Matsuzaka news

• After reports that the talks were hopelessly stalled, it looks like a deal or Daisuke Matsuzaka has been agreed upon. Boston GM Theo Epstein and President Larry Lucchino flew out to meet personally with Scott Boras. Progress was made quickly in the negotiations, but both sides were still apart by about $4 mil./year. The deadline for a deal was essentially by this afternoon, as the Sox needed Matsuzaka to fly back to Boston to pass a physical before the deal could be finalized. Word was that Epstein & Lucchino would be flying back to Boston today with or without Dice-K.
  And the Red Sox fans rejoiced when the word went out that they were coming back with Matsuzaka. Boras had previously stated that he wouldn't let Dice-K fly to Boston unless a deal was in place, so we can take this as a good sign that the sides have come to at least a preliminary arrangement.
  Word on the contract figure is 6 years/$52 million. If that sounds hideously low, it's because the Red Sox are factoring in the $51.1 million posting fee. The hold-up in the negotations came when Boras insisted that Dice-K get market value, regardless of the posting fee. If the $52 million figure is correct, then Boras must have caved somewhat (the deal also includes escalators that could raise it to $60 million).
  Is it a good deal for the Red Sox? Absolutely. It comes along with all of the risk of signing a free agent pitcher, especially sight unseen from another continent. But every indication is that Dice-K will pitch like a strong #2, if not an ace. There is downside in the deal, yes, but it's one of the best of the off-season, along with the Schmidt contract.
  Despite being two years younger than Gil Meche, Matsuzaka got the same contract length. And even if you add the posting fee in, the Sox will be spending about $103 million over 6 years, which comes down to about $17.2 million per year. We have to take into account, though, that the $51 million bid isn't factored into the luxury tax, so the Sox will save some money there. There are also the fringe benefits (which have been somewhat overstated) of having a Japanese player on your squad, especially if you haven't already mined that revenue stream. Factoring all of this in, the contract looks entirely reasonable for Boston, especially in the context of this inflated off-season.
  With Matsuzaka signed (and the bar set), we should see some progress in the Yankees' negotiations with Kei Igawa. There has also been a holdup in the Devil Rays' negotiations with Akinori Iwamura. The Rays' only bid a fraction of the $51 million it took to get Matsuzaka. And Iwamura projects to be a very good hitter either at second or third base. Nate Silver's projection for him (posted on BP) is a batting line of 275/354/445. Combine that with what is (reportedly) good defense from a third baseman (although he could shift to second), and we've got a better version of Tadahito Iguchi. Iwamura could make an All-Star team or two (especially considering the team), but it's doubtful that he'll be a major force. Still, the Rays' woeful offense could use above-average production from a key defensive position, especially if it comes with above-average defense.
• The Blue Jays have reportedly offered CF Vernon Wells a 7-year, $126 million contract. Both Wells and the Jays have confirmed the offer, but the number is still a rumor.
  While I do think that the Jays would like to keep Wells, I see this move as a pretty bold bargaining move. Reports came out of Toronto last year that Wells wanted to leave Toronto when his time was up, which got a big negative reaction from the Jays. If the Jays make this offer (if the numbers are true), and Wells doesn't accept, then the Toronto front office has successfully cast themselves as the good guys. If Wells doesn't accept this contract, he will most definitely look like the bad guy, and the Toronto fans won't make his walk year very pleasant. The ball is in his court, and I don't think it's by accident.
  Perhaps I'm being too cynical to look for ulterior motives in the Jays' offer. I don't really doubt that they'd like to keep Wells. But I'd love to know who leaked that number to the press. The Jays may feel that if they put Wells on the spot in public, he'll feel more inclined to sign.
  For the record, I'm not convinced that Wells is worth $18 mil. per year. He's a troubling case to evaluate; he's had two very good seasons, 2003 and 2006. But in between, he was just above-average. Which is the real Vernon Wells? The Jays would love to know for sure. And signing him to a near-Soriano contract is a pretty big risk, especially when there are several center fielders scheduled to go on the market in 2007.
• There's a funny article in BP Unfiltered by Nate Silver, who runs the PECOTA forecasts. PECOTA thrives by coming up for comparable players for every player in baseball. This can be difficult with guys like Barry Bonds and Julio Franco, who are unique on the historic level.
  But none of them brought the system to its knees, as did minor league pitcher Jason Neighborgall. The aspect of Neighborgall's game that made PECOTA cower in fear was this:
  In 13 IP last year (in the Rookie leagues), Neighborgall walked 46 batters.
  Wait -- is that really 46 walks in 13 innings? Yes, it is. Jason makes "Wild Thing" Vaughn look like Greg Maddux. His walk rate is 31.85 per 9 innings.
  Silver calls him The Man Who Broke PECOTA.

