Hall of Fame Player = Hall of Fame Manager?

Since Lou Piniella’s retirement, it’s become clear that former Cub Ryne Sandberg is the favorite for his replacement.  This isn’t coming from the team so much as from fans and commentators.  In fact, the impression I’ve gotten from the relevant commentary is that it would be a huge blunder to offer the job to anyone but Sandberg.

The rationale behind Sandberg’s candidacy is that a Hall of Fame player is supremely qualified to be a major league manager.  At the risk of overusing my favorite word, I must call this rationale pure hogwash.

Soriano a Disappointment?

In this article, Dan McGrath reflects on the Cubs' disappointment in the performance of Alfonso Soriano.  This is certainly understandable -- Soriano's career hitting stats before joining the Cubs were 280/325/510.  Since joining the Cubs, he's hit 277/329/512.

Wait -- what?

N.L. Central Offseason – Team by Team

Chicago Cubs

Dec. 31:  Cubs sign Marlon Byrd to a three-year contract worth $15 MM.

The thinking here is that Byrd can be their starting center fielder.

Let’s take a look at Marlon Byrd’s recent history first:

YEAR	PA	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG
2007	454	10	307	355	459
2008	462	10	298	380	462
2009	599	20	283	329	479

Not bad for a center fielder.  But Byrd was playing for Texas those seasons – in hitter-friendly Ameriquest Field (or whatever the hell it’s called now).
Here’s what My Darlin’ Marlon did on the road those years:

YEAR	PA	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG
2007	230	6	259	304	410
2008	224	3	297	362	411
2009	292	6	285	322	419

I believe the word I’m looking for is … erp!  (Byrd is a career 272/322/393 hitter on the road.  Double erp!)

NL Central Preview: Can the Cubs Three-Peat?

My Prediction:
1 – Chicago Cubs
2 – St. Louis Cardinals
3 – Milwaukee Brewers
4 – Cincinnati Reds
5 – Houston Astros
6 – Pittsburgh Pirates

Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are strong favorites in the NL Central once again. They’ve kept together most of the key players from 2008, while other teams in the division are either taking a step back or just struggling to stay in place.
The team is returning its top four starters in Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly and Rich Harden. It’s a strong group, although there are concerns about Harden’s ability to make 20 starts, let alone 30. The team also took a big step back at closer, losing Kerry Wood to free agency and replacing him with trade acquisition Kevin Gregg. The Cubs have clearly overrated Gregg, due to his status as a Proven Closer. They’ve still got a great safety net in Carlos Marmol, but the Cubs will see a big difference between Gregg and the departed Wood.
Chicago has a unique depth to their offense.

Slow News Day

It’s been a slow period for baseball news. Here’s hoping that things pick up soon.

• Mark Teixeira signed a blockbuster free agent deal with the New York Yankees, at 8 years and $180 million. Teixeira fills a BIG hole in the Yankee lineup, as they’ve needed an impact productive first baseman for some time now. Teixeira’s great bat and great glove are both important additions to a Yankee lineup that needed an infusion of both offense and defense. The move also has the effect of forcing Nick Swisher to the outfield. Considering that he’ll be taking playing time away from Melky Cabrera and/or Xavier Nady, this is a good thing for New York.
  Signing the deal has gotten the Yankees a lot of heat for so thoroughly outspending the other 29 major league teams. My response is this: a) it’s asinine to get mad at a team for making themselves better, and b) if you’re mad that the Yankees have so much money, blame Michael Blomberg and the city of New York for saving them a bunch of money on their new stadium.
  
  

2008 NL Central in Review

Chicago Cubs

W-L: 97-64 (1st in NL Central)

pW-pL: 98-63
Payroll: $118,345,833 (3rd in NL)

R/G: 5.31 (1st in NL)

ERA: 3.87 (T-2nd in NL)

DER: .703 (1st in NL)

Team MVPs: Ryan Dempster, Aramis Ramirez, Geovany Soto

A Drag on the Payroll: Kosuke Fukudome (257/359/379, $6 MM), Jason Marquis (4.53 ERA in 167 IP, $6.4 MM), Bobby Howry (5.35 ERA in 70.2 IP, $4 MM)

What Went Right:

Is it a rumor? Or just the landlord?

I stole that pun from Abbott & Costello. So even if I'm stealing my jokes, at least I'm stealing them from the right people.
But there's a lot of talk circulating now around baseball, especially in the wake of the Rich Harden trade (which I'll get to in a minute). The interesting thing is which teams are buying and which are selling, and why some of them may have it backward. What's also interesting is some of the names being thrown around as targeted acquisitions, the most surprising name being . . . Barry Bonds?

• First, the Harden deal. The A's traded Harden and reliever Chad Gaudin to the Cubs in exchange for pitcher Sean Gallagher, outfielder Matt Murton, outfielder/second baseman Eric Patterson, and minor league catcher Josh Donaldson.
  

NL Central Preview

CHICAGO CUBS
2007 W-L Record: 85-77
2007 pW-pL Record: 87-75
Strengths: Strong Offense, Solid Pitching
Weaknesses: OBP, Depth
Biggest Change from '07: Fukudome and his .400+ OBP

One Reason:
One reason the Cubs will win in '08 is that the best is set low in the NL Central. The Cubs won the division last year, have managed to improve over the offseason (without spending $1 billion), and aren't facing any rivals presenting serious challenges. They're not absolutely safe from Milwaukee or even possibly Cincinnati, but they're easy favorites.
One reason the Cubs will lose in '08 is that a lot of their production is precarious. The best-case scenario for their lineup is good, but if Fukudome struggles in his first U.S. season, or if Aramis Ramirez and/or Alfonso Soriano take a step back to mediocrity, the Cubs will be hard-pressed to replace them. There aren't a lot of backup plans for the lineup, and the same could be said for the rotation, where an inordinate amount of pressure rests on Carlos Zambrano and Ted Lilly. The Cubs do have some backups here in Jon Lieber and Sean Marshall, but neither of them can replace an injured or ineffective Zambrano.

Notes:

I had a steak once that was non-tendered ...

• The Cubs re-signed Kerry Wood to a one-year contract for $4.2 million. Rumor has it that Wood turned down multi-year offers from other teams to take the Cubs' offer. I see this as a good move for Chicago. Upon this announcement, the word was that the Cubs would move erstwhile closer Ryan Dempster back into the rotation and make Wood their closer. I'd lean more toward Carlos Marmol as closer, but then the Cubs could do what they did last year and have Marmol pitch a lot of high-leverage innings in the 7th and 8th and leave Wood the plum job of closer. That way, even if Wood does get injured, it won't affect Marmol's ability to handle the tough stuff.
  The Cubs also won the bidding for Japanese outfielder Kosuke Fukudome. Fukudome's contract is for 4 years and $48 mil. -- about Hideki Matsui money. That seems pretty reasonable to me in today's market -- according to Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA system, Fukudome should manage to hit about 300/400/500 with the Cubs. Essentially, he's Bobby Abreu. The most important thing is that high OBP; Fukudome takes a lot of pitches and works the count for walks, which makes him especially valuable to the Cubs, who don't have anybody else (except maybe Derrek Lee) who does that. I agree that with the Fukudome signing, the Cubs now look like the favorites in the NL Central.
• Blockbuster trade #1: the Twins sent Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, and Eduardo Morlan to the Rays for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, and Jason Pridie. It's not often that two big prospects get swapped for each other; especially when one (Garza) is a pitcher and another (Young) is a hitter.
  

The Hot Stove (I hate that term)

The offseason has begun in earnest. Let's start with the deals that have been signed, and then we'll talk about those that have just been loosely agreed upon, and those that are just "in the works."

• The Phillies signed middle reliever J.C. Romero to a three-year contract extension for $12 million. The money doesn't bother me that much, although the Phils should really be looking at Romero's track record. The problem is a 3-year deal. Considering the fact that most relievers are essentially replaceable, and considering the fact that this knowledge is not a secret among baseball boardrooms, why are marginal relievers getting multi-year deals -- especially for more than two years? I can maybe understand extending an excellent reliever beyond his expiration date, but why would you do so with someone who is less than excellent? I guess some things people just never learn.

State of the Baseball Union: NL Central

Milwaukee Brewers (62-57)
My Prediction: 83-79, 2nd place

At Current Pace: 84-78

The Brewers have experienced their fair share of ups and downs so far this season. They got off to a great start and then slowed down, allowing the Cubs to catch up with them. They've really stumbled as of late, but fortunately for them so have the Cubs (who've lost 7 of 10). The Brewers now possess a 1.5 game lead in the NL Central, and it's become a real neck-and-neck race with Chicago.

So what chance do the Brewers have of making their first postseason in 25 years? I'll give them the edge over the Cubs, but it's such a small edge that it may prove irrelevant over the 7 weeks left in the season.

Offensively, the Brewers have scored 568 runs, tops in the Central and 5th in the NL. I think they can keep up this pace; they've got good depth offensively and have several players due to bounce back from a slow first half. They'll be getting full-time play from Rookie of the Year-to-be Ryan Braun (348/392/666), as well as Corey Hart (276/340/505) and J.J. Hardy (274/326/468). They should also get better production from Rickie Weeks, who struggled mightily in the first half (209/336/358). And then, of course, there's Prince Fielder (289/383/614), who isn't going anywhere.

I'd be more concerned with the pitching staff. The team's 4.42 ERA is 9th in the league, and is notably worse than the Cubs (4.01). The Cubs are also working with a stronger defense (.710 DER to the Brewers' .687, which ranks 13th in the NL).

Milwaukee's bullpen is actually doing fine. Francisco Cordero is still doing fine as closer, and the Brewers have gotten good work out of Derrick Turnbow, Brian Shouse, Matt Wise, and trade acquisition Scott Linebrink. Each of those five has an ERA above the league average.

No, the Brewer's big problem is their rotation. They've gotten great work from ace Ben Sheets, but injuries have again limited his performance to just 119.1 IP. He's on the DL now, but should be coming off soon. The sooner the better, because the Brewers' best starter after him has been young Yovani Gallardo (4.20 ERA in 8 starts). Gallardo, the team's top prospect, has been a godsend even though he's not been as dominant as hoped. Because after Sheets and Gallardo, here are the pitchers who have started the most games for Milwaukee:

Jeff Suppan: 25 starts, 4.90 ERA, 54:80 BB:K ratio in 150.2 IP

Dave Bush: 22 starts, 5.07 ERA, 136.2 IP, 33:102 BB:K ratio but 19 HR allowed

Claudio Vargas: 21 starts, 4.87 ERA, 118.1 IP

Chris Capuano: 21 starts, 4.96 ERA, 114.1 IP, 46:99 BB:K ratio



Without Sheets, the Brewers are in serious trouble, even if their offense is good. The best-case scenario is that Sheets comes back and pitches well, Gallardo improves, and Capuano starts pitching m0re like his previous self (4.33 career ERA). If they can do that, then they can survive the low-end garbage pitching of Suppan and Vargas at the back of the rotation.

It's a tough call to make, but I'm going to go out on a limb and pick the Brewers to hold on and win the Central. They've got their share of problems, yes, but then so do the Cubs . . .



