NL West as we near the halfway point

[The first part of this blog was written two days ago. Instead of going through and changing all the stats I mention on account of two freakin' days, I'll just let you know ahead of time that the first part of this blog was written on Tuesday.]
So much can happen in two weeks.

• Seattle GM Bill Bavasi finally got fired, after much lobbying to that effect in this space. Seattle also fired manager John McLaren in what will hopefully be the beginning of a housecleaning in that franchise. It's lucky that the Mariners play in Seattle, because rarely has a team with such a high payroll been so bad.
• The Mets aren't nearly as bad off as the Mariners are, but you wouldn't know that to pick up a paper in the metropolis. The Mets' front office waffled like a tower of Jenga as the media forced them into firing Randolph. Blame the media for being so pugnacious, obnoxious, and ignorant (for a firing that didn't need to happen) and blame the upper levels of team ownership for refusing to take a firm stand to stave off attacks. Randolph was doomed the minute ownership showed that it wasn't ready to fully commit to him, and once the blood was in the water, the media sharks attacked and attacked until the team's already weak resolve was obliterated. It was a very bad showing for a team that isn't nearly as bad as everyone thinks it is, and a poor reflection of what life is like as a baseball figure in New York.
• Toronto also fired its manager, if only to give J.P. Ricciardi more room to fight for his own job (which was in jeopardy before he embarrassed himself on the radio). People in Toronto have much more reason to gripe over Ricciardi's performance, which includes a spotty track record, a sometimes huffy public manner, and the failure to develop even the hint of an offense. This isn't a defense of John Gibbons per se; I think he should have been fired after getting into a physical altercation with a player last season. But firing the manager to save yourself rarely works.

How's it Going at the 1/3 Mark? NL Central

Well, the NL Central is always full of surprises, which is fun if you're a fan, but can be pretty frustrating if you're an analyst. My predictions went along with the prevailing wisdom: the Cubs were the team to beat, the Brewers stood a good chance, the Reds were a dark horse, the Cards would finish fourth, and the Astros and Pirates would fight over last place. Well, it hasn't exactly worked out like that so far.
The one thing that has worked out is the Cubs as favorites. The Cubs have the best record in baseball despite dealing with some injury issues and some guys who haven't performed up to snuff. This is actually good news; if the Cubs can post a .645 winning percentage with flaws, what will they do if they can get everything fixed?
Offensively, the Cubs have had pretty much everything go their way. And, even better, they don't seem to be playing too far over their heads. They lead the league in scoring, with Aramis Ramirez (303/416/496) and presumptive Rookie of the Year Geovany Soto (288/376/532) leading the way offensively. Mark DeRosa may be hitting over his head (305/390/473), but even if his batting average settles down, he's still an asset.
Perhaps the most amazing thing about the Cub offense is that it hasn't had all the pieces clicking simultaneously. Derrek Lee has had some mild struggles (286/345/511, which is great for most people but just decent for him). Kosuke Fukudome (295/405/430) has played very well, but without the 20 HR-power he was supposed to have. And Alfonso Soriano (283/332/547), who's had injury troubles before, just got hit in the hand with a pitch. Soriano was actually getting booed some at Wrigley Field, which I find hard to understand, since he's hitting right in line with his career numbers.

I Am Ozzie, Hear Me Roar

There's been a lot of interesting things happening in baseball lately. The Reds finally called up Jay Bruce to fill the center field spot, just in time for them to realize that this season is pretty much done. Thanks to Dusty Baker and Wayne Krivsky for screwing up what could have been a Wild Card contender. One of them is fired, and the other should be.

• The Mariners' situation is just awful. They're 21-39, 15.5 games out of the AL West, dead last and well behind the 3rd-place Rangers. The prevailing optimism about the 2008 Mariners was something I never agreed with. Their performance last year was largely a fluke, and I didn't expect them to do more than finish a distant 2nd. It turns out that even I may have been too optimistic about the team. There's always the chance that they'll turn things around, but my goodness, they just suck. Of their five main starting pitchers, the only one who's played above replacement level has been Felix Hernandez, whose 15.8 VORP is tops among Seattle pitchers and second on the team only to Ichiro (16.3). (That's above replacement level -- not above average. Four of the Mariners' starters are pitching about as well as Rob Bell or Mark Redman for 10-15 times the salary.) King Felix has a 3.29 ERA along with 69 K in 82 innings. After that, the rotation (the very expensive rotation) is a horrific disaster. Erik Bedard has only made 10 starts, but his 4.47 ERA and 26:49 BB:K ratio aren't in line with the ace reputation he brought over from Baltimore.
  But that's the good news.

