A.L. Central Off-Season: Team by Team

Chicago White Sox

Nov. 6:  White Sox sign Mark Kotsay to a one-year contract worth $1.5 MM.
There’s not a great deal of demand for an outfielder/first baseman who hasn’t had a decent year at the plate since 2005 (2009 line:  278/327/390).  To be fair, there is some value here as a guy who can spot Paul Konerko, sub at all three outfield spots, and still hit righties fairly well.  I just wonder if the Sox should be focusing on bigger, perhaps better solutions to their problems on offense. 

Nov. 6:  White Sox trade Chris Getz, Josh Fields and cash to the Royals for Mark Teahen.
Teahen is a placeholder at third, and that’s being generous.  His bat is adequate, but his glove isn’t.  You’d probably be better off waiting for Godot than waiting for Josh Fields to break out.  The concern here is that you’re also giving up a useful, if flawed, player in Getz.  And on a practical level, you’re paying more for Teahen and getting less service time before free agency.  My guess is that this move doesn’t have a big impact on the team, either positive or negative.

A.L. West Off-Season: Team by Team

Los Angeles Angels

Nov. 6:  Angels re-sign Bobby Abreu to a two-year contract worth $19 MM, with a vesting option for 2012.
Abreu’s $5 million contract for 2009 was (over-)reported as the biggest bargain of the offseason.  And it may have been.  Abreu brought much-needed plate discipline (.390 OBP) to a team that has never actively sought high-OBP players.
The snag is that Abreu has gone from under- to over-rated very quickly.  His power is basically gone.  He hasn’t hit more than 30 homers since 2001, and hasn’t hit more than 20 since 2005.  His 15 blasts in 2009 are a more accurate predictor of his future.
Granted, when combined with an excellent approach at the plate, 15 homers is enough.  The more immediate problem is Abreu’s declining defense.  He wasn’t as good as his reputation in his younger days and is quickly degenerating to designated-hitter status.  If that day comes in the next two years, it will be the Angels’ problem to deal with.  Because if his on-base skills slip, he could end up being a below-average DH.
The lesson here is that the same player who’s a bargain at 1/$5MM may not be one at 2/$19MM.

Dec. 16:  Angels sign Hideki Matsui to a one-year contract worth $6 million.

N.L. West Off-Season: Team by Team

Arizona Diamondbacks

Dec. 9:  The D-Backs completed the following three-team trade:

TEAM	LOSING	RECEIVING
Yankees	Ian Kennedy,Phil Coke, Austin Jackson	Curtis Granderson
D-Backs	Max Scherzer, Daniel Schlereth	Edwin Jackson, Kennedy
Tigers	Granderson, Jackson	Scherzer, Schlereth, Coke, Jackson

This deal makes good sense for the Yankees; they needed an everyday center fielder, and they’re not giving up any impact players.
The deal also makes good sense for Detroit; Granderson was overrated and besides, the team really needed to save money.  They get back well-needed pitching depth.
 For the Diamondbacks . . . well, the deal makes no sense.

N.L. Central Offseason – Team by Team

Chicago Cubs

Dec. 31:  Cubs sign Marlon Byrd to a three-year contract worth $15 MM.

The thinking here is that Byrd can be their starting center fielder.

Let’s take a look at Marlon Byrd’s recent history first:

YEAR	PA	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG
2007	454	10	307	355	459
2008	462	10	298	380	462
2009	599	20	283	329	479

Not bad for a center fielder.  But Byrd was playing for Texas those seasons – in hitter-friendly Ameriquest Field (or whatever the hell it’s called now).
Here’s what My Darlin’ Marlon did on the road those years:

YEAR	PA	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG
2007	230	6	259	304	410
2008	224	3	297	362	411
2009	292	6	285	322	419

I believe the word I’m looking for is … erp!  (Byrd is a career 272/322/393 hitter on the road.  Double erp!)