Chicago Cubs (60-58)
My Prediction: 78-84

At Current Pace: 82-80

The Cubs, after a first half that saw everything go wrong, are starting to turn things around and play to their potential. It's really surprising how many things are going right for the Cubs. Although, as you can see from my prediction, I was pessimistic about their chances to begin with.

But really, who could have predicted such strong work from all these people:



Mark DeRosa: 288/363/418

Mike Fontenot: (297/347/443)

Ted Lilly: 3.51 ERA, 41:124 BB:K ratio, 151.1 IP

Rich Hill: 3.85 ER, 140.1 IP, 48 BB:K ratio

Carlos Marmol: 1.83 ERA, 22:61 BB:K ratio in 44.1 IP

Jason Marquis: 4.18 ERA, 140 IP (although Marquis' numbers are really a great start followed by a few months of pitching like ... well, himself.)

The Cubs have also gotten strong production from several different relievers (Angel Guzman, Michael Wuertz, etc.), which is one of the biggest improvements in this year's squad, to my mind. Give Lou Pineilla credit for getting creative with job descriptions in the bullpen. He's taken the talent available to him and done a fine job deploying it, with the success of Marmol the best example.

If only the offense were nearly as successful. You'll notice that the only real surprises on the offensive side of the ledger were Mark DeRosa -- who's played more outfield than infield -- and Mike Fontenot, who isn't really that good. Sure, the Cubs have gotten the usual great work from Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez, but here's a short list of their offensive disappointments:

Alfonso Soriano: 297/336/511 (no, that's not bad, but it's very disappointing considering his salary and the expectation that he would hit like an MVP at Wrigley)
Ryan Theriot (286/348/367): Theriot's a great guy to have on your roster and is a good emergency fill-in at second, but there's no reason for him to come to bat more than 400 times (416 PAs and counting)
Cliff Floyd (290/366/382): Say goodbye to power. The Cubs entered the season with too many corner outfielders on the roster; why then did they end up moving their second baseman (DeRosa) to right field? It's because Floyd and Jacque Jones (see below) couldn't keep their jobs.
Jacque Jones (265/326/375): This guy shouldn't even be on the club anymore. He should have been traded in the offseason while he still had some value. As it is, he's just dead weight on the roster.
Matt Murton (263/335/391): The good news (relatively speaking) is that Murton is much better than this. And he's also much cheaper than Jones and Floyd.

Cesar Izturis (246/298/304): Thank God the club finally left the Dusty Baker era once and for all. Izturis is horrible, and he's now right where he belongs: Pittsburgh.

The Cubs' inactivity at the trade deadline may seriously come back to haunt them. They've got plenty of players on the roster, yes, and many of them are expensive. But that's doesn't mean that they actually have someone to play catcher or shortstop, and they're still short two outfielders.
As much as things have gone right for the Cubs' pitching staff so far, their lineup has been pretty disappointing. The best plan now would probably be to release Jacque, move Soriano to left, and install Felix Pie in center. Pie hasn't hit well so far this year, but he's not much worse than Floyd and Jones and is at least much cheaper and a good defender. It would also be a good move for the future to get him more at bats at the big-league level.

As for catcher, the best thing would have been to keep Michael Barrett, but I can understand that there were some personality issues there (how extreme they were depends on whom you ask). Without Barrett, they should have just promoted Geovany Soto. He's not great, but he's not bad either (Koyie Hill is bad) and he's cheap. Instead the Cubs made a trade -- premeditated, I assume -- to get one of the worst players in baseball, who also comes with a pretty big salary. Jason Kendall has hit well for the Cubs so far, but don't count on that lasting very long.

If the Cubs do lose the NL Central to the Brewers, it will mainly be their own fault. They've done a very poor job of maximizing production from their lineup, although to be fair, a lot of that is due to the large amount of inefficient dollars being spent on otherwise useless players.

If the Cubs do win the NL Central, it won't be because of Alfonso Soriano, Mark DeRosa, Jason Marquis or even Ted Lilly. It will be thanks to Lou Pineilla (for removing the shackles of ignorance from the pitching staff's deployment) and the guys who were here to begin with: Lee, Ramirez, Hill, Marmol, and others. If you could find a measure for dollars spent compared to positive effect on the team, this year's Cubs would have to rank as one of the worst ever. The team has improved, yes, but not nearly in proportion to the money spent, and most of the improvement came not from the new players acquired but from a better understanding of the talent they already had.

So even if the Cubs do win the division, it may not exactly be something to be proud of. Because they'll be winning it in spite of the hundreds of millions of dollars they spent this offseason.

St. Louis Cardinals (56-60)
My Prediction: 86-76

On Current Pace: 78-84

The Cardinals are fooling themselves if they think they're going to get back into contention this year. They're slowly working their way back to .500 -- and bully for them -- but I can't see them making it past the Cubs and Brewers. The Cardinals just aren't that good.
Their offense is especially weak. The glory years of Pujols/Rolen/Edmonds are over, and the Cards need to get to work about replacing the latter 2/3 of that troika. Rolen and Edmonds are still falling far sheet of even their career averages. And considering their respective salaries, this is very bad for the organization.
After Pujols and Chris Duncan (276/371/522), the Cards haven't gotten consistently good production from anyone. They've gotten some promising work from some part-timers, and this might lead some to believe that the Cards just need to put it all together to succeed. But I'm very dubious.
Assuming that Pujols (1B), Rolen (3B), Duncan (LF) and Edmonds (CF) are in the lineup, who's filling in elsewhere? In the outfield, the Cardinals have gotten decent work from Juan Encarnacion (290/330/440), but even that modest production is above what we'd expect from him. There's also been some promising work done by Brendan Ryan, Ryan Ludwick, Skip Schumaker and, most recently, Rick Ankiel. But what the Cardinals have here is a small group of very good bench players but no one to step up with significant offense, the kind of offense that's needed for a batting order with so many holes.
In the middle infield, the Cards have deployed David Eckstein and Adam Kennedy. Eckstein has been fair, as usual (295/342/358), but Kennedy has been the worst player on the team this year, hitting 219/282/290 in 306 plate appearances! If they'd replaced Kennedy with a halfway decent guy, they'd already be above .500.
And catching is Yadier Molina, whose defense is so good that it almost makes up for his dreadful offense (268/337/318).
The Cardinals' batting order isn't getting any better. I know Cardinals fans are optimists, and there's a lot to get excited about with the promotion of Rick Ankiel to the majors. They rank 11th in the NL in runs scored, and are a lot closer to last than they are to first.

Throughout this whole entry, I haven't even mentioned the St. Louis pitching. That's because they rank 14th in the NL in ERA, behind only Houston and Cincinnati (who hit in more hitter-friendly parks). And they'd be even worse than that if it weren't for the fact that their mediocre bullpen somewhat makes up for their catastrophic starting rotation.
Sorry, but the Cards aren't going anywhere this year, and in any other division, they wouldn't be going anywhere next year either.

Houston Astros (54-65)
My Prediction: 75-87
On Current Pace: 74-88
Carlos Lee is a good hitter, and he's done a wonderful job so far this year (302/356/536). But if there's ever been a free agent signing more irrelevant to a team's postseason chances, I can't think of one. The Astros are a team barren, barren of talent. They're very top-heavy, with legitimate stars like Lance Berkman, Roy Oswalt, Hunter Pence, and Lee, but no mid-level players to fill in the gaps. Instead, it's a long drop from the stars to the rest of the roster, which is 5th-place material, easily. By the time the Astros are able to rebuild their roster into something of a contender, Lee will be much older and no longer justifying his salary. That's the real waste of his contract; the fact that it's money that won't mean a damn thing to the team's long-term interests and would have been better off invested in draft picks and scouting.
As it is, the Astros are lucky to have Berkman, Pence, and Lee backed up with unlikely slugger Luke Scott (255/355/507) and Mike Lamb (296/375/478). That means they only have four gaping holes in the lineup (well, five, now that Pence is on the DL).
In the middle infield, the Astros have defensive expert Adam Everett at shortstop, but he's also the team's worst hitter (228/275/316), and that's saying something. At second base, the Astros will be lucky to rid themselves of Craig Biggio (248/285/396); the future Hall-of-Famer is no longer justifying a spot in the lineup, which was evident last year, but oh well. His replacement-in-waiting, Chris Burke, hasn't fared any better (224/304/360).
The Astros still have Brad Ausmus behind the plate, and we can only hope that they've finally run out of sentimental reasons to keep this millstone (233/313/319) around their necks.
Next to Lee and Pence, the Astros need someone else in the outfield. They haven't much luck so far, as they've given over 250 at bats to the dreadful duo of Orlando Palmeiro and Jason Lane.

The sad part isn't how bad the Houston lineup is, it's how predictably bad it was going into the season. Not to mention the fact that it should be worse; Lamb and Scott aren't usually this good.

On the pitching side of the equation, things are equally depressing. Only the Reds and Marlins have allowed more runs and, just like with the offense, this eventuality was not only thoroughly predictable, it's going to be their reality for the near future. Top pitching prospects Jason Hirsh and Taylor Buchholz were traded to the Rockies for Jason Jennings, who's been so awful (6.15 ERA in 16 starts) that the Astros couldn't even trade him away.
Roy Oswalt has been one of the NL's best pitchers (3.32 ERA in 172.2 IP), as advertised. But here's the rest of their rotation:

Jason Jennings: 6.15 ERA, see above
Woody Williams: 5.09 ERA, 41:78 BB:K ratio
Wandy Rodriguez: 4.34 ERA in 139 IP; 41:120 BB:K ratio
Matt Albers: 6.20 ERA in 9 starts

Neither Jennings nor Albers are really this bad, but that's small consolation. Williams is indeed this bad, and league-average pitching is the best you're going to get out of Wandy.
In the bullpen, the story is the continuing yo-yo act by Brad Lidge. Lidge sports a 3.26 ERA, with a 20:66 BB:K ratio in 49.2 IP. Considering their future prospects, it's insane that the Astros haven't traded Lidge by now, especially given the fact that every contending team is always looking for bullpen help. The 'Stros did trade Dan Wheeler, but they didn't get prospects in return; they got a mediocre 29-year-old corner infielder (Ty Wigginton).

The Astros aren't going to be doing much winning this year or next. They do have some hope in prospects such as Pence, but they've let so many positions on the field go to pot that they're now left facing a complete overhaul if they want to compete. It's doubtful that the team will trade big-money guys like Lee or Oswalt (at least not yet), so we're probably left with a couple more years of the team acting like contenders even though we all know they aren't. That's a depressing prospect, especially for a franchise that's been one of the league's best for over ten years now.

