NL East Preview

The baseball season beckons, and as spring training continues and the World Baseball Classic creeps ever on, unbeknownst to most of the US (and Japan, judging by the empty seats on TV), we can now get a clearer picture of what the coming season holds. And so I will embark on my preseason analysis of each baseball division. The analysis I'm doing is in concert with the Win Shares analysis I did before, but that doesn't mean that I'll reach the same conclusions. What follows is a general overview to get a sense of what the 2006 season has in store for us. (Batting lines are rendered thus: AVG/OBP/SLG)

New York Mets
Starting Pitching
The Mets' hopes for 2006 depend upon their starting rotation, which looks right now like a shambles. Pedro Martinez is still a fine pitcher, but is (not surprisingly) having health issues which may limit his durability and quality in 2006. Behind Pedro is a pretty lean rotation. Tom Glavine did a capable job in 2005 (3.53 ERA), but the clock is ticking on him, especially after he turns 40 in a few weeks. Steve Trachsel might have some good pitching left in his tank, but he's 35 and is coming off injury troubles that limited him to 37 IP in 2005. Victor Zambrano is probably the #4 starter, which is troubling, since you'd figure the Mets would have at least 4 pitchers to throw out there. The #5 spot could go to Aaron Heilman, who's struggled in the rotation in the past, but had a strong 2005 out of the 'pen, or it could go to free agent Jose Lima, the AL's worst pitcher in 2005. There aren't a lot of pitchers ready to help from the farm system, and GM Omar Minaya blew his free agent wad on closer Billy Wagner. He also decided to trade Kris Benson, a solid if unspectacular starting pitcher, to the Orioles for washed-up closer Jorge Julio, easily Minaya's dumbest offseason move.
As the rotation goes, so go the Mets. Don't rule out a trade for an impact starter, possibly coming very soon if the Mets start out the season poorly.
Bullpen
The Mets have some capable workers in the bullpen, but nothing to strongly support an already weak starting staff. Free agent Billy Wagner was the best NL closer in '05 (with Philadelphia), but Wagner turns 35 in July and has had his share of injury troubles. And a 35-year-old closer with a history of injuries isn't a very safe bet, to say the least.
Corners
The Mets have Carlos Delgado at first, who will bring a well-needed potency to the lineup. Third baseman David Wright is the best young third baseman in the league, and could soon be the best, period.
Middle Infield
Here's where the lineup is in trouble. Shortstop Jose Reyes has been proclaimed as a great baseball player from the mountaintops, so far be it from me to point out his enormous shortcomings (poor hitting and fielding; all he did was come to bat 696 times). He is just a 22-year-old kid with time to improve, but Queens isn't the place for a highly-touted rookie to crash, burn, and then resurrect himself. Players rarely get past the "burn" phase in New York.
Second base is an open issue, even now. Japanese import Kaz Matsui has been a dud for two seasons now (265/320/380 overall), so the Mets are willing to give the starting job to anyone good enough. That could be free agent Jose Valentin, although he's not the player he once was.
Outfield
Carlos Beltran had a tough year in New York, but it's unfair to place the blame on him. No one realized that 2004 (267/367/548) was a career year for him. 2005 with the Mets (266/330/414) was a letdown, yes, but it was more in line with his career numbers (282/350/479), especially considering his move to a National League pitcher's park from hitter-friendly Kansas City.
Cliff Floyd still resides in left field, but the Mets should be careful before they count on him to be as healthy and productive as he was last year (273/358/505 in 150 G). Right field is open, but the Mets have several possibilities, namely Victor Diaz and Xavier Nady.
Catching
The Mets got Paul Lo Duca in a trade with the Marlins. Lo Duca is a good hitter for a catcher (285/339/417 lifetime), but in recent years his defense hasn't been enough to make him a really worthwhile investment. He's not a bad idea at all, but he's not the best, and New York fans might resent him for being less than that after saying goodbye to Mike Piazza.
Bench
The Mets will have to improvise a potent bench, with several players still in contention for the starting lineup. The only significant addition to the bench this offseason was first baseman Julio Franco, signed two a two-year deal. Franco is still a good hitter, but he has to stop hitting sometime, and the Mets would have been better off upgrading in the middle infield or getting a better backup catcher.
