A.L. East Off-Season: Team by Team

Baltimore Orioles

Dec. 9:  Orioles trade Chris Ray and a PTBNL (Ben Snyder) to the Rangers for Kevin Millwood and cash.
Are 75 wins really that much better than 70?  I’m not being sarcastic; I really wonder.  How much difference does it make having Millwood on the roster?  Does it help season ticket sales that much?  Is he really going to tutor the young pitchers enough to make it worthwhile?  Or is he there to take the pressure off of them?  If so, is that really practical, or is it just another one of those things people say?  Is that enough rhetorical questions for ya?

Dec. 18:  Orioles sign Mike Gonzalez to a two-year contract worth $12 MM.
I’m much more skeptical of this than I am of the Millwood deal.  Does a fourth-place team really need a B-level closer?  The team’s record with free agents relievers is discouraging.

When a Six-Run Inning Isn't the Pitcher's Fault

In Saturday's game versus the Rays, Jon Lester got off to a pretty good start. After giving up a two-run homer to Evan Longoria in the 1st, Lester regained his form and threw three scoreless innings. Until the 5th inning, that is, when everything fell apart. When the bleeding stopped, the Rays had scored six runs and had taken an 8-1 lead. The funny thing is, those six runs weren't really Lester's fault.
How can a pitcher give up six runs and not take most or all of the blame? You have to fault the defense, right? Nope, not their fault either. The Sox didn't commit an error in the inning, and they only made one little mistake that could be called a defensive "miscue". If not the defense, then, who was responsible for those six runs?
Luck.

2009 AL East Preview

The time had come for a change in Yankee-ville, and the Bronx Bombers were more than ready to seize the day. They started out by signing ace starter CC Sabathia (7 yrs., $161 MM) and strikeout master A.J. Burnett (5 yrs., $82.5 MM). And to bolster their offense, they brought in 28-year-old Mark Teixeira (8 yrs., $180 MM) to play first. The changes gave the Yankees a huge boost and put the spotlight on them as the team to beat in the AL East.
But the story isn't that simple. The Rays are still there, and while they may be destined to take a step back from the 2008 brilliance, that's no guarantee. The Red Sox spent the off-season adding spare parts like Josh Bard, John Smoltz and Ramon Ramirez, but they still feel confident that their core producers can compete with anyone, rich or poor.
It's tough to choose a winner out of three significant contenders. But here's how I see it happening ...

2009 Prediction
1st — New York Yankees
2nd — Boston Red Sox
3rd — Tampa Bay Rays
4th — Toronto Blue Jays
5th — Baltimore Orioles

New York Yankees
Not only have the Yankees added a significant upgrade at three positions (two starters and a first baseman), they also have a lot of room for improvement from within.

2008 AL East in Review

Baltimore Orioles

W-L: 68-93 (Last in AL East)

pW-pL: 73-88

Payroll: $67,196,246 (10th in AL)

R/G: 4.86 (8th in AL)

ERA: 5.15 (13th in AL)

DER: .687 (7th in AL)

Team MVPs: Nick Markakis, Brian Roberts, Aubrey Huff

A Drag on the Payroll: Ramon Hernandez (257/308/406, $7.5 MM), Jay Payton (243/291/346, $5 MM), Danys Baez (Did Not Pitch, $4.5 MM), Jamie Walker (6.87 ERA, 38 IP, $4.5 MM)

What Went Right: The Erik Bedard trade worked out pretty well. Adam Jones is still looking quite raw as an athlete, but even still, you know the Mariners would like that one back. Both Aubrey Huff (304/360/552) and Melvin Mora (285/342/483) experienced strong bounceback seasons in their 30's. There hasn't been a complete turnaround, but there's enough happiness here to sustain some legitimate optimism.