More action from Orlando

There are no big trades to report, as it looks like Manny Ramirez is mos' definitely a Boston Red Sox for 2007. There were several free agent signings, and some other tasty newsbites:

• The Dodgers signed free agent Jason Schmidt to a 3-year deal for $47 mil. $15 mil/year is a lot of money, but this contract is still a steal. Schmidt is still capable of pitching like a Cy Young candidate, and the Dodgers were somehow able to limit him to a 3-year contract, which is ideal for him. Schmidt's contract will end up being infinitely more reasonable than that given to Barry Zito, who isn't as good a pitcher, and whose only advantage over Schmidt is a better health record and 5 years of age. That's not insignificant, but trust me when I say that the Dodgers will enjoy their Schmidt deal much more than Zito's team will, especially if it's the Rangers. All of the teams that end up losing out on the Zito sweepstakes should kick themselves for not pursuing Schmidt harder.
• Mike Piazza signed a 1-year, $8.5 million contract with the A's to be their DH and semi-backup catcher. Let's just go ahead and call this the Frank Thomas deal of 2007, because it sure looks that way. The A's will be using Piazza almost strictly as a DH, which will enhance his durability and get him in the lineup more often. And they somehow managed to nab him for just 1 year and an utterly reasonable $8.5 million. Piazza was supposed to be mulling another offer from the Rangers, and I have to wonder if they offered him two years. Maybe they should have, because Piazza is still an offensive presence. His 283/342/501 batting line last year was dampened by playing in Petco Park; he hit 332/372/564 on the road. The A's needed a jolt of offense and they got it. This deal also means that Barry Bonds won't be signing with Oakland, so it looks like it really is just the Giants or nothing.
• The Indians signed Joe Borowski to be their closer -- 1 year, $4.25 million was the final number. Borowski is one of those "proven closers" who actually isn't very good at all. The Indians seem to realize this given that low-ball contract, but the problem will be when they actually stick him out there in the 9th inning. Borowski did admittedly have a rebound year with Florida last year, notching a 3.75 ERA with a 33:64 BB:K ratio in 69.2 IP. But that was in Florida; now, he's going to have to pitch in the real major league. The good news is that the Indians are fully capable of shifting him out of the job and replacing him with a kid if (when) he tanks.
• The Giants signed catcher Bengie Molina for 3 years and $16 million. I often make fun of the Giants for their signing of tired, old players, but really -- it's not funny anymore. Molina was a free agent (obviously), and I wrote in his Toronto entry that he should be stamped "Don't Open After Age 30." Well, Molina will turn 33 next year, and is already the slowest player in baseball, even by a catcher's standards. And while he still hits relatively well (284/319/467 in '06), don't count on much durability. And with his "athleticism," his health should take a sharp turn for the worse in the years to come.
  Incidentally, Molina will be replacing Mike Matheny, the last old catcher the Giants signed to a 3-year deal. That was a dismal failure, too. ::Sigh::
• The Dodgers were busy today; they also nabbed Mike Lieberthal to be their backup catcher for 1 year and $1.25 mil. Lieberthal's days as a full-time starter were done, but he's a good fit to be a backup, especially for that money. He hits pretty well for a backup, and isn't a defensive loss either.
• Words is that the Twins are trying to talk starter Brad Radke out of retiring. I don't know how much stock to put in this rumor, especially since Radke pretty much shot his shoulder all to hell in the stretch run last year. He did this with the knowledge that he wouldn't be coming back in 2007. And after that, I'm surprised the Twins would really want him back for anything other than sentimental reasons.