Cincinnati Reds: (51-67)
My Prediction: 78-84
On Current Pace: 70-92
The Reds are doing worse than even I predicted. Wow.
Some local sources are still in denial; the Cincinnati weekly Citybeat actually ran a cover story claiming (once again) that all the Reds needed were some relievers. I should point out that Citybeat ran a baseball story with the same gist four years ago, and I wrote back saying that they were deluding themselves (my response was published). It would seem that time had proven me right, but learning from past mistakes isn't high on the list of requirements for sportswriters.
The Reds rank 7th in the NL in runs scored right now, with 553. Considering their ballpark, that's a travesty, and it demolishes the Citybeat argument. The Reds' best hitters have been Ken Griffey, Jr., Adam Dunn, and Scott Hatteberg, all of whom will be gone sooner rather than later. Fotunately, the Reds do have some A-level hitting prospects, such as Jay Bruce and Joey Votto, but unless they can hold onto Dunn or find some way to replace these guys, it will all just come out even.
The rest of the Reds' order is full of qualified successes. Brandon Phillips has done well (271/317/460), but he's not the All-Star many Cincinnati fans see him as. His unlikely career after failing in Cleveland's farm system is inspiring, just not quite historic. He's done a good job on defense, but he's not the sort of player you can build a franchise around, especially not with that OBP.
Josh Hamilton has been a great success (278/369/541), and there's really not much I can say about him except that he's still probably too good to be true. That's not to say that he won't stick around as a very useful player, but we can't assume that the first 241 plate appearances of his pro career are going to be a representative sample.
Ryan Freel is a heck of a utility player and has become an institution in the Queen City, but I hate to burst your bubble, he's not good enough to start everyday. He can be a great help filling the super-utility role, but he'll be 32 next year and hasn't learned to stop running into walls. As a result, he's played in just 75 games this year and hit an awful 245/308/347.
Edwin Encarnacion has had a terrible year (261/336/371). I've predicted big things for Edwin (well, big as in he'll be a quality everyday player), and it may just be a rationalization, but I wonder if the Reds' total ambivalence toward Edwin and the silly minor league stints aren't hurting him. This is a lot like what happened to Austin Kearns, where the Reds were far too focused on a player's faults and just wouldn't let them do what they do best. And for Edwin, that's (usually) hitting. He's also the only guy on the current lineup who can reliably be expected to be around the next time Cincinnati contends.
The Reds need offense; they especially need offense that they can rely on for the foreseeable future. Combining Bruce and Votto with (hopefully) Encarnacion and Dunn would be a good start, but considering the upper management, I really don't think the Reds are able to accurately determine their problems and issues.

The Reds have one of the worst pitching staffs in all of baseball; their team ERA of 4.83 is the worst in the NL, and their DER of .677 ranks them 15th in the league in defense (just ahead of Florida).
That ain't good.
The Reds do have a good 1-2-3 starting rotation projected for the near future in Bailey-Harang-Arroyo. The problem this year is that Bailey wasnt quite ready for the majors after all, and Bronson Arroyo fell off a cliff. Arroyo isn't as good as he was last year, when he was one of the best in the league, but I think he's a solid #3, and let's hope (for the Reds' sake) that he is. After that, the Reds need help. Matt Belisle's move to the rotation has worked out about as well as you'd expect (5.40 ERA in 23 starts), and while Bobby Livingston has done well so far, he's not apt to keep it up. But still, in the scheme of things, having three good starting pitchers for the foreseeable future is a victory for the Reds. And let's not forget Aaron Harang, who is indeed better than people think.
The Reds' bullpen has been a big problem, yes, and luckily this year Wayne Krivsky didn't try to solve it by driving a dump truck out to the Relief Pitchers' Landfill and loading up. The Reds have shown patience with their in-house pitchers and, while things have gone horribly, they haven't yet panicked and made things worked like I expected them to. I wouldn't be averse to seeing them sign a mid-level innings eater to a free agent deal, but they need to avoid the Baltimore Solution of buying out every free agent reliever. And considering this administration's track record with relief pitchers and impatience, that may be exactly what they do. And can you blame them? It would be Citybeat off their backs.

The Reds have some good pieces to put together a contender and may actually be in better shape, long-term, than Houston or even St. Louis. But that requires that the front office uses what talent they have well and does a good job of targeting areas for improvement.

Which likely means that Krivsky & Co. will screw it all up again and get fired. Let's just hope (as Reds fans) that those rumors about Walt Jocketty are true . . .

Pittsburgh Pirates (49-68)
My Prediction: 69-93
On Current Pace: 68-94
I pledged in these entries to discuss major league baseball teams. I've already discussed the 5 major league teams in the NL Central, so I don't see any need to discuss the Pirates.

Have a nice day.

2007 NL Central Predictions

• I thought I should tell you that Blogger is now offering a "widget" to anyone who upgrades to Blogger Beta. I've e-mailed the company, and hopefully that will be the end of this indecency.

To recap:

NL CENTRAL:
St. Louis Cardinals (86-76) 84-88 win range
Milwaukee Brewers (83-79) 81-85 win range
Chicago Cubs (78-84) 76-80 win range
Cincinnati Reds (78-84) 76-80 win range
Houston Astros (75-87) 73-77 win range
Pittsburgh Pirates (69-93) 67-71 win range

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
2006 W-L Record: 83-78 (1st)
2006 pW-pL Record: 82-79
2007 Projection: 86-76
Strengths: Core contributors still best in league; good management team
Weaknesses: Injuries; back of rotation, corner outfield, middle infield
Biggest Change from 2006: Nothing really; Jeff Suppan's loss isn't that big
One Reason:
One reason the Cardinals will win in '07 is that they've got arguably the best hitter (Albert Pujols) and the best pitcher (Chris Carpenter) in the league. They've also got Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds, hopefully still in one piece. Add in two promising young starters (Anthony Reyes and Adam Wainwright), and you've got hope in a winnable division. Okay, that's not one reason, but it's one series of reasons.
One reason the Cardinals will lose in '07 is that their depth has disappeared. Beyond their superstars (who are all injury risks), there's a steep dropoff to the next level of players: capable, unspectacular sorts like David Eckstein and Adam Kennedy. The same is true of the rotation, where the Cards really need Reyes and Wainwright to contribute to fill out the five spots. I would say that a lack of depth means the Cards won't be winning the World Series, but I won't make that mistake again. Let's just say that it really won't happen two years in a row.
Notes:
The Cards have, in my opinion, the best team and the best-run organization in the NL Central. They won the division (and -- gulp -- the World Series) last year despite some dreadful shortcomings. While the Cards haven't gotten a lot better, neither has anyone else in the division. I think the Cards can expect some improvement over last year, and while it's possible that the Brewers can get it together in time to catch them, I wouldn't bet on it.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS
2006 W-L Record: 75-87 (4th)
2006 pW-pL Record: 71-91
2007 Projection: 83-79
Strengths: Good, young offense; Depth across the diamond
Weaknesses: Pitching in general; Ben Sheets' health
Biggest Change from '06: If the Brewers are lucky, a healthy Ben Sheets. If not . . . well, maybe the ushers will start wearing different vests.
One Reason:
One Reason the Brewers will win in '07 is they've already got the talent to do it. I have no doubt that the Brewers are capable of winning the NL Central (getting there is, of course, a different story). But the Brewers have a strong offense, and while their pitching staff is a bit patchy, it will be a lot better off if we see a healthy Ben Sheets.
One Reason the Brewers will lose in '07 is that everything I just said was also true last year, and it didn't stop them from finishing 71-91. The Brewers need to keep all their stars healthy and productive (Sheets, J.J. Hardy) and will need their rookies to step it up (Fielder and Weeks especially were good, but not that good).
Notes:
As I said before, Milwaukee has the roster to win a very winnable division. But it's like herding cats getting all these kids on the field and productive. I'm usually a big fan of GM Doug Melvin, but I don't think he's done the best of jobs this past year. The Carlos Lee trade wasn't particularly helpful, and neither was the Johnny Estrada trade with Arizona. There should be reason for optimism in Milwaukee, but not enough to cancel that October cruise.

CHICAGO CUBS
2006 W-L Record: 66-96 (6th)
2006 pW-pL Record: 70-92
2007 Projection: 78-84
Strengths: Hitting Prospects; Corner Infield
Weaknesses: Starting Pitching; Middle Infield
Biggest Change from '06: The Tribune Co.'s wallet now weighs as much as David Eckstein
One Reason:
One Reason the Cubs will win in '07 is that everything went wrong last year; that can't happen two years in a row. But just so you know -- I said the same thing last spring and was really proven wrong.
One Reason the Cubs will lose in '07 is that they've spent a gi-normous amount of money without really solving most of their problems. They've got a glut of players in the outfield, only half of whom are worth having, they've got far too many middle infielders than they can play, but then they probably shouldn't be playing that much either. They brought in two pitchers (Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis) that improve their starting rotation somewhat, but not nearly proportional to their cut of the payroll. Barring a trade, they've completely blocked most of their major-league ready prospects for the foreseeable future. They tried to fix a low-OBP, strikeout-heavy offense by bringing in the patron saint of poor plate discipline, Alfonso Soriano.
Only in a really unlikely scenario do the Cubs make it to October.
Notes:
I guess I vented my spleen there in the last comment.
But everyone thinks the Cubs have really improved this offseason. I think they've improved, too, but I'm not about to list them as contenders, as others have done. I've even heard some say that the Cubs are "favorites" in the NL Central. I've already dispensed with the notion that the Cubs have gotten a lot better. I think that this misplaced euphoria is the product of two things: One, that the only thing stronger than a sportswriter's cynicism is his blinding optimism concern his team, and two, that people have a really over-inflated opinion of Alfonso Soriano.
The Cubs will be lucky -- very lucky -- to win 80 games.

CINCINNATI REDS
2006 W-L Record: 80-82 (3rd)
2006 pW-pL Record: 76-86
2007 Projection: 78-84
Strengths: 1-2 starters; Adam Dunn, Edwin Encarnacion & Homer Bailey
Weaknesses: Back of rotation; bullpen; infield; upper management
Biggest Change from '06: Very little has changed, except that Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez are gone
One Reason:
One Reason that the Reds will win in '07 is . . . they have magic powers?
One Reason that the Reds will lose in '07 is that there's just not enough here to cobble together more than 82 wins, even with a good front office. All things considered, the Reds will be lucky to scrape their way up to .500
Notes:
The Reds are basically the same team they were last year, except that Ken Griffey, Jr. (and all their relievers) are a year older and nearing retirement. They also won't have Kearns & Lopez for the few months they had them last year. And the odds that Bronson Arroyo will pitch like a Cy Young contender again is remote.
With all these players declining, who's going to be the one to help the Reds break even, let alone improve? Homer Bailey is a big hope. The problem is that because the Reds are so bad and Bailey is so good, they're starting to prepare for his arrival like he's the Messiah. That never ends well, for either the fans or the player, especially.