World Series Predictions

Rays .vs. Phillies

Offense
The Phillies' offense is centered around a core group of star hitters (Utley, Howard, and Burrell) with a strong 1-2 leadoff tandem in Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino. It's a group that was remarkably productive against two very tough pitching staffs in the NLDS and NLCS. Their weakness is lineup depth; the bottom of the lineup, with the exception of Jayson Werth, if he's not batting second, is very poor. Carlos Ruiz is a good catcher, and Pedro Feliz is a good-glove third baseman, but both are barely above replacement level offensively.
The Rays have a somewhat different problem. They don't have superstar power like the Phillies do (although that's arguable, considering what Longoria and Upton are doing), but they have a much greater depth. The Rays don't often give up on offense from a lineup spot, except for shortstop Jason Bartlett.
Before the postseason, I think I would have given the edge to the Phillies. But now I'm not as certain. The Rays have really done a good job of scoring runs. Even if they don't keep setting home run records, they've got a top-notch offense with star-quality production. And here's what really gives them the edge:

Bench/DH
If the Rays start Rocco Baldelli in right, that leaves either Cliff Floyd, Gabe Gross, or Jonny Gomes as DH. The Phillies don't have anyone remotely comparable to counter with. Their best bet would be Matt Stairs, who would do well against righties but would need a platoon partner (one the Phils don't have) against lefties. And postseason heroics aside, Stairs isn't as good as Cliff Floyd. This gives the Rays a much better set of options, especially in the later innings, and I think it's what gives them the edge on offense.

Starting Pitching

ALCS Preview

ALCS: Red Sox .vs. Rays

Offense

During the season, the Sox ranked 2nd in the AL with a .279 Equivalent Average (EqA). But the Rays were right behind them in 3rd place at .274.
Both teams have strong offensive attacks, but they'll also be working without some key producers. The Red Sox are dealing with a gimpy J.D. Drew and will be without Mike Lowell. Drew's replacement is either Coco Crisp or Mark Kotsay, which is a step down, but not too bad. The worst thing is that with Lowell gone, the Sox have been playing Kevin Youkilis at third and Kotsay at first. I know they don't have a wealth of options, but "Mark Kotsay, first baseman" doesn't give me a lot of confidence.
The Rays, too, will be running at less than 100%. Carl Crawford has just come back from injury, and although he appears to be in good shape, it's hard to tell so soon. The same could be said of B.J. Upton, although Upton acquitted himself pretty darn well in the division series.
Overall, I still have to give the edge to the Sox, since their best hitters (Youkilis, Pedroia, Bay, Ortiz) are better than the Rays' best (Pena, Longoria, Upton, Navarro). They also have greater depth and a better bench; few teams could handle a hobbled J.D. Drew and a hobbled Mike Lowell so well.

Starting Pitching

AL East Preview

Baltimore Orioles
2007 W-L Record: 69-93
2007 pW-pL Record: 71-91
Strengths: Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, Brian Roberts**-- if they don't trade him
Weaknesses: Pitching, Pitching, Pitching ... and the rest of the offense
Biggest Change from '07: Bye-Bye Bedard
One Reason:
One reason the Orioles will win in '07 is an act of God.

I had a steak once that was non-tendered ...

• The Cubs re-signed Kerry Wood to a one-year contract for $4.2 million. Rumor has it that Wood turned down multi-year offers from other teams to take the Cubs' offer. I see this as a good move for Chicago. Upon this announcement, the word was that the Cubs would move erstwhile closer Ryan Dempster back into the rotation and make Wood their closer. I'd lean more toward Carlos Marmol as closer, but then the Cubs could do what they did last year and have Marmol pitch a lot of high-leverage innings in the 7th and 8th and leave Wood the plum job of closer. That way, even if Wood does get injured, it won't affect Marmol's ability to handle the tough stuff.
  The Cubs also won the bidding for Japanese outfielder Kosuke Fukudome. Fukudome's contract is for 4 years and $48 mil. -- about Hideki Matsui money. That seems pretty reasonable to me in today's market -- according to Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA system, Fukudome should manage to hit about 300/400/500 with the Cubs. Essentially, he's Bobby Abreu. The most important thing is that high OBP; Fukudome takes a lot of pitches and works the count for walks, which makes him especially valuable to the Cubs, who don't have anybody else (except maybe Derrek Lee) who does that. I agree that with the Fukudome signing, the Cubs now look like the favorites in the NL Central.
• Blockbuster trade #1: the Twins sent Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, and Eduardo Morlan to the Rays for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, and Jason Pridie. It's not often that two big prospects get swapped for each other; especially when one (Garza) is a pitcher and another (Young) is a hitter.
  

