Where Does Griffey Rank?

Since Ken Griffey, Jr. retired a few days ago, he’s been referred to consistently as a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer.  I’m not so deluded as to disagree with this.  What I’d like to know is where he ranks all-time. 

Because of an injury-ridden second half of his career, I don’t really think we can call Griffey one of the best players of all time.  A more substantive question is whether or not Griffey is the best center fielder of all time.  He’s got some stiff competition for that title, but let’s take a look at the facts and see if we can’t shed some light on the subject.

I figured that a good point of comparison would be to rank Griffey against the center fielders currently enshrined in the Hall of Fame (excluding Negro Leaguers, for whom the statistical record is spotty).

Here is a list of the MLB Hall-of-Famers who spent most of their careers as a center fielder:

• Richie Ashburn, Phillies
• Earl Averill, Indians
• Max Carey, Pirates
• Ty Cobb, Tigers
• Earle Combs, Yankees
• Joe DiMaggio, Yankees
• Larry Doby, Indians
• Hugh Duffy, Braves
• Billy Hamilton, Phillies
• Mickey Mantle, Yankees
• Willie Mays, Giants
• Kirby Puckett, Twins
• Edd Roush, Reds
• Duke Snider, Dodgers
• Tris Speaker, Red Sox
• Lloyd Waner, Pirates
• Hack Wilson, Cubs

That’s 17 guys.  The best center fielders not enshrined in Cooperstown would be guys like Jimmy Wynn, Dale Murphy, George Van Haltren and Bernie Williams.  I’d like to add them to the list, just so we can be thorough.  There are a couple of active players who might be here by the time they retire (Edmonds, Andruw Jones, Beltran), but since they’re still going we’ll put them aside for the moment).

With this list of now 21 players, is there anyone we can dismiss right away?  A few, yes.  Lloyd Waner is one of the poorer players in Cooperstown, a guy who was a great singles hitter for a few years and didn’t offer a whole lot else.  Kirby Puckett, Earl Averill and Hack Wilson all had some fine seasons and solid careers, but none were around long enough to rival Griffey.  Earle Combs and Edd Roush were fine players, but they’re two of the lesser names on this list, to be sure.  Van Haltren has some impressive numbers, but they were compiled in a different era, not quite up to snuff in the 20th century. 

What does our list look like with these deletions?

• Richie Ashburn, Phillies
• Earl Averill, Indians
• Max Carey, Pirates
• Ty Cobb, Tigers
• Earle Combs, Yankees
• Joe DiMaggio, Yankees
• Larry Doby, Indians
• Hugh Duffy, Braves
• Ken Griffey, Jr., Mariners
• Billy Hamilton, Phillies
• Mickey Mantle, Yankees
• Willie Mays, Giants
• Dale Murphy, Braves
• Kirby Puckett, Twins
• Edd Roush, Reds
• Duke Snider, Dodgers
• Tris Speaker, Red Sox
• George Van Haltren, Giants
• Lloyd Waner, Pirates
• Bernie Williams, Yankees
• Hack Wilson, Cubs
• Jimmy Wynn, Astros

Let’s start the ranking process with a look at a few metrics to indicate career value:  WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player), WAR (Wins Above Replacement) and Win Shares.  They come courtesy of Baseball Prospectus, Fangraphs and Bill James Online, respectively.

Player	WARP	WAR	WS
Willie Mays	161.3	163.2	642
Ty Cobb	139.1	163.9	722
Tris Speaker	122.6	142.6	630
Mickey Mantle	112.5	123.1	565
Joe DiMaggio	98.0	92.0	387
Ken Griffey, Jr.	74.5	85.4	403
Billy Hamilton	66.2	68.9	337
Richie Ashburn	61.6	67.5	329
Bernie Williams	57.3	47.8	312
Jimmy Wynn	57.1	60.7	305
Duke Snider	53.6	71.7	352
Dale Murphy	45.3	47.3	294
Larry Doby	43.8	56.6	268
Hugh Duffy	40.5	46.5	295
Max Carey	40.3	66.6	351

This is a little hard to digest (it’s sorted by WARP, from highest to lowest).  There’s some disagreement here and there between the metrics.  However, all three measures indicate that there is a pretty big gap between the top six players on this list – that includes Griffey – and the rest.

Can we safely eliminate the rest of this list?  Yes, with some reservations.  WARP seems to indicate that Hamilton and Ashburn are within shouting distance of the top.  WAR seems to favor Duke Snider, as does Win Shares (along with Max Carey).