HOUSTON ASTROS
2006 W-L Record: 82-80 (2nd)
2006 pW-pL Record: 83-79
2007 Projection: 75-87
Strengths: Infield Corners, Roy Oswalt
Weaknesses: Gaping holes in lineup; hapless back of the rotation
Biggest Change from '06: Willy Taveras and Andy Pettite weren't great, but an 80-win team still can't afford to lose them
One Reason:
One reason that the Astros will win in '07 is that maybe they can fool the umpires by giving Lance Berkman a bunch of wigs and letting him take up 6 spots in the order.
One reason that the Astros will lose in '07 is that their only strong weapon was their pitching, and it's just not anymore there like it was.
Notes:
The Astros are another one of those teams whose win range is really about 20 wins wide. But the realistic guess is that they'll end up at the bottom of that estimation. Their offense was terrible before they traded Willy Taveras. They've got about half a dozen holes in a 9-man lineup. Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, and Morgan Ensberg are each very good hitters. But if surrounded by 6 clones of Rafael Belliard, they're not too threatening.
Now take into account that their starting pitching is significantly worse than it was two years ago, or even last year. Getting 3 months of Roger Clemens at 6 innings a pop won't solve that problem.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES
2006 W-L Record: 67-95 (5th)
2006 pW-pL Record: 70-92
2007 Projection: 69-93
Strengths: Ummm . . . let's see . . . their logo is cool?
Weakness: Gross Incompetence . . . and their lineup sucks, too
Biggest Change from '06: Adam LaRoche, plus more seasoning for their young starters
One Reason:
One reason the Pirates will win in '07 is that we'll enter a parallel universe where a loss is really a win.
One reason the Pirates will lose in '07 is that they're the Pirates, man.
Notes:
I know I've said it before, but the Pirates are the sort of team who will just coast to 70 wins every year so long as they can find some sort of semi-exciting event in the offseason to sell season tickets. They're boring and that's a lot worse than just being bad.

Back tomorrow with the NL West.

Looking Ahead: Kansas City Royals

• The Cubs signed Jason Marquis to a 3-year deal worth reportedly $21 million. On the face of it, that's not bad. With Gil Meche getting 5/55 and Adam Eaton getting 3/24, Marquis is one of the cheapest free agent starters signed this offseason.
  That all sounds great. The problem is that there's a reason that Marquis came so cheap. All of Marquis' vital signs have been heading steadily southward for the past two years. And his work before that wasn't inspiring, either.
  Marquis started off as a big prospect in the Braves' organization who soon became famous for not getting along with Leo Mazzone. Talk about a really terrible way to make a name for yourself. Marquis' numbers would seem to confirm the idea that he wasn't listening to Leo. Marquis pitched parts of four seasons in Atlanta, and only once did he keep his ERA below 5.00. He never logged more than 22 starts or 130 innings, mainly because he was usually the team's 5th starter and didn't pitch well enough to move up in the world. Even in his one good season, 2001, Marquis' 3.48 ERA was belied by a 59:98 BB:K ratio in 129.1 IP. As time went on, Marquis' walk rate stayed high and his strikeout rate started to fall. The Braves wisely shipped him off to St. Louis in the J.D. Drew trade.
  Marquis experienced a semi-renaissance in St. Louis, at least in ERA terms. Perhaps because of the Cardinals' better defense, or simply due to luck, Marquis finished 2004 with a respectable 3.71 ERA. He also finally managed to stick in the rotation; he threw 201.1 IP in 32 starts. He finished the season with a Game 4 loss in the World Series, but it still seemed as though he had come a long way.
  Not so fast. Marquis' BB:K ratio in 2003 was 70:138, or little better than it was before. He also allowed 26 HR, a lot for Busch Stadium. In looks like, in retrospect, Marquis' ERA was better than it should have been given what he was doing on the mound.
  Over the past two years, all of his numbers have degenerated. He went from a still-decent ERA of 4.13 in 2005 to a 6.02 mark last year. His home runs increased to 29 in '05 and 35 in '06 (making him the league leader in home runs allowed and earned runs allowed). His BB:K ratio got worse; in 2005, he lost 38 strikeouts despite pitching more innings (69:100 in 207 IP) and in 2006 it was just as poor (75:96 in 194.1 IP).
  Let me get this straight -- you've got a guy who gives up a lot of walks and a lot of homers, and yet is one of the worst strikeout pitchers in the league? A guy whose peripherals (BB, K, HR) have all headed sharply downward in recent years? Yes, he's just 28 years old, but he's also already managed to alienate two of the best pitching coaches in baseball, Mazzone and the Cards' Dave Duncan.
  And you're going out of your way to sign this fellow?
  If Marquis can bounce back to his 2004-5 form (4.00-ish ERA), then he will be worth $7 million. But that's very doubtful. His peripheral stats don't suggest someone likely to rebound; they suggest someone likely to stay just as bad as he is. Which doesn't even take Wrigley Field into account; if Marquis gave up 35 jacks in Busch Stadium last year, how will he do in the Friendly Confines? How will his high number of baserunners and fly balls survive over on the North Side?
  Marquis is a terrible fit for the Cubs. There are several arms out there with a better short- and long-term future. Miguel Batista may be older, but he's at least effective. The Cubs could have put together a couple "B" prospects and gotten Rodrigo Lopez from the Orioles. Lopez is similar to Marquis, except he has stronger peripherals and has pitched against much tougher competition. He's also much cheaper.
  There are only two real consolations to this deal: 1) Marquis is at least durable. Even if his ERA is around 5.00 (which is most likely), he can still eat up innings. Not that that will really help the ballclub, or be worth $7 million annually. And 2) he's relatively cheap. At least the Cubs didn't go all in with Gil Meche for $55 million. But even Meche has a better upside than Marquis, who has every sign of a pitcher headed south -- not just for the winter, but for good.
  The Cubs' are the consensus "winners" of the offseason so far, judging by the comments I've heard from columnists and commentators. This just goes to show that everyone still thinks that the best thing a GM can do is be active. Whether all of that action really helps the team is irrelevant.
  I've even heard talk that the Cubs are the favorites in the NL Central. Pshaw. The Cubs lost 96 frickin' games last year. They'd have to improve by at least 18-20 wins to win the division. That's a lot of wins, folks.
  Let's make a quick comparison to see how much better the 2007 Cubs look than their predecessors.
  Center Field: '06: Juan Pierre (5.2 WARP3); '07: Alfonso Soriano (10.2 WARP3)
  (Soriano's WARP3 is his 2006 number)
  Looks like 5 wins right there, correct? But Soriano's 2006 numbers were as a left fielder. Given his (perceived) trouble in shifting to center field, we can likely revise that number slightly downward.
  2006 was also a career year for Soriano. His WARP 3 in the two previous seasons were 5.7 and 5.0. So it's more likely that the Cubs will be gaining at most one or two wins with Soriano in center field. And that's not even taking age-related decline into account.
  EST. WINS ADDED: 1.5 (let's be generous)
  Second Base: '06: Todd Walker (2.3 WARP3); '07: Mark DeRosa (5.7 WARP3)
  Looks like a gain of about 3.5 wins here, right? In fact, since Walker shared the position with the terrible Ronny Cedeno (1.7 WARP3), it could be as much as 4 wins added!
  But again, not so fast. DeRosa's 2006 was a giant career year (yet another signed to a big contract by Hendry). It was, in fact very far outside of his expected performance. DeRosa's WARP3 in the 3 years prior to last year were: 1.2, 0.1, 2.0.
  So even assuming that DeRosa doesn't lose any offensive or defensive value as he ages next year, he's only a marginal improvement over the Walker/Cedeno team. But let's be optimistic and assume that DeRosa keeps some of his unlikely offense from 2006.
  EST. WINS ADDED: 0.5 (generous again)
  Starting Pitcher: '06: Greg Maddux (3.4 WARP3); '07: Ted Lilly (5.6 WARP3)
  Two wins added here, right? In fact, it's probably a little more than that, since Maddux was traded to Los Angeles for the last two months of the season, and his spot was taken over by awful pitchers. So even assuming that Lilly takes a step back from his strong 2006 performance, the Cubs should get 2 wins here.
  EST. WINS ADDED: 2
  Starting Pitcher: '06: Sean Marshall (1.7 WARP3); '07: Jason Marquis (1.4 WARP3)
  It looks like the Cubs are just breaking even here. This gives us even more insight into the Marquis deal; the Cubs already had some marginal starting pitchers who were just as productive as Marquis without having to go out and spend $21 million. Even if we assume that Marquis takes a step forward (not likely), there's no reason to expect that he'd do much better than the fleet of marginal pitchers the Cubs trotted out there last year. And those guys at least had the advantage of being younger, cheaper, and with better upside.
  EST. WINS ADDED: 0, for $21 million
  GRAND TOTAL OF WINS ADDED THIS OFFSEASON: 4
  Jim Hendry has spent nearly $200 million to add about 4 wins to his team (and 4 is the optimistic answer).
  That is not a victory.
  Granted, there are some other areas where the Cubs can improve besides free agency next season (a healthy Derrek Lee, for one). But to me, they're still about a 70-75 win team, and that won't win even the NL Central. To statheads and mainstreamers alike: jump the hell off the Cubs bandwagon and put your thinking caps back on.
• The Tigers signed Brandon Inge to a 4-year, $24 million contract extension. Inge was scheduled to be a free agent after 2007, I believe, so this was their effort to lock him up long-term.
  I don't mind the money so much; $6 million isn't bad at all for a solid third baseman. But I'm not sure why they'd extend it to four years. Inge will be 29 next year, so the deal will lock him up through his age 33 season. There's not much reason to extend it that far; Inge is a career 241/302/398 hitter, and once he starts to decline, he'll be a big liability. I know that the Tigers don't have any third base prospects breathing down his neck. But I still question the wisdom of locking up a marginal player for four years, well past the point where he's due to decline.

That's all the big news. Things should be pretty quiet over the holidays, at least in terms of free agent deals. The Red Sox and Matsuzaka are still rumored to be a couple miles apart in negotiations. I've read some interesting views on this, especially from Peter Gammons and Nate Silver. But this will make for some interesting headlines in the weeks to come.

And now for the slightly less dreadful but still pretty much hopeless Kansas City Royals.

2006 W-L Record: 62-100
2006 pW-pL Record: 63-99
Runs Scored: 757 (12th in AL)
Runs Allowed: 971 (14th in AL -- dead last by a mile)
Free Agents: Doug Mientkiewicz, Mark Redman

2007 Projected Lineup:
1B -- Ryan Shealy
2B -- Mark Grudzielanek
SS -- Angel Berroa
3B -- Mark Teahen/Alex Gordon
LF -- David DeJesus
CF -- Joey Gathright
RF -- Emil Brown/Reggie Sanders
C -- John Buck/Jason LaRue
DH -- Mike Sweeney/Billy Butler

