2015 Predictions

AL EAST

1. Boston Red Sox (88-74)
2. Toronto Blue Jays* (83-79)
3. Baltimore Orioles (80-82)
4. New York Yankees (78-84)
5. Tampa Bay Rays (76-86)

NL West Preview: Manny to the Rescue

Prediction
1 – Los Angeles Dodgers
2 – Arizona Diamondbacks
3 – San Francisco Giants
4 – Colorado Rockies
5 – San Diego Padres

Los Angeles Dodgers
Last year's NL West race came down to the final week of the season, with L.A. just edging out the Diamondbacks. This year's race looks about the same, with the Dodgers and 'Backs pacing the division. What really separates the two is L.A.'s great opportunity for improvement; they've got the young talent to take the division by storm.
It starts in the rotation with ace Chad Billingsley. The Dodgers will miss Derek Lowe, but Billingsley should be able to step up and do just as well, if not better. Last year, Billingsley posted a 3.14 ERA and struck out 201 batters in 200.2 innings. The only concern here is the big increase in innings pitched in 2008 (65.1 more than in 2007, including the postseason) as well as his 80 walks allowed. The other young stud in the L.A. stable is Clayton Kershaw. Long-term, Kershaw's ceiling may be higher than Billingsley's, but he's still quite young; he just turned 21. But while he may not top 200 innings, Kershaw looked pretty sharp as a 20-year-old rookie last year, managing a 4.26 ERA with 100 K in 107.2 IP.

NL Central Preview: Can the Cubs Three-Peat?

My Prediction:
1 – Chicago Cubs
2 – St. Louis Cardinals
3 – Milwaukee Brewers
4 – Cincinnati Reds
5 – Houston Astros
6 – Pittsburgh Pirates

Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are strong favorites in the NL Central once again. They’ve kept together most of the key players from 2008, while other teams in the division are either taking a step back or just struggling to stay in place.
The team is returning its top four starters in Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly and Rich Harden. It’s a strong group, although there are concerns about Harden’s ability to make 20 starts, let alone 30. The team also took a big step back at closer, losing Kerry Wood to free agency and replacing him with trade acquisition Kevin Gregg. The Cubs have clearly overrated Gregg, due to his status as a Proven Closer. They’ve still got a great safety net in Carlos Marmol, but the Cubs will see a big difference between Gregg and the departed Wood.
Chicago has a unique depth to their offense.

NL East Preview: The Good, the Bad and the Utley

My Prediction:
1 – New York Mets
2 – Philadelphia Phillies
3 – Atlanta Braves
4 – Florida Marlins
5 – Washington Nationals

New York Mets
I'd like to put away any discussion of "choking," first of all, mainly because I don't really believe in it. Choking is a way for fans of other teams to make fun of their rivals, and it's a way for lazy commentators to turn a complex baseball season into a narrative. Yes, the Mets did a terrible job in September, both last year and in 2007. But it was due to normal, everyday baseball reasons. It's possible that there's some personality flaw that plagues the Mets and prevents them from performing well in tight situations, but that's a little far-fetched to me.

AL West Preview: Angels and Demons

My Prediction:
1st: Los Angeles Angels
2nd: Oakland Athletics
3rd: Texas Rangers
4th: Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Angels

The only team that needed Mark Teixeira more than the Yankees was the Angels. With the injuries to Vladimir Guerrero, the Angels just don't have an impact bat anymore – period. They finished 10th in the AL in runs scored last year, and that was with half a season of Teixeira hitting 358/449/632*. Their 100-62 record in 2008 disguised a roster whose Pythagorean record was a disappointing 88-74. Stuck in a division with two of the best farm systems – Oakland and Texas – churning out prospects left and right, there's no room for disappointment.

AL Central Preview: Anybody's Game

Over the past three years, four of the five teams in the AL Central have gone to the postseason. Each year, one team takes a step forward and then stumbles back. Is this the year that somebody finally dominates? Or will it be another photo finish?

My Predictions:
1st: Minnesota Twins
2nd: Cleveland Indians
3rd: Chicago White Sox
4th: Detroit Tigers
5th: Kansas City Royals

Minnesota Twins
The Twins made a valiant effort in 2008, finishing the season tied with the White Sox for the AL Central title. They lost a one-game playoff for the division crown, but none the less they made a great effort.
Still, when you have such a close call, you have to look for those opportunities you missed to improve your team. With the Twins, these were pretty clear. They left Francisco Liriano in the minors far longer than was necessary, with Livan Hernandez wreaking havoc in his place. More importantly, they utterly failed to improve the left half of their infield, even though they've had the same problem for years. If the Twins had been willing to spend just a moderate amount of money to acquire a decent third baseman a few years ago, they may have made it to the World Series, after failing to get there with postseason appearances in 2002, 2003, 2004, and 2006.

2009 AL East Preview

The time had come for a change in Yankee-ville, and the Bronx Bombers were more than ready to seize the day. They started out by signing ace starter CC Sabathia (7 yrs., $161 MM) and strikeout master A.J. Burnett (5 yrs., $82.5 MM). And to bolster their offense, they brought in 28-year-old Mark Teixeira (8 yrs., $180 MM) to play first. The changes gave the Yankees a huge boost and put the spotlight on them as the team to beat in the AL East.
But the story isn't that simple. The Rays are still there, and while they may be destined to take a step back from the 2008 brilliance, that's no guarantee. The Red Sox spent the off-season adding spare parts like Josh Bard, John Smoltz and Ramon Ramirez, but they still feel confident that their core producers can compete with anyone, rich or poor.
It's tough to choose a winner out of three significant contenders. But here's how I see it happening ...

2009 Prediction
1st — New York Yankees
2nd — Boston Red Sox
3rd — Tampa Bay Rays
4th — Toronto Blue Jays
5th — Baltimore Orioles

New York Yankees
Not only have the Yankees added a significant upgrade at three positions (two starters and a first baseman), they also have a lot of room for improvement from within.

2008 Season Predictions

American League

AL East:

Boston Red Sox (98-64) 96-100 win range

New York Yankees (93-69) 91-95 win range

Toronto Blue Jays (83-79) 81-85 win range

Tampa Bay Rays (80-82) 78-82 win range

Baltimore Orioles (66-96) 64-68 win range

AL Central:

Cleveland Indians (96-66) 94-98 win range

Detroit Tigers* (96-66) 94-98 win range

Minnesota Twins (82-80) 80-84 win range

Kansas City Royals (78-84) 76-80 win range

Chicago White Sox (71-91) 69-73 win range

AL West:

Los Angeles Angels (97-65) 95-99 win range

Seattle Mariners (85-78) 83-87 win range

Texas Rangers (76-86) 74-78 win range

Oakland Athletics (72-90) 70-74 win range

ALCS: Indians over Red Sox

World Series: Indians over Mets

AL MVP: David Ortiz, Red Sox

AL CY YOUNG: John Lackey, Angels

AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Evan Longoria, Rays

National League

AL West Preview

Los Angeles Angels
2007 W-L: 94-68
2007 pW-pL: 90-72
Strengths: Pitching staff, Vlad Guerrero
Weaknesses: Overpaid $50 million+ outfield, lack of offensive punch
Biggest Change from '07: Torii Hunter and Jon Garland
One Reason:

One reason the Angels will win in '08 is that no team in the division is within 10 wins of them.

One reason the Angels will lose in '08 is if they change divisions.
Notes:
The $50 million outfield referred to above is Torii Hunter ($16MM), Vladimir Guerrero ($14.5MM), Garret Anderson ($12MM) and Gary Matthews, Jr. ($9MM). Hunter is signed for 4 more years, Matthews for 3 more, and Guerrero and Anderson have 1-year club options for 2009. This pretty pickle means that somebody (Anderson and/or Guerrero) will play DH, sharing time with Juan Rivera (who's making just a little more than $2MM). Here's how these guys did last year, listed with their age in the forthcoming 2008 season:

AL Central Preview

Chicago White Sox
2007 W-L: 72-90
2007 pW-pL: 67-95
Strengths: Star Power
Weaknesses: Age, Contrition, Wrong Division
Biggest Change from '07: Shuffling of some names, but not enough to matter
One Reason:
One reason the White Sox will win in '08 is that there is some upside here. The lineup has some holes, but it's not hard to imagine Jim Thome, Nick Swisher and Paul Konerko putting up good numbers. And maybe Bobby Jenks, Jermaine Dye, A.J. Pierzynski, Orlando Cabrera, and young Carlos Quentin can, too. The rotation is still solid, headed by Mark Buehrle and Javier Vazquez, but it got much thinner with the departure of Jon Garland.
One reason the White Sox will lose in '08 is I'm not very optimistic about most of those names. Thome and Swisher are the only ones that are pretty much a lock for All-Star production, although keeping Thome healthy is an issue. Konerko is still strong, but is on a slippery slope towards becoming offensively average at first. Pierzynski is -- and has been -- average for years, and I wouldn't expect much more than that from Dye, who's getting older (34) and farther removed from a career year in 2006. And I'm not buying Bobby Jenks as the next big thing -- he's as volatile a closer commodity as there is, meaning his ERA is just as apt to be 4.00 as 2.50.
Notes:

AL East Preview

Baltimore Orioles
2007 W-L Record: 69-93
2007 pW-pL Record: 71-91
Strengths: Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, Brian Roberts**-- if they don't trade him
Weaknesses: Pitching, Pitching, Pitching ... and the rest of the offense
Biggest Change from '07: Bye-Bye Bedard
One Reason:
One reason the Orioles will win in '07 is an act of God.

NL West Preview

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

2007 W-L Record: 90-72
2007 pW-pL Record: 79-83
Strengths: Maturing young blue-chippers, Brandon Webb
Weaknesses: Inconsistent offense, tough division
Biggest Change from '07: Dan Haren
One Reason:

NL Central Preview

CHICAGO CUBS
2007 W-L Record: 85-77
2007 pW-pL Record: 87-75
Strengths: Strong Offense, Solid Pitching
Weaknesses: OBP, Depth
Biggest Change from '07: Fukudome and his .400+ OBP

One Reason:
One reason the Cubs will win in '08 is that the best is set low in the NL Central. The Cubs won the division last year, have managed to improve over the offseason (without spending $1 billion), and aren't facing any rivals presenting serious challenges. They're not absolutely safe from Milwaukee or even possibly Cincinnati, but they're easy favorites.
One reason the Cubs will lose in '08 is that a lot of their production is precarious. The best-case scenario for their lineup is good, but if Fukudome struggles in his first U.S. season, or if Aramis Ramirez and/or Alfonso Soriano take a step back to mediocrity, the Cubs will be hard-pressed to replace them. There aren't a lot of backup plans for the lineup, and the same could be said for the rotation, where an inordinate amount of pressure rests on Carlos Zambrano and Ted Lilly. The Cubs do have some backups here in Jon Lieber and Sean Marshall, but neither of them can replace an injured or ineffective Zambrano.

Notes:

I HAVE RETURNED (NL East Preview)

First off, greetings from never-never land. After a much-too-long hiatus, I have returned to the land of Whizdom. My time away from baseball was against my will, as I've had a pile-up of medical problems over the past six weeks, including being diagnosed with diabetes. A lot has changed since then, and I've found it difficult to generate the energy to pursue my former hobbies, among them this website. But I have returned to start my full-scale preview of the 2008 season. I'll blog again soon to cover all the news I missed while I was gone (something about Roger Clemens).


