Orgy of Spending

The word was that a lot of money was going to be thrown around this off-season. It's already started, and it's started very early. Teams are jumping at the opportunity to sign free agents before the new year, which is much faster than usual. They may be looking to get a good deal before the market changes. Or they may just be raising the market themselves by offering misplaced "bargains." We'll start with the biggest of them all (so far):

• The Chicago Cubs have reportedly agreed to an 8-year, $136 million contract with Alfonso Soriano. Now, I've been following baseball for some time now. It takes a lot to make me speechless -- to leave my lower jaw dragging on the ground. This contract has done it.
  I knew Soriano was going to get big money. I knew it might amount to "Beltran" money, or about $17 mil. a year. I figured Soriano would end up with something like $16-18 mil. for 5 years.
  But he surpassed even that. Soriano's $136 million is the 5th-biggest total package in major league history, behind only A-Rod, Manny Ramirez, Derek Jeter, and Todd Helton. It's worth noting that a) Soriano isn't nearly as good as any of those four players, b) he's older (31) than all of them were upon signing their deals, and c) even then, three of the four contracts listed above are now considered to be mistakes that the teams either have traded (A-Rod) or have tried desperately to trade (Ramirez, Helton).
  To commit Alfonso Soriano to this much money for 8 years is one thing and one thing only: ignorance brought about by sheer desperation.
  It's nothing new to say that the Cubs are desperate. They're a high-profile team that has underachieved for years. GM Jim Hendry's ass is on the line, and he's looking for anything he can get to save himself. In his desperation, he has turned to Soriano.
• Now, let us examine Soriano himself and the prospects that this deal will be a success. Soriano turns 31 years old in January. The deal will run through his 38-year-old season in 2014. At $17 million a year, you're counting on Soriano to be an MVP-caliber performer every year for 8 years, which is a near-impossible feat for anyone.
  Not only is Soriano's performance likely to decline in the coming years (especially his speed and defense), he's really not that good to begin with. The Cubs are paying Soriano to reproduce his 2006 season, where he hit 277/351/560 with 41 stolen bases. But how can you expect a 31-year-old to continue producing at a level that he's only reached once in his career? Soriano is a career 280/325/510 hitter. Among his most comparable players are Tony Batista, John Valentin, Bob Horner, and Geoff Jenkins. The best player among his top 10 comparables is Eric Chavez, who has defensive skills far and above anything Soriano has.
  Is it possible that Soriano can continue to hit like an MVP? It's highly doubtful. His 2006 season was so obviously a career year that it wouldn't be a surprise to see him revert to the unimpressive form he showed in Texas (in 2005, he hit 268/309/512 despite hitting in a hitter's park in the DH league). It's doubtful even that Soriano will continue to produce at his career levels; he's heading into the decline phase of his career and really wasn't that great to begin with. The Cubs have made the cardinal mistake of paying someone based on their best year ever, rather than basing it on their expected level of future production.
  The most unconscionable part of the contract is the 8-year commitment. Usually, when a team extends a contract to many years, they do it in return for a lower annual salary. But that doesn't seem to be the case here; the Cubs have damned themselves to paying Soriano both too much money and for too long. The risky proposition of an 8-year contract leaves the Cubs open to the possibility that Soriano's performance will tail off quickly, leaving them with no recourse but to eat the rest of his sizable contract.
  Realistically speaking, I cannot think of any scenario whereby this contract is a good one for Chicago. Even if Soriano hits to his 2006 level for 2 or three years and justifies his salary, that will be more than outweighed by the horrible prospect of paying him $17 million at age 38. Soriano's comparable players are full of high-strikeout players with little defensive value. This type of player almost never remains productive late into their 30's. The Cubs not only picked the wrong player to give this contract to, they picked the wrong type of player, which doesn't bode well for the future.
