking wounded healthy this year. Rich Harden is priority #1, but they also lost a lot when their middle infield went down (as evidenced in the playoffs, when they started D'Angelo Jimenez at second base). Marco Scutaro is a great backup, but he shouldn't be getting more than 300 at bats.
The A's are also counting on some declining stars to fill in the gaps. There's little chance of Jason Kendall or Mark Kotsay turning things around for a career year, even though they're two guys who can at least be counted upon to stay healthy. Esteban Loaiza wasn't that bad in 2006, but he's not going to fill Barry Zito's shoes.
No, as much as I think the A's will be competitive, I don't see them making the postseason.

TEXAS RANGERS

2006 W-L Record: 80-82 (3rd)
2006 pW-pL Record: 86-76
2007 Projection: 84-78
Strengths: Infield offense; stabilized pitching staff

Weaknesses: Outfield offense; quality and depth of pitching staff
Biggest Change from '06: Nothing significant, other than switching out John Danks for Brandon McCarthy
One Reason:
One Reason the Rangers will win in '07 is that the Angels and A's engage in an on-field brawl that results in full-season suspensions for all 50 players involved.

One Reason the Rangers will lose in '07 is that they're simply not as good as the Angels or A's. Their offense is strong, but not as strong as the ballpark makes it seem. The Rangers are still running out a bare outfield, and they can't count on a lot of production from catcher (Laird) or third base (Blalock) either. Their pitching staff is improving, but it's still not good enough to push this team much past .500.
Notes:

The Rangers will have a tough time simply maintaining what they accomplished last year. Granted, there is room for improvement; Brad Wilkerson and Mark Teixeira should have better years, and the addition of Brandon McCarthy gives the team a reliable #3 for the first time in recent memory. But although this team is taking baby steps forward, they're still not really contenders.

SEATTLE MARINERS

2006 W-L Record: 78-84 (4th)
2006 pW-pL Record: 78-84
2007 Projection: 72-90
Strengths: Infield corners; Outfield; Rotation depth

Weaknesses: Power; Rotation quality; Middle relief
Biggest Change from '06: Added depth of Miguel Batista and Jeff Weaver
One Reason:
One Reason the Mariners will win in '07 is by forfeit.

One Reason the Mariners will lose in '07 is if they just keep doing what they've been doing.
Notes:

I may be too pessimistic about the Mariners. Yes, they improved their starting rotation in the offseason (but at what cost?). And yeah, their offense isn't that bad. Or is it? Really, they've got a star in Ichiro, a few solid players (Sexson, Beltre, Johjima, Ibanez) and then nada. Adding in Jose Guillen and Jose Vidro isn't going to help anything.
And it should be said that the Mariners gave up Rafael Soriano for nothing (viz: Horacio Ramirez), thereby hurting their middle relief prospects. And while the M's did improve their rotation, it was pretty bad to begin with, and no one would call Miguel Batista and Jeff Weaver money in the bank.

GM Bill Bavasi was trying to save his job, and I doubt it will result in much headway out on the field.

2007 AL Central Predictions

AL CENTRAL

Cleveland Indians (94-68) 92-96 win range

*Minnesota Twins (93-69) 91-95 win range

Detroit Tigers (90-72) 88-92 win range

Chicago White Sox (88-74) 86-90 win range

Kansas City Royals (63-99) 61-65 win range

CLEVELAND INDIANS

2006 W-L Record: 78-84 (4th)

2006 pW-pL Record: 89-73

2007 Projection: 94-68

Strengths: Offense, Pitching depth

Weaknesses: Rotation star quality; Bullpen

Biggest Change from '06: Not a lot; full year of Jeremy Sowers, Josh Barfield at second base, stronger outfield offense

One Reason:

One Reason the Indians will win in '07 is that they were good enough to win it the last two years, but had everything go wrong for them. There's a strong possibility that there's more than bad luck to this, but you can't deny the Indians' big-time talent.

One Reason the Indians will lose in '07 is that their pitching staff is the 4th-best in their division. They've got several solid guys in the rotation, but no real ace and a lot of questions at the back of the pack (Paul Byrd?). Their bullpen is a work in progress once again, and could prove to be the difference between making the postseason and finishing just short -- which would be an eerie repeat of 2005.