2007 Proj. Rotation:
Gil Meche
Scott Elarton
Zach Greinke?
Luke Hudson
Odalis Perez/Brian Bannister/??

2007 Proj. Closer: Octavio Dotel

Offense/Defense:
The defense may still be wretched, but there are encouraging signs that the Royals' offense is getting better. This is due to some shrewd trading (Teahen, Shealy) as well as some (gasp) farm products such as uber-prospect Alex Gordon and professional hitter Billy Butler. The Royals also have more outfield prospects than you can shake a stick at, which certainly means that guys like Emil Brown, Reggie Sanders, and even the venerable Mike Sweeney could be traded to make room for them. The Royals right now are dealing with the clash of "old, bad team" and "young, good team," at least in their lineup. It creates a lot of gridlock, but there are worse problems you could have than having too many big-league hitters.
With Sweeney stuck at DH (and the possibilities of a team taking his contract next to nil), the Royals will have to fit all of their prospects onto the diamond. Ryan Shealy will be at first base. He was purloined from Colorado in the deal that sent disappointing pitchers Jeremy Affeldt and Denny Bautista over. There was no place for Shealy in Denver with Todd Helton around, but he's got a spot with his name on it in KC. The Rockies' system is hitter-friendly, but even then, Shealy's numbers look good, with his career minor league stats at 319/408/591. He started out 2006 in Colorado Springs (284/351/568) and spent 5 games with the big club before getting trade to KC. He hit well enough there, a 280/338/451 clip. Shealy is old for a prospect (27 next year), but that's mainly due to being blocked by Helton. He projects as a quality hitter and will be cheap for several years now. The Royals may want to look into trading him, though, if the outfield gets too crowded and no one wants to take Reggie Sanders.
At third base, the incumbent (for now) is Mark Teahen. Teahen became famous in the Moneyball draft and unfortunately had to live up to that as he ascended to the majors. Teahen's first season in the majors was a disappointment (246/309/376), and he got off to a slow start in 2006 before he went on an absolute tear. He finished the season at 290/357/517 and was one of the league's best third basemen despite ending the season early due to injury. Teahen will be just 25 next year, and most of the signs are that his breakout was for real.
In a way, though, Teahen's success complicates things, because the Royals' #1 prospect is also a third baseman. Actually, you could argue that Alex Gordon is the majors' best prospect. He's the only #1 overall pick the Royals have ever had, and statheads and scouts alike salivate over him. Gordon starred with the University of Nebraska before signing with the Royals. The soon-to-be 23-year-old has only spent one season in the minors: 2006 with Double-A Wichita, where he was dominant (325/427/588). The Royals believe that he's ready for the majors right now, and it's hard to argue with that.
The only question is where the Royals will play him. Teahen has good defense at third, and with his productive 2006, it's hard to move him. Gordon is also strong defensively, but his superior bat may get him moved to right field. Either way, it's good news, as Gordon projects not only as a star but as a possible MVP. The only trouble is that it complicates the outfield picture.
But we'll get to that in a minute. The middle infield, as compared to the corners, looks pretty dismal. There was even some talk (perhaps idle) of moving the athletic Teahen to shortstop, but I doubt that would ever happen. It wouldn't be a bad idea, though, since the Royals' incumbent shortstop is Angel Berroa.
If you took a poll among statheads to elect the worst player in baseball, Berroa would likely win. Yes, there are worse guys playing as part-timers. But none as bad as Berroa play everyday, nor were they given long-term contracts based on one good year.
Berroa won the 2003 Rookie of the Year Award (which should have gone to Hideki Matsui), and then got a 4-year, $11 million contract from KC. Unfortunately, Berroa's 2003 was an aberration, and he's been thoroughly awful ever since. The Royals owe him $8 million over the next two years, and no team in baseball would take a player so worthless. If the Royals can afford to pay Gil Meche $55 million, then they can afford to eat that $8 million and release Berroa. Because no one else can combine poor conditioning, poor work ethic, and poor defense with such awful hitting (234/259/333 last year).
At second base, the incumbent is Mark Grudzielanek. Grudz did a good job with the Royals last year (297/331/409 with solid defense). So good, in fact, that the team didn't just exercise his 2007 option -- they signed the 36-year-old to a new contract with a 2008 option. That's a bit overeager for a middle-aged second baseman.
But Grudzielanek was pushed last year by Esteban German. German doesn't have Grudz's reliable glove, but he did bring a good batting average and superb on-base skills to the job in 2006, hitting 326/422/459. That may be a bit over his head, but his minor league numbers support his OBP. He's cheap and will be just 28 next year. I'm hoping that the Royals will use German primarily (he'd be a fine leadoff man) at second, with Grudz as his defensive backup. But since they've given him a new contract, I fear the offensively inferior Grudzielanek will get the lion's share of playing time.
Behind the plate, the Royals supplemented disappointing rookie John Buck (career 242/292/400 in 3 seasons) with disappointing veteran Jason LaRue (194/317/346 in '06). The Royals may be tired of waiting for Buck to develop; he was supposed to be a major-league ready catcher, but he turns 27 next year, and we may have already seen his best. LaRue is a free agent after next season, but came cheap from Cincinnati, obtained for a PTBNL, with Cincy even picking up a chunk of his salary. LaRue is normally a good source of power with a penchant for leaning into one now and then (93 career HBP) to give him a decent OBP. He struggled mightily in '06, but he's a good pickup and should give the team a bit of a boost from behind the dish.
As far as the outfield goes, let's start with the incumbents. David DeJesus was stretched as a center fielder and was eventually moved over to left last year when the team got Joey Gathright. DeJesus has very little power, but he hits for a decent average and draws some walks (career 292/362/434 hitter). He's not a bad solution in left field, but may soon be pushed out of the role by the likes of Billy Butler. DeJesus may be one of the more desirable trade chips the Royals have; he's still arbitration-eligible, can play center field in a pinch, and has a strong offensive game.
The trouble is that the Royals' true center fielder, Joey Gathright, just isn't much of a hitter. He hit a woeful 262/332/328 with the team after being traded from Tampa Bay. His speed had made him a very overrated prospect in the Tampa Bay system, and it was the Royals who took the gamble on bringing him in. His minor league stats show strong plate discipline and good contact hitting. But his defense in center just isn't that good. If he can't handle the position defensively, then there's really no point in using someone like Gathright as more than a fourth outfielder. If his defense doesn't improve, he may not keep the job; and that's even if his offense does come around.
In right field, you've got free agent Reggie Sanders and Emil Brown. Sanders was another in a long line of useless free agents signed by the Allard Baird regime. He didn't sign for much money, but it was for a two-year deal, and the Royals were never really lacking for corner outfielders. Sanders looked like he was ready to decline when he left St. Louis, and did he ever: 246/304/425 in only 88 games due to injury. The 39-year-old isn't going to get any better, and the Royals would love to trade him if anyone will take him. I doubt it. They'd probably be better off releasing him and freeing up the roster spot.
(This may be off the subject, but do you know those people who are embarassed of their middle name? Add Sanders to the list: his full name is Reginald Laverne Sanders. And Laverne & Shirley was on right when he was a kid. Ouch.)
Emil Brown is, like David DeJesus, a talented player who still isn't quite good enough to fit into your long-term plans. He's defensively limited, so he's not going to take over center anytime soon. But like DeJesus, he has a strong offensive game; he hit 287/358/457 last year. He has a little more power than DeJesus (15 HR in '06) but not as much plate discipline (95 strikeouts). He's another one of those guys who's great to have when you're losing, but is also ripe for an upgrade. His name will likely be mentioned in trade rumors, as the Royals can't play all of these guys.
The player most likely to elbow his way into the outfield scene is Billy Butler. Butler is a defensive loss; he'd be better served as a DH, which makes it more likely that Mike Sweeney will be leaving somehow. He started as a third baseman, but wasn't even in the same hemisphere as Teahen and Gordon, defensively. Since then, he's been an outfielder/DH, but Baseball Prospectus 2006 quotes one scout as saying that Butler was the worst defensive outfielder he'd ever seen. So right now, he's a player without a position.
But his big bat will likely force the issue, meaning that somebody's going to get benched or traded. At the wee age of 20, Butler spent 2006 in Double-A Wichita and hit 331/388/499 with 15 HR and 33 doubles. He hits for a high average, has great power potential, and has much better plate discipline than you'd expect for such a slugger (41:67 BB:K ratio in '06). The fact that he hasn't reached Triple-A yet, combined with the lack of a spot for him on the big league roster, may mean that Butler starts 2007 in the minors. But it won't be long before he swats his way into the big-league lineup, and he's the kind of corner outfield stud that GMs can salivate over. And he'll just be 21!!
There are some other outfield prospects making some noise in the minors (Shane Costa, Chris Lubanski, Mitch Maier) as well as another 1B/DH type, Justin Huber. Having this much hitting talent isn't just good news for the Royals, whose offense should vastly improve in the next couple years; it also means that there are a lot of useful spare parts around to potentially make a trade for pitching. This should be one of the organization's top priorities. Hitters like Gordon and Butler will be ready soon. Unfortunately, the Royals' pitching staff looks abysmal in the short term, long term, and any other term, for that matter.

Pitching:
I've already ranted about the signing of Gil Meche. But, as marginal a pitcher as he is, he's also probably the best starting pitcher the Royals have, making him their de facto ace. That's a dubious compliment for Meche, just as it was for Mark Redman last year.
Behind Meche is . . . well, another nice Meche. They've still got free agent hurler Scott Elarton. But the Elarton signing was similar to the Meche signing (minus about $30 mil.); the Royals couldn't afford to sign good free agent pitchers, so they signed bad ones. Elarton was coming off a 2005 with Cleveland where he posted a 4.61 ERA -- and that was a career year! Coming to Kansas City, Elarton was just a hair better than replacement level, making 20 starts and posting a 5.34 ERA with a 52:49 BB:K ratio -- yes, he actually walked more batters than he struck out, which is a bad pitcher's badge of honor. The 31-year-old will be back again in 2007. Uggh.
The status of Zach Greinke, who was supposed to be the Royals' ace of the future, is still uncertain. Greinke broke through with an excellent debut in 2004, but then struggled mightily through a dreadful sophomore campaign in 2005. In the midst of the 2006 season, Greinke left the team to deal with "personal issues." He never came back. The team has refused to comment on the nature of these "issues," but they've gone on record as supporting Greinke and hoping that he will return.
We can all speculate as to what these "issues" are, but unless we know for sure, we can't guess when he will be back, or at what level of effectiveness. Greinke still has the potential to be a very effective starter, so the Royals are holding out hope. But until he does return, hope is all that any of us can do.
Those are the three "stars" of the Royal rotation (which is pretty hideous). Behind them, the Royals will be scraping the bottom of the barrel for anyone or anything that can keep an ERA under 5.00. The likely fourth starter will be Luke Hudson, the former prospect who turns 30 next year. He's in Kansas City now after the Reds gave up on him (!). He threw 102 innings last year with a 5.02 ERA, which is at least good enough for thr #4 spot in this rotation.
Brian Bannister, obtained from the Mets, is a possible #5. The Royals also have Odalis Perez, obtained from the Dodgers in a trade. The Dodgers may be picking up a chunk of his big salary, but still, you'd rather watch a pitcher spontaneously combust on someone else's nickel.
The Royals may not be done picking up starters on the free agent market. But with the Meche contract in mind, let's hope that they are.