Before I open up my 2008 preview with a close look at the Alanta Braves, two quick notes:

Looking Ahead: Texas Rangers

2006 W-L Record: 80-82
2006 pW-pL Record: 86-76
Runs Scored: 835 (4th in AL)
Runs Allowed: 784 (8th in AL)
Free Agents: Rod Barajas, Mark DeRosa, Adam Eaton, Jerry Hairston, Jr., Carlos Lee, Gary Matthews, Jr., Kip Wells

2007 Projected Lineup:
1B -- Mark Teixeira
2B -- Ian Kinsler
SS -- Michael Young
3B -- Hank Blalock
LF -- Frank Catalanotto/Brad Wilkerson
CF -- Kenny Lofton
RF -- Nelson Cruz
C -- Gerald Laird?
DH -- Jason Botts?

2007 Proj. Rotation:
Kevin Millwood
Vicente Padilla
Brandon McCarthy
Robinson Tejeda
Edinson Volquez/Kameron Loe

2007 Proj. Closer: Eric Gagne

Offense/Defense:
The Ranger offense appears to be in fine shape. The 2006 club wasn't quite as potent as anticipated, but in some ways they compensated. Where Mark Teixeira and Brad Wilkerson slumped, Gary Matthews and Mark DeRosa had unlikely career years. Adam Eaton got injured, but Vicente Padilla stayed healthy. The team traded for Carlos Lee and didn't even have to give up much to get him. That looks like a lot of turnover among their free agents, but the core group of contributors is still there. The Rangers appear to have a potent lineup, and although the outfield could use some juice, they'll probably be just fine.
The Texas infield returns intact from 2006. First baseman Mark Teixeira had a bit of an off year in '06 (282/371/514 is an off year for him), but should make a strong return in 2007. Second baseman Ian Kinsler is what the Rangers expected; a thoroughly capable hitter (286/347/454) and defender (-3 FRAA) who should man the position for the near future.
At shortstop, the Rangers have Michael Young. Young has always hit well for the position, and 2006 was no exception (314/356/459). But in the past, Young was a defensive liability. A former second baseman, Young shifted to shortstop when Alfonso Soriano came to town. That gave the Rangers arguably the worst middle infield in baseball. Young wasn't a bad second baseman, but at shorstop, he was agonizing. He was among the league's worst from 2003-2005, posting an FRAA of -16, -14 and -14 in those years.
But last year, Young's FRAA flipped to a Gold Glove-caliber +20. This was no illusion. Although the change doesn't appear as dramatic, other metrics have Young making a sizable improvement defensively. Win Shares has him improving from 4.3 fielding WS in '05 to 7.7 last year, a whole win unto himself. It's really hard to say what's actually going on here. It's unlikely that Young made a sudden improvement in defense at age 29, and even if he was that good in 2006, it's tough to predict what will happen in 2007. With defense, it's difficult to separate the underlying reality from the system of measurement. Part of this improvement could be due to the subtraction of the woeful Soriano to his left (defense does have an interdependent quality). But if pressed, I'd say that Young is more likely to be a below-average infielder next year. It's hard to imagine that he just suddenly got a lot better, although his case is eerily similar to that of Derek Jeter, who did maintain his defensive improvement.
At third base, the Rangers have the only real disappointment in the entire infield. It's sad, too, because he was supposed to be a rising star. None the less, Hank Blalock's career has hit the skids, and it's hard to see why. With almost no change in playing time, Blalock's power, patience, and batting average have all dropped from the high levels of performance he set in 2003 and 2004. Last year, Blalock hit 266/325/401, below-average for a player in Texas' offensive haven. This was a step down from 2005 (263/318/431), which was a step down from 2004 (276/355/500). Blalock's power has been cut nearly in half; in 2004 he had 73 extra-base hits, but he fell to just 45 last year. It's highly unusual for such an all-around wonder to succeed so well at such a young age (Blalock hit the game-winning homer in the 2003 All-Star Game at age 23) and then suffer a plunge in quality for no apparent reason. It seems like Blalock should bounce back eventually, but it's not looking good. Blalock may, unfortunately, share a page in the history books with contemporary Sean Burroughs as unexpected failures.
The Ranger outfield has been their weakness for years, as they've failed to find good hitters, especially in the outfield corners. And while the 2007 squad isn't that scary, it does have the potential for improvement. Time in left field will likely be shared between Frank Catalanotto and Brad Wilkerson. That would make for a fine platoon if both men weren't lefties. Catalanotto has had good success in Toronto as a platoon player, hitting 300/376/439 last season. But his success was mainly due to a platoon; 91% of his at-bats were against righties, and he hit just 237/348/342 when he did face lefties.
One possible solution would be to combine Catalanotto with Nelson Cruz. The Rangers seem determined to give the 27-year-old Cruz a spot in the starting lineup, but Catalanotto's need for a platoon mate could override that commitment. Plus, the Rangers have the advantage of redundancy in the outfield; even if you combine Cruz/Catalanotto in left, you can put Wilkerson in right and have Jason Botts as your full-time DH. Wilkerson had the worst year of his career struggling through injuries in 2006 (222/306/422), but the 252/358/448 lifetime hitter should be able to bounce back with solid offensive production to g0 with his defensive versatility.
Botts, who will get at least some playing time at DH, is a product of the Texas farm system. He's the classic big ol' sugger, with lots of power and lots of strikeouts. But Botts has already shown good plate discipline and has nothing left to prove in the minors (2006 in Triple-A: 309/398/582). His defense will limit him to DH, but he should hit well enough to hold down the position, even if only part-time.
In center field, the Rangers signed Kenny Lofton to a one-year contract. Lofton isn't going to give you a lot, but he does provide defense and solid offense from the position and is a far better investment than outgoing CF Gary Matthews, Jr. Plus, Lofton's 1-year agreement leaves the Rangers free to pursue one of the big-name center fielders coming on the market in the 2007 offseason (Andruw Jones, anyone?).
Behind the plate, the Rangers will replace the overrated Rod Barajas with Gerald Laird. Laird isn't much of a hitter (although he hit 296/332/473 in '06), but is a good defender and a good placeholder until hot prospect Taylor Teagarden is ready (around 2008-9).

There isn't the star power here that we associate with the Texas offense, and their friendly home park probably makes them look better than they are. But they're well-set with at least adequate production at every position and decent depth as well. If they can get pitching support, they could be considered a dark horse candidate for the postseason.

Pitching:
Of course, we've been saying that for years. The Rangers haven't had a really good pitching staff in over 20 years. In fact, the Rangers are rarely even above-average. In 1983, the Rangers posted an ERA+ of 122, the best in the league. Since then, they've only topped 102 four times in 23 years. The Rangers have only been strongly above-average 4 times since 1983, and they haven't been excellent since (their highest ERA+ since was 111 in 2004). It becomes very dull and repetitive to say that the Rangers need pitching every offseason, but it's still as true as it ever was. The Texas pitching staff was adequate in 2006 (ERA+ of 102), but with a poor defense and a lineup that's merely good, it will take a lot more than that to solve things.
Making matters worse, the Rangers' efforts to solve their pitching problems since '83 have led to catastrophe more often than not. The most notable example is the 5-year contract handed out to Chan Ho Park in 2000, one of the worst free agent deals ever. While the Rangers haven't repeated the Park fiasco since, they've committed a lot of money to pitchers that just aren't worth it.
The Rangers are paying Kevin Millwood Park-esque money; he's entering the second year of a 5-year, $60 million deal. Of course, Millwood is a better (and more proven) pitcher than Park, and what with inflation and all, the deal isn't that bad. But it's a backloaded deal, meaning that Millwood will earn $11 million in 2009 (at age 34) and $12 million in 2010 (if his option vests).
It must be said that the Millwood deal looks a lot better in light of what's happened this past offseason. But for their troubles, the Rangers did not get an ace (as they were hoping); they got an above-average pitcher whose durability is questionable. Millwood's ERA in 2006 was 4.52, although considering his ballpark, he did pitch fairly well (ERA+ of 102). His peripheral stats were basically unchanged from his 2005 season (2.86 ERA, ERA+ of 143). This could mean that Millwood was unlucky in 2006, or that he was lucky in 2005. Probably both.
The Millwood deal won't kill the Rangers, but it should be said that they're counting on him to be something that he's not: a #1 starter. Only with the salary inflation of the past few months does this deal look acceptable.
Much less acceptable is the deal given to Vicente Padilla. The Rangers traded for Padilla before 2006 and saw him put up a 4.50 ERA. He has similar peripherals as Millwood, except that his BB rate is much higher and his K rate is slightly higher. What Padilla doesn't have, however, is any sort of reputation for reliability. I discussed Padilla's deal when it went down, and my reaction is still that he's not reliable enough to pay $11 million a year. It's true that the contract is one of the more reasonable of those given out to free agent pitchers this offseason, but I'm still skeptical. The only extenuating circumstance here is the Rangers' desperation for starting pitchers -- even those who are just decent. And that desperation is the result of their own negligence.
The Rangers have Brandon McCarthy pencilled in as their #3. I'll be discussing the McCarthy deal in more detail later, but in short he's a big boost to their rotation. They may have given up too much to get him, but McCarthy's advantage is that he's already established himself at the big-league level. The trouble here is fly balls; McCarthy gives up a lot of them, and Texas isn't the place for that.
It will be the same bunch of shmoes filling out the back end of the rotation, with the possible exception of young Edinson Volquez. Volquez is one of the Rangers' top pitching prospects (yes, they do have some), and the closest to contributing at the big-league level. He threw 33.1 innings with the big club in 2006, but those are best forgotten (7.29 ERA, 17:15 BB:K ratio). Volquez does have a bright future, but he also has a troubling increase in walk rate to explain. Even at Triple-A last year, he was walking a lot of hitters (72 in 120.2 IP). This set a new career high for him by a mile; his combined 89 walks in 154 IP last year were far more than his previous career high of 41, set in 127.1 IP in 2004. The result could be that he begins that season in Triple-A.
If Volquez doesn't make the rotation, it will likely be the unimpressive if adequate combination of Robinson Tejeda and Kameron Loe filling things out.

In the bullpen, the Rangers made a big splash by signing Eric Gagne to a 1-year contract. This is a big risk, but it's a relatively cheap one and one that could pay off well. It's odd, though, that the Rangers got Gagne when they already had a closer in Akinori Otsuka. Otsuka is a bit old (35 next year), but is reliable and did quite well in his first season in Texas last year (2.11 ERA, 11:47 BB:K ratio). It's not that Gagne isn't a risk worth taking, it's just that it seems to me that the Rangers could have put that money to use elsewhere. And there is the very real possibility that Gagne will get re-injured, or that he just won't pitch nearly as well as he used to.
One benefit of the Gagne signing is that it gives the bullpen more depth, with Otsuka moving to a setup role. The Rangers should be able to fill out a competent group behind them, with returning favorites Ron Mahay and Rick Bauer along with some of their rising young pitching talent.

In the end, though, there's very little chance that the Texas pitching staff will be much better than it was last year. They added some upside with the acquisition of McCarthy and Gagne, as well as the continuing development of their prospects, but the realistic expectation just isn't much more than average to above-average -- the same as always.