Notes:

The Indians have a top-notch, solid young offense. They've got impact players in Travis Hafner, Grady Sizemore, and Victor Martinez. They've also added a stronger supporting cast, especially in the outfield, where the addition of Trot Nixon and David Dellucci should add strong depth at a reasonable price. There's also some high hopes for Ryan Garko at first base, if he ends up in the role full-time.

MINNESOTA TWINS

2006 W-L Record: 96-66 (1st)
2006 pW-pL Record: 93-69
2007 Projection: 93-69
Strengths: Impact players; young pitching, Johan Santana
Weaknesses: Offensive depth, back end of rotation
Biggest Change from '06: No Francisco Liriano
One Reason:
One Reason the Twins will win in '07 is they are, all-around, one of the strongest clubs in baseball. Each of their weaknesses is somewhat compensated for. The lack of experience of their young pitchers is compensated for by the fact that there are several of them, and each of them has very good potential. There's also Johan Santana, the superstar rock of the pitching world. Their lack of offensive depth is made up for by the presence of MVP-caliber players such as Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau.

One Reason the Twins will lose in '07 is that they just barely made the playoffs last year, and it's hard to believe that they're a better team this year. They've lost Francisco Liriano, an excellent pitcher, and will have to deal with the likely regression of hitters such as Michael Cuddyer, Nick Punto, and Justin Bartlett. It will be very hard to bridge this gap in a division where there's no room for taking a step back.
Notes:

The Twins have a good chance to stay in the race all season, and in my opinion, they've got what it takes to win the Wild Card. This isn't without a few caveats; I'm counting on some strong performances from the Twins' young starters (Garza, Bonser, etc.) as well as a strong lineup up and down the order. It's a lot to ask for, but I think that with Santana, Mauer, and Morneau, they've got a head start on everybody else.

DETROIT TIGERS

2006 W-L Record: 95-67 (2nd)
2006 pW-pL Record: 95-67
2007 Projection: 90-72
Strengths: Young pitching; power
Weaknesses: Patience; Fluke factor
Biggest Change from '06: Gary Sheffield: power + patience in one surly package
One Reason:
One Reason the Tigers will win in '07 is that they could end up winning just as they did in 2006 -- with dominant pitching and big power. There's room for improvement, with Gary Sheffield added and Joel Zumaya (hopefully) closing by season's end. If Placido Polanco and Carlos Guillen can stay healthy, the Tigers will contend.

One Reason the Tigers will lose in '07 is that there's also a lot of room for regression. Like the Twins, the Tigers got into the playofffs last year by a nose, and it's not clear that they've improved a lot in the offseason. Adding Sheffield helps, but he's getting more and more brittle, and his MVP days are probably behind him. There's a lot of room for regression in the rotation, too, with Justin Verlander entering an uncertain sophomore season, Kenny Rogers another year older, and guys like Nate Robertson and Mark Maroth not exactly inspiring confidence.
Notes:

Unlike the Twins, the Tigers don't have any real impact players, and neither do they have the same farm systen depth to compensate for underachievers. It's a close call, but I'm picking the Tigers to just miss the playoffs.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX

2006 W-L Record: 90-72 (3rd)
2006 pW-pL Record: 88-74
2007 Projection: 88-74
Strengths: Pitching durability, power
Weaknesses: Lineup holes, Thinned-out rotation
Biggest Change from '06: Loss of Freddy Garcia
One Reason:
One Reason the White Sox will win in '07 is that they're a well-rounded ballclub. They've got a pretty good bullpen with a good (if volatile) closer, a good starting rotation that goes deep into ballgames, and several legitimate offensive threats.

One Reason the White Sox will lose in '07 is that they've taken a step back from '06. Replacing Freddy Garcia with Gavin Floyd is a loss in the short-term, and there are still big questions surrounding Juan Uribe's ability to play every day while facing murder charges in the Dominican. With John Danks, Ryan Sweeney, and Josh Fields, the Sox have the impact players to step in and produce in the majors. But there's just not much evidence that the Sox are significant better than they were in 2006. And in this division, treading water just isn't enough.
Notes:

The Sox are a pretty reliable 85-90 win team, but it's tough to project beyond that. Any scenario that sees them winning more than 90 games requires a rebound by starters Mark Buehrle and Jon Garland as well as solid production from their young prospects.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS

2006 W-L Record: 62-100 (5th)
2006 pW-pL Record: 63-99
2007 Projection: 63-99
Strengths: Young hitters
Weaknesses: The entire pitching staff, skilled defensive positions
Biggest Change from '06: The ascension of Alex Gordon
One Reason:

One Reason the Royals will win in '07 is that their hitting prospects reach the majors and make an immediate impact.