  But is there some reason to be optimistic about this deal? I guess there are a few. It will certainly boost the Cub offense in the short run. However, the Cubs are stuck with a player and no position for him to play. The Cubs already have about 5 second basemen (which is good, because Soriano should never return there). But they also already have a productive left fielder (Matt Murton) and a relatively productive right fielder (Jacque Jones). If the Cubs could trade Jones, that would make the deal somewhat more palatable, at least in the short run. The more likely result is that the Cubs will either bench or trade Murton. Neither of the three (Soriano, Murton, Jones) can play center field, which is odd, because that's a position that really is empty, unless the Cubs commit to rookie Felix Pie.
  To take this a bit further, let's assume that the Cubs replace Matt Murton with Alfonso Soriano. It seems like an amazing upgrade, due mainly to the inexplicable rise in Soriano's baseball reputation. What would they be getting in return? Let's examine them:
  
  Matt Murton, age 25: 303/370/462 career hitter in two seasons. Will earn the major league minimum of $400,000 in 2007. Strong defensive left fielder. Strong chance that his offense will improve even more.
  Alfonso Soriano, age 31: 280/325/510 career hitter in 8 seasons. Will earn $17 million in 2007. Poor left fielder who often looks completely lost. Good basestealer (which is of little importance). Strong chance his offense will decline from his career year in 2006, and then decline further as he ages. His speed will decline as well, as will his already-poor defensive skills.
  
  That's a pretty damn revealing comparison. Soriano has more star quality and has the better chance of hitting like an All-Star for a couple of years, moreso than Murton. He also has the stolen bases. But is that worth $16,600,000? The difference between Soriano and Murton is pretty marginal; I'd take Soriano over the short term, but Murton over the long term. Unfortunately, the Cubs have no choice but to stick with Soriano over the long term. This will prove even more disastrous in the later years of the contract, as the Cubs risk getting exactly zero contribution from Soriano for their $17 mil.
  
  Was this a bad move? Yes. Getting Soriano wasn't such a bad idea in principle, but the terms of the contract are hideous and could prove disastrous for Chicago's long-term plans. It's also a poor case of identifying your problems: the Cubs already had decent production in the outfield corners with no need to plunk down boffo bucks to improve there. They'd have been much better off spending on a 2nd-tier starting pitcher or a good middle infielder. Which brings me to my next point:
• The Cubs signed Mark DeRosa to be their starting second baseman for 3 years and $13 million. The bad news is that this move doesn't help the Cubs at all. DeRosa is a marginal defensive second baseman with a career batting line of 273/331/404. He'll be 32 years old next year, which means his defense could soon become untenable and his hitting could decline even further. The good news here is that while this move won't help the Cubs, it won't hurt them much either. DeRosa is an improvement over Ronny Cedeno, but then that's not saying much. Surely there was an actually good player out there to play second base. As it is, DeRosa will most likely just take up space, especially if he plays his way out of the starting lineup.
  This is another particularly damning move by Jim Hendry which should help seal his fate. With DeRosa and Soriano, you have two players coming off huge career years that Hendry signed to contracts. Hendy is either unfamiliar with the concept of the career year (which seems likely, since he's made the same mistake twice) or he's desperately trying to save his job. I'd say that both are true.
• On the plus side, the Cubs did re-sign Kerry Wood to a very sensible deal. Wood signed a 1-year deal for a lowly $1.75 million. The contract is loaded with incentives, so if Wood stays healthy and produces, he'll make a good deal more money. This is a very smart move for the Cubs; they need depth in their pitching staff without spending tens of millions on it. If all goes well, Wood could step in as a cheap relief ace and help the team big-time. If not, then the Cubs are only out $1.75 million, which is an utterly reasonable figure worth gambling on.
• In a move right out of the Jim Hendry playbook, the Cubs re-signed Henry Blanco to a two-year contract with -- get this -- an option for 2009. Now, you may wonder what 35-year-old backup catcher deserves a 2-year contract worth $5.25 million? The answer is, ya got me. There are about a dozen solid defensive catchers who hit no worse than Blanco who can be had for half a million dollars. And most of them are younger than Blanco, who is nearing the point of no return for catchers. Vintage Jim Hendry: overspending on useless part-time players while ignoring the team's real problems. I guarantee you that Hendry will sign some relief pitcher to a free agent deal, despite the fact that the Cubs need another relief pitcher like I need to gain another 10 pounds. But he does it every year.