Offseason Game Plan:
Now that I've finished my "Looking Ahead" series, the offseason is virtually over. I did not anticipate this, as there are usually a few big names stuck around after the New Year. But for whatever reason, everything happened really fast this year. Barry Zito (Giants) and Jeff Suppan (Brewers) are gone, and now the biggest names left out there are guys like Mark Mulder, Cliff Floyd, and Eddie Guardado.
So there's not much that the Rangers can do. The good thing is that there's not much they should do. The Rangers are basically stuck with what they've got, and unless they can find a good deal for Hank Blalock, this is what they're going to be taking into 2007.
There's a lot of encouragement to be found in the Rangers' Pythagorean W-L record of 86-76 last year. This suggests that the team already was above-average, and just needs to take a small step forward to enter the land of 90 wins, and thus contention. However, I'm pessimistic that the Rangers were really that good in 2006, and I'm also fairly pessimistic about how much they've really improved for 2007. The Rangers should be considered as an outside shot for the postseason -- if everyone hits like they should and the rotation stays healthy, it's not unreasonable to see them winning 90 games -- but it's highly unlikely that the Rangers can pass all of the other AL teams that are hovering around the 90-win mark.
Only four AL teams can make the postseason, and right now I'd say that the Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Indians, White Sox, Twins, Tigers, Angels, and A's are better teams than the Rangers. It's important to remember that; the Rangers are about the 10th-best team in the AL. Even if they shock everyone and pass three or four of the teams on this list, that means that they're going to be watching the postseason on TV once again.
There is hope for Texas; they have young pitching prospects, a core of offensive talent, and the money to buy more offense. But it's a very tall order to expect them to be contenders as soon as next year.

Looking Ahead: Seattle Mariners

2006 W-L Record: 78-84
2006 pW-pL Record: 78-84
Runs Scored: 756 (13th in AL)
Runs Allowed: 792 (9th in AL)
Free Agents: Carl Everett, Gil Meche, Eduardo Perez, Joel Pineiro

2007 Projected Lineup:
1B -- Richie Sexson
2B -- Jose Lopez
SS -- Yuniesky Betancourt
3B -- Adrian Beltre
LF -- Raul Ibanez
CF -- Ichiro Suzuki
RF -- Jose Guillen
C -- Kenji Johjima
DH -- Jose Vidro?

2007 Proj. Rotation:
Felix Hernandez
Miguel Batista
Jarrod Washburn
Horacio Ramirez
Jake Woods?

2007 Proj. Closer: J.J. Putz

Offense/Defense:
Well, it's no secret that the Mariners need some work. They especially need someone to goose their offense or something; even considering their park, they aren't scoring runs and don't look to be scoring many more in the near future. Compound that with a front office who's made a name for itself this offseason by making really bad trades, and I don't think there's any reasonable way to see the M's as contenders in 2007.
It's always tough to recover from a 99-loss season, but it's even tougher when Plan A pretty much turns out to be a failure. The M's tried to aggressively improve their team by paying out big money to Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre. With those two in the lineup, the Mariners managed to score exactly 1 run more in 2005 than they did in '04. The improvement to a 69-93 record was due mainly to the relative improvement in the pitching staff.
But we'll get to that later. The M's are stuck with the Beltre and Sexson contracts, although neither look quite as bad as they did at the time. Seattle made the same mistake many teams are making, in that they were paying a player to match their peak performance on a yearly basis. That just doesn't happen. And while Beltre and Sexson are both good enough, neither one has been enough to lift the Seattle lineup out of the doldrums. This is an object lesson for teams looking to improve a really bad team through one or two big splashy signings.
In between these decent but expensive corner infielders, the M's are playing a punchless pair of glovemen. Yuniesky Betancourt, the shortstop, had the reputation as a good-glove/no-hit type and pretty much lived up to the hype (289/310/403). Even worse, Betancourt's glove wasn't as good as expected. FRAA rates him at an ugly -13 FRAA. Other metrics aren't as negative; his 5.4 fielding Win Shares were 6th in the AL. Either way, it's pretty clear that young Betancourt has to carry a Gold Glove if he wants to keep the starting job.
Jose Lopez has more promise with the bat than Betancourt, although it should be noted that he's never really produced at the major league level (career 265/300/392) and has never been able to bring his bat with him from Tacoma. He's still young yet, so the M's shouldn't be in any hurry to get rid of him.
Unfortunately, his defense may force the issue. Lopez has never been great with the glove, but his -18 FRAA in 2006 made him an utter liability. And unlike Betancourt, this may not be a mirage; Lopez doesn't have Betancourt's pedigree with the glove, and the other defensive metrics seem to support the idea that he's not that good (his 2.8 defensive Win Shares rank 11th among AL second basemen). Lopez is the kind of guy who would be tolerable if you were getting your production elsewhere, but he could get pushed by the middle-infield prospects in the system, especially if the team can't get a good upgrade anywhere else in the infield.
The outfield situation is a lot less depressing, but still troublesome. The only sure thing is Ichiro. Ichiro was most closer to form in 2006, hitting 322/370/416 with such strong defense that he was shifted to center field to replace Jeremy Reed, another disappointing prospect (doesn't that sound familiar?). I'm not really sure how the shift to center will affect Ichiro's defense, but it will make his offense more valuable. And besides, this team has a whole lot to worry about besides Ichiro -- well, except for his impending free agency (after 2007).
We're likely to see Raul Ibanez manning left field, which isn't phenomenal news, but it's good for this team. Ibanez is still productive (289/353/516) and reasonably priced, at that. The M's could use a few more of those.
In right field, the M's took a gamble and acquired Jose Guillen. Guillen has often been compared this offseason to Carl Everett, the team's abortive DH solution from last year. But I'm more optimistic about him than some. He does have the attitude, yes, but he's also younger than he seems (31 next year) and still has the chance to be productive. His 2006 was a loss, yes, but he hit well in cavernous RFK Stadium in 2005 (283/338/479). And even if some of that is lost in translation, the M's are only committing $5.5 million to him, with a mutual option for 2008. So even if Guillen fails, the M's won't be in too much trouble; they can shift Ichiro back and go with Reed in center or promote Jones from the minors.
The other productive/cost-effective player in the lineup is catcher Kenji Johjima. Johjima profiled as an above-average hitter, and that turned out to be accurate (291/332/451). Concerns about his defense were apparently ill-considered. The ascension of catching prospect Jeff Clement could create some conflict here, but having too many catchers is a good problem, and the M's haven't had too many of those lately.
The M's were looking for an upgrade to DH Ben Broussard. But somewhere along the line . . . I don't know, I guess the "up" part was lost in translation, and the Mariners eventually made a strong downgrade by trading away relatively valauble prospects Chris Snelling and Emiliano Fruto for Washington's Jose Vidro.
I spoke about the Vidro trade recently, so you can visit the link to get my reaction. Suffice to say, the Mariners don't need to be paying old guys to clog up a lineup that's already proven to be pretty inadequate.

And that's about it. The Mariners had the second-worst offense in the AL last year, and I can't find any evidence that they're about to improve by any significant amount. They've already got plenty of money committed to Ichiro, Beltre, and Sexson. They've got some productive guys that are relatively cheap, such as Johjima and Ibanez. And they've got some unproductive guys who are relatively cheap (Vidro). Most of their young hitters are either a year or two away from making a big impact or have such a low ceiling that it's not worth getting too excited.
Example: Baseball America recently rated the Top 10 Prospects in the Seattle system. Most of them are pitchers, and most of them are in the low minors.
The only real hopes for 2007 are #1 Adam Jones and #2 Jeff Clement. Both have made it to the major leagues, but both appear as though they need more minor league seasoning. Jones could easily come up if Jose Guillen explodes, but with the acquisition of Kenji Johjima, there's no pressing need for Clement, a catcher.
For a franchise in such desperate straits, you need better production from your farm system, so that there is no pressing need to spend money on free agents. But the M's farm system has fallen on hard times in recent years, with the long line of injured pitching prospects especially ugly. There's not a lot of help coming up from below, and there's not a lot of help available from the free agent market. Unless the Mariners get really lucky in one of those two areas, they're not going to threaten the Angels or Athletics anytime soon.

Pitching:
It would be nice if I could turn around and make glowing comments about the Mariners' pitching staff. After all, neither Oakland nor the Angels are a whole lot better offensively; they may have much better upside, but the A's only outscored Seattle by 15 runs last year; the Angels by only 10.
But while both of those teams have a fine pitching staff to back them up, the Mariners have squat. There is some room for optimism, and it's very possible that they can improve over 2006. But there's just not enough here to compensate for the lineup.
The M's should be able to count on better production from ace Felix Hernandez. We all got a bit ahead of ourselves with the whole "King Felix" coronation and forgot that it's not that easy with a 20-year-old kid. But the good news is that Felix's peripherals were still strong in '06. His 4.52 ERA just doesn't jibe with his 60:176 BB:K ratio and 23 HR allowed in 191 IP. Felix Hernandez circa 2005 is still there, but we're going to have be a bit more patient before engraving his Cooperstown plaque.
The M's did make one move this offseason that should somewhat help the team. They overpaid to get Miguel Batista, but never the less, they're getting a pretty reliable LAIM. His BB:K ratio is troubling, but then it's always been that way. Seattle shouldn't expect a strong #2 in Batista, but if they're just hoping for a solid innings-eater at the back of the rotation, then they've got their man.
The trouble is that there are no good arms to support King Felix. Batista is a slightly overpaid LAIM, and Jarrod Washburn is an even more-overpaid one (2006: 4.67 ERA, 55:103 BB:K). Both men are capable of a surprise year where they pitch like a #2, but that's wishcasting; the more realistic scenario sees them both as supporting actors.
The M's don't have a lot to back these guys up. The most likely candidates are Horacio Ramirez (acquired in another bad trade), Jake Woods, Cha-Seung Baek, and Ryan Feierabend. None of them have much breakout potential, leaving the M's in bad shape if their 1-2-3 starters don't work like clockwork.
It should be noted that the M's have been rumored to be in the Barry Zito hunt. It doesn't seem likely that Zito will land in Seattle, which is probably best for the M's. They don't need to pay any more superstar salaries to non-superstars. If they were right on the cusp of contending, maybe; but they sure as hell aren't.

The bullpen was seriously weakened by the loss of Rafael Soriano (for Horacio f'n Ramirez?!), but the M's do still have J.J. Putz to close. Putz seems a lot younger than he really is. He'll be 30 years old next year despite only pitching three full seasons in the majors. But they were good seasons. His 2006 campaign established him as one of the best closers in the league. Putz managed a 13:104 BB:K ratio and a 2.30 ERA, saving 36 games for the M's. Both the ERA and the K rate are way out of line with his previous major league production. Putz certainly has the stuff of a dominant closer, but we should be suspicious that his 2006 results were such an aberration.
Soriano would have been a great setup man/insurance policy, but apparently the Mariners decided they'd rather have a bad starter with a history of injuries. And now that Soriano's gone, there aren't many sure things in the Seattle 'pen. Young Mark Lowe had a good debut in the majors last season and should have a bigger role in '07. Young Jon Huber seems to have taken well to his conversion to relief, and while he doesn't have a high ceiling, he could be useful. Julio "Mr. Flyball" Mateo will return in '07, as will George Sherrill and Jake Woods (if he's not a starter). This isn't a bad group of guys, but neither is it in any way intimidating.

The addition of Washburn and now Batista to the pitching staff has added a lot of salary without adding a whole lot of upside. Both pitchers would be great guys to supplement a good group of young starters, but they're miscast as #2 guys, and they're especially overpaid for a team with little hope of making the postseason. Add to that the loss of prospects in Mr. Bavasi's December to Dismember trades, and you've got to scrape the bottom of the barrel to find much optimism for this pitching staff, or this franchise, for that matter.

Offseason Game Plan:
Well, since the offseason is mostly over, it's too late for me to tell Bill Bavasi to exercise caution. That bus has left the depot.
I would have encouraged the Mariners to explore trading away players like Sexson or even Washburn if they felt they could get a good return in prospects. Instead the Mariners are getting rid of the few prospects they have to make a completely unrealistic run for the 2007 postseason. This smacks of a desperate man afraid to lose his job. And in fact, I wouldn't expect Bavasi to finish the season as the team GM, unless lightning strikes or they find a faith healer who specializes in pitching arms.