One Reason the Royals will lose in '07 is that their pitching staff is abysmal and not likely to get much better.
Notes:

The Gil Meche contract is what everyone will be focusing on this year. And once it goes down in flames, we'll be able to move on and look at the mess that is the Royals' pitching staff. With their young hitters, the Royals have the chance to field a league-average offense quite soon. But there's little prospect for improvement in their pitching staff, which is probably why management got desperate and signed Meche. And while Meche is a notch above the other Royal starters, that's a very dubious honor.

We'll finish up with the NL West soon.

2007 American League Predictions

AL EAST:
New York Yankees (96-66) 94-98 win range
Boston Red Sox (91-71) 89-93 win range
Toronto Blue Jays (88-74) 86-90 win range
Baltimore Orioles (75-87) 73-77 win range
Tampa Bay Devil Rays (69-93) 67-71 win range

AL CENTRAL:
Cleveland Indians (94-68) 92-96 win range
*Minnesota Twins (93-69) 91-95 win range
Detroit Tigers (90-72) 88-92 win range
Chicago White Sox (88-74) 86-90 win range
Kansas City Royals (63-99) 61-65 win range

AL WEST:
Los Angeles Angels (94-68) 92-96 win range
Oakland Athletics (92-70) 90-94 win range
Texas Rangers (84-78) 82-86 win range
Seattle Mariners (72-90) 70-74 win range

AL MVP: Travis Hafner, Indians

AL CY YOUNG: Johan Santana, Twins

AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Alex Gordon, Royals

ALCS: Yankees over Indians

WS: Yankees over Dodgers

AL EAST

NEW YORK YANKEES

2006 W-L Record: 97-65 (1st)

2006 pW-pL Record: 95-67

2007 Projection: 96-66

Strengths: Offense, disposable cash

Weaknesses: Rotation star quality; bullpen depth; first base

Biggest Change from '06: Kei Igawa

One Reason:
One reason the Yankees will win in '07 is the same reason they've won for years: a strong offense supports a merely capable pitching staff.
One reason the Yankees will lose in '07 is that their lineup isn't as strong as it looks. Everyone's getting older, and replacing Gary Sheffield with Doug Mientkiewicz is pretty significant. The same could be said of their rotation, with questions surrounding Andy Pettite, Chien-Ming Wang, and Kei Igawa, not to mention whomever fills in at 5th starter until Phillip Hughes comes up. Switching out Randy Johnson for Igawa at least gives them fewer age-related issues.

Notes:

The Yankees are, as always, strong favorites to reach October. For all the questions and concerns there are surrounding the Yankees, we have to remember that the Yanks have similar issues every season for a while now and have still managed to weather the storm and make the postseason. They've got the money, they've got Phillip Hughes, and they've got a much better-run front office with Brian Cashman calling the shots. It will be a tighter race than it was last year, but I think the Bombers still have the edge.

BOSTON RED SOX

2006 W-L Record: 86-76 (3rd)
2006 pW-pL Record: 81-81
2007 Projection: 95-67
Strengths: Impact hiters, pitching depth, Dice-K
Weaknesses: Bullpen, offensive depth
Biggest Change from '06: Dice-K
One Reason:
One Reason the BoSox will win in '07 is that they've got the impact hitters and the impact pitchers. The supporting cast may not be what it was in 2004, but they've got Manny & Papi in the lineup and Schilling-Matsuzaka-Papelbon-Beckett in the rotation.

One Reason the BoSox will lose in '07 is because their supporting cast really is an issue. The Sox' batting order is strong 1-6 (Lugo, Youkilis, Papi, Manny, Drew, Lowell), but they've got big questions surrounding Jason Varitek, Coco Crisp, and Dustin Pedroia. If those three come through, then the Sox could have the best offense in the league. But if even two of them come up empty, then the Sox will struggle like they did down the stretch last year. The same is true in the bullpen, where Joel Pineiro (I'm still convinced this is a crazy plan) is anchoring a less-than-stellar lot.
Notes:

(If you read my NL entry and wonder what happened to my prediction that the Sox would win the Series, I changed my mind when I started preparing this entry. Ask me again tomorrow and I may change my mind, but with Boston's bullpen troubles and lineup holes, I don't think they can beat out the Twins, White Sox, A's and maybe even Tigers).