How's it Going at the 1/4 Mark? NL East

We're about 25% of the way through the regular season, so it's about time to stop and take stock of what's going on, division by division. Let's take a look at the surprises and disappointments, and try to determine what's just a fluke and what's going to last.

NL EAST

Boy, there's a huge ruckus coming out of New York about the Mets, with silver-tongued Billy Wagner feeding the fire. Wagner recently called out and cursed out his teammates for not speaking to reporters. Wagner then backtracked, saying he was criticizing the media, not his teammates, which is about as transparent a lie as you'll come across. The Mets called a big team meeting today to discuss Wagner's comments and the state of the team. Manager Willie Randolph is now perceived to be on the "hot seat," with somebody trying to shake the team out of its malaise.

Oh, and by the way -- the Mets are 21-19. They're 1.5 games out in the division, in 3rd place behind Florida and Philadelphia. Now, to you and I, 21-19 and 1.5 out probably doesn't sound like a good reason to start pushing the panic button and burning people in effigy. But then, you and I don't live in New York (at least, I don't). The fans and the media are still smarting over last season's collapse, and I think we're seeing a delayed reaction of anger and resentment. After the Santana trade, the Mets were supposed to dominate the NL East, and since they haven't yet met that standard, they're already getting roasted.

Is there cause for concern in Queens? Of course. The Mets have been disappointing, even if it's only a relative disappointment judged as such just six weeks into the season.

How to Write a Baseball Play

I recently decided to write a one-man show about baseball. I've been running dry recently, creatively speaking, so I decided to combine two of my creative passions, baseball and theatre, to direct my energies toward a specific end.
I wanted to do something that would tell the history of baseball, but from several different perspectives. I didn't just want players; I wanted managers, owners, GMs, scouts, reporters, and even fans. I also wanted to pick stories that were about more than just baseball. Retelling the final innings of the 1924 World Series would be exciting to a baseball fan, but maybe not to an average play-goer. So I decided that if I was to include pure "baseball" moments, they would still have to be relevant to people who weren't baseball fans. The great thing about baseball is that so many famous players, moments, and myths are connected to a specific moment in history, or are at least part of a larger story that makes them compelling no matter who you are. It was these stories I wanted to tell, but through the lens of the national pastime (that was even my first idea for a title: simply, "Pastime").

News bits and Required Reading

I'm watching the Cubs and Reds right now on WGN, and commentator Len Kasper mentioned a breaking baseball story that caught my attention immediately. So I went online to check it out, and there it was: Tejada admits to being two years older than he had said. Miguel Tejada, whose birthday has always been listed as May 25, 1976, admitted that he was actually born May 25, 1974. Tejada's admission came just as ESPN was about to air a special with evidence exposing Tejada's real birthday.
First of all, what does this mean? It's bad news, any way you slice it. Astros GM Ed Wade said, ""Fact of the matter is that he plays like he's 25, so I don't think it really matters a whole lot." Well, Ed Wade might actually be dumb enough to believe that, but in reality, there's a huge difference in baseball between age 32 and age 34. The Astros owe Tejada $13 million dollars over the next two seasons, plus $4 million in deferred payments on his signing bonus. Tejada doesn't turn 34 until May, but that still means that the Astros are committing big money to a mid-30s player who can no longer play a key defensive position. And for a team whose best case scenario is 4th place, that's absolutely unacceptable. I wasn't such a fan of the Tejada trade when it happened, and now I think it's a terrible idea.
But could the Astros have known about the lie? Yes. In fact, they could have found out so easily, that it's a joke that no one figured this out sooner. Tejada's real birth date was on his green card and his driver's license! I guess the real culprits here are the Orioles, who signed Tejada to the contract in the first place. Before investing so much money in a player, I would run some background to make sure he was really as young as he claimed. And it seems like the most cursory of background checks would have revealed Tejada's real age.
I'm sure there will be more people, like Ed Wade, who just say, "Hey, he's a good player, and that's all that matters." That's a load of crap. With a baseball player -- any baseball player -- you can't predict the future. The only thing you can do is come up with a rough forecast based on a player's basica ttributes, with age being #1 among them. Many people think of baseball players as absolutely unique; like snowflakes. But in reality, it's very easy to make broad estimates of a player's future performance based on a few select criteria. And age is at the top of the list. A player's skills get worse as he gets older, and the closer you get to 40, the faster the decline occurs. You may not want to take such a dim view of Tejada's future, but I'm afraid that everything we know about baseball leads us to a fairly simple conclusion: players get worse as they get older, and every year -- especially every two years -- makes a difference.