N.L. East Offseason – Team by Team

Atlanta Braves

Nov. 13:  Braves sign Tim Hudson to a 3-year deal for $28 MM, with a club option for 2013.

The only question here is how well you expect Tim Hudson to age.  Based on Hudson’s track record, he’s easily worth 9 million per, even for his age 34-36 seasons.

But Hudson is coming off Tommy John surgery that limited him to 29 starts over the past two seasons.  They were 29 good starts, but that is still troubling for someone entering his mid-30’s.  It would be great to have him for one healthy season before committing to a multi-year deal, but the team doesn’t have that luxury.  While Hudson may never be an ace again, this contract isn’t likely to turn into an albatross, although I think I said the same thing about Derek Lowe’s deal.

Dec. 2:  Braves sign Billy Wagner to a 1-year deal for $7 MM, with a club option for 2011.

The 5th Annual Whiz Kid Awards

With pitchers and catchers reporting to Spring Training within a month (YEEHA), it’s time for me to publish my final articles on the 2009 season.  If time permits, a team-by-team postmortem is forthcoming, but that may not be feasible.  So I thought I’d go ahead with the 5th Annual (!) Whiz Kid Awards.
The Whiz Kid Awards began back in 2005 as my contribution to the year-end awards discussion.  I also added in a few unique categories to add my own stamp to things.  I may be late to the party with this, but you’re never too late to stir the stool, so to speak.

AMERICAN LEAGUE MVP:  Joe Mauer

The Mauer-for-MVP discussion was just the latest episode of the so-called Moneyball debate.  Mark Teixeira made an early bid for the AL honor by piling up HR and RBI on the AL Champions.  But on the same team, Derek Jeter was having one of the best seasons of his career.  This prompted many Jeter fan-boys to plead his case for the MVP as a “lifetime achievement” award.
I hate and despise lifetime achievement awards unless they are clearly labeled as such and nothing more.  It may be that they’ve never merited the award in any one season, but just deserve it based on their career.  Or they’re meant to honor someone who, for various reasons, didn’t get the honor when they should have … perhaps because somebody else was getting a lifetime achievement award.  That’s the crux of the matter; if we give Jeter a bogus MVP award this year, are we going to have to do the same for Mauer in ten years?  And which deserving young superstar will that screw over?
That aside, the biggest (and most substantive) objection to Mauer’s MVP case is that he lost about a month to injury at the start of the season.  The implication is that you can’t miss a month and be the MVP.  And I would usually agree with that.  It would take a phenomenal performance by a player to be the league’s best player with such a handicap.

2009 in Review

Time to revisit my preseason predictions.  Unfortunately. 

AL EAST PREDICTED:
New York Yankees (98-64) 96-100 win range
Boston Red Sox (93-69) 91-95 win range
Tampa Bay Rays (87-75) 85-89 win range
Toronto Blue Jays (79-83) 77-81 win range
Baltimore Orioles (73-89) 71-75 win range

And here’s what actually happened:

AL EAST ACTUAL:
New York Yankees (103-59) + 5 Wins
Boston Red Sox (95-67) +2 Wins
Tampa Bay Rays (84-78) -3 Wins
Toronto Blue Jays (75-87) -4 Wins
Baltimore Orioles (64-98) -9 Wins
Other than the Orioles, all of my predictions fell within five wins of the mark, a reasonable margin of error. 

Breaking the Silence

To Everyone --

I cannot be any more sorry that I have neglected this blog as long as I have.

More important than anything is that I have neglected myself. I have been struggling mightily with depression and anxiety these past few years and am sorry to say that I was losing the battle there for a while.

The things that interested me the most – baseball, movies, books, etc. – no longer held sway. On top of that, I felt a duty to keep working and maintaining this blog – which celebrated its 4th anniversary recently – and the longer I neglected that duty the tougher it became to break the silence and return to it.

Consider the silence broken.