Management
Omar Minaya is certainly trying to win, although he might have gotten caught up in his extravagance and committed a lot of money to get players easily replaceable with cheaper options. If the Mets don't win, it will be Minaya's ass in a sling, along with manager Willie Randolph.
Projected Finish: 1st place

Atlanta Braves
Starting Pitching
The Braves' starters are a strong, if unpredictable lot. The rotation is anchored by Tim Hudson and John Smoltz. Hudson is coming off an injury-plagued 2005 that saw him pitch less effectively (3.52 ERA), but still well. Smoltz is returning from a strong 2005 (3.06 ERA, 169 K in 229.2 IP), but is starting to slow down, understandable considering he turns 39 in May. And there's very little to support this unpredictable pair; Mike Hampton's injury concerns leave him questionable for any sort of use in 2006, so this means that the rotation will be rounded out by John Thomson, Horacio Ramirez, and Jorge Sosa. The Braves have promising young arms (such as Kyle Davies) who could shore up the back end of the rotation, but they can't be relied upon to any great degree. And the departure of Leo Mazzone adds another question mark to this troubled bunch of 5.
Bullpen
It looks like the Braves will be improvising a great deal of their bullpen. The aforementioned young arms, many of whom saw action in 2005, will provide a good deal of help. But the closer's role and setup roles aren't filled at this time. The Braves will likely just see what shakes out, as they did last year, but while this is a cheap solution, it is also a risky one, especially when there are no obvious candidates to step forward into these roles.
Corners
Adam LaRoche still mans first base, but the Braves have to wonder if this 26-year-old is ever going to start hitting (disappointing 259/320/455 batting line in 2005). Chipper Jones will stay at third, although with his poor defense and injury problems, it seems like just a matter of time before the Braves shift him to first and look for something else at the hot corner. Injured or not, though, Chipper can still hit (296/412/556 in '05).
Middle Infield
The departure of Rafael Furcal leaves the Braves hurting in the short-term. They're replacing him with Edgar Renteria. Everyone in baseball seems to think that Renteria is an elite shortstop, but I tell you he is not. He had a bad 2005 in Boston (276/335/385), although he should rebound somewhat this year. The Braves would have been much better off getting the cheaper (and better) Julio Lugo from Tampa Bay.
But the Braves do still have Marcus Giles at second. Giles is not only a capable defender, but is also one of the best-hitting second baseman in baseball (292/366/465 career).
Outfield
The Braves have an embarassment of riches in the outfield. Andruw Jones will return in center field. Jones' career year in 2005 (263/347/575) is behind him now, so expect a return to his career numbers (267/342/503). Rookie phenom Jeff Francouer returns to play right field, but there's simply no way this talented youngster will be as good (or lucky) as he was when he first arrived in the majors. Left field will likely be manned by Ryan Langerhans, Kelly Johnson, or one of the other solid young outfielders the Braves have at their disposal. The outfield is not a problem for Atlanta.
Catching
The Braves traded incumbent catcher Johnny Estrada to Arizona for some relief help. This wasn't such a bad idea, since Estrada was never again going to hit like he did in 2003, and the Braves have a capable replacement in Brian McCann, who debuted in 2005 (278/345/400). The Braves also have at their disposal one of the top catching prospects in the game in Jarrod Saltalamacchia (314/394/519 in 2005 A-ball). No problems here.
Bench
The Braves have a number of young players (most of whom debuted last year) on the bench, especially in the outfield. The infield is a bit barer, with the loss of Furcal and prospect Andy Marte hurting. The Braves do have Wilson Betemit as a quality backup who will likely see a good deal of work in the injury-prone and slightly quality-stricken infield.
Management
Bobby Cox and John Schuerholz are back, but Leo Mazzone is not. Everyone always wondered how much of Atlanta's success was due to Mazzone. We'll find out a lot about that this year, as Mazzone "rocks" out the Baltimore bench.