If there’s one player on here that threatens to turn the Gang of Six into the Gang of Seven, it’s Snider.  My impression of Snider is that while he was consistently great, he never had one truly excellent season.  I think that his best seasons wouldn’t quite compare with the rest of these guys.  Let’s test that theory, listing each player’s three best seasons according to WARP:

Player	Best	2nd	3rd
Willie Mays	11.3 (1964)	11.0 (1965)	10.8 (1963)
Ty Cobb	12.1 (1917)	11.3 (1909)	11.1 (1910)
Tris Speaker	10.2 (1914)	9.0 (1912)	8.7 (1916)
Mickey Mantle	12.3 (1957)	11.6 (1956)	10.4 (1961)
Joe DiMaggio	11.1 (1941)	10.5 (1937)	9.6 (1939)
Ken Griffey, Jr.	8.7 (1997)	8.1 (1998)	7.7 (1993)
Duke Snider	8.6 (1956)	7.6 (1955)	6.4 (1953)

Well, I was right about Snider, but the same could be said of Griffey.  Even when Griffey was young and healthy, he was never as good as Mays, Cobb, Speaker, Mantle or DiMaggio at their best.

How is that possible?  I think there are two factors:  one is that Griffey, while a good defender, was never the second coming of Willie Mays.  The hype is what made his very good defense seem game-changing.  Plus, a lot of Griffey’s great work was countered by his status as a defensive liability for the last seven or eight years of his career. 

The second reason for this ranking is that while Griffey was a great hitter, he was never an elite hitter, certainly not compared to the top four guys on the list.  Griffey’s best full season at the plate came in 1993, when he batted 309/408/617, with 45 homers.  (He did steal 17 bases, but he was caught 9 times, which means he was actually a liability on the basepaths.)

Here’s a bit of perspective, though:  Griffey’s offense peaked at the same time that offense across baseball was peaking.  In 1991, the entire American League hit 260/329/395.  In 1992, offense actually declined a bit, to 259/328/385.  Then in ‘93, things increased a bit.  League-wide offense rose to 267/337/408 (which doesn’t sound like a big increase, but it’s pretty significant for an entire league).  After that, offense went crazy.  Viz:

Year	AVG	OBP	SLG
1991	260	329	395
1992	259	328	385
1993	267	337	408
1994	273	345	434
1995	270	344	427
1996	277	350	445

We should view Griffey’s batting record in light of the league-wide surge in offense.  In the strike-shortened 1994, Griffey hit 323/402/674 compared to a league average of 273/345/434.  Compare that to Tris Speaker, who hit 383/464/567 in 1912, when the AL as a whole hit a paltry 265/333/348.  Griffey bested the league average by a point total of +50/+57/+240.  Speaker’s equivalent for 1912 would be +118/+131/+219.  Speaker was just on another planet that year.  Similar numbers can be found for Cobb and Mantle, who were even better hitters than Speaker.

Speaker’s 1912 season really enters another galaxy when you consider his defense.  His defense was as good as people thought Griffey’s was.  Speaker was, I think, the greatest defensive center fielder in major league history until the arrival of Willie Mays.  Speaker was famous for playing so shallow that he often ran to second for a pick-off play, or even (so I’ve heard) to record a putout.  The list of elite center fielders (defensively) in MLB history begins with Speaker, Mays, Curt Flood and Andruw Jones. 

I think we can safely say that there is, in fact, a Gang of Four center fielders, with no one else even really close to challenging them.  And if they do have a challenger, it isn’t Griffey; it’s Joe DiMaggio.

Keep in mind that the numbers above don’t account for the fact that DiMaggio missed three full seasons to World War II.  And this was while he was still in his prime:  he was 27 when he left and 31 when he got back.  In 1942, the year before he went to war, DiMaggio compiled 6.5 WARP.  In 1946, his first year back, he managed 5.3.  Even with the conservative estimate of 15 WARP lost to the army, DiMaggio would move up to 113 WARP, much closer to Mantle than to Griffey.  So if I may torture this catchphrase even further, we can end with the title “Gang of Four + Joe.”

So I must conclude by ranking Ken Griffey, Jr. the 6th-best center fielder of all time (with apologies to Oscar Charleston).  But considering the guys ranking above him, that’s no insult.  Griffey will sail into the Hall with as much as 95% of the vote.

And well he should.