NL Central Preview

St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals aren't a 100-win team anymore; but they're still better than anyone else in the division.
Starting Pitching
The Cardinals had strong starting pitching last season, with an ace in Chris Carpenter and four above-average guys behind him. The question is mainly how reliable these guys are to repeat last year's performance.
Chris Carpenter won the NL Cy Young last year. Now I don't think he deserved it, but he still had an excellent season. But Carpenter was 30 years old last year. Is there any reason to believe that he suddenly became dominant at the age of 30?
Yes and no. Yes in that Carpenter's career statistics imply that he is a good pitcher. No in that he's never been even remotely as good as he was in 2005. Before 2005, Carpenter's best ERA was in 2001 with Toronto, where he posted an ERA+ of 116 (meaning he was 16% above average, taking into account park effects). In his best years, he's been from 15-20% above average, which is quite good; not amazing, but very solid. Then in 2005, his ERA+ was 151. He was 51% above the league average. His destroyed his old career high in strikeouts (157) by notching 213 of them (although he did admittedly pitch a career-high 241.2 IP.
So what can we conclude? Carpenter is reliably an above-average with a chance to be very good. And while it's possible that he's suddenly found a new dominance, it is highly unlikely at his age. His ERA improvement could more readily be explained by pitching in front of a fine St. Louis defense in a career year.
The rest of the rotation is a solid if unspectacular group. #2 man Mark Mulder was supposed to be the ace, but has struggled since mid-2004 to regain his early-career brilliance. Mulder was still a quality pitcher last year (3.64 ERA), although his low strikeout rate was very troubling (111 in 205 IP). It was his lowest K total since his rookie year, when he only pitched 154 innings. The trade that brought Mulder to St. Louis from Oakland is looking pretty bad, since the pitcher the Cards traded away (Dan Haren) was better than Mulder last year, is much younger, and has a much brighter future. The rest of the bunch (Suppan, Marquis, rookie Anthony Reyes) are durably average.
Bullpen
The Cards relied on a strong bullpen for their run of success in 2004 and 2005, but things have thinned out this season. Closer Jason Isringhausen still compiles a lot of saves (39 in 2005) with a good ERA (2.14), but his peripherals aren't the strongest (27:51 BB:K ratio), and he's 33 years old. The Cards signed Braden Looper and Ricardo Rincon to set him up. Looper is unreliable, although he has pitched well in the past. Rincon should be a solid lefty setup man, but this group will miss King, Eldred, and Tavarez.
Corners
First baseman Albert Pujols is not only the greatest player in baseball, he's amazingly consistent. After a career year in 2003 (359/439/667), Albert dropped off in 2004 (331/415/657) before coming back in 2005 to win the MVP (330/430/609). When you're still among the 3 best players in the game in an off-year, you're something special. Albert is already on the short list of the greatest Cardinals of all time, along with Rogers Hornsby and Stan Musial.
Scott Rolen returns at third base. Rolen was severely hampered by injuries in 2005 (235/323/383 in 56 games), so the Cardinals can count on a boost in production from him this season, if he's healthy.
Middle Infield
The Cards have been forced to employ some stopgaps here. Shortstop David Eckstein did pretty damn well for a stopgap last year (294/363/395), although it's doubtful he'll be able to repeat that. The Cards made a bargain-bin purchase in Junior Spivey at second base. Spivey's a fine hitter when healthy (270/354/436 career), but that's been a big "if" in recent years (59 games in 2004, 77 games in 2005).
Outfield
This is where the Cards will see a significant drop in production. Jim Edmonds returns in center. Edmonds is still an elite center fielder on offense and defense, but health issues are an issue for the 35-year-old, who has topped 500 ABs in just one of his six seasons in St. Louis.
The corners are a hole. Reggie Sanders and Larry Walker were injured last year, but they both produced well above replacement level. Larry Bigbie, their new left fielder, is barely over the replacement level, although he's done some good things in the past. Right fielder Juan Encarnacion is a terribly overrated player whose speed and power are more than overmatched by his middling defense and lack of plate discipline (.316 career OBP).