The Royal bullpen was equally culpable in the 2006 team's near-1000 runs allowed (the next-worst team allowed 899, 72 runs less than KC). The woeful defense also deserves mention (12th in the league in defensive efficiency). But the bullpen certainly wasn't doing anybody any favors.
One of the culprits was woeful closer Ambiorix Burgos. But, despite the fact that he still has good potential, Burgos is gone, replaced by free agent Octavio Dotel.
Dotel didn't cost much and is a good choice for a low-payroll team looking for some stability in the closer's role. Dotel hasn't had a lot of success closing, but has been one of the top strikeout pitchers in all of baseball for several years now, posting good ERAs along the way.
The troubling aspect of the Dotel deal is health. Dotel is supposed to be recovered from the health problems that limited him to 10 IP last year, but that's a questionable issue for any 33-year-old. He also had problems in 2005, where he only pitched 15.1 IP. So Dotel hasn't pitched a full season since 2004, the last time he was tried as a closer (in Oakland). Despite his strikeouts (72 K in 50.2 IP), he pretty much bombed (4.09 ERA).
But I'm guessing that the Royals knew the risks with Dotel. And even if he does post a 4.00 ERA, he's still a strikeout machine. And it's not like the Royals will give him as many save chances as Oakland did. You could do worse.
Behind Dotel is a very, very questionable bunch. Andy Sisco was, like every other Royals pitcher, rushed through the minors under the Allard Baird regime. He was still supposed to be a future star, but after struggling in 2005, Sisco's 2006 in Kansas City was even worse: a 7.10 ERA in 58.1 IP (4o walks allowed). One thing we can all agree upon is that when your ERA starts looking like an airplane, you're in trouble.
Jimmy Gobble, having failed in the starting rotation, moved into the Royals' bullpen as the long-relief man last year. He posted a 5.14 ERA, but also ate up 84 innings and struck out 80. He's no star, but he's necessary on this team, especially if the starters end up being a bunch of 5-inning men again.
The reliever who had the most success with KC last year was Joel Peralta. Peralta was a minor league veteran in the Angels' system when he finally got the call to the majors in 2005 (3.89 ERA). His time in Kansas City was less successful (4.40 ERA), but his peripherals are encouraging enough (17:57 BB:K ratio despite 10 HR allowed) that he should do about as well again in 2007.
By the way -- One of the "bad" kind of surprises: it was recently discovered that Peralta is four years older than he originally claimed. This sort of "mistake" is common among Latin American prospects, anxious to improve their chances of getting signed. So Peralta went from 26 to 30 overnight (he'll be 31 next year).
Former Cub Todd Wellemeyer posted the best ERA in the bullpen, a 3.63 mark. But in his 57 innings of work, he managed a dead even BB:K ratio of 37:37; not a good recipe for future success.
And behind these guys, the Royals have the same band of cast-offs as usual. There will be plenty of chances for an outsider to win a job during Spring Training.
The Royal bullpen of 2007 should be somewhat better than that of 2006, if for no other reason than because it can't get a whole lot worse.

Offseason Game Plan:
You've done enough damage already; keep that wallet in your pants.
Shop around your spare outfielders to see what kind of pitching you can get. It may be a longshot, but it's at least worth the effort.
Small Market 101: get as many possibilities as you can invited to Spring Training. Avoid signing major league deals when a minor league deal will suffice.
In short: get pitching. If at all possible.

News bits

The end of the Winter Meetings has seen a good deal of action, almost entirely on the free agent front. All of the deals that nearly happened (Astros getting Jon Garland, Brewers getting Jon Lieber, etc.) far outnumbered the one trade that took place on the final day of the meetings (the Braves fleece the Mariners). Down to business:

• Barry Bonds returns to the Giants for a 1 year, $16 million deal. I'm surprised that Bonds got this much, since the Giants were the only team actively bidding for him. A couple of teams had kicked the tires on Bonds (supposedly the Cardinals), but I don't know of any other offers made for him. So the Giants are once again making 2007 do-or-die, pinning their hopes (and a possible $20 million, with incentives) to Mr. Bonds.
  Honestly, though, they didn't have much choice. The Giants backed themselves into this corner a couple years ago, and Bonds was the only option still out there capable of putting big runs up on the board. Not only do the Giants need him, but this will make things a lot more comfortable if/when Bonds passes Hank Aaron's record. San Francisco will be more receptive than any other city by far to the milestone, and Bonds should know that.
  Bottom line, this was a necessary deal for the Giants, and it's a good thing for them that they made it. I'm just surprised it cost them so much.
• Andy Pettitte will be going back to the Yankees for a 1 year, $16 million. No, I don't think that Andy Pettitte is as valuable as Barry Bonds. But the $16 million was likely a trade-off for keeping the contract to one year. The Yankees, remember haven't spent any money yet this off-season. They've exercised admirable restraint, and so they've got the money to spend on Pettitte. The Yanks need some stability for their starting rotation until prospect Phillip Hughes is ready, and I guess they're ready to pay for it.
  I haven't found out yet who it was that wanted it to be a 1-year deal, the Yanks or Pettitte. Pettitte was supposedly considering retirement this offseason, so he may just want a 1-year commitment. It's also possible that the Yankees don't want to make a long-term commitment to a pitcher who turns 35 next year when they've got the phenom Hughes on the rise.
  It should be noted that Pettitte has a player option for 2008, which is also for $16 million. So if Pettitte wants to play another year, it will be the Yankees on the hook for a rather exorbitant amount.
• Whither Roger Clemens? That's the subtext of any deal for Pettitte. Reports are that if Clemens does play in 2007, it will most likely be with Pettitte, i.e. with the Yankees. This is good news for New York, who could always use a potential ace in the second half of the season. They can also pay the price.
  I've also heard that if the Red Sox fail to sign Daisuke Matsuzaka (which is starting to look more and more likely), they might aggressively target Clemens. This would not only fill their hole in the starting rotation, but help mollify the angry mobs at Fenway.
• Whither the Astros? I've heard from several places that Pettitte was willing to take just $14 million to stay in Houston, but that the Astros wouldn't budge from their offer of $12 million.
  The Astros look really bad now, having lost out on a big-time pitcher for $2 million (which you can find in owner Drayton McLane's couch cushions). It's also bad news, because the Astros need starting pitching much more than the Yankees do. The Astros have been contenders on and off for more than ten years now, but their roster of talent is thinning out, which is why they doled out $100 million of desperation money to Carlos Lee. Understandable, but this is also a starting rotation that currently consists of Roy Oswalt and his Merry Men. The Astros only have one established starting pitcher behind Oswalt, and that's a risky old fellow named Woody Williams. They needed Pettitte bad, and now they're going to have to look for help elsewhere.
  The Astros were rumored to be near a deal for White Sox starter Jon Garland involving Willy Taveras and one of their pitching prospects (Jason Hirsh, Taylor Buchholz), but that fell through at the last minute. In my opinion, it's damn lucky for the Astros that it did. Not that Taveras is any big loss, but there's absolutely no reason to trade out a young pitcher with the promise of Hirsh (or even Buchholz) for an overrated, expensive Jon Garland. The Astros would be much better off suffering through Hirsh and Buchholz's growing pains than paying $22 million for 2 years of LAIM.
  But GM Tim Purpura is most likely going to aggressively hunt for veteran starting pitching, now that he's lost Pettitte. This puts the Astros in a bind, since they're already a team on the way down and can't afford to lose any of the few prospects they have.
  Jayson Stark of ESPN.com suggested that the Astros may have felt pressure not to go whole hog on Pettitte after spending so much on Carlos Lee. The MLB is apparently not too thrilled with that contract. Really Mr. Selig, if you're angry about salary inflation, don't get mad at Drayton McLane and Carlos Lee. Talk to the Colletti-Pierre connection.
• Ted Lilly has signed with the Cubs for 4 years and $40 mil. Lilly is a prime example of salary inflation at work. His contract isn't nearly as bad as that given to Adam Eaton, but while it's not a total loss, it's still a potential blunder. Lilly doesn't have the advantage of being very good (career 4.56 ERA, ERA+ of 99) or very durable (0 seasons of 200 IP; only 3 seasons of more than 130).
  But you could do a lot worse. Lilly will have the advantage of moving from the AL East to the NL Central, which will knock half a run off his ERA at least. He's just going to be 31 next year, so 4 years isn't too dreadful. And he's perfectly capable of giving you above-average work, just not with great staying power. My guess is that while the Cubs may end up regretting the contract, Lilly will probably give them one or two good years. And with a starting rotation pretty bare behind Carlos Zambrano, the Cubs need that.
• If Ted Lilly's contract is understandable, Gil Meche's contract isn't. It's easily the worst contract given to a pitcher this off-season and even rivals the Double-Uglies of Matthews, Jr. & Pierre.
  The Royals will be paying Meche for $55 million for 5 years. Even in context, this is absurd; Gil Meche isn't nearly as good as Ted Lilly or Jason Schmidt, and yet he's getting a longer commitment for more overall money than either man. Meche is pretty much the AL's answer to Adam Eaton, except getting paid more than twice as much.
  Meche, spending his entire career in a pitcher's park, hasn't had a better-than-average ERA since 2000. He was barely average in 2003 and 2006, and even then he didn't throw 200 innings (he's never topped 186.2). Sandwiched between that were two pretty awful seasons in 2004 and 2005 (5.01 ERA, 5.09 ERA). Meche did set a new career high in strikeouts last year with 156; he also set a career high in walks (84). Three times he's allowed more than 20 HR in a season (he allowed 30 overall in '03), despite never throwing many innings and enjoying the spacious confines of Safeco Field.
  Meche is a pretty bad pitcher with little room to improve. And he's been given a huge contract from perhaps the one team in baseball that can least afford it.
  I've heard two main defenses of the Meche deal. One is that, at age 28, Meche is one of the youngest pitchers on the free agent market. But youth is irrelevant if it doesn't also equal quality. Meche's youth indicates that he won't start deteriorating for a while yet. Which is great, because he doesn't have much room to deteriorate.
  The other defense is that the Royals are trying to spend money to lure free agents to the club. Kansas City isn't a very attractive destination for free agents, and the Royals are trying to solve this problem with money.
  Bad idea.
  A lot of parallels have been drawn with the Tigers, who went out and spent a lot of money after losing 119 games and ended up winning the pennant. Bad comparison. The Tigers overpaid yes -- but they overpaid on good players like Ivan Rodriguez and Magglio Ordonez. If the Royals had overpaid to bring in Jason Schmidt or even Ted Lilly, this would have been more understandable. But there is no realistic way to justify giving a lot of money to a marginal player.
  The next few years will see the Royals trying desperately to justify Meche's deal. Just wait: if Meche gets off to a good start this year, even if only for a month, everyone will say that the deal is turning out well for the Royals. But I'm not a big fan of looking for silver linings where they don't exist. The Royals just spent more than last year's entire payroll ($47.3 million) to get a player that could be replaced by half a dozen Triple-A pitchers. Not only did they get a poor player, they spent more money to get him than other teams spent to get infinitely better pitchers such as Schmidt and even Lilly.
  There is no positive way to spin this deal. That's not to say that Meche won't have a good year or maybe even two -- but the Royals just can't justify committing this much money to such a player. They may think they're seeing light at the end of the tunnel, but that's not a tunnel; it's a hole.
• The White Sox traded Freddy Garcia the Phillies for Gavin Floyd & Gio Gonzalez. This works out fairly well for both clubs; Garcia was expensive and easily replaceable by Brandon McCarthy. The Phillies need starting pitching desperately (preferably those that can keep the ball on the ground) and are probably getting a bargain in Garcia, who's only under contract for one more year.
  The Phillies didn't have to give up a whole lot for him. That's partially because of the one-year commitment, but also because Garcia is coming off a bad year with some troubling peripherals. But I think that Garcia -- who's been pretty reliable throughout his career in terms of both quality and productivity -- is a good pickup for Philadelphia.
  Gavin Floyd is a top-shelf talent who hasn't yet turned that into major league production. It was starting to look like Floyd was never going to get big league hitters out in Philadelphia. But he's young yet (24 next year) and not a bad guy to take a chance on. Gonzalez is a good pitching prospect that the White Sox actually developed themselves; they sent him to Philadelphia last year in the Aaron Rowand deal, and are now getting him back. The acquisition of two pitching prospects may make someone else expendable, as evidenced by GM Kenny Williams' attempts to trade Jon Garland to Houston.
  My only problem with this deal is that I wonder if the White Sox couldn't have gotten more for Garcia. This deal hurts them in the short run, but not as much as people have said; the difference between Garcia's performance next year and that of Brandon McCarthy isn't likely to be too far apart, and the long-term advantages were worth making the trade. But I wonder if Williams couldn't have gotten more for a legitimate #2 pitcher (or #3, if you're skeptical) in a market like this. But I don't know; maybe this was the best he could get.
• Luis Gonzalez signed a 1-year deal with the Dodgers for $7 million to take over as their left fielder. Now Gonzalez isn't the player he once was, but he's still pretty productive, as evidenced by his 52 doubles and .352 OBP last year. It's not a lot of money, really. And it would be a great deal for a team that really needed a left fielder.
  But the Dodgers don't need a left fielder. They especially don't need a left fielder with very little defensive value who throws a baseball like it's a shot put. They've already got, in Matt Kemp, a young prospect who looks perfectly capable of ascending to the major leagues -- and for the minimum salary, no less.
  This is another example of GM Ned Colletti's neglect (or ignorance) of his young talent. He's already closed off first base to prospect James Loney by acquiring Nomar Garciaparra; it's debatable whether Garciaparra will hit better than Loney in the short term, without even considering the long term problems of blocking him. He's done the same thing in left field with Gonzalez, although thankfully it's just a 1-year commitment. Still, every step forward looks like Colletti wants to turn this team into the Giants, and that's a very bad thing.
  Luckily, the team shouldn't suffer too much in the short run. Both Nomar and Gonzo are still productive enough, and the sweet Jason Schmidt deal will keep the team contenders. The only real clunker of a contract was the abomination handed out to Juan Pierre. But the long-term implications of Colletti's actions are troubling. Especially when all of the Dodgers' top young talent is rumored to be on the trading block, especially since these free agent deals are rendering them obsolete.
• The Braves traded Horacio Ramirez to Seattle for reliever Rafael Soriano. It was rumored that the Braves were shopping first baseman Adam LaRoche for relief pitching help, but that didn't pan out. Instead, the Braves were able to trade their injury-plagued, non-strikeout-getting #5 starter for one of the best arms in the AL.
  Wha' happen'?
  I guess John Schuerholz just happened in on Mariners GM Bill Bavasi when he was in a particularly gullible mood. Soriano has had some injury problems of his own, it's true, and missed the last part of 2006 after getting hit in the head by a line drive. But while there are some questions about his future, they're more than outweighed by his high upside. Soriano has an electric arm and has produced great relief work for the M's in recent years. Soriano's career ERA (2.89) is 50% better than the league average, even adjusting for his friendly ballpark. And in 171 career innings, he's struck out 177 batters against just 53 walks and 16 HR.
  If there's anything but a ready-made closer here, I don't see what it is.
  Even considering Soriano's injury problems, Bavasi has to get back something better than Horacio Ramirez. The Mariners need starting pitchers, yes, but they don't need to replace Gil Meche with his younger, National League counterpart who strikes out no one (less than 1 K every 2 innings, which is unacceptable in the big leagues, unless you're a freak like Chien-Ming Wang).
  The Braves were entering the season with nearly-retired 38-year old Bob Wickman as closer. And while Wickman might retain that title for a few months, there's no question who their closer of the future is. The Braves just made their future a good deal brighter and didn't have to give up their first baseman for it. Gnarly.
• Matt Stairs has reportedly agreed to a 1 year deal with the Toronto Blue Jays. I haven't confirmed a dollar amount. Stairs is still a useful hitter, especially as a lefty on a team filled with righties. He's also 39, slower than molasses in January, and a defensive impossibility.
  Did the Jays really need another one of these?
• The Giants resigned third baseman Pedro Feliz for a 1-year, $5 million deal. Remember when I said how much trouble the Giants were in if Rich Aurilia was their starting third baseman? Feliz is worse. Feliz isn't bad defensively and does have some power (22 HR last year). But he's also got a career OBP of .288 and a BB:K ratio that would do Dave Kingman proud (33:112 last year). He's going to be 32 and isn't really significantly better than Tony Batista.
  I know I've wondered in this space whether the Giants can get any worse. But I'd like to clarify something for GM Brian Sabean:
  "IT WAS A RHETORICAL QUESTION!"
• The Padres are hoping that Todd Walker will accept arbitration and fill their hole at second base. Walker's glove isn't made; it's smelted. But he's the best offensive solution to second base on the market, and he's a much better idea than giving any sort of multi-year deal to Ronnie Belliard (as the Padres were rumored to be considering). Rumors had the Padres pursuing Braves 2B Marcus Giles via a trade, which would have been great, but you can't always get what you want. The Padres are also trying to talk David Wells out of retirement. It's better than nothing, I guess, but really, how much does Wells have left?