Looking Ahead: Oakland Athletics

2006 W-L Record: 93-69
2006 pW-pL Record: 85-77
Runs Scored: 771 (9th in AL)
Runs Allowed: 727 (3rd in AL)
Free Agents: Jay Payton, Frank Thomas, Barry Zito

2007 Projected Lineup:
1B -- Dan Johnson
2B -- Mark Ellis
SS -- Bobby Crosby
3B -- Eric Chavez
LF -- Nick Swisher
CF -- Mark Kotsay
RF -- Milton Bradley
C -- Jason Kendall
DH -- Mike Piazza

2007 Proj. Rotation:
Rich Harden
Dan Haren
Joe Blanton
Esteban Loaiza
Joe Kennedy?

2007 Proj. Closer: Huston Street

Offense/Defense:
The Oakland defense tied for 2nd in the AL in fielding percentage (.986) but were 6th in DER at .688. This could indicate the declining range of aging guys like Mark Kotsay and Mark Ellis, as well as injuries to key defenders Chavez and Crosby. But even if it's not quite as good as it looks, the Oakland defense is fine; the problem here is the offense.
The A's 9th-place finish in runs scored was the result of a roster stretched to its limits by injuries. Not only did the A's see regression from defensive stalwart Mark Ellis (249/319/385), they had to deal with the increasingly dismal output of guys like Jason Kendall (295/367/342) and Mark Kotsay (275/332/386).
But even with these guys bringing up the rear, the A's were supposed to be contenders with the rest of their lineup. Unfortunately for them, that didn't quite work out the way they'd hoped.
Despite getting good defense from Eric Chavez, the third baseman just isn't hitting like an MVP (241/351/435 in '06; career 271/350/489) and probably never will. When he's healthy, that's fine. But if he struggles with injuries again, as in 2006, the A's don't have the depth to replace his output.
The same can be said of Bobby Crosby. Crosby, a big-time prospect, suffered through yet another injury-plagued season (229/298/338) that was even worse than 2005, when he was also injured. It's easy to stay positive about Crosby since he's still young (just 26 next year) and does have a decent major league season under his belt (a 239/319/426 2004). But Crosby has yet to hit really well in the majors, and since 2004, he hasn't been able to stay in the lineup. Neither of these things bode really well for a guy who was supposed to be a future MVP. The A's need him to be productive to avoid another quick playoff exit.
First baseman Dan Johnson didn't have the high expectations of Crosby, but he was supposed to be a solid-hitting first base option like he was in 2005 (275/355/451). Instead, he was barely adequate (234/323/381) and got shipped to the minors. With prospect Daric Barton stalled (259/389/395 at Triple-A), The A's had no choice but to shift Nick Swisher to first and spend far too much time playing Jay Payton in left (296/325/418). Johnson should bounce back next year, and he's still got that 2005 swing left in him, but this was another step back on a team that couldn't afford any more of them. Combined with the injuries/regression suffered by 2B Mark Ellis, and the Oakland infield was effectively decimated in 2006. In the postseason, instead of a strong Johnson-Ellis-Crosby-Chavez infield, the A's were forced to play Swisher-D'Angelo Jimenez-Marco Scutaro-Chavez, with the punchless Payton in left field. Little wonder then that the Tigers swept them.
Swisher, who split time between left field and first base, was one of the few bright spots for the team. The team of Moneyball fame finished with a merely average .340 OBP, but that was no fault of Swisher's; the 25-year-old paced the team with 97 walks and also swatted 35 homers. He helped fill a big vacuum, and it was lucky for the A's that one of their young hitters was finally coming through.
Fiery trade acquisition Milton Bradley spent most of the time in right field, but the injury bug bit again, limiting him to 96 games. Bradley performed quite well, hitting 276/370/447 with the team, but it was little consolation; it was a case of "another one bites the dust" with Bobby Kielty forced to replace him.
The other Special Ks, Kotsay and Kendall, were unimpressive, as mentioned above. So the team went through most of the season with only Swisher (and sometimes Chavez and Bradley) contributing from the field. The team that looked like it had strong depth was instead held back by numerous injuries and disappointments, and their lack of depth (especially in the middle infield) was what people remembered.
Fortunately for Oakland, they had an insurance policy at DH. Now coming into 2006, no one would have predicted that Frank Thomas -- of all people -- would be the most reliable and productive hitter on the ballclub, and yet that's exactly how things turned out. Thomas only played 137 games, but he made them count; he hit 270/381/545, with a team-leading 39 HR and 114 RBI. He almost single-handedly kept the team afloat and resurrected his chances for Cooperstown, all for a relative pittance.

The A's will get to re-boot and try again next year, with the same cast of characters (sans Thomas) out to prove that they weren't overachieving when they reached the ALCS last year. The A's offense has a lot to prove. They must stay healthy, simply because there is little room for error; with most of the roster injury-prone, new manager Bob Geren will have to play mix-and-match with hopefully better options than Mark Kiger in 2007. A lot of people will have to step it up if the A's want to fight off the Angels and repeat in '07, with the most obvious being Eric Chavez and Bobby Crosby.

Pitching:
The Oakland pitching staff saved the offense last year, and there's every indication that they can do the same thing this year. Injuries struck here, too, as erstwhile ace Rich Harden made only 9 starts the entire season due to injury. Projections are still good for Harden, but his injury history is long enough now that Billy Beane should have visions of Mark Prior dancing in his head.
The good news is that even without Harden, the A's pitching staff survived. Barry Zito led the team in ERA at 3.83, despite a career-high 99 walks and a surprising 27 HR allowed (Oakland played as a pitcher's park in 2006). With Zito headed out as a free agent, the mantle of "backup ace" falls to Danny Haren, who should bear the burden quite well. Haren is, in fact, a better pitcher than Zito in the present and future. Haren will be just 26 next year and is coming off a season where he led the A's staff in innings (223) and strikeouts (176). His HR allowed were troubling (31), leading to a less-than-stellar 4.12 ERA. But Haren is the real deal; a strong #2 who can step in as a temporary ace if Harden falls again.
Behind Harden and Haren, the A's have two perfectly acceptable LAIMs. Esteban Loaiza got off to a woeful start, but -- while he didn't justify his brand-new contract -- he pitched well enough, managing a 4.89 ERA in 26 starts. Injuries may have played a part in Loaiza's struggles, although he doesn't have much potential to go under 4.50 in ERA at age 35.
The LAIM with the better growth potential is Joe Blanton. Blanton came on the scene with a strong rookie seaosn in 2005 (3.53 ERA in 201.1 IP), but his low strikeout rate caught up with him (116 K) and his 2006 ERA fell all the way to 4.82. The real Blanton is likely somewhere in between, and -- at age 25 -- he'll be cheap and productive for a while yet.
If Rich Harden can stay healthy and somewhat replace the departing Barry Zito, there's no reason to think that the 2007 starting rotation will be any worse than the 2006 squad. They've got the guys out there to eat up innings, but they would certainly like a better showing from everyone, at least in terms of runs allowed. They're losing depth along with Zito -- Joe Kennedy will likely step into the #5 spot -- but they may not be losing any quality at all.

The Oakland bullpen took a similar path as the rotation. Despite the troubles facing closer Huston Street, the A's managed to surround him with a fine cast of supporting players and ended up with a solid staff. Street regressed from his unlikely brilliance in 2005 (1.72), seeing his ERA nearly double to 3.31. Street's poise is real and was documented past the point of insanity in 2005. But his stuff is debatable. It's doubtful that he's going to assume the mantle of Mariano Rivera as the game's best closer, as the 2005 hype suggested. But even if he settles in as an above-average guy, he'll be valuable. And there's every reason to indicate that he can do that and more.
Behind Street, the A's have competent setup man Justin Duchscherer (2.91 ERA), Kiko Calero (3.41) and young Chad Gaudin (3.09). The A's wrote the book on the fungibility of closers and setup men, and their current pen is not only cheap, but very cost-effective. Behind those three, the team has long man Kirk Saarloos, Ron Flores, and a couple other options out of the 'pen. If the A's fail to repeat in '07, it will not likely be the fault of the bullpen.

Offseason Game Plan:
The A's have already nabbed Mike Piazza to fill the Thomas void at DH; they just need to hope that he's the 2006 version (332/372/564 on the road) and not an earlier version (251/326/452 overall in '05).
The A's could use a better insurance policy than Kirk Saarloos for the possible Harden injury. But considering the going rate for starting pitching, it's not likely that the team will do anything more than nibble at the free agent periphery. GM Billy Beane has even been involved in rumors trading away a starting pitcher, such as Blanton or Haren.
Really, though, it all comes down to the options. While the team needs better depth, the problem is mostly with the incumbent personnel. There's not a lot you need to change about a lineup that still includes Nick Swisher, Bobby Crosby, Eric Chavez, Milton Bradley and Piazza.
Top priority is keeping everyone healthy.

Looking Ahead: Los Angeles Angels

2006 W-L Record: 89-73
2006 pW-pL Record: 84-78
Runs Scored: 766 (12th in AL)
Runs Allowed: 732 (4th in AL)
Free Agents: Darin Erstad, Adam Kennedy, J.C. Romero

2007 Projected Lineup:
1B -- Kendry Morales/Robb Quinlan
2B -- Howie Kendrick/Brandon Wood
SS -- Orlando Cabrera
3B -- Chone Figgins
LF -- Juan Rivera
CF -- Gary Matthews, Jr.
RF -- Vladimir Guerrero
C -- Mike Napoli
DH -- Garret Anderson