• The blog Florida Marlins Finances takes a close look at the financial records of the team and comes to a pretty strong conclusion: the team isn't nearly as bad off as they would like you to believe.
• Former major leaguer Doug Glanville wrote this piece for the New York Times. You don't find many ballplayers who are this articulate.
• These pictures of Hideki Okajima's delivery are fascinating -- unless human contortionists make you sick.
• I love this t-shirt for many, many reasons.

Back soon, with words for the eternally grumpy Murray Chass.

Rules is Rules

We're about two weeks into the season and have seen some interesting, if not earth-shattering, developments. The one that's struck me the most is the dispute over the third base coach's box. It seems that the umpires are going to be cracking down on more of the little things this year, or so it seemed when Yankees third base coach Larry Bowa was ejected from a game for standing outside the coach's box on the third base line. The umpire said that he warned him not to stand there, but Bowa (being Bowa) told him to shove off. The ump tossed Bowa and got a lot of people miffed.
The thing is that no one ever -- ever -- enforces the rule about the third base coach standing in the box. Very few coaches actually stand there; they move out to get away from errant line drives and to stand where the oncoming base runner can better see them. They've been doing this for years, and Bowa's ejection over this rule has to be the first in I don't know how long. The umpire claimed that he was just doing what the chief umpires were saying: enforce the rules, especially this one. And yet no other umpire has made a stink over the issue.
Stuff like this happens a lot, and it usually isn't a very big deal, but over time, it gets on my nerves.

2008 Season Predictions

American League

AL East:

Boston Red Sox (98-64) 96-100 win range

New York Yankees (93-69) 91-95 win range

Toronto Blue Jays (83-79) 81-85 win range

Tampa Bay Rays (80-82) 78-82 win range

Baltimore Orioles (66-96) 64-68 win range

AL Central:

Cleveland Indians (96-66) 94-98 win range

Detroit Tigers* (96-66) 94-98 win range

Minnesota Twins (82-80) 80-84 win range

Kansas City Royals (78-84) 76-80 win range

Chicago White Sox (71-91) 69-73 win range

AL West:

Los Angeles Angels (97-65) 95-99 win range

Seattle Mariners (85-78) 83-87 win range

Texas Rangers (76-86) 74-78 win range

Oakland Athletics (72-90) 70-74 win range

ALCS: Indians over Red Sox

World Series: Indians over Mets

AL MVP: David Ortiz, Red Sox

AL CY YOUNG: John Lackey, Angels

AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Evan Longoria, Rays

National League

ESPN.com Polls

I'm always interested in a chance to make some predictions for the forthcoming season, if only because it gives me a chance to make some well-documented mistakes before the first pitch of the regular season is thrown (at 6 AM eastern time). ESPN.com is gauging the nation's response to some big issues going into the 2008 season, so I decided to weigh in with my answers and see what the rest of "SportsNation (c)" is thinking.

Q: Who will win the NL East?

WK (Whiz Kid): Mets

SN (SportsNation): Mets (60.7%); Phillies (21.7%); Braves (14.3%); Nationals (1.6%); Marlins (1.4%)

I agree with the prevailing wisdom here, and my reasons will be detailed in my next article, which will be a full-scale round of win-loss predictions for the 2008 season. But suffice to say that the offense is good enough, and if the pitching staff was good enough to come close last year, Johan pushes them over the top. The Phillies will make it interesting, but it's hard to see how any of their off-season gains offset Johan even a smidge. If the Mets lose, it won't be because of the Phillies; it will be because of injury.

AL West Preview

Los Angeles Angels
2007 W-L: 94-68
2007 pW-pL: 90-72
Strengths: Pitching staff, Vlad Guerrero
Weaknesses: Overpaid $50 million+ outfield, lack of offensive punch
Biggest Change from '07: Torii Hunter and Jon Garland
One Reason:

One reason the Angels will win in '08 is that no team in the division is within 10 wins of them.