Writing had become too much of a job for me. The anxiety I was dealing with in my everyday life was the worst factor, of course, but I also felt a duty to write first and foremost for Blogcritics.com, and unfortunately that just became more of a chore than a joy. I haven’t yet decided if I will return to Blogcritics, but I have decided that my first duty is to have fun – and that happens right here, first and foremost. If that means that writing will always be an amateur passion for me, so the hell be it.

I very much hope that, having partially relieved my anxiety with this post, I can return to writing about what I love. My first project – and I use that word hesitantly given the connotation with work – will be the postseason recap that’s been a feature of this blog for four years now. In the meantime, I hope to discuss the offseason Hot Stove, namely the MLB Winter Meetings now taking place.

I sincerely hope that I can just go back to having fun.  Then I can start conveying that fun to other people, which is what the whole damn thing was about in the first place.

Thank you – sincerely and mightily – for your support.

Best regards,

Aaron “W.K.” Whitehead

P.S. I’m seriously contemplating a “re-branding” of this blog. I like the catchiness of “whiz kid,” but I’ve never been comfortable with the arrogance inherent in calling myself that. Plus, I’m not really a kid by any means now.  I may be back to discuss my thoughts or just go for something new on a whim. Feedback is always appreciated.

BP Idol Entry: I Miss Skip & Pete

Author's Note: Recently, the Baseball Prospectus website asked for submissions for a new contest, Baseball Prospectus Idol. The editors would pick the ten best submissions, and the BP readers would vote off one writer each week. Unfortunately, I did not make the cut. Still, I was very proud of my submission. Since it won't be shown at BP, I'd like to introduce it here.

"Eleven to four
That's the score
And now the Braves
Will try for more."
-- Skip Caray

I can only think of four times over the past five years that I have been "giddy." Please understand that I am not a naturally giddy person; my level of emotion ranks somewhere between "shy and reserved" and "Vulcan." But I remember vividly what it was that made me, Sam the Eagle, giddy with joy like a little kid. It's no surprise that it was usually something to do with baseball: 

1. Yankee Stadium.

Baseball Book Review: Forever Blue by Michael D'Antonio

If any baseball figure represents pure evil in the hearts of longtime fans, it isn't Barry Bonds. Nor Alex Rodriguez, Pete Rose, Ty Cobb, or even the Chicago Black Sox. No, for many people, especially traditionalists, the most evil figure in baseball history is Walter O'Malley, who owned and operated the Dodgers for more than thirty years. What possible transgression could the owner of a baseball team commit that would surpass the damage done by the players listed above?
Simple. He moved the Dodgers from Brooklyn to Los Angeles.
It is this one act that has defined him -- and damned him -- for many, many years. But O'Malley's true impact on the game of baseball was quite vast and covered many different aspects of the game. In Forever Blue: The True Story of Walter O'Malley, Michael D'Antonio gets to the bottom of this familiar myth and tries to reveal the truth behind it. Yes, O'Malley did, as owner of the Dodgers, make the decision to move the team to Los Angeles. However, the characterization of him as an evil manipulator who broke the hearts of a neighborhood and ripped a civic institution away from a passionate community is the utter fiction. That the myth has survived so long proves the persistence of true hatred, especially when it comes to baseball.
For the most part, Michael D'Antonio does a fine job with his biography of O'Malley. He offers a concise view of the years leading up to his involvement with the Dodgers, astutely noting the most relevant stories and putting them together to create a realistic image of this now-mythical man. Granted, the end leaves much to be desired, but I'll get to that later.

Walter O'Malley came to own the Dodgers in a very roundabout way. As part of his job with the Brooklyn Trust Company, O'Malley was assigned to keep close tabs on one of the bank's biggest debtors: the Brooklyn Dodgers. The "Daffiness Boys" of the 1930's were rarely winners, but they always entertained the fans and soon became a part of the Brooklyn cultural identity. Unfortunately, the Dodger "daffiness" also applied to the team's business dealings off the field. The team's financial affairs were a mess. Not only that, but decision-making at the executive levels was thwarted by squabbling among the heirs of the team's previous owners. It's hard to imagine a more hopeless situation for a young, inexperienced lawyer such as Walter O'Malley.