• The Mets traded relief pitchers Royce Ring and Heath Bell to the San Diego Padres for outfielder Ben Johnson and relief pitcher Jon Adkins. I really like this deal for the Mets. In Johnson they have someone who could step in and start in both center field and right field and could end up as an offensive asset. If not, then he's a very valuable bench player. Adkins is a good relief pitcher who isn't completely reliable, but isn't very expensive either.
  I don't really understand this move by the Padres, since they need Johnson in their outfield even more than the Mets do. As of right now, the Padres don't have a left fielder at all, and the rest of their outfield is Mike Cameron and Brian Giles, and neither of them are going to play all 162 games. The Padres seem high on Bell as a reliever, but it would seem to me that settling the outfield would be a bigger priority. Again, it's possible that Kevin Towers sees something in these two that I don't. But it's also true that I stopped giving Towers the benefit of the doubt a couple years ago.
• The Cardinals signed Scott Spiezio to a 2-year contract worth $4.5 million. Remember when I spoke about how much teams overvalue useless role players on World Championship teams? This is Exhibit A: Spiezio lucked into a job with the World Champions, which somehow convinced someone that he was actually a worthwhile baseball player to have around. But Spiezio's a 34-year-old with limited defensive value on a team where he will likely just sit on the bench and fill in for Scott Rolen. He's not a true utility infielder, and he's not nearly as good a hitter as people think, making me wonder why someone would waste roster space (and good money) on a marginal player entering a significant decline. Everyone remembers how well Spiezio hit for the Cards in 2006. But do you remember the colossal flop he was in Seattle, where he hit 215/288/346 in 2004 (112 games) and 064/137/149 in 2005 (29 games)? Will the real Scott Spiezio please stand up?
• And on the exact same subject, the Tigers re-signed Sean Casey to a 1-year contract to return as their starting first baseman. I can't imagine how much LSD you would have to take to look at Sean Casey and see a major league first baseman. I've seen Pink Floyd movies that make more sense than this contract. Casey is an unathletic schlub who's been living off of a false reputation for years now. The 32-year-old Casey is a runner of the Mo Vaughn/Ernie Lombardi model, meaning that it's not really accurate to use "run" as the descriptor. He's a liability at first base and hit 272/336/388 last year, making one wonder exactly what it is that could convince someone that he has talent. He is a left-handed hitter, and the Tigers need one of those. Good -- so's my Aunt Sylvia. And she can run the 100-meters faster than Casey.
  Uggh.
• The Toronto Blue Jays signed a two-year deal with Frank Thomas for $18 million. The Thomas deal, like the contract extension the Tigers gave to Gary Sheffield (2 years, $28 million) is troubling. Thomas' 2006 was not a career year in the traditional sense; Thomas is every bit as good as he hit last year. But it may have been a career year in terms of health. Thomas turns 39 next May, and has played only 3 full seasons over the past 6 years. And at his age, he's only going to get worse. The Jays are paying Thomas to hit just as well as he did last year for two more years, and I just don't think that's a realistic gamble. It also gives the Jays yet another player on the wrong end of the defensive spectrum; they've got corner outfielders, corner infielders, and DHs by the score, and yet they have no catcher and their middle infield absolutely sucks. I don't fault J.P. Riccardi for spending money, but the people he chooses to spend it on are sometimes rather suspect.
  The Sheffield deal, by the way, is just stupid. Sheffield is just a few months younger than Thomas, is also coming off of injury troubles, and is getting $14 million a year. This is silly, absurd, and wretched, really. The odds of this deal turning out well for the Tigers are remote; if Sheffield hit like his old self for even one-and-a-half seasons, it could be considered a good contract. But that's a lot to ask of a 38-year-old with nagging wrist injuries. And the potential risk at the back end of the contract ($14 million at age 40) is a much bigger potential loss than the front end is a potential benefit.