2007 Proj. Rotation:
John Lackey
Jered Weaver
Bartolo Colon/Joe Saunders
Kelvim Escobar
Ervin Santana

2007 Proj. Closer:
Francisco Rodriguez

Offense/Defense:
There's plenty of room for shifting around in that starting lineup, especially with Figgins, the human patch, on the roster. There's about 4 or 5 guys on the roster who can play first, and two or three different third basemen. Rivera could shift to center, but neither he nor ideal DH Anderson are a good long-term solution there. The middle infield is also a bit crowded; along with second baseman Kendrick, you have minor league shortstops Brandon Wood, Erick Aybar, and Sean Rodriguez. None of these prospects have broken into the majors yet, but they could get there soon, which would put resident shortstop Cabrera on the trading block.
But any way you mix them up, this is still not a dominant offensive ballclub. Most of the hope for the lineup lies in the admittedly talented prospects littered across the infield. The Angels have had terrible luck getting things to work so far, but the new wave of middle infielders looks like it can help turn things around.
The Angels have Casey Kotchman, Kendry Morales, Dallas McPherson, and Robb Quinlan as potential corner infielders. Ideally, that's a fine arrangement of prospects that should produce at least two guys who can produce. But it hasn't worked out that well so far.
Kotchman looked like a monster, hitting for big averages with good plate discipline in the minors. It would be expected for him to take a while before handling the big leagues, but his 2005 stint looked like it showed good progress (278/352/484 in 47 games). But injuries limited him to 32 games combined between Triple-A and the majors last year. Kotchman will just be 24 next year, so there's still reason for optimism, but it has to be tempered somewhat with the ugly reality of his big-league career so far.
Morales, who looks like the starting first baseman, is a Cuban defector who's shown good offense in the minors. Morales spent the first half of 2006 at Triple-A, hitting 320/359/520. Granted, Salt Lake City is a hitter's park, and you'd expect a learning curve in the majors. But even taking this into account, Morales' second half has to be disappointing (234/293/371). Morales is also just 24 next year, so there's still some good potential there. And he at least has good health on his side.
With the signing of Gary Matthews, it looks like Chone Figgins will get shifted to third base. Figgins is a useful player who can play a number of different positions, steal some bases, and play good defense. The problem is that he's just not a very good hitter (267/336/376 in '06). The Angels may have some better third basemen on the roster, and they'd be well-advised to look into trading the overrated Figgins.
The Angels entered 2006 hoping that Dallas McPherson would take over the job of everyday third baseman. He was promoted to the majors despite a top-heavy 250/307/596 batting line in Triple-A, and he did indeed struggle in Anaheim (261/298/478 in 40 games). McPherson was promoted aggressively in the Angels system, and it's possible that being jerked around has had an impact on him. He hasn't had a good showing since 2004, where he split time between Double-A (321/404/660) and Triple-A (313/370/680), with an unimpressive MLB debut (225/279/475). McPherson began 2005 at the bottom of the Angels' system, but still managed to get a showing in the bigs, despite a Triple-A stint that's unimpressive in context (278/349/704 in just 14 games).
Add onto that his highly disappointing 2006, and it's getting harder to lo0k on the bright side with McPherson. He'll be 27 next year, and he still hasn't performed well in the majors. There are extenuating circumstances in his case, but he's getting farther removed from his last good season.
Robb Quinlan has filled in at both first and third base. Quinlan also has good potential, but unfortunately, he's hasn't been healthy and productive at the same time in years. 2004 was a relatively good season for Robb; he performed well in Triple-A and then hit well in 56 games in the bigs (344/401/525). But that was only 160 ABs, and the next year he struggled in the bigs (231/273/403 in 54 games). Quinlan made it into 86 games last year and hit 321/344/491, which has to be considered a victory, even if it was just 234 ABs. Quinlan will be 30 next year, and it's doubtful that he'll serve as anything but support for the other guys on this list.
Pressed for a third baseman, the Angels in 2006 turned to Maicer Izturis, who actually hit well (293/365/412). But it's highly unlikely that Izturis can produce like that again (career 265/335/377).
Surely the Angels will get a couple of these guys to hold their own and produce. But it's no sure thing; they thought it would happen last year, but it didn't.
Things are rosier in the middle infield, thanks to the arrival of some highly-regarded prospects. Orlando Cabrera is still clogging up shortstop. He's still a good producer (282/334/404 in '06), but he's about to become very superflous given his salary and the push he'll be getting from the prospects, especially uber-slugger Brandon Wood.
At second base, the Angels brought up Howie Kendrick last year and look to be sticking with him. Kendrick hit well enough in the minors that the club tried him at first base some in '06. But with Adam Kennedy gone, it looks like Kendrick will be taking over second. Kendrick will be 24 next year (what fascination do the Angels have with the Class of '01?) and while he didn't hit too well in the majors (285/314/616), he's got the potential to become one of the better 2Bs in the league (which is a pretty low standard, granted).
In the outfield, the team is surprisingly bereft of prospects. It looks like Juan Rivera and Garret Anderson will fill in the LF/DH spots. Rivera is a useful hitter obtained from the Nats who is quite valuable as an outfield/DH swingman. He's perfectly capable of hitting like an everyday player (310/362/525 in '06), although last year's numbers are likely a bit inflated. As for Anderson, he's degenerated into a pretty useless player, whose defense is limited and whose offense is simply inadequate for LF or DH (280/323/433 in '06).
In center field, the Angels tried the novel solution of signing a free agent. They signed Gary Matthews, Jr. to a 5-year, $50 million contract. His $10 mil. per year is fourth-highest on the team, behind Guerrero, Colon, and Anderson. And it's possible that he'll be the worst value of any player on the team, with the possible exception of Anderson. Matthews is a good fourth outfielder who has somehow managed to convince the Angels that he's an All-Star. At age 31, Matthews went to Texas and hit 313/371/495. Now considering that this is Texas, and that his career batting line is 263/336/419, we could safely say that this was a career year, right? But no; the Angels are going to pay Matthews on the assumption that he can produce 5 seasons of All-Star baseball, as opposed to the one season he's managed so far in his career.
The Angels didn't have a pressing need for a center fielder. They could have shifted Figgins to center and played one of the corner infielders at third. But for some reason, they decided to drop $50 million in one of the worst ways imaginable.
Catching for the Angels will likely by Mike Napoli. Jeff Mathis was supposed to be the #1 catching prospect for the Angels, but Napoli broke through in 2006 and hit 228/360/455 at the big club. It's highly doubtul that Mathis can hit like that, although he has a better defensive reputation. My guess it that Napoli has the job so long as he can hit the ball. And there's a lot worse things in life than having two genuine major-league catchers.

There's a lot of strong potential in this lineup, which is why the Angels are considered to be strong contenders in 2007 and for the near future. But even if the lineup doesn't live up to the hype, the Angels can always fall back on one of the best pitching staffs in baseball.

Pitching:
That starting rotation is scary good. Not only is Lackey a legitimate #1 and Weaver a legitimate #2, but the team has great depth and every opportunity to lead the league in ERA.
As for Lackey, he has broken through to the "ace" position in a short while, but there's every reason to believe he's for real. Lackey took off in 2005 and provided a fine repeat performance in 2006, notching a 3.56 ERA in 217.2 IP with 190 K and just 14 HR allowed. Lackey will be just 28 next year, and should anchor the rotation for the foreseeable future. He's definitely one of the more underrated pitchers in the game.
Behind Lackey is young Jered Weaver, who came upon the scene like a sensation in 2006. If the Angels had been hitting the ball worth a damn, they could have made the playoffs and given Weaver a shot at the Rookie of the Year. Weaver only pitched 123 innings, but managed a 2.56 ERA and a 33:105 BB:K ratio. Weaver was a star in college at Long Beach and showed off strong numbers in the minor leagues. The only real worry is that Weaver enjoyed a BABIP of .239, which was easily the luckiest in the league. You can chart this up to good defense and small sample size, but it could also be a sign that Weaver enjoyed a fair amount of luck last year. Still, even if he does take a step back, he should be a reliable starter, and the Angels have the depth to compensate.
Kelvim Escobar is another underrated pitcher. He has the reputation of a mid-level starter, but is actually a strongly above-average guy with a good strikeout rate. Escobar (who will be just 31 next year) threw 189.1 IP in 2006, with a 50:147 BB:K ratio and a 3.61 ERA. If this guy is your #3 starter, you're in fine shape. It should be noted that the Angels wisely signed Escobar to a contract extension early in the season, and so didn't have to deal with the slaary inflation of the offseason.
The #4 pitcher on the staff will be young Ervin Santana, although he could move up. Santana's name has been involved in a lot of trade rumors lately, but it looks now like the Angels will be keeping him. This is good news. Santana is young (24 next year) and has shown good break-out potential. Even if he stalls and repeats last year's performance (4.28 ERA in 204 IP), he'll still be a big asset.
The #5 spot will likely go to Bartolo Colon, although it's impossible to count on him considering his injuries and conditioning. Colon struggled through injuries last year, making 10 starts and posting a 5.11 ERA. He turns 34 in May, and the Angels would be wise not to count on Colon for very much going forward. His 2005 Cy Young was a minor fluke, and his stamina is such that he's not a good bet to stay healthy as he ages.
The Angels do have a backup in Joe Saunders. Saunders, who will be 26 next year, isn't a big-time prospect, but he held his own in 13 starts last year, managing a 4.71 ERA and a 29:51 BB:K ratio. That's not exactly awe-inspiring, but if your #6 starter is this good, then you're in good shape.
And the Angels' rotation has as much upside as any other in the league. Even if they do experience some speedbumps (regression from Weaver, injuries to Colon), they've got the depth and the personnel to compensate. The rotation is the biggest reason to consider the Angels contenders in the AL West.

The Angel bullpen is anchored by Francisco Rodriguez. I've heard a lot of comments from scouts expressing concern about K-Rod's violent delivery, believing that it could lead to major injury in the future. We have to keep that in the back of our minds, but we also have to consider that the youngster is still one of the elite closers in the game. Last year he posted a 1.73 ERA in 73 innings, striking out 98 and walking 28.
Behind K-Rod, the Angels have Scot Shields, the rubber-armed setup man who's shown good consistency. The Angels may feel that Shields' reputation has grown so that they can shop him around for a trade, but that hasn't happened yet. Behind these two, the Angels have taken a step back from their previous years of dominant bullpens. Stalwart Brendan Donnelly pitched well enough (3.94 ERA in 60 IP) and even Hector Carrasco, as unlikely a hero as there ever was, threw 100.1 innings with a 3.41 ERA.
Although it may not be as fearsome as it was circa-2002, the Angels have a good track record when it comes to assembling bullpens. All the major pieces are already there, so it just comes down to filling in the gaps.

Offseason Game Plan:
The Angels really don't have anything to do. They were rumored to be in on the Manny Ramirez trade, which would certainly be an upgrade over Garret Anderson. They may want to add some stability at the infield corners, but the roster is crowded enough with those guys as it is.
The Halos were rumored to be pursuing Barry Zito, and in recent weeks have come out as strong possibilities. I really don't see the wisdom of signing Zito. The Angels have a very, very strong bullpen, with three very good young pitchers (Lackey, Weaver, Santana), one 30-year-old gem (Escobar) and plenty of hope to fill out the back (Colon, Saunders). There's no need to overspend on a super-expensive free agent that doesn't in any way fill a pressing need. If you'll look back at the runs scored and runs allowed, you'll see that the Angels' #1 problem is offense. Their #1 priority should be improving their offense. Spending $50 million on Gary Matthews isn't going to help your lineup much, and spending $100 million on Barry Zito would be a tremendous waste of resources, as the Angels are one of the few teams in baseball that don't need any more starting pitchers.
Even if the Angels do nothing before Spring Training, they have to be considered a dark horse candidate to upset the A's in the AL West.

Looking Ahead: Minnesota Twins

2006 W-L Record: 96-66
2006 pW-pL Record: 93-69
Runs Scored: 801 (8th in AL)
Runs Allowed: 683 (2nd in AL)
Free Agents: Phil Nevin, Brad Radke, Shannon Stewart, Rondell White

2007 Projected Lineup:
1B -- Justin Morneau
2B -- Luis Castillo
SS -- Jason Bartlett
3B -- Nick Punto
LF -- Lew Ford?
CF -- Torii Hunter
RF -- Michael Cuddyer
C -- Joe Mauer
DH -- Jason Kubel?