The 15 Greatest Baseball Books

I recently had a reader ask for my list of the best baseball books ever written. Keeping in mind that there are many important books that I haven't read, I was still excited to be able to share some of my favorites. Summer reading season is approaching, and what better way is there to show your commitment to baseball than to haul a 600-page statistical tome to the beach. Sure, the people around you reading 150-page light romance novels may think you're a big geek. But as someone who likes to write lists of his favorite baseball books, I've come to terms with my geekiness.


The reason that this is a Top 15 list is that I started with a Top 10 list but couldn't bear to exclude any more books. Even so, I'm going to include a small list of "recommended reading" for some books that still didn't make the cut.
Before I get into specific books, I want to talk about a few staples of the baseball library that don't really belong on the list, for various reasons:

• Baseball Encyclopedias. Baseball encyclopedias used to be an essential part of any fan's library. But with the emergence of the internet -- especially retrosheet.org and the online baseball eden known as baseball-reference.com -- fans can get most of the stats in the encyclopedias for free online. There's also a Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia developed by Lee Sinins and sold as a computer program. I bought my last real baseball encyclopedia in 2003 (picking up the last edition of the Total Baseball series), but recently bought Sinins' program, which offers more options than your average website.
  
• Annuals, or Season Previews: These are often fantastic and invaluable sources of information. But if I included them on the Top 15 list, they'd take up 5 spots. And an annual's value obviously isn't as timeless as that of any other book. Some exceptions would be the Bill James Baseball Abstracts published in the late 70's and early 80's. Now, the premier baseball annuals are those published by Baseball Prospectus every February. You can also get a great deal of info and analysis from The Hardball Times, which published two books this off-season: a recap of the 2008 season and a preview of the 2009 season.
  
• Magazines/Journals/Periodicals: I'll admit that my experience with baseball as a scholarly enterprise is new, so I have very little experience with journals. I do keep some old periodicals, not just for nostalgia but also if there's a particularly interesting article in it. And I do have a few newspapers from notable days in baseball history, as well.

And with that said, on to the books!


15. Eight Men Out
by Eliot Asinof
This book has earned its status as one of the most celebrated sports books of all time. Asinof does an admirable job of playing the detective and bringing a fascinating group of people from different places into one coherent timeline.

When a Six-Run Inning Isn't the Pitcher's Fault

In Saturday's game versus the Rays, Jon Lester got off to a pretty good start. After giving up a two-run homer to Evan Longoria in the 1st, Lester regained his form and threw three scoreless innings. Until the 5th inning, that is, when everything fell apart. When the bleeding stopped, the Rays had scored six runs and had taken an 8-1 lead. The funny thing is, those six runs weren't really Lester's fault.
How can a pitcher give up six runs and not take most or all of the blame? You have to fault the defense, right? Nope, not their fault either. The Sox didn't commit an error in the inning, and they only made one little mistake that could be called a defensive "miscue". If not the defense, then, who was responsible for those six runs?
Luck.