State of the MLB Union . . . AL East

If I may ...

• It looks like Cecil Cooper will stay on as Astros manager after this season, but the position of GM remains open for the moment. I have to say, if Astros owner Drayton McLane wanted to create some scapegoats by getting rid of Phil Garner and Tim Purpura, the move has backfired. Since the firings took place, McLane himself has been the one to get flamed in the media, and very few people are optimistic about the chances of the next GM to serve under the meddlesome McLane.
• It's getting to be quite an exciting time for a baseball fan, as competitive balance rages on, especially in the NL, where nobody's sure of anything anymore. So hold on to your uniforms, and let's get started.

The AL East has been exciting, but as Rob Neyer pointed out today, it's an excitement that doesn't extend far beyond the northeast. Both the Red Sox and Yankees have really strong odds of making the postseason, so the only real drama is who wins the division and who wins the Wild Card. So unless you're a diehard fan of one of these teams, the excitement has to be tempered.
Still, there's a lot of good baseball to play, and there are still some very curious storylines to be played out in Baltimore, Toronto, and Tampa Bay.
Boston Red Sox (80-55)
My Prediction: 91-71
On Current Pace: 96-66

2007 American League Predictions

AL EAST:
New York Yankees (96-66) 94-98 win range
Boston Red Sox (91-71) 89-93 win range
Toronto Blue Jays (88-74) 86-90 win range
Baltimore Orioles (75-87) 73-77 win range
Tampa Bay Devil Rays (69-93) 67-71 win range

AL CENTRAL:
Cleveland Indians (94-68) 92-96 win range
*Minnesota Twins (93-69) 91-95 win range
Detroit Tigers (90-72) 88-92 win range
Chicago White Sox (88-74) 86-90 win range
Kansas City Royals (63-99) 61-65 win range

AL WEST:
Los Angeles Angels (94-68) 92-96 win range
Oakland Athletics (92-70) 90-94 win range
Texas Rangers (84-78) 82-86 win range
Seattle Mariners (72-90) 70-74 win range

AL MVP: Travis Hafner, Indians

AL CY YOUNG: Johan Santana, Twins

AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Alex Gordon, Royals

ALCS: Yankees over Indians

WS: Yankees over Dodgers

AL EAST

NEW YORK YANKEES

2006 W-L Record: 97-65 (1st)

2006 pW-pL Record: 95-67

2007 Projection: 96-66

Strengths: Offense, disposable cash

Weaknesses: Rotation star quality; bullpen depth; first base

Biggest Change from '06: Kei Igawa

One Reason:
One reason the Yankees will win in '07 is the same reason they've won for years: a strong offense supports a merely capable pitching staff.
One reason the Yankees will lose in '07 is that their lineup isn't as strong as it looks. Everyone's getting older, and replacing Gary Sheffield with Doug Mientkiewicz is pretty significant. The same could be said of their rotation, with questions surrounding Andy Pettite, Chien-Ming Wang, and Kei Igawa, not to mention whomever fills in at 5th starter until Phillip Hughes comes up. Switching out Randy Johnson for Igawa at least gives them fewer age-related issues.

Notes:

The Yankees are, as always, strong favorites to reach October. For all the questions and concerns there are surrounding the Yankees, we have to remember that the Yanks have similar issues every season for a while now and have still managed to weather the storm and make the postseason. They've got the money, they've got Phillip Hughes, and they've got a much better-run front office with Brian Cashman calling the shots. It will be a tighter race than it was last year, but I think the Bombers still have the edge.

BOSTON RED SOX

2006 W-L Record: 86-76 (3rd)
2006 pW-pL Record: 81-81
2007 Projection: 95-67
Strengths: Impact hiters, pitching depth, Dice-K
Weaknesses: Bullpen, offensive depth
Biggest Change from '06: Dice-K
One Reason:
One Reason the BoSox will win in '07 is that they've got the impact hitters and the impact pitchers. The supporting cast may not be what it was in 2004, but they've got Manny & Papi in the lineup and Schilling-Matsuzaka-Papelbon-Beckett in the rotation.