Impact Players
Chipper Jones, Tim Hudson, Chris Reitsma
Projected Finish: 2nd place

Philadelphia Phillies
Starting Pitching
The Phillies' pitching staff is basically non-existent. It's the only thing really hampering this otherwise-potent team. Brett Myers anchors the staff, and while he had an excellent 2005 (3.72 ERA, 208 K in 215.1 IP), there's some question whether this 25-year-old can repeat it, since he's never been nearly that good before in his career. Jon Lieber provides adequate support behind Myers, but that's about it. Randy Wolf is an injury waiting to happen, Cory Lidle is an innings-eater of the lowest vintage, and after that it gets really hairy. The Phils have some young arms that they can plug into the rotation, but a lot is still riding on Myers repeating his ace performance from 2005.
Bullpen
The Phillies signed Tom Gordon to serve as their closer. Gordon hasn't been a full-time closer since 2001 with the Cubs, but since then he's become the game's premier setup man. The Phillies are hoping this 38-year-old can shoulder the burden of a return to closing without losing the quality he's displayed in recent years.
Corners
Ryan Howard takes over full-time at 1B in Philly, which is good news for them. The 2005 NL Rookie of the Year hit 288/356/567 in 2005 at the age of 25, so he's only going to get better. The same can't be said for 3B David Bell, a capable defender who's a zero at the plate (248/310/361 in '05).
Middle Infield
The biggest star in the Philly infield is shortstop Jimmy Rollins, who returns this season with a 36-game hitting streak still alive. But while Rollins is a decent hitter for a shortstop (273/328/414 career), his defense and other contributions have been very overrated. The real budding star here is second baseman Chase Utley, whose first full season in 2005 was a rousing success (291/376/540).
Outfield
Trade rumors swirled around right fielder Bobby Abreu this offseason, but it looks like he'll be staying in Philly. Abreu is one of the premier players in the league, a career 303/411/512 hitter who steals 30 bases a year. Pat Burrell returns in left field. He'll never be as good as he was in 2001 (when the Phillies signed him to a sweetheart deal), but the Phils should be satisfied if he's just as good as he was last year (281/389/504).
Aaron Rowand, obtained from the White Sox in the Jim Thome trade, mans center field. Rowand is a fine defender who can steal a few bases, but he's not quite as good a hitter as his reputation. He had a career year in 2004 with Chicago, but is probably about as good as his career numbers (283/337/451). Regardless, he's a good guy to have in center, especially with the defense-challenged Abreu in right.
Catching
Catcher Mike Lieberthal has been with the team for quite a while, but it looks like he's reaching the age where he can no longer contribute positively to the team either offensively or defensively.
Bench
The Phillies have signed some infield help, but could use a strong bat in the 4th outfielder slot.
Management
New GM Pat Gillick was unable to significantly improve the pitching, apart from the signing of closer Gordon. With the Mets making noise in the free agent market and the Braves producing their own future stars, it looks like the Phillies will once again be also-rans.
Impact Players
Brett Myers, Tom Gordon, Aaron Rowand
Projected Finish: 3rd place

Washington Nationals
Starting Pitching
The Nats don't have a lot of depth in their starting rotation, a problem that becomes much bigger if ace Livan Hernandez pitches like he did last year (3.98 ERA in a pitcher's park). Hernandez is still as durable as ever, but he needs to be as rock-solid as he was in 2003 and 2004 if the Nats want to contend in the East. #2 man John Patterson was brilliant in 2005 (3.13 ERA, 185 K in 198.1 IP), but is it possible that this 28-year-old can repeat what looks like a career year? The Nats have nothing after these two, with Brian Lawrence injured and the rest of the rotation filled out with scraps like Ramon Ortiz and Tony Armas.
Bullpen
The good news is that the Nats are returning a very capable bullpen that served them well in 2005. It's anchored by closer Chad Cordero (1.82 ERA, 47/54 in saves), Gary Majewski (2.93 ERA), and Bobby Ayala (2.66 ERA).
Corners
The Nats return OBP-machine Nick Johnson to first base. Johnson is one of the stronger and more underrated first baseman in the game, partly because of the nature of his offense (289/408/479 in '05), but also because he's continually plagued with injuries (just 453 ABs last year). After trading Vinny Castilla, the Nats will put top prospect Ryan Zimmerman at third and hope for the best.