• Reports are that the Red Sox & Daisuke Matsuzaka are still far apart in their negotiations, and the clock is ticking. The sticking point is that the Red Sox, having already committed $51.1 million in their posting fee, don't want to pay Matsuzaka full market price. Because if they do agree on a (justifiable) contract for, let's say, 5 years and $90 million, it will actually be 5 years and $141 million (about $28 mil./year) for Boston, because they have to factor in that posting fee. Matsuzaka's agent, Scott Boras, could give a shit about the posting fee; that money goes to the Seibu Lions, and Matsuzaka doesn't get a cent of it. His attitude is, "I don't care how much you paid for the rights to Matsuzaka. You're going to pay him full market price, or you won't get him at all." And Boras isn't the sort to bluff on something like that. He totally has the whip hand, too. Because if the Red Sox fail to sign Matsuzaka after all of this hoopla and he goes back to Japan, Theo Epstein & Co. will be roasted in the Boston press for missing out on a Cy Young-caliber pitcher. It's hard for me to imagine the Sox not signing Matsuzaka, if only because they've got so much invested in the process beyond their pitching staff.
  This process should be very informative for teams looking to sign Japanese players in the future.
• Whither Andy Pettitte? Pettitte decided today (after much hand wringing) that he will return to baseball in 2007, after threatening to retire after last season. The only real possibilities are the Yankees and Astros, with Pettitte reportedly favoring New York. Pettitte should probably come at a pretty reasonable price, making him a much better bet than Ted Lilly. And the Yankees and Astros are perfectly aware that wherever Pettitte goes, he's likely to bring along his old friend, Roger Clemens (remember him?), who is indeed a free agent. Clemens will likely do the same routine as last year, waiting to join the team in May and working a limited schedule. It was tremendously effective last year, and I've just resigned myself to the fact that Clemens could pitch until he's 90 and still win games. So the Clemens Factor will be the strong subplot of any Andy Pettitte discussions.
• Whither Richie Sexson? The Mariners are rumored to be shopping around their expensive first baseman, and the Yankees are rumored to be interested. New York needs a first baseman, and Sexson appears to be available. But this appears to be more rumor than substance. The Yanks really aren't looking to add any more big-money hitters, and while Sexson isn't that expensive, the Yankees are focused first and foremost on pitching. I have to take the opportunity to congratulate Brian Cashman and the Yankees for exercising a remarkable amount of restraint in recent years. For better or worse, the George Steinbrenner heyday is over, and the Yankees are no longer going to pursue free agents like a 5-year-old on a Toys R Us shopping spree.
• In my earlier report on the Mets-Royals trade, I apparently expressed too optimistic a view of Brian Bannister. My view was that Bannister had some potential to develop into a quality pitcher, but reports I've heard since then (from those wiser than I) say that he's a #4-5 starter at best. But even if it is a good trade for the Mets in terms of talent exchanged, they're still losing something they need (starting pitching) and getting something they don't so much need (relief pitching). But the ceiling on Burgos is high, and the Mets may be eyeing him as the eventual replacement for Billy Wagner as closer, either that or as a Zumaya-esque Setup-Superman.
• Medical reports from Boston are that Jon Lester, diagnosed with lymphoma a few months ago, appears to be cancer free. There's been nothing official, but I've heard that his MRI has come back clear, and his cancer appears to be in remission. This is fabulous news, no question, and best wishes as always to Lester and his family that he can stay cancer-free. For the Red Sox, it's good news, of course. There's also the added benefit that they don't have to rush Lester along in his recovery. The Sox will have 5 or 6 starting pitchers going into 2007 without considering Matsuzaka. So there's no hurry for Lester, who still has a ton of potential.