Manny Ramirez Suspended 50 Games by MLB

Manny Ramirez, the popular but mercurial slugger for the Los Angeles Dodgers, has been suspended 50 games for violating Major League Baseball's Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program.
The suspension was announced Thursday afternoon. A statement from Manny Ramirez claims that he received the substance in question from a physician in Florida. He claims that his use was not recreational, and that he was unaware that the drug was banned.
Early reports indicated that Manny would appeal the suspension, and there were even arrangements made for a hearing to be scheduled in Los Angeles. According to ESPN's Peter Gammons, though, Manny backed off at the last minute and declined to appeal. Ramirez has taken public responsibility for using the substance, saying: "LA is a special place to me and I know everybody is disappointed. So am I. I'm sorry about this whole situation. "
There has been no official word on what the substance was that triggered the suspension. But ESPN writers T.J. Quinn and Mark Fainaru-Wada -- famous for writing the Barry Bonds/BALCO expose Game of Shadows -- are reporting that it was hCG, a women's fertility drug. According to the American Pregnancy Association's website, hCG is produced during pregnancy by cells that form the placenta. WebMD states that hCG levels can be tested to determine pergnancy but may also be affected by tumors.
That sounds innocent enough, but it fails to explain what an otherwise healthy adult male such as Ramirez would need them for. T.J. Quinn, speaking on an ESPNews broadcast, states that despite its uses as a female fertility drug, hCG is used almost exclusively by steroid users. hCG helps renew the body's ability to make testosterone. This is made necessary when steroid users have been doping for a certain period of time, inhibiting their body's ability to produce testosterone naturally. Not only does hCG seem to indicate steroid abuse in the vast majority of cases, but the substance itself is banned under baseball's drug policy, since it does enhance the body's testosterone levels.
Despite an official statement both from Ramirez and the MLB, there is some confusion as to how the substance was detected. It may or may not have come as part of baseball's random drug testing. Quinn reports that the hCG wasn't actually detected at first; his sources report that the only abnormality that registered was elevated levels of testosterone. This led investigators to determine what was responsible for the high levels of testosterone, and the use of hCG was indicated, reportedly, through documents uncovered during the process. It was this lack of a smoking gun, so to speak, that fueled speculation that Ramirez would lodge an appeal. His last-minute decision not to has raised some questions, with some speculating that Ramirez feared further incrimination during the appeals process. By declining an appeal, the matter is settled as far as the MLB is concerned.
This revelation has produced an instant outcry from the sports media. Peter Gammons tells us Ramirez's side of the story (in a manner that makes him sound more like Ramirez's agent than a journalist), whereas Fox Sports contributor Ken Rosenthal has nothing but contempt for Manny, not only for using but for getting caught at a time when a player's bodily fluids are under incredible supervision.
Ramirez's suspension casts a harsh shadow over a Dodgers team whose 21-8 record is the best in baseball. Not only that, but the Dodgers recently set a new record by notching 13 straight wins at home to begin a season. They've won seven straight and sit a comfortable 6.5 games ahead of the second-place Giants. Ramirez was the engine behind the Los Angeles offense, hitting .348 with 6 homers, 20 RBI and an incredible .492 on-base percentage. The bulk of the playing time in left field will likely go to Juan Pierre, a prospect that should send a cold chill up the back of Dodger fans.
There are still many unanswered questions surrounding this story. We'll have to keep looking to learn more and get some confirmation of the early reports coming from ESPN and T.J. Quinn. Either way, though, it looks like "Mannywood" will be out of action for nearly two months.

Shut the f*** up about HGH

"There is no evidence that steroid use has altered home run hitting and those who argue otherwise are profoundly ignorant of the statistics of home runs, the physics of baseball, and of the physiological effects of steroids." -- Professor Arthur DeVany, "Steroids, Home Runs and the Law of Genius"
Quoted on http://steroids-and-baseball.com/actual-effects.shtml
"A review of clinical studies among healthy, normally aging individuals found that hGH supplementation does not significantly increase muscle strength or aerobic exercise capacity." --http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/06/080617160837.htm ( American Medical Association )
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/05_48/b3961105.htm
(http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/03/080320132224.htm), Stanford Medical School
The Garvan Institute of Medical Research in Sydney, Australia(http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/06/080617113743.htm)or
The Mayo Clinic: http://www.mayoclinic.com/health/growth-hormone/HA00030
Slate.com: http://www.slate.com/id/2162473/nav/tap1/
J.C. Bradbury: http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/04/i-dont-worry-about-hgh-in-baseball-and-neither-should-you/
Bradbury's follow-up: http://dberri.wordpress.com/2007/04/24/rumors-experts-and-human-growth-hormone/
Annals of Internal Medicine: http://www.annals.org/cgi/content/full/0000605-200805200-00215v1?maxtoshow=&HITS=10&hits=10&RESULTFORMAT=&fulltext=athletic+performance&searchid=1&FIRSTINDEX=0&resourcetype=HWCIT
&
MSNBC: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23677433/
ABC NEWS: http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/06/04/1941168.htm
First-hand comments: http://forum.bodybuilding.com/showthread.php?t=6916111
Reaction to Newsday article no longer online: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/newsday_doctors_hgh_alone_doesnt_help_athletes/
Where's the on-field proof that they actually work ... : http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/22/opinion/22cole.html?_r=1&ex=1356066000&en=38ae29f2075786cc&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss
... for pitchers?: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/29/AR2006042901195.html
And the New England Freakin' Journal of Medicine (http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/348/9/779).
Pretty much every website that says HGH works is trying to sell it to you.
You better be damn sure about something before you stick a needle in someone's arm.
A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it. --Max Planck
Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof. --John Kenneth Galbraith
Major h/t to Eric Walker