2007 Proj. Rotation:
Johan Santana
Boof Bonser
Carlos Silva
Scott Baker?
Matt Garza?

2007 Proj. Closer: Joe Nathan

Offense/Defense:
One of the things that holds the Twins back, in my opinion, is their steadfast old-fashioned view of baseball. There's nothing wrong with being old-fashioned now and then, and I'm a firm believer that scouting and stats can and should work hand in hand. But the Twins, in a quest to honor the spirit of Calvin Griffith, believe in the spirit of small-ball and thrift. GM Terry Ryan takes care of the former, and owner Carl Pohlad more than accounts for the latter.
The Twins' approach does give them a strong defense, but they often end up sacrificing offense, even at traditionally offense-heavy positions. The corner outfield spots are probably the most obvious examples of this. The Twins kept Jacque Jones around long after he had played his best baseball, out of a bizarre combination of loyalty and a misconception of what a left fielder is. They picked up Shannon Stewart and, after an overly-hyped stretch run in 2003, got to see his career fade out in front of them. But Stewart was a real Twin; he was a good defender, stole bases, and hit for a high average. He also probably makes "productive outs" and says "please" and "thank you," too. The Twins could keep their offensive philosophy intact so long as they had somebody else in the lineup to knock those runners home.
It probably won't happen in 2007. In right field, the Twins got a great 2006 out of Michael Cuddyer, who hit 284/362/504, giving the Twins a much-needed boost of offense. But the 27-year-old Cuddyer has never really hit like that before. His career batting line is 268/342/455. That's not bad, but Cuddyer doubled his career high in homers (from 12 to 24) to become a legitimate offensive threat. The Twins need him to retain as much of that as possible to help support the M&M boys (Morneau & Mauer).
In left field, the Twins don't currently have anyone but Lew Ford. Ford is another example of the type of player the Twins don't need any more of; he's a good defender and probably a swell guy, but he's turning 30 next year and can't hit (226/287/312 in '06). The Twins used Jason Tyner some in 2006, but that's a really bad idea; Tyner's nothing but batting average, and is no kind of left fielder. Hopefully, the Twins can see through that, and won't get bogged down in that "piranhas" nonsense.
If I were Terry Ryan, I'd make left field my top, top priority. Of course, that's difficult since the Twins don't sign big-name free agents. But then the upside of that is that they don't have to suffer through Carlos Lee.
In center field, the Twins renewed incumbent Torii Hunter's option for one more year. It's questionable if they'll be able to keep him after 2007. It's obviously in the Twins' best interests to do so, since they don't have anyone to replace him, and the going rate for a center fielder who can hit is far out of their price range.
Luckily for the Twins, Hunter was able to bounce back in 2006, setting a new career high in home runs (31) while hitting 278/336/490. The low OBP is an issue, but welcome to the club. He's not the defensive God that Baseball Tonight makes him look like, but he's a hot hand.
The other offensive spot in need of filling is the DH role. It would be great if prospect Jason Kubel could step forward and claim the role. But Kubel was frustrating in 2006, hitting a woeful 241/279/386 in his 73-game debut. Kubel has the potential to do more than that, but it's questionable whether he can do it at the major league level. The Twins are notoriously fickle with their own hitting prospects; it took them forever to go with Justin Morneau at first, and Kubel's awful 2006 may have set his cause back a year or more.
But there's really no one else in the system who can fill the role. Ryan tried a creative solution in 2006 by bringing in free agent Rondell White on an incentive-based deal. It was a good risk, but didn't work out; White was terrible (246/276/365).
Do not despair, however, because the Twins have finally put their faith in their home-grown first baseman, and he did not disappoint. Granted, he didn't deserve the AL MVP; he wasn't even the most valuable player on his team. But he did "mash," as they say, hitting 321/375/559 and hitting 34 homers. It was the first 30-homer season by a Twin since Kent Hrbek. There's something not to be proud of; it's also perhaps a sign that we're taking our small-ball a little bit too far.
Either way, the Twins are set at first, which is more than can be said for third base. Nick Punto filled the role after the team wisely ditched Tony Batista, and Punto hit well enough (290/352/373). The problem is that even that is better than Punto's hit in the past, and he's not the kind of guy you want to install as a full-time third baseman. He's a fine insurance policy, but you can't really afford to run him out there every day when your lineup already has a few holes in it elsewhere.
Up the middle, the Twins seem set for now. Luis Castillo is the Twins' kind of player; speed, batting average, defense, and steals. Castillo got off to a slow start in '06, but fought back to a 296/358/370 finish. Castillo isn't the centerpiece of a killer offense, but he's a great guy to fill in a gap. The Twins finally killed off the Luis Rivas experiment and traded for Castillo, and should be happy with the results. He should have a couple more seasons like 2006 left in him, and he comes much cheaper ($5 million) than former teammate Juan Pierre, a lesser player.
At shortstop, the Twins have Luis Castillo Lite in Jason Bartlett. Like seemingly everybody else on the club, Bartlett hits for a pretty empty .300 average, but he draws enough walks to make it worthwhile (309/367/393 in '06). He also provides strong defense at shortstop. So Bartlett, like Castillo, is no All-Star, but he's good enough for now while you go looking for a left fielder and third baseman.
But I have saved the best for last. Because behind the plate, the Twins have Joe Mauer. Mauer, who will be 24 next year, is coming off a season where he might have been the most valuable player in the American League. He wasn't a major factor in the voting, but he hit 347/429/507 with excellent defense behind the plate.
It's really hard not to hurl superlatives at Mauer. Catchers who hit this well and field this well at age 24 are very, very rare. I'm talking Hall of Fame rare. And while it's too early to inscribe the plaque, Mauer bears a strong resemblance to a lot of the elite catchers of the past.
There is one difference -- size. Mauer is 6'4" and 220 lbs, which is pretty huge for a catcher. It's not just a cosmetic complaint, because Mauer's size will likely mean a heavier burden placed on his knees. The Twins certainly want to keep Mauer around for as long as possible. But he's such a good defender behind the plate that they don't want to get rid of a good thing. What will probably happen is that they'll watch Mauer's progress and leave him behind the plate unless something bad starts to develop.

With Mauer and Morneau on top, supported by Torii Hunter, Luis Castillo, and a couple others, the Twins have a decent lineup. If they could add an impact bat at just one of the empty positions (with LF being the emptiest), they could afford to keep their glove men where they are and still be contenders. Here's hoping that Terry Ryan sees the value of big-time offense. Because your pitching staff won't always be brilliant . . .

Pitching:
. . . or will it? One thing that you can't take away from the Twins is their knack for getting good pitching. You could quibble with their offense and their misuse of resources, but it's hard to argue with a farm system stacked with the best arms in the minors. The Twins have the best pitcher in baseball in Johan Santana and a fleet of pitching prospects coming along to back him up.
Do they even need hitters?
Johan Santana in short: Good like Tom Seaver; If he keeps it up, Hall of Fame -- First Ballot.
The only worry about the Twins' pitching prospects is that they don't have enough major league experience to count on for 2006. If they had Santana and wunderkind Francisco Liriano, that would be much less of an issue. But the fabulous Liriano (who was nearly as good as Johan in '06) will likely miss all of 2007 with Tommy John surgery. It's the best thing for his career, but it does put the team in a bit of a bind for next season.
One guy who's already pitched well in the majors is Boof Bonser. Bonser came up in 2006 and made 18 starts, posting a 4.22 ERA with a 24:84 BB:K ratio. His minor league numbers suggest that he's likely to improve upon that. Boof came over from the Giants in the same deal that brought Liriano and ace closer Joe Nathan. All the Twins had to give up was grumpy ol' A.J. Pierzynski. Sweet.
Another likely member of the rotation is prospect Scott Baker. Baker, who will be 25 next season, bears a strong resemblance to Brad Radke. He doesn't strike out a lot of batters (although he gets his share), but he compensates with great control (1:4 BB:K ratio in the minors). He is prone to the home run, which was the main thing that troubled him in 2006. Baker made 16 starts with the big club, and while his command was fine, his 17 HR allowed in 83.1 IP help explain his 6.37 ERA. But Baker's much better than that, and he looks good enough to start out 2007 in the rotation.
The only other person with a "lock" on the starting rotation is also the only veteran (other than Johan), Carlos Silva. The Twins re-upped Silva for the 2007 season. They didn't pay him much money, but even then it might be a bad deal. Silva is looking more and more like a lost cause on the mound. Silva has incredible control, allowing very few walks (his 2005 saw him post the best walk rate in nearly 100 years). But he also doesn't strike out many batters at all. That means that he allows a lot of balls in play, and not even the Minnesota defense can help him there. While Silva did fine in 2005, all that contact stung him in '06, as he finished with a 5.94 ERA in 180.1 IP. Silva is still young, but it's doubtful that he'll do much better than he did last year. His very pitching style is such that he allows far too many balls in play to be successful. He would have been a sensation back during the Dead Ball Era, but nowadays those balls are lively, and a lot of them leave the park (38 HR allowed in '06).
It should be noted that the Twins are trying to talk Brad Radke out of retirement. But Radke has suffered so much in recent years (4.32 ERA last year at age 33, with only 1.5 human arms) that it's doubtful he'd have much left in the tank. Certainly, it wouldn't be worth plunking down $8 million+ when he wouldn't pitch much better than the kids. Here's a place where excessive sentimentality can really hurt you (Radke's rag-arm performance in '06 made him a big hero in Minnesota, which would have been great if he'd actually been pitching really well).
With Santana-Bonser-Silva and probably Baker as the team's 1-4 , there are several possibilities for the #5 spot. I'm not exaggerating when I say that the Twins have at least a half-dozen minor league pitchers who could hold their own in the majors. That kind of depth is not only a great boon to your team but a great chance to make some trades.
The most likely candidate for the #5 spot is Matt Garza. Garza started 2006 in A-ball and looked like just another in a long line of promising Twin pitchers in the low minors. But then he caught fire. In 8 starts, he posted a 1.42 ERA and looked ready to move on. He made 10 starts in Double-A (2.51 ERA, 68 K in 57.1 IP) before getting moved on to Triple-A. With the big league rotation full of holes, the Twins put Garza on an express train for the Twin Cities. He threw just 5 starts in Triple-A (1.85 ERA) before he made it to the majors . . . and sucked (5.76 ERA in 9 starts).
Yes, Garza was really, really rushed last year. And if the Twins hadn't had such a strong need at the big-league level, he probably wouldn't have been pushed so hard. But a lot of the speed was justified, as Garza was dominant at A-ball and Double-A. It may be a good idea to let him plant his feet in the minors before he gets a full-time big-league job, but that decision will likely be made in Spring Training.
A few more names to toss out there: J.D. Durbin (2.33 ERA in 16 Triple-A starts last year); Justin Jones, Glen Perkins, and perhaps Adam Harben and Errol Simonitsch. Those are the established starters the Twins have who could fill it at the big-league level. Don't be surprised if you see most of these guys pass through the majors in 2007. In a lot of systems, they'd have a spot in the rotation.

What do you do with disappointing/extraneous starters? Why, you turn them into relievers, of course? It worked swimmingly with Matt Guerrier (3.36 ERA) and could do so in the future for Willie Eyre (5.31 ERA). But either way, the Minnesota bullpen is just fine. I don't quite agree with the long-term extension given to Dennys Reyes, but the Twins like him as a LOOGY (0.89 ERA and 49 K in 50.2 IP), and it's easy to see why. Juan Rincon (age 27, 2.91 ERA in 74.1 IP) and Jesse Crain (24, 3.52 ERA in 76.2 IP) are the cornerstones of the setup corps right now and should be for some time. Look for more relief prospects (Pat Neshek) as well as some young starters (Glen Perkins) start in the bullpen in 2007.
But the ace, of course, is closer Joe Nathan. Nathan has been the Twins' closer for three seasons now; his saves totals are 44, 43, and 36, and he's never thrown less than 68 innings. He's given up 11 HR over the entire three years, and has never allowed more than 23 walks. The best part? His strikeout totals: 89, 94, 95. And his ERAs: 1.62, 2.70, 1.58.
Oh yeah.

With this pitching staff, the Twins would be contenders with their Triple-A offense (which roughly describes their 2005 season). But they would be well-told to take some this excess pitching talent -- which is in very high demand right now -- and turn it into some young offense with some upside. We may be dreaming to see the Twins signing Barry Bonds or trading for Miguel Cabrera. But the Twins have an embarassment of riches in the pitching department. It will mean more than just rounding out a great staff, but hopefully offering some chance to trade for offense.

Offseason Game Plan:
As I've mentioned often, the Twins really need one or even two impact bats. The free agent market is basically bereft of them, not that the Twins could or would pay market price. So that leaves a creative trade. If the Twins want to take a step forward with teams like Cleveland, Detroit, and Chicago, then they must improve their offense by more than just a run or two.
Other than that, the Twins just need to keep their young pitchers healthy and cross their fingers for Liriano's rehab.