There will probably be more in the weeks to come, and I'll try to stay ahead of it. In general, I try to avoid reporting on rumors, unless they're particularly strong and reliable, or unless they just interest me in a humorous or bizarre way. Most observers have remarked that this edition of the Winter Meetings have been so silent that the most random rumor can become absolute fact in no time at all. When you've got a fleet of news people with no news to cover, this is what happens. So forgive me if I don't have all the hot n' juicy gossip. For every deal that happens, there are 10 or 15 that don't, and it would be tiresome to talk about them all.

I've also been quite remiss in recent weeks in not giving credit to the sources of all of my information. My primary source for baseball stats is still Baseball Reference.com, which is currently redesigning itself and adding more features to become even more fabulous -- if that's possible. Most of my minor league stats come from The Baseball Cube, which reports minor and major league stats that are quite useful to the statistically-inclined. Doing my reports on future stars would be impossible without a quick reference to the Cube. I also use the sortable stats available at Baseball Prospectus where I am, at long last, a subscriber. There you can get pretty much every sophisticated sabermetric stat, sortable for every season back to 1973. It's like a wet dream. (I will also periodically pull out Lee Sinins' computer program, the Sabermetric Encyclopedia. It's a bit superfluous given all the benefits of BR, but it is still useful).
Historically speaking, we'd all be at a loss without Retrosheet.org, which has box scores for every game going back more than 100 years, and play-by-play data for every game for the past 30+ years (they're constantly adding more games and completing more seasons). They're the ground-level, grass-roots organization that makes all of the game-level details available to all of us geeks who care. They also chart random bits of interest, such as every inside-the-park home run and every instance of the hidden ball trick and every time a team was penalized for batting out of turn.
Almost all of the commentary and analysis I get from Baseball Prospectus (BP, from now on), The Hardball Times, and espn.com. It would be impossible to list all of the valuable contributors from each site. But I try to check in on these as often as I can for my daily dose of insight. There are also a ton of blogs and secondary websites that offer news, criticism, and commentary. I listed only those that I visit regularly, so it's not an exhaustive list by any means.
For strict baseball news, I'm pretty much a devotee of espn.com. With invaluable insiders like Peter Gammons, Buster Olney, Jayson Stark and many others, you often know what happens before it happens there. They're also very good at getting things right, and at labelling rumor and speculation as such. MLB.com is also valuable for every press release and any sort of official information about award selections and news. Their sortable stats are probably the easiest to navigate if you're just looking for the basic baseball card stats such as AVG, HR, ERA etc.
And for baseball humor, there is nothing like The Brushback, which is an online source of humorous fake news for sports (much like The Onion). They've recently published a book of their collected columns and headlines, and it is freakin' hilarious. I couldn't begin to list all of the hilarious stories, but here's a small sampling of some of their fake news headlines:

Confused Manny Ramirez Thinks He's Being Traded to Disney World

Naive Scott Boras Thinks He's Not Going to Burn in Hell

Congress Drafts Bill To Punish Those Who Don't Cry During National Anthem

Recruit Scared Off By University's High Graduation Rate

$7 Milion Worth of Jewelry Stolen from NFL Player's Glove Compartment

Player Heckles Underachieving Fan

Only 3 Date Rapes at This Year's Maxim Party

Visiting Team Rattled by Repeated Playings of "We Will Rock You"

It would be more appropriate to credit each of these sources in every one of my entries, as they all provide the data and insight to make me sound much smarter than I am. There's a great deal of baseball wisdom available over the internet, and I can only hope that after taking so much of it, I can start giving back.

Looking Ahead: Boston Red Sox

• Ryan Howard won the NL MVP Award, and Justin Morneau took home the AL MVP Award. I'm too tired of arguing to discuss why they were such bad picks, so go listen to Keith Law and Rob Neyer discuss the same.

2006 W-L Record: 86-76
2006 pW-pL Record: 81-81
Runs Scored: 820 (6th in AL)
Runs Allowed: 825 (11th in AL)
Free Agents: Alex Cora, Keith Foulke, Alex Gonzalez, Jason Johnson, Gabe Kapler, Javy Lopez, Mark Loretta, Doug Mirabelli, Trot Nixon, Carlos Pena, David Riske

2007 Projected Lineup:
1B -- Kevin Youkilis
2B -- Dustin Pedroia
SS -- ???
3B -- Mike Lowell
LF -- Manny Ramirez
CF -- Coco Crisp
RF -- Wily Mo Pena
C -- Jason Varitek
DH -- David Ortiz

2007 Proj. Rotation:
Curt Schilling
Daisuke Matsuzaka?
Jonathan Papelbon
Josh Beckett
Tim Wakefield/Kyle Snyder/Matt Clement