Know When to Move 'Em

This past Saturday, I got a chance to watch my Braves maul the Reds to the tune of a 10-2 loss. I managed to get good seats to the ballgame, right down the left field line. As I sat there baking in the afternoon sun, I got a close look at the Cincinnati ballclub. Unfortunately, getting a close look at Reds baseball is a mixed blessing.
Case in point: third baseman Edwin Encarnacion. Encarnacion is a 26-year-old, good-hitting fellow whose biggest problem is a tendency to throw the ball not quite close enough to the big fellow with a glove standing at first base. Currently in his fifth major league season, Encarnacion has none the less committed 77 errors in his big league career. He’s the only player in the league who gets his defense recorded on a spray chart.
His erratic arm is a serious problem, but I didn’t realize how serious it was until I got a new statistical take on it. John Dewan, with the help of Baseball Info Solutions, has developed a new method of rating defense: the plus-minus ratings. It’s much more accurate than simple fielding percentage, but is still simple enough for even a casual fan to understand. A player’s plus-minus rating is the number of plays the player makes that an average player at that position would not normally make (a positive number is good, zero is average, negative numbers are bad). The newest set of plus-minus ratings were published in The Fielding Bible: Volume II, the sequel to Dewan’s groundbreaking 2006 book The Fielding Bible. Simply put, Encarnacion doesn’t look good.
According to Dewan’s system, Encarnacion was the worst full-time defensive third baseman in baseball in 2008, with a plus-minus rating of -21. The next-worst was Melvin Mora, at -13. Encarnacion is also the worst in the MLB over the last three seasons; his rating of -51 is worse than Garrett Atkins (-42) and ex-third baseman Miguel Cabrera (-40). Dewan’s listings only go back to 2003, and it should be said that Encarnacion isn’t considered the worst defensive third baseman over that period (2003-2008); he’s the second-worst (Ty Wigginton’s -75 is far worse than Encarnacion’s -46).

Sunday MLB Recap: No Need to Panic

There's a scene in King Kong vs. Godzilla where Godzilla appears over the horizon and attacks a train, knocking it to pieces. Of course, as the travellers are mobbing the exits, there's a train conductor standing in the middle of them, yelling, "Please! Don't panic!" I felt like that conductor this week as I watched baseball columnists and Yankee fans wailing and gnashing their teeth at the horrors that befell the team in its opening homestand. You'd never have known that the Yankees, instead of being eaten by Godzilla, went 2-2 against a pretty good team, the Indians. Granted, there's no good way to spin a 22-4 loss, and this could be a sign that the pitching (especially Chien-Ming Wang) isn't as good as we thought. But the new Yankee Stadium is a sturdy piece of architecture; it can withstand worse.
With that in mind, here's a recap of some busy Sunday action with a look at what this means for the coming season.