Just like last year, the Sox are a volatile team. If everything goes right, from Matsuzaka's debut to Schilling's conditioning, to Beckett's homers, to Papelbon's transition, to Drew's health, to Crisp's recovery, to Pedroia's debut, to Pineiro's role change, then the Sox are contenders. But that's a whole lot of conditions to meet, and the Sox will have to meet nearly all of them to win the Wild Card.
That 2006 Pythagorean record scares me. Have the Sox really added 15 true wins this offseason?

TORONTO BLUE JAYS

2006 W-L Record: 87-75 (2nd)
2006 pW-pL Record: 86-76
2007 Projection: 88-74
Strengths: Star pitchers, middle of the order
Weaknesses: Back of rotation, middle infield
Biggest Change from '06: Frank Thomas
One Reason:

One Reason the Jays will win in '07 is that they keep anything big from going wrong. Their offense looks strong, and while they're getting zero production from the middle infield, they should be pretty potent none the less, especially when Adam Lind gets a full-time job. Their rotation isn't very impressive after Halladay and Burnett, but the Jays have several guys (Chacin, Thomson, Ohka) who can at least keep the team in games. The Blue Jays may survive not because they're better than the other teams, but because they have much less potential to suck.

One Reason the Jays will lose in '07 is that they're in the wrong league. It used to be that they were in the wrong division, but with the ascension of the AL Central and the A's-Angels twin towers out west, the Jays aren't going to catch any breaks when it comes to reaching the postseason. It's highly unlikely that the Jays will be the best team in their division, which means they're going to have to compete against four or five other teams in the Wild Card race who are just as good and probably better.
Notes:

The Jays did finish second last year and show promising improvement that's supported by the Pythagorean numbers. It wouldn't be a terrific surprise if they won 95 games, but they're much less likely to do it than most teams in the race.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES:

2006 W-L Record: 70-92 (4th)
2006 pW-pL Record: 69-93
2007 Projection: 75-87
Strengths: Young Pitching, Nick Markakis, Miguel Tejada
Weaknesses: Everything else
Biggest Change from '06: A full season of Nick Markakis
One Reason:
One Reason the Orioles will win in '07 is they go see the opera "Faust" and get an idea.

One Reason the Orioles will lose in '07 . . . one reason?
Notes:

It's not the like the Orioles aren't doing anything right. They've graduated some quality arms to the big leagues and have an impact player in right fielder Nick Markakis. But after Tejada, Brian Roberts and Ramon Hernandez, the lineup is pretty drab. Plus there are no guarantees about the potency of their young pitchers, especially Daniel Cabrera. Their farm system has some gems at the lower levels but no one ready to fill holes in the big leagues. There's no reason to expect the Orioles to contend in the near future.

TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS

2006 W-L Record: 61-101
2006 pW-pL Record: 65-97
2007 Projection: 69-93
Strengths: Young hitters, farm system
Weaknesses: Pitching staff, mismanagement of prospects, general sucktitude
Biggest Change from '06: (Hopefully) Getting B.J. Upton and Delmon Young in the majors
One Reason:
One Reason the Rays will win in '07 is that their offensive prospects step in and add potency to a depressingly bad lineup. Even with Carl Crawford and a healthy Rocco Baldelli, the '06 Rays finished a distant last in runs scored (4.25 R/G) in the AL. There's a long way to go before they can become a real threat, but they've got the top-notch talent (Upton, Young, Akinori Iwamura) to make a significant impact right away.

One Reason the Rays will lose in '07 is that their pitching staff is equally awful, but with little prospect for improvement. The Rays finished 12th out of 14 AL teams in runs allowed last year (5.28 RA/G). Part of that is due to a bad defense, yes, but even so, there are no saviors in the farm system to help them out here. There is some hope, but nothing like a B.J. Upton or Delmon Young.
Notes:

Even if the Rays' offense skyrockets up to 4th or 5th place in the league, their pitching is still so bad that it wouldn't guarantee them more than 80 wins or so. The 2007 version of the Devil Rays could be the best ever for the franchise, but that standard is so woefully low that it's hard to get excited about.