Catching
Young Yadier Molina is fast becoming one of the best defensive catchers in the league. The Cardinals just hope his bat will catch up (252/295/358 in '05).
Bench
The Cards have an adequate bench, as any Tony LaRussa club must. So Taguchi again mans the outfield, along with young John Rodriguez. Backup catcher Gary Bennett can't hit, but he's strong defensively.
Management
GM Walt Jocketty continues to build strong clubs on a relatively slim budget as one of the least-appreciated GMs in baseball. But as his club grows older, Jocketty is forced into more corners than his small budget can buy him out of, forcing him to settle for the likes of Larry Bigbie. How the Cards handle the transition as their 100-win clubs get old will help determine Jocketty's place in Cardinal lore. Manager Tony LaRussa has punched his Hall-of-Fame ticket.
Projected Finish: 1st place

Milwaukee Brewers
After the Cardinals, the NL Central is full of 80-win teams. But this year, one or two of them will become 90-game winners. The Brewers are by far the most likely to do so.
Starting Pitching
This hinges almost entirely on the health of ace Ben Sheets. When Sheets is healthy, he's an easy Cy Young contender (as we saw in 2004). But he suffered an odd assortment of injuries in 2005, and there's some question as to how much he'll be able to deliver in 2005. Behind him are Chris Capuano and Doug Davis, who surprised everyone (especially me) with their strong, durable performances in 2005. It's questionable whether they will be able to be able to repeat themselves. Their strong strikeout rates are encouraging, but less so is their high walk rate and their unimpressive track record.
Bullpen
Closer Derrick Turnbow (1.74 ERA, 39 saves, 64 K in 67.1 IP) was one of the NL's biggest surprises in 2005. It's hard to believe he'll be able to do it again, but there's nothing other than his youth to suggest otherwise. The Brewers have an uneven group behind Turnbow, although there's plenty of hope resting on guys like Jose Capellan and Jorge de la Rosa.
Corners
The Brewers traded away underrated 1B Lyle Overbay because they knew prospect Prince Fielder was ready. The Brewers believe that Fielder will be a huge offensive presence eventually; perhaps even moreso than his father. GM Doug Melvin stole 3B Corey Koskie from the Blue Jays, who nearly made the Brewers the sole beneficiaries of their off-season retooling. Koskie had injury troubles in 2005, but he's a capable defender and a well above-average hitter when healthy. Super-utility man Bill Hall waits if Koskie goes down with an injury.
Middle Infield
This is the young corps of the team, with shortstop J.J. Hardy and second baseman Rickie Weeks taking their place in the starting lineup last year. Hardy got off to a woeful start, but seemed to turn things around toward the end of the season. Weeks had a good first year, although questions about his defense are troubling. The Brewers are confident that both will be solid parts of the lineup for years to come.
Outfield
The Brewers have a solid bunch in the outfield, although it's not certain how well they'll reproduce last year's numbers. Left fielder Carlos Lee is the most reliable; his 265/324/487 performance was right in line with his career numbers. Right fielder Geoff Jenkins is highly inconsistent; he's as durable as they come, but you never know which side of the league average he'll end up on. And although center fielder Brady Clark is a fine defender and an underrated hitter, 2005 (306/372/426) was likely a career year for the soon-to-be-34-year-old.
Catching
One of GM Melvin's poorer moves was the signing of catcher Damian Miller to a long-term contract. His vaunted pitcher-handling skills haven't looked as good in Milwaukee, although he has hit well for the position (273/340/413).
Bench
Long-time Brewer Jeff Cirillo returns as a pinch-hitting option and potential infield replacement. Good hitter Bill Hall does the same. 3/4 of the Brewer infield is younger than 24, and the "veteran" Koskie is an injury risk. Manager Ned Yost should have some options if one of them fails to produce.