One Reason the BoSox will lose in '07 is because their supporting cast really is an issue. The Sox' batting order is strong 1-6 (Lugo, Youkilis, Papi, Manny, Drew, Lowell), but they've got big questions surrounding Jason Varitek, Coco Crisp, and Dustin Pedroia. If those three come through, then the Sox could have the best offense in the league. But if even two of them come up empty, then the Sox will struggle like they did down the stretch last year. The same is true in the bullpen, where Joel Pineiro (I'm still convinced this is a crazy plan) is anchoring a less-than-stellar lot.
Notes:

(If you read my NL entry and wonder what happened to my prediction that the Sox would win the Series, I changed my mind when I started preparing this entry. Ask me again tomorrow and I may change my mind, but with Boston's bullpen troubles and lineup holes, I don't think they can beat out the Twins, White Sox, A's and maybe even Tigers).

Just like last year, the Sox are a volatile team. If everything goes right, from Matsuzaka's debut to Schilling's conditioning, to Beckett's homers, to Papelbon's transition, to Drew's health, to Crisp's recovery, to Pedroia's debut, to Pineiro's role change, then the Sox are contenders. But that's a whole lot of conditions to meet, and the Sox will have to meet nearly all of them to win the Wild Card.
That 2006 Pythagorean record scares me. Have the Sox really added 15 true wins this offseason?

TORONTO BLUE JAYS

2006 W-L Record: 87-75 (2nd)
2006 pW-pL Record: 86-76
2007 Projection: 88-74
Strengths: Star pitchers, middle of the order
Weaknesses: Back of rotation, middle infield
Biggest Change from '06: Frank Thomas
One Reason:

One Reason the Jays will win in '07 is that they keep anything big from going wrong. Their offense looks strong, and while they're getting zero production from the middle infield, they should be pretty potent none the less, especially when Adam Lind gets a full-time job. Their rotation isn't very impressive after Halladay and Burnett, but the Jays have several guys (Chacin, Thomson, Ohka) who can at least keep the team in games. The Blue Jays may survive not because they're better than the other teams, but because they have much less potential to suck.

One Reason the Jays will lose in '07 is that they're in the wrong league. It used to be that they were in the wrong division, but with the ascension of the AL Central and the A's-Angels twin towers out west, the Jays aren't going to catch any breaks when it comes to reaching the postseason. It's highly unlikely that the Jays will be the best team in their division, which means they're going to have to compete against four or five other teams in the Wild Card race who are just as good and probably better.
Notes:

The Jays did finish second last year and show promising improvement that's supported by the Pythagorean numbers. It wouldn't be a terrific surprise if they won 95 games, but they're much less likely to do it than most teams in the race.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES:

2006 W-L Record: 70-92 (4th)
2006 pW-pL Record: 69-93
2007 Projection: 75-87
Strengths: Young Pitching, Nick Markakis, Miguel Tejada
Weaknesses: Everything else
Biggest Change from '06: A full season of Nick Markakis
One Reason:
One Reason the Orioles will win in '07 is they go see the opera "Faust" and get an idea.

One Reason the Orioles will lose in '07 . . . one reason?
Notes:

It's not the like the Orioles aren't doing anything right. They've graduated some quality arms to the big leagues and have an impact player in right fielder Nick Markakis. But after Tejada, Brian Roberts and Ramon Hernandez, the lineup is pretty drab. Plus there are no guarantees about the potency of their young pitchers, especially Daniel Cabrera. Their farm system has some gems at the lower levels but no one ready to fill holes in the big leagues. There's no reason to expect the Orioles to contend in the near future.

TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS

2006 W-L Record: 61-101
2006 pW-pL Record: 65-97
2007 Projection: 69-93
Strengths: Young hitters, farm system
Weaknesses: Pitching staff, mismanagement of prospects, general sucktitude
Biggest Change from '06: (Hopefully) Getting B.J. Upton and Delmon Young in the majors
One Reason:
One Reason the Rays will win in '07 is that their offensive prospects step in and add potency to a depressingly bad lineup. Even with Carl Crawford and a healthy Rocco Baldelli, the '06 Rays finished a distant last in runs scored (4.25 R/G) in the AL. There's a long way to go before they can become a real threat, but they've got the top-notch talent (Upton, Young, Akinori Iwamura) to make a significant impact right away.