Back later with the AL Central.

He deserved this.

2007 National League Predictions

NL EAST:

New York Mets (93-69) 91-95 win range

*Philadelphia Phillies (87-75) 85-89 win range

Florida Marlins (82-80) 80-84 win range

Atlanta Braves (80-82) 78-82 win range

Washington Nationals (68-94) 66-70 win range

NL CENTRAL:
St. Louis Cardinals (86-76) 84-88 win range

Milwaukee Brewers (83-79) 81-85 win range

Chicago Cubs (78-84) 76-80 win range

Cincinnati Reds (78-84) 76-80 win range

Houston Astros (75-87) 73-77 win range

Pittsburgh Pirates (69-93) 67-71 win range

NL WEST:

Los Angeles Dodgers (94-68) 92-96 win range
Arizona Diamondbacks (85-77) 83-87 win range

San Diego Padres (84-78) 82-86 win range

Colorado Rockies (78-84) 76-80 win range

San Francisco Giants (73-89) 71-75 win range

NL MVP: Albert Pujols, Cardinals

NL CY YOUNG: Jake Peavy, Padres

NL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Chris Young, Diamondbacks

NLCS: Dodgers over Cardinals

WS: Yankees over Dodgers

NL EAST

NEW YORK METS
2006 W-L Record: 97-65 (1st)

2006 pW-pL Record: 91-71

2007 Projection: 93-69

Strengths: Offense at skilled defensive positions; money; closer; trading chips

Weaknesses: Starting pitching x 10; Corner Outfielders

Biggest Change from 2006: Pedro no mas

One Reason:
One Reason the Mets will win in '07 is that they have the best team in the NL East (good reason). All of the concern about the Mets' starters is warranted, but they do have a lot of them lying around, and they don't need to be dominant for the Mets to win the east.

One Reason the Mets will lose in '07 is, of course, their starting rotation. The Mets can win without a dominant rotation, but it will be damn difficult. I seriously doubt the Mets will run away with the NL East like they did in '06. A lot of their success depends on acquiring another starting pitcher. Even considering the competition, you can't just pencil the Mets in as NL East Champions with that rotation.

Notes:

It's because of their starting pitching woes that I can't see the Mets advancing far in October. I give Omar Minaya the benefit of the doubt that he can make a move or two to shore up this woeful rotation. But I don't think there will be any "miracles" this year.
I should say, though, that I think Minaya did a good job filling the holes in his offense. Second base is still a concern, but it's a slow market for second baseman, and Jose Valentin did a good job last year. He also snagged Moises Alou to shore up the corner outfield spots offensively. I probably shouldn't have listed the corner outfield spots as a weakness, except that I feel pretty certain that we'll be seeing too much of Shawn Green and not enough of Lastings Milledge.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

2006 W-L Record: 85-77 (2nd)

2006 pW-pL Record: 86-76

2007 Projection: 87-75

Strengths: Offense, duh; 1-2-3 starters

Weaknesses: third base; catcher; back of rotation; bullpen

Biggest Change from 2006: Freddy Garcia and Cole Hamels should help the Phillies over the hump and back into October.

One Reason:

One Reason the Phillies will win in '07 is their powerful offense and improved rotation depth.

One Reason the Phillies will lose in '07 is the quality of their starting rotation (cross your finger for Moyer/Eaton) and their spotty lineup (Wes F'n Helms?!)

Notes:
I actually didn't have the Phillies picked as my NL Wild Card team; I had the Diamondbacks. But then I listed out my win probabilities and realized that I actually thought the Phillies would win more games than the D-Backs. And winning more games than someone is a sure-fire way to beat them in a pennant race.
Truth be told, my guess for the Phillies is pretty optimistic, and my range for the D-Backs is too narrow. Arizona has far more upside than Philadelphia, but it's so uncertain that I went with the safe choice. Granted, this also enables me to have two picks for the Wild Card: my real pick and my real real pick. Some may say it's cheatin', I say it's thinkin'.