Looking Ahead: Kansas City Royals

• The Cubs signed Jason Marquis to a 3-year deal worth reportedly $21 million. On the face of it, that's not bad. With Gil Meche getting 5/55 and Adam Eaton getting 3/24, Marquis is one of the cheapest free agent starters signed this offseason.
  That all sounds great. The problem is that there's a reason that Marquis came so cheap. All of Marquis' vital signs have been heading steadily southward for the past two years. And his work before that wasn't inspiring, either.
  Marquis started off as a big prospect in the Braves' organization who soon became famous for not getting along with Leo Mazzone. Talk about a really terrible way to make a name for yourself. Marquis' numbers would seem to confirm the idea that he wasn't listening to Leo. Marquis pitched parts of four seasons in Atlanta, and only once did he keep his ERA below 5.00. He never logged more than 22 starts or 130 innings, mainly because he was usually the team's 5th starter and didn't pitch well enough to move up in the world. Even in his one good season, 2001, Marquis' 3.48 ERA was belied by a 59:98 BB:K ratio in 129.1 IP. As time went on, Marquis' walk rate stayed high and his strikeout rate started to fall. The Braves wisely shipped him off to St. Louis in the J.D. Drew trade.
  Marquis experienced a semi-renaissance in St. Louis, at least in ERA terms. Perhaps because of the Cardinals' better defense, or simply due to luck, Marquis finished 2004 with a respectable 3.71 ERA. He also finally managed to stick in the rotation; he threw 201.1 IP in 32 starts. He finished the season with a Game 4 loss in the World Series, but it still seemed as though he had come a long way.
  Not so fast. Marquis' BB:K ratio in 2003 was 70:138, or little better than it was before. He also allowed 26 HR, a lot for Busch Stadium. In looks like, in retrospect, Marquis' ERA was better than it should have been given what he was doing on the mound.
  Over the past two years, all of his numbers have degenerated. He went from a still-decent ERA of 4.13 in 2005 to a 6.02 mark last year. His home runs increased to 29 in '05 and 35 in '06 (making him the league leader in home runs allowed and earned runs allowed). His BB:K ratio got worse; in 2005, he lost 38 strikeouts despite pitching more innings (69:100 in 207 IP) and in 2006 it was just as poor (75:96 in 194.1 IP).
  Let me get this straight -- you've got a guy who gives up a lot of walks and a lot of homers, and yet is one of the worst strikeout pitchers in the league? A guy whose peripherals (BB, K, HR) have all headed sharply downward in recent years? Yes, he's just 28 years old, but he's also already managed to alienate two of the best pitching coaches in baseball, Mazzone and the Cards' Dave Duncan.
  And you're going out of your way to sign this fellow?
  If Marquis can bounce back to his 2004-5 form (4.00-ish ERA), then he will be worth $7 million. But that's very doubtful. His peripheral stats don't suggest someone likely to rebound; they suggest someone likely to stay just as bad as he is. Which doesn't even take Wrigley Field into account; if Marquis gave up 35 jacks in Busch Stadium last year, how will he do in the Friendly Confines? How will his high number of baserunners and fly balls survive over on the North Side?
  Marquis is a terrible fit for the Cubs. There are several arms out there with a better short- and long-term future. Miguel Batista may be older, but he's at least effective. The Cubs could have put together a couple "B" prospects and gotten Rodrigo Lopez from the Orioles. Lopez is similar to Marquis, except he has stronger peripherals and has pitched against much tougher competition. He's also much cheaper.
  There are only two real consolations to this deal: 1) Marquis is at least durable. Even if his ERA is around 5.00 (which is most likely), he can still eat up innings. Not that that will really help the ballclub, or be worth $7 million annually. And 2) he's relatively cheap. At least the Cubs didn't go all in with Gil Meche for $55 million. But even Meche has a better upside than Marquis, who has every sign of a pitcher headed south -- not just for the winter, but for good.
  The Cubs' are the consensus "winners" of the offseason so far, judging by the comments I've heard from columnists and commentators. This just goes to show that everyone still thinks that the best thing a GM can do is be active. Whether all of that action really helps the team is irrelevant.
  I've even heard talk that the Cubs are the favorites in the NL Central. Pshaw. The Cubs lost 96 frickin' games last year. They'd have to improve by at least 18-20 wins to win the division. That's a lot of wins, folks.
  Let's make a quick comparison to see how much better the 2007 Cubs look than their predecessors.
  Center Field: '06: Juan Pierre (5.2 WARP3); '07: Alfonso Soriano (10.2 WARP3)
  (Soriano's WARP3 is his 2006 number)
  Looks like 5 wins right there, correct? But Soriano's 2006 numbers were as a left fielder. Given his (perceived) trouble in shifting to center field, we can likely revise that number slightly downward.
  2006 was also a career year for Soriano. His WARP 3 in the two previous seasons were 5.7 and 5.0. So it's more likely that the Cubs will be gaining at most one or two wins with Soriano in center field. And that's not even taking age-related decline into account.
  EST. WINS ADDED: 1.5 (let's be generous)
  Second Base: '06: Todd Walker (2.3 WARP3); '07: Mark DeRosa (5.7 WARP3)
  Looks like a gain of about 3.5 wins here, right? In fact, since Walker shared the position with the terrible Ronny Cedeno (1.7 WARP3), it could be as much as 4 wins added!
  But again, not so fast. DeRosa's 2006 was a giant career year (yet another signed to a big contract by Hendry). It was, in fact very far outside of his expected performance. DeRosa's WARP3 in the 3 years prior to last year were: 1.2, 0.1, 2.0.
  So even assuming that DeRosa doesn't lose any offensive or defensive value as he ages next year, he's only a marginal improvement over the Walker/Cedeno team. But let's be optimistic and assume that DeRosa keeps some of his unlikely offense from 2006.
  EST. WINS ADDED: 0.5 (generous again)
  Starting Pitcher: '06: Greg Maddux (3.4 WARP3); '07: Ted Lilly (5.6 WARP3)
  Two wins added here, right? In fact, it's probably a little more than that, since Maddux was traded to Los Angeles for the last two months of the season, and his spot was taken over by awful pitchers. So even assuming that Lilly takes a step back from his strong 2006 performance, the Cubs should get 2 wins here.
  EST. WINS ADDED: 2
  Starting Pitcher: '06: Sean Marshall (1.7 WARP3); '07: Jason Marquis (1.4 WARP3)
  It looks like the Cubs are just breaking even here. This gives us even more insight into the Marquis deal; the Cubs already had some marginal starting pitchers who were just as productive as Marquis without having to go out and spend $21 million. Even if we assume that Marquis takes a step forward (not likely), there's no reason to expect that he'd do much better than the fleet of marginal pitchers the Cubs trotted out there last year. And those guys at least had the advantage of being younger, cheaper, and with better upside.
  EST. WINS ADDED: 0, for $21 million
  GRAND TOTAL OF WINS ADDED THIS OFFSEASON: 4
  Jim Hendry has spent nearly $200 million to add about 4 wins to his team (and 4 is the optimistic answer).
  That is not a victory.
  Granted, there are some other areas where the Cubs can improve besides free agency next season (a healthy Derrek Lee, for one). But to me, they're still about a 70-75 win team, and that won't win even the NL Central. To statheads and mainstreamers alike: jump the hell off the Cubs bandwagon and put your thinking caps back on.
• The Tigers signed Brandon Inge to a 4-year, $24 million contract extension. Inge was scheduled to be a free agent after 2007, I believe, so this was their effort to lock him up long-term.
  I don't mind the money so much; $6 million isn't bad at all for a solid third baseman. But I'm not sure why they'd extend it to four years. Inge will be 29 next year, so the deal will lock him up through his age 33 season. There's not much reason to extend it that far; Inge is a career 241/302/398 hitter, and once he starts to decline, he'll be a big liability. I know that the Tigers don't have any third base prospects breathing down his neck. But I still question the wisdom of locking up a marginal player for four years, well past the point where he's due to decline.

That's all the big news. Things should be pretty quiet over the holidays, at least in terms of free agent deals. The Red Sox and Matsuzaka are still rumored to be a couple miles apart in negotiations. I've read some interesting views on this, especially from Peter Gammons and Nate Silver. But this will make for some interesting headlines in the weeks to come.

And now for the slightly less dreadful but still pretty much hopeless Kansas City Royals.

2006 W-L Record: 62-100
2006 pW-pL Record: 63-99
Runs Scored: 757 (12th in AL)
Runs Allowed: 971 (14th in AL -- dead last by a mile)
Free Agents: Doug Mientkiewicz, Mark Redman

2007 Projected Lineup:
1B -- Ryan Shealy
2B -- Mark Grudzielanek
SS -- Angel Berroa
3B -- Mark Teahen/Alex Gordon
LF -- David DeJesus
CF -- Joey Gathright
RF -- Emil Brown/Reggie Sanders
C -- John Buck/Jason LaRue
DH -- Mike Sweeney/Billy Butler