Management
As the Brewers finally return to respectability, the management team has received its long-due acclaim. GM Melvin has slipped under the radar to make more good deals over the past 3 years than most other GMs combined. Manager Yost has gotten good reviews for his handling of a very young, untested team, and pitching coach Mike Maddux continues to get his rogue's gallery to overachieve each year. There's nowhere to go but up for this franchise, pitching permitting.
Projected Finish: 2nd place

Houston Astros
The Astros have a terrible offense, with most of the important producers on the wrong side of 30. Their pitching staff lost its most valuable part in Roger Clemens , and it's looking less likely that he'll return on May 1. There's only so much Oswalt, Pettite, Lidge, and Berkman can do.
Starting Pitching
A great deal hinges on the return of Roger Clemens. But even if Clemens does sign with the team on May 1, he won't make his first major league start for a few weeks, and even then he won't be as good as he was last year.
Without Clemens, the ace is Roy Oswalt. Oswalt is a dominant pitcher and should be a Cy Young candidate. Andy Pettitte had a great 2005, but should regress a bit back to his career form. After them, the cupboard is bare. #3 starter Brandon Backe has a great reputation for pitching well in the postseason, and it would be great if he could do the same in, you know, the other 162 games (4.86 career ERA). And the group behind him is just plain ugly.
Bullpen
The Astros are returning most of the very strong 2005 bullpen intact. Closer Brad Lidge should continue to dominate, with his 2005 numbers likely more indicative of his true level of talent than his breakout 2004.
Corners
The return of Jeff Bagwell fouls up Houston's plans. There's really no chance he'll be able to hit like a first baseman should, which is a shame since he's getting paid $20 million. As for those who think Bagwell should retire to save the team the money, I disagree strongly. Bagwell's earned the right to decide for himself when to quit; he structured his contract this way so as to give the team more money to spend in the early years to form a contender. And the Astros knew exactly what they were doing when they signed a contract that would pay a 37-year-old $20 million. They took the stupid risk and are paying the stupid price.
In Bagwell's place will likely be Lance Berkman. Berkman recently turned 30, so we've probably seen the best he has, but then what we've seen has been pretty damn good (302/416/557 career).
At third base will be Morgan Ensberg. We saw what Ensberg had to offer in 2005 (283/388/557), and we can expect something nearly as good this year.
Middle Infield
2B Craig Biggio is getting older, yes, but still isn't too bad a hitter for his position (264/325/468). It would be better if the Astros were getting the offense somewhere else in the lineup, but they sure aren't. Especially not form SS Adam Everett, who's a defensive gem but an offensive bust (248/290/364).
Outfield
It's crowded out here, especially if Jeff Bagwell pushes Lance Berkman into left field. Assuming Berkman's at first, the outfield will be Preston Wilson in left, Willy Taveras in center, and Jason Lane in right. Wilson is still a good hitter, but his injury history is troubling (look for Chris Burke to see some time here). Taveras hits for a decent average, steals bases, and has great defense, but he sure uses up a lot of outs in the process (291/325/341). Lane is the opposite; he's all power with little else to offer (267/316/499).
Catching
Brad Ausmus is increasingly a liability in this Houston lineup, but he'll have a job here until he retires because of his reputation.
Bench
Chris Burke sits on the bench as the fourth outfielder. Mike Lamb will be the 1B/3B man, although he sure didn't hit like it last year (236/284/419). Eric Bruntlett will handle middle infield duties, most likely.
Management
GM Tim Purpura won a pennant his first year on the job. Considering all that he lost and what little he gained this off-season, it will be very tough to repeat that performance. Manager Phil Garner has, in my opinion, gotten a lot of undeserved credit for what his players have accomplished.
Projected Finish: 3rd place

Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are hoping that their off-season moves will help them contend; but I see a 79-win team that barely improved, if at all.
Starting Pitching
If, if, if. If Prior and Wood make 50 starts between them, the Cubs could contend. But I think we all know about how likely that is. And although Carlos Zambrano is one of the league's best pitchers, I think his high level of abuse will land him on the DL sooner rather than later. The back of the rotation offers no saviors; Greg Maddux is now just barely above-average.