2007 Proj. Closer: ???

Offense and Defense:
The Sox offense was disappointing in 2006. They went from consistently leading the league in most offensive categories to just barely above-average. The good news is that they were still getting production from the right side of the defensive spectrum; Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz were MVP candidates, Mike Lowell and Kevin Youkilis held down the infield corners both offensively and defensively, and Trot Nixon and Wily Mo Pena managed satisfactory numbers in right field.
The Sox' trouble in 2006 (as it will be in 2007) is getting production up the middle from the skilled defensive positions. At catcher, the Sox are stuck with Jason Varitek, who is on the downhill slide of his career. Varitek hit a mere 238/325/400 in 2006. Most of the Sox' downfall was blamed on the loss of team captain Varitek. That's just silly, as the pitching numbers above show. Varitek hit poorly and, at age 35, won't be getting much better next year.
In the middle infield, the Sox tried to get by with Mark Loretta and Alex Gonzalez. Gonzalez was a pretty big nothing (255/299/397), although his defense is either Gold Glove-quality or simply above-average, depending on which stats you favor. Second baseman Mark Loretta was more of a disappointment, as he showed no signs of his San Diego form with a 285/345/361 batting line. Both men will depart as free agents in 2007, leaving the Sox with holes to fill there.
But the biggest disappointment was probably center fielder Coco Crisp. Crisp struggled with injuries that sapped his offense (264/317/385 in 105 games), while former Red Sox Johnny Damon lit up New York with the Yankees. Crisp will likely improve in 2007, but it's still questionable whether the Sox would be better off cutting ties and getting an upgrade somewhere.
So the Sox are left with these holes to fill: Catcher, Center Field, Second Base, Shortstop. The Sox are stuck with Varitek at catcher for two more years, so there's nothing for them there. They also traded away competent backups Kelly Shoppach and Josh Bard, leaving them with nothing to replace the Cap'n when he went down with injuries. A good backup catcher would be a solid investment for '07, especially if they can hit.
At second base, the Sox will go with young Dustin Pedroia. Pedroia has hit well in the minors, showing a good batting eye, a strong batting average, and doubles power. It's questionable how much of his minor league stardom will translate to the maj0rs; predictions vary widely depending upon whom you ask. Regardless, Pedroia is what the Sox will have to go with, especially since they'll be dropping lots of money elsewhere.
Center field may take a more creative solution. Word is that the Sox are energetically pursuing J.D. Drew. I'm not sure how this would shake things out; they may shift Drew to center field and trade Crisp, or leave him in right field and trade Pena. Either way, Drew would be a good investment, especially for a team with few guarantees over the long term. The Sox have several young outfielders at Triple-A that could make a contribution in the big leagues, such as Brandon Moss, David Murphy, and Jacoby Ellsbury. But it's questionable whether they're good enough to be big-league regulars or just fourth outfielders.
Shortstop is also a big problem with no internal solution. The Sox are rumored to be pursuing Julio Lugo, but there are several teams in on him, since he's by far the best free agent shortstop. Without him, the Sox may do what they did last year and just settle on a punchless glove man for the role.

Pitching:
The Sox' starting pitching outlook is much brighter than it was last year. That ugly 11th-place finish in runs allowed showed a pitching staff devastated by injuries and lacking in the depth to compensate. But with the shift of Jonathan Papelbon to the rotation, and the presumed signing of Daisuke Matsuzaka, the Sox have already taken a big step forward to improve themselves in that regard.
(I must correct a statement I made earlier; if the Red Sox fail to sign Matsuzaka, their posting fee is refunded, and Matsuzaka is not eligible to sign with any other MLB team.)
Even so, very little is guaranteed, and there are considerable question about each pitcher in the rotation. If everything goes well, a starting rotation of Schilling/Papelbon/Matsuzaka/Beckett/Wakefield would be one of the best in the league. But that's assuming a lot. Schilling and Wakefield both turn 40 next year. Schilling is coming off a productive and healthy 2006, so that's a comfort, but he's still a power pitcher entering the danger zone of injuries and regressing performance. The same could be said of Wakefield. Wakefield missed a good deal of 2006 to injury, but other than that, he's usually been a durable source of quality innings, and a very valuable man to have in the #5 spot.
With Papelbon, the question isn't so much effectiveness as health. Papelbon was the most dominant relief pitcher in baseball last year until injuries prematurely ended his season. Will those injuries reoccur? How will Papelbon adjust to the shift back into the rotation? These are big questions that make it difficult to predict his future with any certainty.
Just as unpredictable is Daisuke Matsuzaka. This is assuming -- of course -- that the Red Sox can indeed sign him in the 23 days they have left to do so. Even if they do, there's always the question of how Matsuzaka's performance will translate across the pond. Clay Davenport's translation system has Matsuzaka ranking with the elite pitchers of our time; so it would seem that his dominance will translate well to the states. But he's a 26-year-old with a lot of innings pitched who's used to pitching on 5 days of rest (I believe). How will he adjust to the bigs? While all of that is legitimate concern, it still seems to me that Matsuzaka -- if he signs -- is the closest to a sure thing that the Sox pitching staff has.
There are even some concerns about Josh Beckett. Beckett was supposed to be the #2 co-anchor behind Curt Schilling, but his 2006 performance leaves him looking more like a #3 or #4. Beckett posted a 5.01 ERA and allowed a career-high 36 home runs. I doubt he'll continue pitching in the 5.00-ERA range, but his peripherals would indicate that he's not going to be as dominant as the Red Sox hoped. The pressure is on him in 2007 to prove that he can pitch in the AL.
The Sox bullpen is also in flux. Veterans include Julian Tavarez and Mike Timlin, neither of whom is particularly reliable for future prediction and both are only getting older. The Sox have no closer, wisely letting Keith Foulke walk, and will probably replace him either with a trade or with one of their young relief arms. The Sox have several young arms that could step in as closer, but there would likely be a steep learning curve, as none of them has been able to stick in the major leagues just yet. That learning curve is especially steep in Boston, where the fans aren't known for their patience with pitchers who blow saves.