FAIL @ Men's Journal

I'm amazed that a seemingly respectable magazine would actually print this. This is terrible on every possible judgment of the "terrible" meter. It's the sort of article a drunken moron would piss out after a bad day at Yankee Stadium. There is no fact in this article, not nearly enough to justify the anger. The writer's utter cluelessness and ignorance about the game of baseball and, apparently, life, is enough to make me optimistic about a career in baseball writing. I sure as hell can't do any worse than that, an article for which Matt Taibbi was presumably paid good American currency.

Yeesh.

(h/t Shysterball)

Blast from the Past: 2006

I know that advertisers are finding new ways to horn in on MLB TV. They're not just buying awards, they're trying to sponsor every segment or every pause.
The worst is the WebMD injury report. Now, this doesn't sound that bad at first. It's flagrant ad-placement, yes, but hey, it's nice to explain to a fan just where the ACL is or what the oblique muscle does. It could be useful.
Instead, WebMD used their CGI 3-d rendering of a human body's musculature to illustrate, for the viewers at home: a sore wrist. I'm not f***ing kidding. How inconceviably DUMB do you have to be to need a TV animation to explain to you what a SORE WRIST is?!

"Phyllis, I've got an ouch."

Final 2009 Predictions

American League

NL East
New York Yankees (98-64)
Boston Red Sox* (93-69)
Tampa Bay Rays (87-75)
Toronto Blue Jays (79-83)
Baltimore Orioles (73-89)
* -- denotes Wild Card

NL Central
Cleveland Indians (88-74)
Minnesota Twins (84-78)
Chicago White Sox (79-83)
Detroit Tigers (78-84)
Kansas City Royals (72-90)

NL West
Los Angeles Angels (85-77)
Oakland Athletics (84-78)
Texas Rangers (78-84)
Seattle Mariners (70-92)

ALCS: Yankees over Indians

World Series: Dodgers over Yankees

AL MVP: Mark Teixeira, Yankees

AL Cy Young: Josh Beckett, Red Sox

AL Rookie of the Year: Matt Wieters, Orioles

National League

NL East
New York Mets (95-67)
Philadelphia Phillies* (89-73)
Atlanta Braves (87-75)
Florida Marlins (76-86)
Washington Nationals (65-97)

NL Central
Chicago Cubs (91-71)
St. Louis Cardinals (84-78)
Milwaukee Brewers (80-82)
Cincinnati Reds (78-84)
Houston Astros (67-95)
Pittsburgh Pirates (66-96)

NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers (93-69)
Arizona Diamondbacks (87-75)
San Francisco Giants (78-84)
Colorado Rockies (76-86)
San Diego Padres (62-100)

NLCS: Dodgers over Cubs

World Series: Dodgers over Yankees

NL MVP: David Wright, Mets

NL Cy Young: Johan Santana, Mets

NL Rookie of the Year: Kenshin Kawakami, Braves

NL West Preview: Manny to the Rescue

Prediction
1 – Los Angeles Dodgers
2 – Arizona Diamondbacks
3 – San Francisco Giants
4 – Colorado Rockies
5 – San Diego Padres

Los Angeles Dodgers
Last year's NL West race came down to the final week of the season, with L.A. just edging out the Diamondbacks. This year's race looks about the same, with the Dodgers and 'Backs pacing the division. What really separates the two is L.A.'s great opportunity for improvement; they've got the young talent to take the division by storm.
It starts in the rotation with ace Chad Billingsley. The Dodgers will miss Derek Lowe, but Billingsley should be able to step up and do just as well, if not better. Last year, Billingsley posted a 3.14 ERA and struck out 201 batters in 200.2 innings. The only concern here is the big increase in innings pitched in 2008 (65.1 more than in 2007, including the postseason) as well as his 80 walks allowed. The other young stud in the L.A. stable is Clayton Kershaw. Long-term, Kershaw's ceiling may be higher than Billingsley's, but he's still quite young; he just turned 21. But while he may not top 200 innings, Kershaw looked pretty sharp as a 20-year-old rookie last year, managing a 4.26 ERA with 100 K in 107.2 IP.