One Reason the Rays will lose in '07 is that their pitching staff is equally awful, but with little prospect for improvement. The Rays finished 12th out of 14 AL teams in runs allowed last year (5.28 RA/G). Part of that is due to a bad defense, yes, but even so, there are no saviors in the farm system to help them out here. There is some hope, but nothing like a B.J. Upton or Delmon Young.
Notes:

Even if the Rays' offense skyrockets up to 4th or 5th place in the league, their pitching is still so bad that it wouldn't guarantee them more than 80 wins or so. The 2007 version of the Devil Rays could be the best ever for the franchise, but that standard is so woefully low that it's hard to get excited about.

Back later with the AL Central.

He deserved this.

Looking Ahead: Tampa Bay Devil Rays

2006 W-L Record: 61-101
2006 pW-pL Record: 65-97
Runs Scored: 689 (14th of 14 -- dead last)
Runs Allowed: 856 (12th of 14)
Free Agents: Travis Lee

2007 Projected Lineup:
1B -- Ty Wigginton?
2B -- Jorge Cantu
SS -- Ben Zobrist?
3B -- B.J. Upton
LF -- Carl Crawford
CF -- Rocco Baldelli
RF -- Delmon Young/Elijah Dukes
C -- Dioner Navarro
DH -- Jonny Gomes