Offseason Outlook:
The Sox should pursue safer, more reliable free agents such as Julio Lugo and J.D. Drew. Their offense has a sound base of production already, and it's just a matter of supplementing it with better offense and defense up the middle.
I also don't think that the team should trade Manny Ramirez. In this new world order of baseball salaries, Manny's $20 million annual salary is no longer considered to be that outlandish. It seems possible that the Red Sox could actually consummate a deal this time, but I don't really see how it would help the team. Manny still hits like an MVP with a startling consistency, and there's simply no way you could replace that contribution. If the Sox trade Manny they will likely be picking up part of his salary. This makes a potential deal even less attractive; the Sox will be paying $8-10 million a year just to get rid of Manny, with only $10-12 million to spend on an actual player. And as this offseason has shown us, a $12 million annual salary won't even get you the likes of Alfonso Soriano or Aramis Ramirez -- so there's no chance that you can acquire a player of Manny's stature.
The only real reason to trade Manny is if you can get some sort of embarassingly good offer in return, or if his attitude and performance simply becomes untenable. His performance is above reproach; Manny's prickly attitude and fussiness have never affected his offensive potency. And although it's easier said than done, the Sox would be better off just living with his headaches, especially since there are precious few scenarios whereby trading him would improve your ballclub.
On the pitching side of things, the Sox need to resist the urge to overspend (at least, apart from Matsuzaka). If they can sign the Japanese wunderkind, their pitching staff will be in as good a shape as they can manage it, playing with the hand they were dealt. It's going to be a challenge to keep up with the Yankees and Blue Jays when it comes to spending sprees, but you simply must resist it. Your team is still volatile and unpredictable, but it's the best you can do with what you've got to work with.