One reason the Angels will lose in '08 is if they change divisions.
Notes:
The $50 million outfield referred to above is Torii Hunter ($16MM), Vladimir Guerrero ($14.5MM), Garret Anderson ($12MM) and Gary Matthews, Jr. ($9MM). Hunter is signed for 4 more years, Matthews for 3 more, and Guerrero and Anderson have 1-year club options for 2009. This pretty pickle means that somebody (Anderson and/or Guerrero) will play DH, sharing time with Juan Rivera (who's making just a little more than $2MM). Here's how these guys did last year, listed with their age in the forthcoming 2008 season:

AL Central Preview

Chicago White Sox
2007 W-L: 72-90
2007 pW-pL: 67-95
Strengths: Star Power
Weaknesses: Age, Contrition, Wrong Division
Biggest Change from '07: Shuffling of some names, but not enough to matter
One Reason:
One reason the White Sox will win in '08 is that there is some upside here. The lineup has some holes, but it's not hard to imagine Jim Thome, Nick Swisher and Paul Konerko putting up good numbers. And maybe Bobby Jenks, Jermaine Dye, A.J. Pierzynski, Orlando Cabrera, and young Carlos Quentin can, too. The rotation is still solid, headed by Mark Buehrle and Javier Vazquez, but it got much thinner with the departure of Jon Garland.
One reason the White Sox will lose in '08 is I'm not very optimistic about most of those names. Thome and Swisher are the only ones that are pretty much a lock for All-Star production, although keeping Thome healthy is an issue. Konerko is still strong, but is on a slippery slope towards becoming offensively average at first. Pierzynski is -- and has been -- average for years, and I wouldn't expect much more than that from Dye, who's getting older (34) and farther removed from a career year in 2006. And I'm not buying Bobby Jenks as the next big thing -- he's as volatile a closer commodity as there is, meaning his ERA is just as apt to be 4.00 as 2.50.
Notes:

AL East Preview

Baltimore Orioles
2007 W-L Record: 69-93
2007 pW-pL Record: 71-91
Strengths: Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, Brian Roberts**-- if they don't trade him
Weaknesses: Pitching, Pitching, Pitching ... and the rest of the offense
Biggest Change from '07: Bye-Bye Bedard
One Reason:
One reason the Orioles will win in '07 is an act of God.

NL West Preview

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

2007 W-L Record: 90-72
2007 pW-pL Record: 79-83
Strengths: Maturing young blue-chippers, Brandon Webb
Weaknesses: Inconsistent offense, tough division
Biggest Change from '07: Dan Haren
One Reason:

NL Central Preview

CHICAGO CUBS
2007 W-L Record: 85-77
2007 pW-pL Record: 87-75
Strengths: Strong Offense, Solid Pitching
Weaknesses: OBP, Depth
Biggest Change from '07: Fukudome and his .400+ OBP

One Reason:
One reason the Cubs will win in '08 is that the best is set low in the NL Central. The Cubs won the division last year, have managed to improve over the offseason (without spending $1 billion), and aren't facing any rivals presenting serious challenges. They're not absolutely safe from Milwaukee or even possibly Cincinnati, but they're easy favorites.
One reason the Cubs will lose in '08 is that a lot of their production is precarious. The best-case scenario for their lineup is good, but if Fukudome struggles in his first U.S. season, or if Aramis Ramirez and/or Alfonso Soriano take a step back to mediocrity, the Cubs will be hard-pressed to replace them. There aren't a lot of backup plans for the lineup, and the same could be said for the rotation, where an inordinate amount of pressure rests on Carlos Zambrano and Ted Lilly. The Cubs do have some backups here in Jon Lieber and Sean Marshall, but neither of them can replace an injured or ineffective Zambrano.

Notes:

A Lesson in Hyperbole

I've kept up with the Roger Clemens fiasco only enough to have a sense of what is going on. Unlike the rest of the mainstream media, I take no delight in crucifying an ex-hero for "letting us all down," especially since the media never really liked him in the first place, which matters more than any PED accusation. I also have no interest in watching someone aggressively and obnoxiously try to force back the tides of suspicion, as if the truth can be defeated by sneers, press releases, and unbelievably inappropriate taped phone conversations. The offensive cult of celebrity and empty controversy is attracting all of the scavengers and hangers-on to be expected where free publicity is to be given away.
So it was with some dismay that I read Howard Bryant's espn.com column today. 