FLORIDA MARLINS

2006 W-L Record: 78-84 (4th)
2006 pW-pL Record: 80-82
2007 Projection: 82-80
Strengths: Youth; Bargain Value; Pitching Depth; Miguel Cabrera
Weaknesses: Youth; Bargain Value; Fluky Nature of '06
Biggest Change from 2006: Everybody's a year older (which isn't usually good news in Florida, but it is here)
One Reason:
One Reason the Marlins will win in '07 is their break-out potential. The Marlins have a solid core of young talent that will play .500 baseball most likely. But they have several young players with the chance to break out (Jeremy Hermida, most of their pitchers) and push them into Wild Card contention.

One Reason the Marlins will lose in '07 is that their 2006 success is hard to repeat. All of their rookies were so good, and so many of them reached their potential in 2006, that's there's not a lot of room for upward expansion. In fact, it's more realistic to expect several guys to suffer setbacks. We've already seen it start among the young pitchers (Jason Johnson, Anibal Sanchez), and it's likely to cascade. The only sure thing is Miguel Cabrera's MVP Candidacy.
The Marlins will most likely do in 2007 what they did in 2006: make an encouraging but unsuccessful run at the Wild Card.
Notes:

As I said before, the main reason I'm less than optimistic about the Marlins is that it's hard to repeat great luck with rookies like they had last year. A good comparison would be the 2005 Braves. The '05 Braves had that amazing rookie class that helped propel them into the postseason. But in 2006, most of those guys experienced (perfectly normal) growing pains and sophomore slumps.
It's great when you have everything go right for you. The only downside is knowing that you probably won't be as lucky again in the future. Long-term, the Marlins are on the path to contention, but it's a stretch to expect them to make the leap this season.

ATLANTA BRAVES

2006 W-L Record: 79-83 (3rd)
2006 pW-pL Record: 85-77
2007 Projection: 80-82
Strengths: Strong core contributors; improved bullpen; Brian McCann
Weaknesses: Core contributors are old and getting brittle; weak rotation; lineup depth
Biggest Change from 2006: Losing the right side of your infield in exchange for a relief pitcher. Mmwhat?
One Reason:

One Reason the Braves will win in '07 is that they're the Braves, and they've done stranger things before. I may be pessimistic about their young talent, but that doesn't mean it's not still there.

One Reason the Braves won't win in '07 is that Chipper Jones is still playing third base. This means more bad defense and another 40-50 games from their best hitter lost to the DL.
Notes:

I remember when I used to complain every Spring Training about how depressing it was to know the Braves were going to win just to lose in October. I miss those days.
The Braves' Pythagorean record was very encouraging last year, suggesting that they were much closer to contention than they looked. But it's hard for me to believe that an 85-win team can get better when they lose a pretty good right side of the infield for no apparent reason. The two best players on this team are Chipper and Smoltz, and they're getting much older.
I guess I can use all my experience as a devotee of a doomed October team and become a Yankee fan.
Yeah, right.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS

2006 W-L Record: 71-91 (5th)
2006 pW-pL Record: 70-92
2007 Projection: 68-94
Strengths: Ryan Zimmerman
Weaknesses: About everything else
Biggest Change from 2006: The starting rotation is now completely gutted; Tim Redding is their #2 starter!
One Reason:

One Reason the Nats will win in '07 is that theirs is the only fanbase with the power of federal subpoena.
One Reason the Nats will lose in '07 is that they're a bad, hopeless baseball team . . . What? That's only one.
Notes:
Baseball America's 2007 Prospect Handbook rates the Nats' prospects as the worst in baseball. Their "Impact" grade is a D, and their "Depth" grade is an F. It's really scary that such a barren major league team has such little support in the minors.
On the bright side though, things really are improving. Granted, it would be hard for them not to improve, but the Nats have done several things to provide themselves with depth in the lower minor leagues, from drafting better to making better trades. Even GM Jim Bowden, whom I admittedly give a hard time, has done a better job of handling the team. He's apparently seen the folly of the attempted quick fix (a la Cristian Guzman or Vinny Castilla) and seems to committed to overhauling the franchise from the bottom up. The Nats have a new ballpark opening up soon, which gives them a bit of a target date for rebooting the club. It also gives them the promise of extra cash in the future and gives their fans something to hope for while the current incarnation stumbles back to last place.

Things are getting better in Washington. But it sure as hell won't look any better in 2007.

Back later with the other divisions.