Trades, Postings, and Options

• The Yankees traded disgruntled outfielder Gary Sheffield to the Detroit Tigers yesterday for three minor league pitchers. Sheffield, who expressed a strong dislike for many MLB teams, will apprently find temporary happiness in Detroit, where he'll be reunited from the management team (Jim Leyland, Dave Dombrowski) of his Florida Marlin days. Sheffield says that he's happy with the deal, and he's not the kind to hide his true feelings.
  This is a fine deal for the Yankees, who are able to trade excess offense (and $13 million) for some much needed minor league pitching depth. Of the three prospects the Yankees received, Humberto Sanchez is the closest to the majors. Sanchez has very strong minor league numbers and could break into the Yankee rotation as soon as 2007, depending on what happens on the free agent market. He's no superstar, but he's a very valuable young player who gives the Yanks a BIG (and cheap) insurance policy in case Mussina, Johnson, Wright & Co. don't fare very well. The other two pitchers are in the low minors, but even that is a victory; the Yankees don't have too many promising arms anywhere in their system, and any deal that gives them more young options is a good deal.
  As for the Tigers, my feelings are mixed. The three prospects the Tigers lost aren't so much the problem; while Sanchez may turn into a valuable guy, the Tigers are blessed with redundancy in the starting pitching department, and were able to let these guys go. What they needed was offense -- especially a patient hitter with a big OBP. That's Gary Sheffield in a nutshell. Sheffield will give the Tigers a big boost in patience and even more power.
  The only question is how Sheffield will perform. If Sheffield has a big year with Detroit, then you could consider it to be a good deal even if Sanchez does develop well. But that's a big "if;" Sheff is coming off an injury-plagued season that saw his offensive numbers suffer and, at age 38, isn't likely to get much better. It's a big gamble for Detroit, and you have to admire their guts (and their honest evaluation of their problems), but we'll have to wait and pass judgment after we see how healthy (and productive) Sheffield still is.
• The Cardinals re-signed outfielder Jim Edmonds to a two-year contract extension. The club had an option on Edmonds for 2007 but decided to ink him to a new two-year contract. With no center fielder in the system ready to take his job, the Cards apparently decided to take a risk on Edmonds in return for a two-year guarantee of center field stability. The deal will pay him $19 million over the course of the next two seasons. The analysis here is pretty simple: Edmonds will be 37 next year. If he plays up to his reputation, or even slightly below (i.e. his 257/350/471 2006), he'll be worth the money. But if his health deteriorate and injuries start to sap away his skills, it will be a mistake. Knowing what we know now, it's hard to fault for the Cards for locking up Edmonds. But the Cards may be exacerbating their problems by committing more money to a risky, aging player.
• The most puzzling deal so far this offseason is a trade that sent San Diego 2B Josh Barfield to the Cleveland Indians, in return for 3B/OF Kevin Kouzmanoff and pitcher Andrew Brown. This is a total steal for the Indians, who didn't really have a position for Kouzmanoff and had a hole to fill at second base (mission accomplished).
  For the Padres, though, it's more problematic. I can't really pull out my trusty "bone-headed trade" label here, but it's close. The Padres did desperately need a third baseman, and Kouzmanoff fits the bill (offensively; defense may be a stretch). But it seems to me that they traded one problem for another. They filled their hole at third base and created a hole at second base. There's no one ready to step up and replace Barfield. In fact, you could easily argue that Barfield is the more valuable player; he's younger, plays a more valuable position, and already has a good year of major league service under his belt. Kouzmanoff has yet to spend a lot of time in the majors, so we can't get a consistent read on what his offensive capabilities are. He's shown a lot of promise, but it may be a lot to ask for him to play third base everyday.
  The most puzzling thing about all of this is that I didn't know Josh Barfield was on the trading block, nor do I know why he was on the trading block. I know that the Padres needed a third baseman, and yes, GMs already say that "no one is untradeable," but realistically speaking, Barfield is the sort of player you just don't trade, unless you're getting something overwhelmingly superior in return. Barfield is a good hitter at a key defensive position with the potential for improvement. He's still amazingly cheap, with only one year of major league service time. This means that he'll be making the minimum for two years yet and won't be eligible for free agency for another five seasons at least. He's not an MVP or anything, but this is usually the type of player you keep to build a team around. As I said, I could understand trading him for a big-time improvement (say, as part of a deal for A-Rod), but the fact that such a cheap, productive player was sent of for relatively little is puzzling. It's possible that the Padres know more about Kouzmanoff (and Barfield) than I do. It's also possible that Kevin Towers is smoking the same junk that made him trade for Vinny Castilla last year.
  This is what I mean when I say that a GM should "keep his ear to the ground" in regards to trades. A lot of times a previously unavailable player will become available, and it behooves a GM to be the first one to know this. It's also possible to talk another GM into making a player available through gentle persuasion. Kudos for Indians GM Mark Shapiro for apparently doing just that.
• Dodger outfielder J.D. Drew exercised an option that allowed him to opt out of his current contract and become a free agent. I didn't mention Drew's option in my previous blog entries for a simple reason: I didn't know about it. I had read a reference to the clause before, but for some reason, thought it was in a later year of the contract. It's puzzling as to why the Dodgers put this clause in there (just as it's puzzling as to why the Cubs did the same for Aramis Ramirez). But it enabled Drew to cash out and hit the free agent market when he felt he could get more money. And, as the only left-handed power hitter on the market, he should easily top his previous annual salary of $11 million. He's also a true right fielder with good defense; most of the other top hitters on the market are of marginal defensive value, stuck in the 1B/LF/DH role (Carlos Lee, Frank Thomas, Barry Bonds, Alfonso Soriano). Even though the Dodgers have a nice batch of young talent coming up, this puts a big damper on their 2007 plans.