Middle Infield
Here's where the team has a big, gigantic mess thanks to Jim Bowden. Part 1 of the mess is simple: incumbent shortstop Cristian Guzman, who was the worst everyday player in baseball last year (219/260/314). The Nats signed Royce Clayton as a backup, but it's not like he's any better. The good news is that Guzman can only be better this year; the bad news is that Mr. Genius Bowden is still on the hook for his long-term contract.
The really complicated mess is at second base. The Nats already have a good second baseman in Jose Vidro. Vidro has seen injuries eat into his productivity, but this 302/364/467 career hitter is one of the best second baseman in the league when healthy.
Then Bowden happened. The GM traded for Rangers 2B Alfonso Soriano. Bowden expected Soriano, a slugger with awful defensive skills, to move to left field. But Soriano has refused to move. Period. So Bowden is in a bind. He got taken for a ride by the Rangers (who got a better and cheaper player in Brad Wilkerson), and he can't trade Soriano, because no one wants a selfish attitude problem who will only play a position he absolutely stinks at playing. Unless he can convince Soriano to shift (which looks unlikely), he'll either have to put him in left field against his will (which will be disastrous, if morbidly funny), or he can do something with Vidro. But moving Vidro would set a bad precedent, essentially rewarding Soriano's tantrums. We'll have to wait and see what happens, but boy did Bowden make himself a mess this time.
Outfield
RF Jose Guillen is dealing with a wrist injury, and it's unclear how much this will limit his playing time or effectiveness. The Nats can't afford to lose Guillen, one of their top hitters and the only good outfielder they have. Assuming Soriano is in left, that leaves Ryan Church in center field, which is a compromise in quality.
Catching
The Nats are lucky in that they found catcher Brian Schneider. Schneider might be the best defensive catcher in baseball, and hits decently enough (256/323/402 career) to make him a great value.
Bench
The Nats have an odd assortment on the bench, but should be able to get positive support from the likes of Robert Fick, Damian Jackson, Matt LeCroy, and Michael Tucker.
Management
You can probably guess from my tone how I feel about GM Jim Bowden. But to be fair, he still has to deal with MLB ownership. The Nats still don't have an owner, a fact that should embarass Bud Selig to no end. And until they get one, they will continue in the same holding pattern they are presently caught in.
Impact Players:
John Patterson, Livan Hernandez, Jose Vidro
Projected Finish: 4th place

Florida Marlins
Starting Pitching
After Dontrelle Willis, it's anybody's guess. The Marlins stockpiled a lot of good arms in the trades they made to sell off their team, but few if any of them will be able to contribute at the major league level in 2006. Other than Willis, the Fish have last year's surprise Brian Moehler, due for a nosedive back into mediocrity. The rest of the rotation could be anybody, but will most likely be (according to what I've seen) Jason Vargas, Sergio Mitre, and Scott Olsen.
Bullpen
The same thing I said about the rotation applies here, except there's not even one reliable guy around. Joe Borowski is tentatively slotted as the closer, which is truly scary; when the Devil Rays give up on you, you're usually finished.
Corners
The Marlins have Mike Jacobs at first (310/375/710 in 30 G in 2005), which isn't too much of a step down from Carlos Delgado, assuming Jacobs continues blossoming. MVP candidate Miguel Cabrera will likely move back to his natural defensive position at third base, making room for the Marlins' outfield prospects. Cabrera is indeed one of the league's best players (323/385/561 in '05), with nothing but a rumored attitude problem preventing him from superstardom.
Middle Infield
It looks like the Fish will go with former Boston prospect Hanley Ramirez as their starting shortstop. The Marlins did have Pokey Reese as their tentative second baseman, but they released him today after he left camp without permission. So I don't know what will happen there.
Outfield
First come, first serve. The only exception is right field, where uber-prospect Jeremy Hermida is basically guaranteed a spot. All that I've heard suggests that Hermida has the makings of a superstar.
Catching
My best guess here is Miguel Olivo, or some other replacement-level player.
Bench
The guys that don't make the starting lineup. The exception would be Lenny Harris, who gets a roster spot as a coach, more or less, because his value as a pinch hitter is grossly overestimated.
Management
Manager Joe Girardi has his work cut out for him. This year's team has a lot of future stars, but nothing to make you think they'll win more than 60 games. Upper management and ownership are looking more and more like the Enron of baseball.
Impact Players
The bat boy?
Projected Finish: 5th place