• The Phillies signed Wes Helms to a two-year deal to fill in as their third baseman. This is a really silly deal. Helms hasn't played as a regular since 2003, because he can't hit right-handed pitching (career 263/316/431). That's a major handicap for any everyday player, especially one who isn't exactly Manny Ramirez against lefties (280/362/484 career). The Phils were likely blinded by Helms' 2006 with Florida, where he hit 329/390/575 in 240 ABs. It makes him look like a star, but what this hides is that Helms played almost exclusively against lefties, which fattened up his numbers. He was used well in Florida; if he's an everyday third baseman in Philadelphia, he will not be used well.
• The Reds signed shortstop Alex Gonzalez to a 3-year, $14 million deal. I'm at a loss to explain this; I guess the Reds just want to corner the market on players they don't need. The Reds are giving significant money (for 3 years!) to a decent defender who can't hit well enough to play every day. He's an improvement over Juan Castro, but not a $14-million impr0vement. This would also scratch plans to move Brandon Phillips to short and put Ryan Freel at second. So now Freel is once again a player without a position, and the Reds seem gloriously incompetent at getting the right 9 guys in the right 9 spots on the diamond.
• Reports are that the Mets are close to signing free agent Moises Alou. Alou, who is 40, would likely get a 1-year deal worth $8 or 9 million, with an option for 2008. This really complicates things in the Mets outfield, as it leaves Lastings Milledge out to dry (or out to trade, more likely) and puts Ben Johnson on the bench most of the time. That said, Alou is still a very potent hitter. While his playing time is limited by his age (he averaged 110 games a year his two seasons with the Giants), he's still a worthwhile pickup, without a doubt. The one-year contract is ideal due to his age, and I'm surprised that in this bull market for players Alou wasn't able to find comparable money with a second year guaranteed. This may jumble things up in the Mets' outfield, but it should be a good fix for 2007.
• On the managerial front, the Nationals have indeed hired veteran minor league manager and longtime coach Manny Acta. Despite his experience in the minors (and managing the Dominican team in the WBC), Acta will be the youngest manager in the majors, at age 37. He sounds very much like an easy-going player's manager, but I'm more impressed with the fact that he has a solid minor league track record and experience coaching.
• The Oakland A's hired bench coach Bob Geren to fill their managerial vacancy. Geren had served as bench coach under Ken Macha and had been friends with GM Billy Beane for years. In Oakland, the job description really reads "must be able to work with Billy Beane," and we'll see whether Geren can handle that task.
• Speaking of Oakland, the A's appear to be front-runners in the chase for free agent Barry Bonds. Talks with the Giants have broken down, and since incumbent DH Frank Thomas is gone to Toronto, the A's have apparently set their sights on Bonds. It would be a shrewd move to keep Bonds in the Bay Area, the one part of the country where he is still popular, and it would also be a coup to see him break Hank Aaron's record in an A's uniform. More importantly, Bonds is still a very potent hitter and is worth spending some money on. Going to the AL as a DH would keep Bonds in the lineup more often and increase his chances to break Aaron's record. It would also give the A's the big impact bat that they desperately need.
• Right now, that's all that is cooking in the majors. It finally emerged that the Red Sox' bid for Japanese pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka was an incredible $51 million. This was the fee they paid for the rights to negotiate a new contract to pay him even more money. While Matsuzaka projects to be a true ace, it's impossible to fathom how he could make a true return on such an investment.
• Third baseman Akinori Iwamura's posting process is over; the highest bid was by (surprise) the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. I haven't yet learned how much the bid was for, but it's a big surprise regardless. On one hand, I admire the D-Rays' attempt to take a good risk. On the other hand, I'm not sure they're in any position to take such a risk, as Iwamura alone won't make them a contender. Not only that, but the team's real weakness is pitching, not hitting, and they've already got a zillion candidates for the infield positions. We'll see how this turns out.

That's all for now, but I will, of course, keep you posted. The postseason awards have produced no real surprises or upsets as of yet. I don't agree with all of the awards, but they've all been at least reasonable choices. The MVPs will be announced over the next two days, and then we'll see how smart these voters really are.