• Met pitcher Tom Glavine declined his player option for 2007, and the Mets are planning to do the same. I can understand that Glavine would want to be a part of this big-money free agent market; but I'm not sure why the Mets would let him go. Because without Glavine, their 2007 #1 starter is John Maine. Even with Glavine, they had some spending to do to improve the starting rotation, and his departure won't help matters at all. Word is that Glavine will be heading back to Atlanta to finish his career (and likely record his 300th win) as a Brave. This warms the cockles of this Atlanta fan's heart.
• The bidding process has been completed for Japanese pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka. It will soon be revealed which team submitted the highest bid (the bids were sealed), and that team will get exclusive bargaining rights with Matsuzaka. If the team cannot agree on a contract with him, the bid money is refunded and Matsuzaka becomes (I'm pretty sure) a free agent. But I seriously doubt that will happen.
  Early speculation was that the Yankees would have the highest bid, but rumors now have the Red Sox in the lead. This is just hearsay, and we won't know for sure for a couple days now. Other teams (reportedly) bidding on Matsuzaka include the Rangers and Diamondbacks. Matsuzaka is easily the best pitcher available this off-season. He's 26 years old and has pitched like a Cy Young winner in Japan. Even if he's "only" an All-Star in the USA, he'll be great to have at such a young age.
• Two new managers have been hired since I last spoke. Ron Washington, former Oakland A's coach, was hired to manage the Texas Rangers. And Bud Black, former Angel pitching coach, was hired to manage the Padres. Both men have good reputations within the game, having been considered management material for a while now. I really have nothing else to say in comment, since neither man has managed in the big leagues. But everything I've heard is that they're nice people and should work out. But then, when's the last time you read a story about a new manager, and the reporter said, "Johnny Jones is considered to be a poor clubhouse presence and an indifferent leader. His skills on the field are marginal, and most people in the league make fun of him." Reporters in the off-season tend to ac-cen-tchu-ate the positive.
  "Sources" are also reporting that longtime coach Manny Acta will take over as Washington Nationals manager. This is not official, but will probably be announced next week.
• Espn.com is reporting that the Yankees have discussed a deal with the Orioles involving starting pitcher Jaret Wright. The deal would send Wright to Baltimore in exchange for prospects.
  I can understand why the Yankees would want to get rid of Wright; he's expensive and not very good. Granted, they don't have a lot of options to replace him, but if they can re-sign Mike Mussina (which sounds likely), they'll have a front three of Mussina-Wang-Randy Johnson to go with prospect Phillip Hughes and perhaps a free agent. It would be a good deal for the Yankees, even if they only got a few B prospects from Baltimore.
  I can't think of any reason why the Orioles would want Jaret Wright. It wouldn't be so bad if the Yankees pick up part of his salary, but even then, they're not getting a whole lot. The O's are already committed to Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera, Kris Benson, and Rodrigo Lopez for their 2007 rotation. Granted, that's about as scary as an episode of Mr. Rogers, but there's really no more room for marginal, expensive pitchers. And the Orioles aren't in any position to give away prospects, even mid-level ones.
• The Mets' new ballpark will not be called Shea Stadium. It will be called CitiField, after CitiBank. This shows the growing urge to sell naming rights to parks instead of simply dubbing them with the name of the owner/executive who built them. I think that "Turner Field" will be the last of its kind in this regard.
  And is there some unwritten rule that ballparks must be named after banks and telecommunications companies?
  Banking/Insurance/Financial Insitutions:
  Chase Field (Arizona)
  The Great American Ballpark (Cincinnati)
  Comerica Park (Detroit)
  Edison International Field (Los Angeles-A)
  CitiField* (New York - N)
  Citizen's Bank Park (Philadelphia)
  PNC Park (Pittsburgh)
  AT&T Park (San Francisco)
  Safeco Field (Seattle)
  Telecommunications Companies:
  U.S.. Cellular Field (Chicago-A)
  McAfee Coliseum (Oakland)
  Ameriquest Field (Texas)
  Rogers Centre (Toronto)
  This means that once the Mets' new stadium comes, 13 of 30 ballparks will have sold naming rights to companies in these industries. Does this make sense? Why not name a ballpark after a fast food chain? Or a pharmaceutical company (Welcome to GlaxoSmithKline Field)? It won't be long before the Durham Bulls become the Merril Lynch Bulls, or the Toledo Mudhens move into Jackson Aluminum Siding Park, or the Astros move into Enron Fie-- oops, too late.
  Let's just hope they have the decency to name the new Yankee Stadium "Yankee Stadium." I very much respect the fact that the new Busch Stadium is indeed Busch Stadium, at least for now. I was really pleased when they first opened the stadium in Texas called simply The Ballpark at Arlington. But that was too simple; it had to be Ameriquest Field.
  If you're going to go with those industries, at least pick a name that lends itself to the game. The Great American Ballpark is a fabulous name for a baseball park. Even Safeco Field isn't too bad; take off that "co" and you've got "safe," which is a generally positive word. Although it does sound a bit too much like "Safeway," and we'd rather not think of buying groceries while we're at the park.
  And try to pick a company that's not about to merge or get bought out. I think we're all tired of following the Giants from Candlestick Park to 3Com Park to the new Pacific Bell Park to SBC Park and now to AT&T Park. Even though it's a completely different stadium, I'd probably still call it "Candlestick," if only because that name actually registers something in the long-term memory.
  And let's all thank heaven that Wrigley Field, Fenway Park, and Dodger Stadium have remained intact for so long. The name of Busch Stadium survived the move into a new park; the name of Shea Stadium will not. Let's hope that the name of Yankee Stadium will (and I just can't imagine that it won't).

The hot stove season is heating up. I'll continue on with my look forward at American League clubs, and I'll stop by with occasional free agent updates as well.