Bullpen
The Cubs re-signed Ryan Dempster as their closer. He did well in the role in 2005, but he's been a risky investment all his career. Bobby Howry and Scott Eyre are good middle relievers, but the Cubs overpaid them by an obscene amount.
Corners
Last year, Derrek Lee hit 335/418/662. For his career, Lee is a 276/363/501 hitter. Lee is 30 years old. The odds that a 30-year-old baseball player went from All-Star to uber-MVP in one year are practically nil. Everyone will be waiting for Lee to hit at least close to his 2005 level, and they will (I am 99% certain) be disappointed. It's not Lee's fault; everybody has a career year, a year where they play above (and in some cases dramatically above) their established level of ability, due mainly to luck. And the older a player gets, the less likely it is that they've reached "another level." 30 is far above the normal age of maturation. Lee will hit much closer to his career numbers in 2006, and that alone will subtract a ton offense from the lineup.
Aramis Ramirez mans third. His defense could generously be called "middling," but he hits quite well and will be a major part of the lineup.
Middle Infield
This is the ugly part. Neifi Perez is tentatively slated to be the starting shortstop; Neifi's a fine defender, nearly making up for his dreadful hitting (this was another mind-boggling contract given to Perez). He will likely just keep the spot warm until prospect Ronny Cedeno is ready. Todd Walker is currently pencilled in as the second baseman, but it's become clear that the Cubs don't intend to go far with him. Walker's a fine hitter for the position, but is getting older and more fragile. He's also a poor defender, and Dusty Baker likes good defense on the field, no matter how much the lineup suffers. They may trade Walker and shift Perez or Cedeno to second.
Outfield
The Cubs looked to upgrade what was a pretty poor outfield in 2005. They've succeeded, but only modestly. Last year saw a rogue's gallery of Corey Patterson, Jerry Hairston, Todd Hollandsworth, and Jose Macias stinking up the outfield, with right fielder Jeromy Burnitz the only stable player. This year, the Cubs have a tentative outfield of LF Matt Murton, CF Juan Pierre, and RF Jacque Jones. It's an improvement, but not much of one, considering what they gave up in the Pierre trade and what they're paying Jones. Murton is a promising prospect in left. Pierre is overrated, but still quite valuable as a leadoff hitter when he keeps his average up (which he didn't in 2005: 276/326/354). The Cubs would be thrilled if he reproduced his career 305/355/375 line and stole some bases.
Jones is expected to be a power presence in right field, and he probably will. But that's about all. Jones is a 279/327/455 career hitter, and that's in an AL hitter's park. It's right around the average. So while average if better than what they had last year, the Cubs overpaid him, based on his inflated reputation. More troubling is the fact that Jones, who turns 31 in April, has suffered in recent years. After back-to-back years with a batting average of at least .300, Jones' AVG nosedived to .254 in 2004 and then .249 last year. Without his average, Jones is just a guy with some homers (22 per 162 games), and the Cubs already have those guys. The moral here is that GM Jim Hendry improved his outfield, yes, but he did so inefficiently; by acquiring the wrong players and giving up far too much in exchange.
Catching
Michael Barrett isn't much on defense, but he's one of the better-hitting catchers in the league (276/345/479 last year). Defensive specialist Henry Blanco is a great backup catcher, provided he comes to bat as little as possible.
Bench
Dusty Baker seems taken with some of his bench players, for reasons that sometimes escape me. The Cubs have stability issues, especially in the infield, and the likes of Jose Macias and Jerry Hairston, Jr. aren't really the solution.
Management
Dusty Baker generates divided opinion; many support the tactician that saw so much success in San Francisco; others are vehemently opposed to the guy who hurts the Cubs as much as he helps them. GM Jim Hendry isn't exactly sitting pretty either; the Cubs have money and some decent prospects, and Hendry hasn't achieved much in the way of results. That doesn't seem likely to change in 2006.