2007 Proj. Rotation:
Scott Kazmir
Jamie Shields
Tim Corcoran
Jae Seo
Jason Hammel/Casey Fossum

2007 Proj. Closer: Juan Salas?

Offense/Defense:
There is some reason for optimism in Tampa Bay and most of it centers around the offense. The Rays are getting a pretty good bunch of players arriving from the minors in the next couple years. The trouble will be finding someplace for them all to play.
Let's start with the mainstays: Carl Crawford, left fielder. Crawford isn't your average left fielder; his skill set reads more like that of a center fielder -- stolen bases, triples, speed -- but he still makes it work. His high batting average and skill set often cause him to get overrated, but you could do a lot worse than have Crawford out there. He's a career 292/326/434 hitter, and while that's not exactly inspiring, he is still just 25 years old and appears to be developing more power (his HR have increased every year of his career).
Rocco Baldelli mans center field. Baldelli came up in center field and made a splash with a colorful name and good defense, despite hitting 289/329/451 -- not exactly the numbers of your ideal Sports Illustrated cover model. But Baldelli was playing for a bad team, so he got the glory. He only did moderately better in 2005, and his glory was mostly dissipated by an injury that took away his 2005 season and limited his 2006 work. Still, the Rays signed him up to a 3-year, $9 million contract extension, starting with the 2006 season. It's probably a bargain, but it comes with bizarre club options for 2009-2011 totalling $27 million. The Rays are basically gambling an entire 3-year contract on Baldelli's performance in 2007-8. What's more likely is that they made the years optional so that Baldelli could be traded more easily in the future. And from the rumblings I'm hearing, that just might happen.
Either way, the Rays are set with Crawford and Baldelli for 2007, unless either man gets traded. That leaves a couple dozen players to fight over the right field spot.
Jonny Gomes will probably return to playing DH, which is for the best. Gomes had a splashy debut in 2005, hitting 282/372/534. Then he took an odd step back in 2006, hitting 216/325/431. The odd part is the amazing 66-point drop in his batting average. He was able to slightly compensateby doubling his walk rate (from 39 to 61 in comparable plate appearances), but his OBP was still below-average. The Rays would certainly like to see the reliable power source that Gomes was in 2005, but if they don't, at least they've got several guys who could replace him.
Let's start with Delmon Young. Young ravaged the minor leagues, reaching the majors this past season at age 20 and essentially staking out right field for himself. Young has a lot of tools and he makes them work, hitting 328/349/492 in 29 big-league games. Considering this performance, it's tough to see the Rays moving Young out of right field, unless it's to DH. The only real significant obstacle standing between Delmon and superstardom is his temper; he threw a bat an umpire in Triple-A (which was caught on camera) and missed 50 games.
On most teams, Young would be a sure thing for the right fielder's job, but the Rays have several young outfielders pushing toward the majors. The biggest threat is Elijah Dukes. Dukes will be 23 next year and has already murdered Triple-A Durham (293/401/488 last year). Dukes has a great deal of talent and will soon force his way into the lineup somewhere. Unfortunately, he shares Delmon Young's problem of anger management. Unlike Young, whose outburst was a relatively isolated incident, Dukes is already halfway towards attaining full Albert Belle status, with even a domestic violence arrest in his past. The Rays may not want to deal with a younger version of Milton Bradley, but if he keeps hitting like this, they will have no choice.
That should give the D-Rays more than enough outfielders (at least until they trade someone), but then there's the troubling situation of B.J. Upton. Upton proved he was ready to hit in the majors a couple years ago, but hadn't gotten there to stay because of defensive issues. The Rays finally gave in and promoted Upton to the big club to play as a third baseman (he had been embarassing himself in the minors as a shortstop). Upton was still a butcher at third, but that's less harmful than a butcher at shortstop. The much more troubling issue is the regression in his offense. Upton started the year in Triple-A and posted the disappointing line of 269/374/394. That's a step down from his previous performance (303/392/490 in '05), especially in the power department, as his homers and doubles dropped precipitously. This could be written off as the effects of spending three years stagnated in Triple-A, but Upton hit even worse in the majors (240/297/287) with not a hint of power.
There's really no positive way to spin this. It could be just a bad year, but there aren't any obvious indicators of that. The D-Rays will stick with Upton and likely start the year with him on the squad. But after they figure out where to pay him (shortstop? third? second? outfield?), they also need to deal with whatever was plaguing him last year.
If Upton does end up in the infield, that creates a crowded situation there, as well. The competition isn't as stiff as it is in the outfield, but there are still some important decisions to be made, with several young prospects naturally waiting in the wings.
If Upton does play third, that likely means that Ty Wigginton will play first. With the departure of Travis Lee to free agency (thank God), the D-Rays would be well-advised to replace him with someone who's actually, you know, better. Wigginton lucked into a fine 2006 (275/330/498), but that just doesn't square with his career line of 265/325/446. He's not going to kill you, but he'd be better served as a temporary solution. The only other clear option is Wes Bankston, who split 2006 between Double-A and Triple-A with mediocre offense.
But the Rays have a trump card in Japanese third baseman Akinori Iwamura. Apparently, they weren't impressed with the prospect of playing Wigginton everyday and would like to shift Upton. He would need to move if they actually sign Iwamura, since the Japanese player has a solid defensive reputation. The Rays won the bidding process and now just need to sign him.
I'm very skeptical that the Rays would make such a financial commitment to a player who's not filling a vital hole -- especially since that money could be better spent elsewhere, and without further crowding the lineup. It will be an especially big mess if Iwamura doesn't work out. But I'll at least wait to see the final contract figures (if they do sign him) before passing a sweeping judgment.
The middle infield picture is muddy, especially if Upton is in the mix somewhere. The only definite is Jorge Cantu. Cantu is a reliable power source, and an equally reliable source of strikeouts and dismal defense. If he can simply hold his own defensively and keep swatting home runs, he could have some value as a poor man's Jose Valentin.
The favorite for the shortstop job is Ben Zobrist. The Rays wisely nabbed Zobrist from the Houston Astros, where he had been getting on base like a madman all through their minor league system. Zobrist has no power, but very well be an asset as a leadoff man if he can keep hitting .300 and drawing lots of walks. He hasn't yet succeeded in the majors, so I may be a bit premature here, but he's a pretty good option for a low-budget team.
Behind Zobrist, the Rays have Reid Brignac. Brignac has only played 28 games above Class A but has hit quite well for his position. He's still a year or two away from the majors and may not end up as a shortstop, but he's some insurance. If the Rays do go with Zobrist, they don't have to commit to anything long-term.
Behind the plate, the Rays have still more decisions to make. Former Dodger Dioner Navarro, nabbed in a steal of a trade this past summer, should start off the season as the Rays' regular. Navarro has a solid prospect pedigree and has shown off well with the Dodgers, although his Tampa Bay debut was dismal (244/316/342). Still, he's young, cheap, and major-league ready, and the Rays have learned not to take that for granted.
Even though Navarro should have the starting catcher's job sealed up, look for some pressure from Shawn Riggans. Young Riggans showed off great hitting in the minors, but health problems had prevented him from capitalizing on his success. Riggans finally broke through in 2006, hitting a fine 293/341/444 in Durham before breaking through to the big club. He's no sure thing, especially considering he's already 26, but he's a nice emergency starter in case Navarro doesn't work out.