2007 Proj. Rotation:
Gil Meche
Scott Elarton
Zach Greinke?
Luke Hudson
Odalis Perez/Brian Bannister/??

2007 Proj. Closer: Octavio Dotel

Offense/Defense:
The defense may still be wretched, but there are encouraging signs that the Royals' offense is getting better. This is due to some shrewd trading (Teahen, Shealy) as well as some (gasp) farm products such as uber-prospect Alex Gordon and professional hitter Billy Butler. The Royals also have more outfield prospects than you can shake a stick at, which certainly means that guys like Emil Brown, Reggie Sanders, and even the venerable Mike Sweeney could be traded to make room for them. The Royals right now are dealing with the clash of "old, bad team" and "young, good team," at least in their lineup. It creates a lot of gridlock, but there are worse problems you could have than having too many big-league hitters.
With Sweeney stuck at DH (and the possibilities of a team taking his contract next to nil), the Royals will have to fit all of their prospects onto the diamond. Ryan Shealy will be at first base. He was purloined from Colorado in the deal that sent disappointing pitchers Jeremy Affeldt and Denny Bautista over. There was no place for Shealy in Denver with Todd Helton around, but he's got a spot with his name on it in KC. The Rockies' system is hitter-friendly, but even then, Shealy's numbers look good, with his career minor league stats at 319/408/591. He started out 2006 in Colorado Springs (284/351/568) and spent 5 games with the big club before getting trade to KC. He hit well enough there, a 280/338/451 clip. Shealy is old for a prospect (27 next year), but that's mainly due to being blocked by Helton. He projects as a quality hitter and will be cheap for several years now. The Royals may want to look into trading him, though, if the outfield gets too crowded and no one wants to take Reggie Sanders.
At third base, the incumbent (for now) is Mark Teahen. Teahen became famous in the Moneyball draft and unfortunately had to live up to that as he ascended to the majors. Teahen's first season in the majors was a disappointment (246/309/376), and he got off to a slow start in 2006 before he went on an absolute tear. He finished the season at 290/357/517 and was one of the league's best third basemen despite ending the season early due to injury. Teahen will be just 25 next year, and most of the signs are that his breakout was for real.
In a way, though, Teahen's success complicates things, because the Royals' #1 prospect is also a third baseman. Actually, you could argue that Alex Gordon is the majors' best prospect. He's the only #1 overall pick the Royals have ever had, and statheads and scouts alike salivate over him. Gordon starred with the University of Nebraska before signing with the Royals. The soon-to-be 23-year-old has only spent one season in the minors: 2006 with Double-A Wichita, where he was dominant (325/427/588). The Royals believe that he's ready for the majors right now, and it's hard to argue with that.
The only question is where the Royals will play him. Teahen has good defense at third, and with his productive 2006, it's hard to move him. Gordon is also strong defensively, but his superior bat may get him moved to right field. Either way, it's good news, as Gordon projects not only as a star but as a possible MVP. The only trouble is that it complicates the outfield picture.
But we'll get to that in a minute. The middle infield, as compared to the corners, looks pretty dismal. There was even some talk (perhaps idle) of moving the athletic Teahen to shortstop, but I doubt that would ever happen. It wouldn't be a bad idea, though, since the Royals' incumbent shortstop is Angel Berroa.
If you took a poll among statheads to elect the worst player in baseball, Berroa would likely win. Yes, there are worse guys playing as part-timers. But none as bad as Berroa play everyday, nor were they given long-term contracts based on one good year.
Berroa won the 2003 Rookie of the Year Award (which should have gone to Hideki Matsui), and then got a 4-year, $11 million contract from KC. Unfortunately, Berroa's 2003 was an aberration, and he's been thoroughly awful ever since. The Royals owe him $8 million over the next two years, and no team in baseball would take a player so worthless. If the Royals can afford to pay Gil Meche $55 million, then they can afford to eat that $8 million and release Berroa. Because no one else can combine poor conditioning, poor work ethic, and poor defense with such awful hitting (234/259/333 last year).
At second base, the incumbent is Mark Grudzielanek. Grudz did a good job with the Royals last year (297/331/409 with solid defense). So good, in fact, that the team didn't just exercise his 2007 option -- they signed the 36-year-old to a new contract with a 2008 option. That's a bit overeager for a middle-aged second baseman.
But Grudzielanek was pushed last year by Esteban German. German doesn't have Grudz's reliable glove, but he did bring a good batting average and superb on-base skills to the job in 2006, hitting 326/422/459. That may be a bit over his head, but his minor league numbers support his OBP. He's cheap and will be just 28 next year. I'm hoping that the Royals will use German primarily (he'd be a fine leadoff man) at second, with Grudz as his defensive backup. But since they've given him a new contract, I fear the offensively inferior Grudzielanek will get the lion's share of playing time.
Behind the plate, the Royals supplemented disappointing rookie John Buck (career 242/292/400 in 3 seasons) with disappointing veteran Jason LaRue (194/317/346 in '06). The Royals may be tired of waiting for Buck to develop; he was supposed to be a major-league ready catcher, but he turns 27 next year, and we may have already seen his best. LaRue is a free agent after next season, but came cheap from Cincinnati, obtained for a PTBNL, with Cincy even picking up a chunk of his salary. LaRue is normally a good source of power with a penchant for leaning into one now and then (93 career HBP) to give him a decent OBP. He struggled mightily in '06, but he's a good pickup and should give the team a bit of a boost from behind the dish.
As far as the outfield goes, let's start with the incumbents. David DeJesus was stretched as a center fielder and was eventually moved over to left last year when the team got Joey Gathright. DeJesus has very little power, but he hits for a decent average and draws some walks (career 292/362/434 hitter). He's not a bad solution in left field, but may soon be pushed out of the role by the likes of Billy Butler. DeJesus may be one of the more desirable trade chips the Royals have; he's still arbitration-eligible, can play center field in a pinch, and has a strong offensive game.
The trouble is that the Royals' true center fielder, Joey Gathright, just isn't much of a hitter. He hit a woeful 262/332/328 with the team after being traded from Tampa Bay. His speed had made him a very overrated prospect in the Tampa Bay system, and it was the Royals who took the gamble on bringing him in. His minor league stats show strong plate discipline and good contact hitting. But his defense in center just isn't that good. If he can't handle the position defensively, then there's really no point in using someone like Gathright as more than a fourth outfielder. If his defense doesn't improve, he may not keep the job; and that's even if his offense does come around.
In right field, you've got free agent Reggie Sanders and Emil Brown. Sanders was another in a long line of useless free agents signed by the Allard Baird regime. He didn't sign for much money, but it was for a two-year deal, and the Royals were never really lacking for corner outfielders. Sanders looked like he was ready to decline when he left St. Louis, and did he ever: 246/304/425 in only 88 games due to injury. The 39-year-old isn't going to get any better, and the Royals would love to trade him if anyone will take him. I doubt it. They'd probably be better off releasing him and freeing up the roster spot.
(This may be off the subject, but do you know those people who are embarassed of their middle name? Add Sanders to the list: his full name is Reginald Laverne Sanders. And Laverne & Shirley was on right when he was a kid. Ouch.)
Emil Brown is, like David DeJesus, a talented player who still isn't quite good enough to fit into your long-term plans. He's defensively limited, so he's not going to take over center anytime soon. But like DeJesus, he has a strong offensive game; he hit 287/358/457 last year. He has a little more power than DeJesus (15 HR in '06) but not as much plate discipline (95 strikeouts). He's another one of those guys who's great to have when you're losing, but is also ripe for an upgrade. His name will likely be mentioned in trade rumors, as the Royals can't play all of these guys.
The player most likely to elbow his way into the outfield scene is Billy Butler. Butler is a defensive loss; he'd be better served as a DH, which makes it more likely that Mike Sweeney will be leaving somehow. He started as a third baseman, but wasn't even in the same hemisphere as Teahen and Gordon, defensively. Since then, he's been an outfielder/DH, but Baseball Prospectus 2006 quotes one scout as saying that Butler was the worst defensive outfielder he'd ever seen. So right now, he's a player without a position.
But his big bat will likely force the issue, meaning that somebody's going to get benched or traded. At the wee age of 20, Butler spent 2006 in Double-A Wichita and hit 331/388/499 with 15 HR and 33 doubles. He hits for a high average, has great power potential, and has much better plate discipline than you'd expect for such a slugger (41:67 BB:K ratio in '06). The fact that he hasn't reached Triple-A yet, combined with the lack of a spot for him on the big league roster, may mean that Butler starts 2007 in the minors. But it won't be long before he swats his way into the big-league lineup, and he's the kind of corner outfield stud that GMs can salivate over. And he'll just be 21!!
There are some other outfield prospects making some noise in the minors (Shane Costa, Chris Lubanski, Mitch Maier) as well as another 1B/DH type, Justin Huber. Having this much hitting talent isn't just good news for the Royals, whose offense should vastly improve in the next couple years; it also means that there are a lot of useful spare parts around to potentially make a trade for pitching. This should be one of the organization's top priorities. Hitters like Gordon and Butler will be ready soon. Unfortunately, the Royals' pitching staff looks abysmal in the short term, long term, and any other term, for that matter.

Pitching:
I've already ranted about the signing of Gil Meche. But, as marginal a pitcher as he is, he's also probably the best starting pitcher the Royals have, making him their de facto ace. That's a dubious compliment for Meche, just as it was for Mark Redman last year.
Behind Meche is . . . well, another nice Meche. They've still got free agent hurler Scott Elarton. But the Elarton signing was similar to the Meche signing (minus about $30 mil.); the Royals couldn't afford to sign good free agent pitchers, so they signed bad ones. Elarton was coming off a 2005 with Cleveland where he posted a 4.61 ERA -- and that was a career year! Coming to Kansas City, Elarton was just a hair better than replacement level, making 20 starts and posting a 5.34 ERA with a 52:49 BB:K ratio -- yes, he actually walked more batters than he struck out, which is a bad pitcher's badge of honor. The 31-year-old will be back again in 2007. Uggh.
The status of Zach Greinke, who was supposed to be the Royals' ace of the future, is still uncertain. Greinke broke through with an excellent debut in 2004, but then struggled mightily through a dreadful sophomore campaign in 2005. In the midst of the 2006 season, Greinke left the team to deal with "personal issues." He never came back. The team has refused to comment on the nature of these "issues," but they've gone on record as supporting Greinke and hoping that he will return.
We can all speculate as to what these "issues" are, but unless we know for sure, we can't guess when he will be back, or at what level of effectiveness. Greinke still has the potential to be a very effective starter, so the Royals are holding out hope. But until he does return, hope is all that any of us can do.
Those are the three "stars" of the Royal rotation (which is pretty hideous). Behind them, the Royals will be scraping the bottom of the barrel for anyone or anything that can keep an ERA under 5.00. The likely fourth starter will be Luke Hudson, the former prospect who turns 30 next year. He's in Kansas City now after the Reds gave up on him (!). He threw 102 innings last year with a 5.02 ERA, which is at least good enough for thr #4 spot in this rotation.
Brian Bannister, obtained from the Mets, is a possible #5. The Royals also have Odalis Perez, obtained from the Dodgers in a trade. The Dodgers may be picking up a chunk of his big salary, but still, you'd rather watch a pitcher spontaneously combust on someone else's nickel.
The Royals may not be done picking up starters on the free agent market. But with the Meche contract in mind, let's hope that they are.

The Royal bullpen was equally culpable in the 2006 team's near-1000 runs allowed (the next-worst team allowed 899, 72 runs less than KC). The woeful defense also deserves mention (12th in the league in defensive efficiency). But the bullpen certainly wasn't doing anybody any favors.
One of the culprits was woeful closer Ambiorix Burgos. But, despite the fact that he still has good potential, Burgos is gone, replaced by free agent Octavio Dotel.
Dotel didn't cost much and is a good choice for a low-payroll team looking for some stability in the closer's role. Dotel hasn't had a lot of success closing, but has been one of the top strikeout pitchers in all of baseball for several years now, posting good ERAs along the way.
The troubling aspect of the Dotel deal is health. Dotel is supposed to be recovered from the health problems that limited him to 10 IP last year, but that's a questionable issue for any 33-year-old. He also had problems in 2005, where he only pitched 15.1 IP. So Dotel hasn't pitched a full season since 2004, the last time he was tried as a closer (in Oakland). Despite his strikeouts (72 K in 50.2 IP), he pretty much bombed (4.09 ERA).
But I'm guessing that the Royals knew the risks with Dotel. And even if he does post a 4.00 ERA, he's still a strikeout machine. And it's not like the Royals will give him as many save chances as Oakland did. You could do worse.
Behind Dotel is a very, very questionable bunch. Andy Sisco was, like every other Royals pitcher, rushed through the minors under the Allard Baird regime. He was still supposed to be a future star, but after struggling in 2005, Sisco's 2006 in Kansas City was even worse: a 7.10 ERA in 58.1 IP (4o walks allowed). One thing we can all agree upon is that when your ERA starts looking like an airplane, you're in trouble.
Jimmy Gobble, having failed in the starting rotation, moved into the Royals' bullpen as the long-relief man last year. He posted a 5.14 ERA, but also ate up 84 innings and struck out 80. He's no star, but he's necessary on this team, especially if the starters end up being a bunch of 5-inning men again.
The reliever who had the most success with KC last year was Joel Peralta. Peralta was a minor league veteran in the Angels' system when he finally got the call to the majors in 2005 (3.89 ERA). His time in Kansas City was less successful (4.40 ERA), but his peripherals are encouraging enough (17:57 BB:K ratio despite 10 HR allowed) that he should do about as well again in 2007.
By the way -- One of the "bad" kind of surprises: it was recently discovered that Peralta is four years older than he originally claimed. This sort of "mistake" is common among Latin American prospects, anxious to improve their chances of getting signed. So Peralta went from 26 to 30 overnight (he'll be 31 next year).
Former Cub Todd Wellemeyer posted the best ERA in the bullpen, a 3.63 mark. But in his 57 innings of work, he managed a dead even BB:K ratio of 37:37; not a good recipe for future success.
And behind these guys, the Royals have the same band of cast-offs as usual. There will be plenty of chances for an outsider to win a job during Spring Training.
The Royal bullpen of 2007 should be somewhat better than that of 2006, if for no other reason than because it can't get a whole lot worse.

Offseason Game Plan:
You've done enough damage already; keep that wallet in your pants.
Shop around your spare outfielders to see what kind of pitching you can get. It may be a longshot, but it's at least worth the effort.
Small Market 101: get as many possibilities as you can invited to Spring Training. Avoid signing major league deals when a minor league deal will suffice.
In short: get pitching. If at all possible.