My baseball bookshelf

Often after I've read a baseball book, I'll share a few thoughts about it in my blog. But because I often have so much to say, and I try to read as many baseball books as possible, I decided to write an actual review of each baseball book I read in this space to help give my readers an idea of what's out there, good and bad.
My first review will be the book I just finished, Weaver on Strategy by Earl Weaver with Terry Pluto. That will come later. But first, here's a quick look at my baseball bookshelf. I value my shelf very much, except that my baseball-only shelf has started to spill over elsewhere. But I love them all. So here is, in no particular order, my personal baseball library:

Total Ballclubs: The Ultimate Look at Baseball Teams by Donald Dewey & Nicholas Acocella. This is one of the best baseball books I've ever read, and it's also one of the foremost references I've ever come across. It focuses more on the behind-the-scenes activity among owners, executives, and the public, dealing with every single major league baseball team. It's a great source of historical reference and fabulous anecdotes. I used this book extensively for my blog series on the history of expansion teams.

I HAVE RETURNED (NL East Preview)

First off, greetings from never-never land. After a much-too-long hiatus, I have returned to the land of Whizdom. My time away from baseball was against my will, as I've had a pile-up of medical problems over the past six weeks, including being diagnosed with diabetes. A lot has changed since then, and I've found it difficult to generate the energy to pursue my former hobbies, among them this website. But I have returned to start my full-scale preview of the 2008 season. I'll blog again soon to cover all the news I missed while I was gone (something about Roger Clemens).


Before I open up my 2008 preview with a close look at the Alanta Braves, two quick notes:

I had a steak once that was non-tendered ...

• The Cubs re-signed Kerry Wood to a one-year contract for $4.2 million. Rumor has it that Wood turned down multi-year offers from other teams to take the Cubs' offer. I see this as a good move for Chicago. Upon this announcement, the word was that the Cubs would move erstwhile closer Ryan Dempster back into the rotation and make Wood their closer. I'd lean more toward Carlos Marmol as closer, but then the Cubs could do what they did last year and have Marmol pitch a lot of high-leverage innings in the 7th and 8th and leave Wood the plum job of closer. That way, even if Wood does get injured, it won't affect Marmol's ability to handle the tough stuff.
  The Cubs also won the bidding for Japanese outfielder Kosuke Fukudome. Fukudome's contract is for 4 years and $48 mil. -- about Hideki Matsui money. That seems pretty reasonable to me in today's market -- according to Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA system, Fukudome should manage to hit about 300/400/500 with the Cubs. Essentially, he's Bobby Abreu. The most important thing is that high OBP; Fukudome takes a lot of pitches and works the count for walks, which makes him especially valuable to the Cubs, who don't have anybody else (except maybe Derrek Lee) who does that. I agree that with the Fukudome signing, the Cubs now look like the favorites in the NL Central.
• Blockbuster trade #1: the Twins sent Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, and Eduardo Morlan to the Rays for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, and Jason Pridie. It's not often that two big prospects get swapped for each other; especially when one (Garza) is a pitcher and another (Young) is a hitter.
  

Mr. Rickey

Another day goes by, as the sports media pokes major holes in the Mitchell Report (oddly enough, Sports Illustrated and other mainstream sites seem much more willing to let the Mitchell Report fly as is).
For this blog, though, I am here to talk about the past. The distant past. In particular, a certain Hall-of-Fame executive named Branch Rickey.
I have the greatest admiration for Branch Rickey both for what he accomplished on the field and off. He built up dynasties wherever he went (except Pittsburgh, but nobody's perfect), proved an innovator in new baseball knowledge, technology, and methodology, and most importantly, was the man on the inside to bring down baseball's color barrier.

Mitchell

If you live in the Western Hemisphere, you're probably aware that the Mitchell Report came out today. ESPN devoted some 6 hours of coverage to the press conferences of George Mitchell, Bud Selig, and Don Fehr today, interspersed with hotheaded murmurmings of a whole flock of talking heads.
I'm going to save my final assessment of the Mitchell Report until I've had a chance to read the thing (420 pages, but handily available in PDF format). But, inspired by Howard Bryant's thought-provoking column, I'm going to respond to the report's release not with more statements of fact, or alleged fact -- we've had our fill of that today -- but with questions.