Preseason picks revisited

MY NL EAST PREDICTIONS:

* -- denotes Wild Card



New York Mets (97-65) 95-99 win range

Philadelphia Phillies* (91-71) 89-93 win range

Atlanta Braves (84-78) 82-86 win range

Washington Nationals (73-89) 71-75 win range

Florida Marlins (65-97) 63-67 win range



And here's what really happened (and how much I was off):



Philadelphia Phillies (92-70) +1 wins

New York Mets (89-73) -8 wins

Florida Marlins (84-77) +19 wins

Atlanta Braves (72-90) -12 wins

Washington Nationals (59-102) -14 wins



This was not one of my better predictions. I got the Phillies almost exactly right, correctly predicting that they would win a postseason spot. But I overestimated the Mets, thinking surely they wouldn't screw it up two years in a row. But they did.

In the bottom of the division, though, I was way off. I didn't see the Marlins' surge coming, and I really should have, at least to recognize their breakout potential. I missed big on the Braves, but when you consider their Pythagorean record (79-83), I wasn't so off. As for the Nats, I just thought they had hit bottom last year and would rebound. Little did I know . . .



MY NL CENTRAL PREDICTIONS:



Chicago Cubs (95-67) 93-97 win range

Milwaukee Brewers (90-72) 88-92 win range

Cincinnati Reds (85-77) 83-87 win range

St. Louis Cardinals (78-84) 76-80 win range

Pittsburgh Pirates (74-88) 72-76 win range

Houston Astros (73-89) 71-75 win range



And here's how it really turned out:



Chicago Cubs (97-64) +2 wins

Milwaukee Brewers* (90-72) Exactly Right!

Houston Astros (86-75) +13 wins

St. Louis Cardinals (86-76) +8 wins

Cincinnati Reds (74-88) -11 wins

Pittsburgh Pirates (67-95) -7 wins



Yay for my first perfect prediction! Granted, I thought the Brewers would miss the postseason, but don't look Exactly Right in the mouth, or something like that. And hey, I got the Cubs within my win range, too.
I missed on the Astros, but I'm calling that one due to luck -- the Astros' Pythagorean record was 77-84, much closer to my win range.
I was way off on the Reds, and for once, that's because I was too optimistic about them. I thought that with the talent they had on the field, they'd be able to put together a winning season in '08. That didn't work out for a variety of reasons, and the Reds ended up right back at the bottom of the division. And it looks like I was also too early in predicting an improvement from Pittsburgh.



MY NL WEST PREDICTIONS:



Colorado Rockies (92-70) 90-94 win range

Arizona Diamondbacks (90-72) 88-92 win range

Los Angeles Dodgers (88-74) 86-90 win range

San Diego Padres (83-79) 81-85 win range

San Francisco Giants (61-101) 59-63 win range



And the unfortunate reality:



Los Angeles Dodgers (84-78) -4 wins

Arizona Diamondbacks (82-80), -8 wins

Colorado Rockies (74-88) -18 wins

San Francisco Giants (72-90) +11 wins

San Diego Padres (63-99) -20 wins



I overrated basically the entire division. The Giants were the only team I underrated. As for the Rockies . . . well, I'll just admit I don't know everything and move on before it gets too embarassing.
I wasn't too far off on the Dodgers or the D-Backs, I just had them in the wrong place. As for the Padres, my only excuse is that I wasn't the only one who thought they'd be respectable. I think their collapse took a lot of people by surprise. So I'll just hide sheepishly in that crowd . . .



MY POSTSEASON/AWARDS:

NLCS: Mets over Cubs

World Series: Indians over Mets

NL MVP: Jose Reyes, Mets

NL Cy Young: Johan Santana, Mets

NL Rookie of the Year: Colby Rasmus, Cardinals



Yeah, I had the Indians and Mets in the Series. And I know, that didn't work out too well for me. If the Mets made the series, I figured Reyes would be the one to get the credit for it, as would Santana. As it turned out, I wasn't too wrong about Santana; he finished 3rd in the Cy Young voting. As for Rasmus, I made a wild pick here on purpose, going with a guy who was a top prospect with a spot open in the majors for him. As it turned out, Rasmus didn't make it, and the Cardinal outfield filled up with solid players (Schumacker, Ankiel, Ludwick).



MY AL EAST PREDICTIONS:

Boston Red Sox (98-64), 96-100 win range

New York Yankees (93-69) 91-95 win range

Toronto Blue Jays (83-79), 81-85 win range

Tampa Bay Rays (80-82), 78-82 win range

Baltimore Orioles (66-96), 64-68 win range



What really happened:



Tampa Bay Rays (97-65) +17 wins

Boston Red Sox* (95-67) -3 wins

New York Yankees (89-73) -4 wins

Toronto Blue Jays (86-76) +3 wins

Baltimore Orioles (68-93) +2 wins



This was my best-predicted division by far, and it would have been nearly perfect if not for those darn Rays. Understand that I felt like I was stretching it to predict 80 wins from them. That's how amazing their 2008 was. Other than that, I got four teams within four wins of their total. That's pretty darn good. It almost redeems my poor NL performance. Almost . . .



MY AL CENTRAL PREDICTIONS:



Cleveland Indians (96-66) 94-98 win range

Detroit Tigers* (96-66) 94-98 win range

Minnesota Twins (82-80) 80-84 win range

Kansas City Royals (78-84) 76-80 win range

Chicago White Sox (71-91) 69-73 win range



The awful truth:



Chicago White Sox (89-74) +18 wins

Minnesota Twins (88-75) +6 wins

Cleveland Indians (81-81) -15 wins

Kansas City Royals (75-87) -3 wins
Detroit Tigers (74-88) -22 wins



Let's never speak of this again.



MY AL WEST PREDICTIONS:



Los Angeles Angels (97-65) 95-99 win range
Seattle Mariners (85-78) 83-87 win range
Texas Rangers (76-86) 74-78 win range

Oakland Athletics (72-90) 70-74 win range



And the real finish:



Los Angeles Angels (100-62) +3 wins

Texas Rangers (79-83) +3 wins

Oakland Athletics (75-86) +3 wins

Seattle Mariners (61-101) -24 wins



So this was a great prediction until you take into account my worst prediction of all, the Mariners. To be fair, I was more skeptical than many observers, who picked them to win the division.



MY AL AWARDS/POSTSEASON:



ALCS: Indians over Red Sox

WS: Indians over Mets

AL MVP: David Ortiz, Red Sox

AL Cy Young: John Lackey, Angels

AL Rookie of the Year: Evan Longoria, Rays



I had one part of this right; I had the Red Sox losing a close ALCS, I just had the wrong team winning. For the awards, I felt that one of these years, Ortiz would get the credit for the Sox' success and win an MVP. But it looks like he may never win one. Lackey was a solid pick for Cy Young, and he pitched well, but he missed too much time to injuries to be in the running. And while my Longoria pick was correct, it was also less than bold.



Here's hoping that I do a much, MUCH better job next year. I'm glad I don't do this for a living.