Projected Finish: 4th place
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds have no pitching. That's really about all you need to know.
Starting Pitching
The Reds' ace is Aaron Harang, who has pitched fairly well over the past few seasons, with 2005 especially strong (3.83 ERA, 163 K in 211.2 IP), but there's no guarantee he'll be able to keep it up. After Harang are a couple beer vendors, the bat boy, and "Gapper," the mascot.
Seriously, though, the Reds seem to be better than they were last year. Eric Milton simply can't be as bad as he was last year, where he posted the second-highest ERA in NL history (6.47) and allowed a ML-leading 40 HR. If he were just mediocre, it would be great news. Dave Williams is a spare arm obtained in the Sean Casey trade (was Williams all they could get for Casey?), and Brandon Claussen appears to be improving (although the clock is ticking on the soon-to-be-27-year-old). The Reds would give up on Paul Wilson, but they're paying him a lot of money, and there aren't any better choices for the #5 spot.
Bullpen
The Reds' bullpen was better last year than in 2004, and that's at least one reason to be happy. Kent Mercker and David Weathers may be stopgap veterans, but they're at least fairly good. Other than the youngsters, free agent signee Chris Hammond will step in. The 40-year-old is alternately good and simply average; either would be fine for the Reds.
Corners
The trade of Sean Casey means that Adam Dunn moves to first base. It's all good news; it's an easier position physically and finally gives the Reds a first baseman who really hits like one. Dunn's one of the game's premiere sluggers (248/383/518 career hitter) who doesn't get enough credit because of his low batting average, and because people have overestimated Great American Ballpark's friendliness to hitters.
Young Edwin Encarnacion looked overmatched during his brief 2005 trial in the majors, but he's the Reds' hope for the future at third base, so the job is his to lose.
Middle Infield
For some reason, no one gives Ryan Freel any credit. Freel, who turns 30 in May, is a career 276/369/377 hitter with solid defense and good speed. He's no Lou Whitaker, but he's a fine, cheap solution at second base. Most of the early-season reviews I've seen, however, have pegged Rich Aurilia as the starting second baseman. The Reds did sign Aurilia to a new deal in the off-season, as he was a valuable utility man and pinch hitter in 2005. There's no reason he couldn't fill the same role in 2006, because I don't see that he has a clear age over Freel. Aurilia has more power, but Freel has a better OBP and more speed. The Reds are already saturated with power, but they could sure use a good leadoff man. I guess this is just another reason that the Reds suck.
Felipe Lopez had a breakthrough year in 2005, hitting a healthy 291/352/486, despite atrocious defense that nearly negated his offensive contribution. Lopez was just 25 last year, so it's certainly possible that it was a breakout year for him, but his major league track record makes me leery to just assume that he's a good player all of a sudden. And his poor defense might see him better served at another position.
Outfield
The Reds have a good-hitting outfield in Wily Mo Pena, Ken Griffey, Jr., and Austin Kearns. And if even 2 of them stay healthy all season, I'll eat my hat. Griffey is still a potent hitter, as we saw last year (301/369/576), but has become a liability in center field. And, although he was healthy enough to play 128 games last year (which isn't a whole lot, actually), he's still as likely as ever to reinjure his brittle 36-year-old body.
Pena is one hell of a slugger, but that's it. There are guys (like Sammy Sosa) who can get by as just a home run hitter. Pena cannot, because his other offensive skills are really lacking. He's a career 248/303/477 hitter. Most of his slugging feats are offset by his dreadful plate discipline and his propensity for making outs. I don't know if the Reds are really intelligent enough to notice this, because unless it changes, it's hard to see Pena as a truly valuable full-time player.
Austin Kearns still has promise, sure, but his 112 games played last year was a career high. While he was an excellent hitter his first two seasons, he's been decidedly average his last two years (230/321/419 in '04 and 240/333/452 in '05), although this may be due to injuries.
So we've got an outfield that will hit its share of home runs, but staying healthy will be a big issue, as will defense (with the exception of Kearns).