With the Winter Meetings over, it looks like things will be quiet for a time. We'll soon find out who's accepted arbitration from their teams, and we'll also find out who's getting tendered a contract. There could be some interesting names set free, but probably no one more desirable than Kevin Mench.
I should also mention the Rule 5 draft, which took place at the Winter Meetings. The Rule 5 draft enables a team to draft players not on a major league team's 40-man roster. It's a chance for players lost in the minor leagues to get a chance with a new team. The team gets the player for one year and has to keep him one level above where he was drafted (I believe). At the end of the year, the team can either return the player to the old organization or pay a fee to keep him.
One big change in the new CBA (Collective Bargaining Agreement) extended by one year the number of years a player is exempt from the Rule 5 draft. The draft only includes players with a certain number of years in the minor leagues. It was originally intended not just as a way for teams to look for bargains, but as an avenue for talented players to escape if a team had kept them trapped in the minors (all those Yankee first base prospects from 1925-1938 can identify). Unfortunately, the change in the CBA allows teams to keep players longer, making the Rule 5 draft much less interesting. Most of the players taken were long-shot prospects with only outside chances of contributing.

There's plenty more to come though, as these players are (as of now) still on the market:

Barry Zito, Roger Clemens, Eric Gagne, Miguel Batista, Trot Nixon, Cliff Floyd, Jeff Suppan, Mark Loretta, Keith Foulke, Kenny Lofton and many, many more.

We can also look forward to the public fireworks as the deadline for signing Daisuke Matsuzaka nears. It may be an ugly way to enjoy oneself, but then I'm not always proud of my glee.

Cheers.

Orgy of Spending

The word was that a lot of money was going to be thrown around this off-season. It's already started, and it's started very early. Teams are jumping at the opportunity to sign free agents before the new year, which is much faster than usual. They may be looking to get a good deal before the market changes. Or they may just be raising the market themselves by offering misplaced "bargains." We'll start with the biggest of them all (so far):

• The Chicago Cubs have reportedly agreed to an 8-year, $136 million contract with Alfonso Soriano. Now, I've been following baseball for some time now. It takes a lot to make me speechless -- to leave my lower jaw dragging on the ground. This contract has done it.
  I knew Soriano was going to get big money. I knew it might amount to "Beltran" money, or about $17 mil. a year. I figured Soriano would end up with something like $16-18 mil. for 5 years.
  But he surpassed even that. Soriano's $136 million is the 5th-biggest total package in major league history, behind only A-Rod, Manny Ramirez, Derek Jeter, and Todd Helton. It's worth noting that a) Soriano isn't nearly as good as any of those four players, b) he's older (31) than all of them were upon signing their deals, and c) even then, three of the four contracts listed above are now considered to be mistakes that the teams either have traded (A-Rod) or have tried desperately to trade (Ramirez, Helton).
  To commit Alfonso Soriano to this much money for 8 years is one thing and one thing only: ignorance brought about by sheer desperation.
  It's nothing new to say that the Cubs are desperate. They're a high-profile team that has underachieved for years. GM Jim Hendry's ass is on the line, and he's looking for anything he can get to save himself. In his desperation, he has turned to Soriano.
• Now, let us examine Soriano himself and the prospects that this deal will be a success. Soriano turns 31 years old in January. The deal will run through his 38-year-old season in 2014. At $17 million a year, you're counting on Soriano to be an MVP-caliber performer every year for 8 years, which is a near-impossible feat for anyone.
  Not only is Soriano's performance likely to decline in the coming years (especially his speed and defense), he's really not that good to begin with. The Cubs are paying Soriano to reproduce his 2006 season, where he hit 277/351/560 with 41 stolen bases. But how can you expect a 31-year-old to continue producing at a level that he's only reached once in his career? Soriano is a career 280/325/510 hitter. Among his most comparable players are Tony Batista, John Valentin, Bob Horner, and Geoff Jenkins. The best player among his top 10 comparables is Eric Chavez, who has defensive skills far and above anything Soriano has.
  Is it possible that Soriano can continue to hit like an MVP? It's highly doubtful. His 2006 season was so obviously a career year that it wouldn't be a surprise to see him revert to the unimpressive form he showed in Texas (in 2005, he hit 268/309/512 despite hitting in a hitter's park in the DH league). It's doubtful even that Soriano will continue to produce at his career levels; he's heading into the decline phase of his career and really wasn't that great to begin with. The Cubs have made the cardinal mistake of paying someone based on their best year ever, rather than basing it on their expected level of future production.
  The most unconscionable part of the contract is the 8-year commitment. Usually, when a team extends a contract to many years, they do it in return for a lower annual salary. But that doesn't seem to be the case here; the Cubs have damned themselves to paying Soriano both too much money and for too long. The risky proposition of an 8-year contract leaves the Cubs open to the possibility that Soriano's performance will tail off quickly, leaving them with no recourse but to eat the rest of his sizable contract.
  Realistically speaking, I cannot think of any scenario whereby this contract is a good one for Chicago. Even if Soriano hits to his 2006 level for 2 or three years and justifies his salary, that will be more than outweighed by the horrible prospect of paying him $17 million at age 38. Soriano's comparable players are full of high-strikeout players with little defensive value. This type of player almost never remains productive late into their 30's. The Cubs not only picked the wrong player to give this contract to, they picked the wrong type of player, which doesn't bode well for the future.
  But is there some reason to be optimistic about this deal? I guess there are a few. It will certainly boost the Cub offense in the short run. However, the Cubs are stuck with a player and no position for him to play. The Cubs already have about 5 second basemen (which is good, because Soriano should never return there). But they also already have a productive left fielder (Matt Murton) and a relatively productive right fielder (Jacque Jones). If the Cubs could trade Jones, that would make the deal somewhat more palatable, at least in the short run. The more likely result is that the Cubs will either bench or trade Murton. Neither of the three (Soriano, Murton, Jones) can play center field, which is odd, because that's a position that really is empty, unless the Cubs commit to rookie Felix Pie.
  To take this a bit further, let's assume that the Cubs replace Matt Murton with Alfonso Soriano. It seems like an amazing upgrade, due mainly to the inexplicable rise in Soriano's baseball reputation. What would they be getting in return? Let's examine them:
  
  Matt Murton, age 25: 303/370/462 career hitter in two seasons. Will earn the major league minimum of $400,000 in 2007. Strong defensive left fielder. Strong chance that his offense will improve even more.
  Alfonso Soriano, age 31: 280/325/510 career hitter in 8 seasons. Will earn $17 million in 2007. Poor left fielder who often looks completely lost. Good basestealer (which is of little importance). Strong chance his offense will decline from his career year in 2006, and then decline further as he ages. His speed will decline as well, as will his already-poor defensive skills.
  