Catching
The Reds have Jason LaRue, who isn't really great at anything, but neither is he that bad at anything. He's a decent defender, good hitter for his position, and a bargain. Javier Valentin is a solid backup, although 2005 was a huge career year at the plate.
Bench
It will be either Rich Aurilia or Ryan Freel as the backup infielder, both of them quite capable. The Reds traded for Tony Womack, which is about the dumbest thing I've heard so far this year. The only thing more amazing than the Yankees signing Womack to a multi-year deal is that, after Womack bombed in NYC (249/276/280), the Yankees actually found an even dumber team to pick up the rest of his contract. Other GMs should feel guilty about taking advantage of the Reds.
Management
With the gross ineptitude of the past administration wiped away, the Reds have the chance to start out fresh under a new owner and new GM. There is hope for the future, but we must be careful before we assume that the new ownership is any more qualified to run a ballclub that Carl Lindner was.
Projected Finish: 5th place
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates are hopeless. They keep wasting their money on mid-level free agents (Joe Randa, Jeromy Burnitz) that will only bump them up from 65 wins to 70, and then leave, cash in hand. The Pirates are completely unable to develop their own players (with a couple exceptions) and are thoroughly incompetent when it comes to trades and free agency. They call it the light at the end of the tunnel, but it's not a tunnel; it's a hole.
Starting Pitching
The Pirates do have a promising rookie in Zach Duke, their new ace. They've also got Oliver Perez, whose great 2004 was matched only by his dreadful 2005 (it's anybody's guess which guy shows up this year). After that, you have what could be generously termed the debris of the NL. Kip Wells is guaranteed a spot, out of habit if nothing else. Then the Pirates will sift through their replacement-level players and give two more of them slots in the rotation.
Bullpen
Good news here. The Pirates let free agent closer Jose Mesa walk (whereupon another Team of Fools in Colorado signed him). They're giving the closer's job to Mike Gonzalez, who has proven dominant in the setup role in years past. It's a smart, cheap, and efficient move, which is why it surprised me so. There are some other promising arms in the rotation, such as Salomon Torres, veteran Roberto Hernandez, and talented former White Sox Damaso Marte. But they simply won't have many close leads to protect.
Corners
Sean Casey is a bit overrated; he hits for a high average, but it's usually "empty," in the sense that it's not supported by good power or a lot of walks. But he's a damn fine upgrade over last year's 1B, Daryle Ward. And at least they only have to pay him for one year. 3B Joe Randa will be about average; whoopty do.
Middle Infield
The keystone combo of SS Jack Wilson and 2B Jose Castillo are is of the best double-play combos in the baseball; they are true masters of the glove. Now if they could only master that long, wooden stick used to hit the ball . . .
Outfield
The Pirates wasted perfectly good American currency on RF Jeromy Burnitz, when they already had a perfectly good outfielder (Craig Wilson) who can hit just as well if not better, with no more money spent. Young hris Duffy will take over in center, and his early performance seems to indicate reason for optimism. He's a fine defender and will likely take over the leadoff spot. LF Jason Bay is an MVP candidate; the smartest thing the Pirates did this off-season was sign Bay to a contract extension, covering his arbitration years.
Catching
There are questions about young Ryan Doumit's defense, but his bat makes him the favorite for the job. Humberto Cota will likely back him up.
Bench
Burnitz's signing puts Craig Wilson's potent bat on the bench. Jody Gerut is a versatile outfielder who should be valuable if healthy. Freddy Sanchez will be the backup infielder and should end up with plenty of playing time.
Management
The firing of Lloyd McClendon and hiring of Jim Tracy was an improvement; maybe 1, at most 2 games in the standings. The real improvement comes when the organization gets serious, the first step of which would be firing GM Dave Littlefield. Neither of which I think are likely to happen anytime soon. The Pirates won 67 games last year. I'd be surprised if they didn't fall within the 65-70 win range this year.
Projected Finish: 6th place