  That's a pretty damn revealing comparison. Soriano has more star quality and has the better chance of hitting like an All-Star for a couple of years, moreso than Murton. He also has the stolen bases. But is that worth $16,600,000? The difference between Soriano and Murton is pretty marginal; I'd take Soriano over the short term, but Murton over the long term. Unfortunately, the Cubs have no choice but to stick with Soriano over the long term. This will prove even more disastrous in the later years of the contract, as the Cubs risk getting exactly zero contribution from Soriano for their $17 mil.
  
  Was this a bad move? Yes. Getting Soriano wasn't such a bad idea in principle, but the terms of the contract are hideous and could prove disastrous for Chicago's long-term plans. It's also a poor case of identifying your problems: the Cubs already had decent production in the outfield corners with no need to plunk down boffo bucks to improve there. They'd have been much better off spending on a 2nd-tier starting pitcher or a good middle infielder. Which brings me to my next point:
• The Cubs signed Mark DeRosa to be their starting second baseman for 3 years and $13 million. The bad news is that this move doesn't help the Cubs at all. DeRosa is a marginal defensive second baseman with a career batting line of 273/331/404. He'll be 32 years old next year, which means his defense could soon become untenable and his hitting could decline even further. The good news here is that while this move won't help the Cubs, it won't hurt them much either. DeRosa is an improvement over Ronny Cedeno, but then that's not saying much. Surely there was an actually good player out there to play second base. As it is, DeRosa will most likely just take up space, especially if he plays his way out of the starting lineup.
  This is another particularly damning move by Jim Hendry which should help seal his fate. With DeRosa and Soriano, you have two players coming off huge career years that Hendry signed to contracts. Hendy is either unfamiliar with the concept of the career year (which seems likely, since he's made the same mistake twice) or he's desperately trying to save his job. I'd say that both are true.
• On the plus side, the Cubs did re-sign Kerry Wood to a very sensible deal. Wood signed a 1-year deal for a lowly $1.75 million. The contract is loaded with incentives, so if Wood stays healthy and produces, he'll make a good deal more money. This is a very smart move for the Cubs; they need depth in their pitching staff without spending tens of millions on it. If all goes well, Wood could step in as a cheap relief ace and help the team big-time. If not, then the Cubs are only out $1.75 million, which is an utterly reasonable figure worth gambling on.
• In a move right out of the Jim Hendry playbook, the Cubs re-signed Henry Blanco to a two-year contract with -- get this -- an option for 2009. Now, you may wonder what 35-year-old backup catcher deserves a 2-year contract worth $5.25 million? The answer is, ya got me. There are about a dozen solid defensive catchers who hit no worse than Blanco who can be had for half a million dollars. And most of them are younger than Blanco, who is nearing the point of no return for catchers. Vintage Jim Hendry: overspending on useless part-time players while ignoring the team's real problems. I guarantee you that Hendry will sign some relief pitcher to a free agent deal, despite the fact that the Cubs need another relief pitcher like I need to gain another 10 pounds. But he does it every year.
• The Mets traded relief pitchers Royce Ring and Heath Bell to the San Diego Padres for outfielder Ben Johnson and relief pitcher Jon Adkins. I really like this deal for the Mets. In Johnson they have someone who could step in and start in both center field and right field and could end up as an offensive asset. If not, then he's a very valuable bench player. Adkins is a good relief pitcher who isn't completely reliable, but isn't very expensive either.
  I don't really understand this move by the Padres, since they need Johnson in their outfield even more than the Mets do. As of right now, the Padres don't have a left fielder at all, and the rest of their outfield is Mike Cameron and Brian Giles, and neither of them are going to play all 162 games. The Padres seem high on Bell as a reliever, but it would seem to me that settling the outfield would be a bigger priority. Again, it's possible that Kevin Towers sees something in these two that I don't. But it's also true that I stopped giving Towers the benefit of the doubt a couple years ago.
• The Cardinals signed Scott Spiezio to a 2-year contract worth $4.5 million. Remember when I spoke about how much teams overvalue useless role players on World Championship teams? This is Exhibit A: Spiezio lucked into a job with the World Champions, which somehow convinced someone that he was actually a worthwhile baseball player to have around. But Spiezio's a 34-year-old with limited defensive value on a team where he will likely just sit on the bench and fill in for Scott Rolen. He's not a true utility infielder, and he's not nearly as good a hitter as people think, making me wonder why someone would waste roster space (and good money) on a marginal player entering a significant decline. Everyone remembers how well Spiezio hit for the Cards in 2006. But do you remember the colossal flop he was in Seattle, where he hit 215/288/346 in 2004 (112 games) and 064/137/149 in 2005 (29 games)? Will the real Scott Spiezio please stand up?
• And on the exact same subject, the Tigers re-signed Sean Casey to a 1-year contract to return as their starting first baseman. I can't imagine how much LSD you would have to take to look at Sean Casey and see a major league first baseman. I've seen Pink Floyd movies that make more sense than this contract. Casey is an unathletic schlub who's been living off of a false reputation for years now. The 32-year-old Casey is a runner of the Mo Vaughn/Ernie Lombardi model, meaning that it's not really accurate to use "run" as the descriptor. He's a liability at first base and hit 272/336/388 last year, making one wonder exactly what it is that could convince someone that he has talent. He is a left-handed hitter, and the Tigers need one of those. Good -- so's my Aunt Sylvia. And she can run the 100-meters faster than Casey.
  Uggh.
• The Toronto Blue Jays signed a two-year deal with Frank Thomas for $18 million. The Thomas deal, like the contract extension the Tigers gave to Gary Sheffield (2 years, $28 million) is troubling. Thomas' 2006 was not a career year in the traditional sense; Thomas is every bit as good as he hit last year. But it may have been a career year in terms of health. Thomas turns 39 next May, and has played only 3 full seasons over the past 6 years. And at his age, he's only going to get worse. The Jays are paying Thomas to hit just as well as he did last year for two more years, and I just don't think that's a realistic gamble. It also gives the Jays yet another player on the wrong end of the defensive spectrum; they've got corner outfielders, corner infielders, and DHs by the score, and yet they have no catcher and their middle infield absolutely sucks. I don't fault J.P. Riccardi for spending money, but the people he chooses to spend it on are sometimes rather suspect.
  The Sheffield deal, by the way, is just stupid. Sheffield is just a few months younger than Thomas, is also coming off of injury troubles, and is getting $14 million a year. This is silly, absurd, and wretched, really. The odds of this deal turning out well for the Tigers are remote; if Sheffield hit like his old self for even one-and-a-half seasons, it could be considered a good contract. But that's a lot to ask of a 38-year-old with nagging wrist injuries. And the potential risk at the back end of the contract ($14 million at age 40) is a much bigger potential loss than the front end is a potential benefit.
• The Phillies signed Wes Helms to a two-year deal to fill in as their third baseman. This is a really silly deal. Helms hasn't played as a regular since 2003, because he can't hit right-handed pitching (career 263/316/431). That's a major handicap for any everyday player, especially one who isn't exactly Manny Ramirez against lefties (280/362/484 career). The Phils were likely blinded by Helms' 2006 with Florida, where he hit 329/390/575 in 240 ABs. It makes him look like a star, but what this hides is that Helms played almost exclusively against lefties, which fattened up his numbers. He was used well in Florida; if he's an everyday third baseman in Philadelphia, he will not be used well.
• The Reds signed shortstop Alex Gonzalez to a 3-year, $14 million deal. I'm at a loss to explain this; I guess the Reds just want to corner the market on players they don't need. The Reds are giving significant money (for 3 years!) to a decent defender who can't hit well enough to play every day. He's an improvement over Juan Castro, but not a $14-million impr0vement. This would also scratch plans to move Brandon Phillips to short and put Ryan Freel at second. So now Freel is once again a player without a position, and the Reds seem gloriously incompetent at getting the right 9 guys in the right 9 spots on the diamond.
• Reports are that the Mets are close to signing free agent Moises Alou. Alou, who is 40, would likely get a 1-year deal worth $8 or 9 million, with an option for 2008. This really complicates things in the Mets outfield, as it leaves Lastings Milledge out to dry (or out to trade, more likely) and puts Ben Johnson on the bench most of the time. That said, Alou is still a very potent hitter. While his playing time is limited by his age (he averaged 110 games a year his two seasons with the Giants), he's still a worthwhile pickup, without a doubt. The one-year contract is ideal due to his age, and I'm surprised that in this bull market for players Alou wasn't able to find comparable money with a second year guaranteed. This may jumble things up in the Mets' outfield, but it should be a good fix for 2007.
• On the managerial front, the Nationals have indeed hired veteran minor league manager and longtime coach Manny Acta. Despite his experience in the minors (and managing the Dominican team in the WBC), Acta will be the youngest manager in the majors, at age 37. He sounds very much like an easy-going player's manager, but I'm more impressed with the fact that he has a solid minor league track record and experience coaching.
• The Oakland A's hired bench coach Bob Geren to fill their managerial vacancy. Geren had served as bench coach under Ken Macha and had been friends with GM Billy Beane for years. In Oakland, the job description really reads "must be able to work with Billy Beane," and we'll see whether Geren can handle that task.
• Speaking of Oakland, the A's appear to be front-runners in the chase for free agent Barry Bonds. Talks with the Giants have broken down, and since incumbent DH Frank Thomas is gone to Toronto, the A's have apparently set their sights on Bonds. It would be a shrewd move to keep Bonds in the Bay Area, the one part of the country where he is still popular, and it would also be a coup to see him break Hank Aaron's record in an A's uniform. More importantly, Bonds is still a very potent hitter and is worth spending some money on. Going to the AL as a DH would keep Bonds in the lineup more often and increase his chances to break Aaron's record. It would also give the A's the big impact bat that they desperately need.
• Right now, that's all that is cooking in the majors. It finally emerged that the Red Sox' bid for Japanese pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka was an incredible $51 million. This was the fee they paid for the rights to negotiate a new contract to pay him even more money. While Matsuzaka projects to be a true ace, it's impossible to fathom how he could make a true return on such an investment.
• Third baseman Akinori Iwamura's posting process is over; the highest bid was by (surprise) the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. I haven't yet learned how much the bid was for, but it's a big surprise regardless. On one hand, I admire the D-Rays' attempt to take a good risk. On the other hand, I'm not sure they're in any position to take such a risk, as Iwamura alone won't make them a contender. Not only that, but the team's real weakness is pitching, not hitting, and they've already got a zillion candidates for the infield positions. We'll see how this turns out.

That's all for now, but I will, of course, keep you posted. The postseason awards have produced no real surprises or upsets as of yet. I don't agree with all of the awards, but they've all been at least reasonable choices. The MVPs will be announced over the next two days, and then we'll see how smart these voters really are.