We really can't be too optimistic -- this is a team that finished last in the AL in offense by a long shot last year, so there's a long way to go before they're even average. But there is more reason for hope now than ever; the D-Rays have never really had this much homegrown talent.
But as you can see, the problem with the Devil Ray offense isn't that they lack good players -- it's that they just can't fit them all in a 9-man lineup. That's mainly because the previous administration was able to hoard top-level draft picks without making serious long-term plans for them. Hopefully, this will be changing -- as evidenced by the new regime's willingness to trade popular players Baldelli and Crawford. It's nice to have this much talent, but the only point in developing excess players is to use them as either emergency backups or trade bait. Considering the quality of the players in question, a backup role isn't really applicable. So if used right, some of these guys can be traded to bring back some well-needed pitching.

Pitching:
This is the ugly part, and the part that isn't likely to get much better in 2007. The team is finally getting some good pitching prospects into the upper minors -- which is cause for celebration in this organization -- but we should reserve our praise for when they actually reach the majors. There's reason to think that they will start to arrive in 2007 -- and some already have -- but there's little reason to expect the Tampa Bay pitching staff to approach the average this year or next.
Scott Kazmir has already established himself as a top-notch young pitcher and will be the Rays' ace for the near future. It won't take him long to break all the records for a Tampa Bay starting pitcher (if he already hasn't), and the only real concern the D-Rays have is keeping him healthy.
Behind Kazmir is a steep drop-off to the incoming prospects and outgoing placeholders. The Rays' rotation has exemplified the replacement level for years now, with borderline pitchers like Rob Bell and Doug Waechter carrying the banner proudly. Luckily, both Bell and Waechter are gone, and the Rays have replaced them with people who are better, some of whom actually with the chance to improve!
The Rays' #2 will likely be Jamie Shields. Shields has had mixed success in the minors, but the 25-year-old's strikeout rates have always been above-average. He posted a 4.84 ERA in 21 big-league starts last year. And yes, that does make him the second-best starter on the team.
Behind him is Jae Seo, a 5th starter stretched into #3 duty. There's also Tim Corcoran, whom they haven't yet realized is just the latest Bell/Waechter/Mark Hendrickson incarnation. They have, however, figured out all those things about Casey Fossum, who will be lucky to make the rotation at all.
Jason Hammel promises to be a bright spot. This 24-year-old has made some good showings in the minors and made it to the big club last year. He's not a star nor is he a sure thing, but he's an improvement over Fossum and Seth McClung.
There are some other pitchers in the system that bear watching (such as Andy Sonnanstine), but they won't likely make an impact on the rotation next year.

The Tampa Bay bullpen is the term for all of the pitchers not in the starting rotation. In the past, the Rays have actually managed to put together some decent bullpens, although I'm not optimistic about their future in that regard.
I note Juan Salas as the team's closer for the simple reason that they don't have anyone else and haven't publicly stated yet who will fill the role next season. Salas seems -- at least to me -- like a good choice. Salas has pitched quite well with killer strikeout rates as a reliever in the minors and has experience closing. He's also been stingy with the walk and the home run and, at age 25, the Rays might just have a sure-fire homegrown closer on their hands. Let's hope they don't repeat last year's mistake and start out the season with Dan Miceli in the role.
Beyond Salas, there aren't a lot of rookies ready to make it to the big-league bullpen, which is sad, considering that the bar has been set so low. The Rays tried to slog through 2006 with 30-year-old replacement players filling out the 'pen (Brian Meadows, Tyler Walker), and it worked about as well as you'd guess. They did get a good season from 26-year-old Ruddy Lugo (3.81 ERA), but his BB:K ratio isn't exactly promising (37:48 in 85 innings). If the Tampa Bay bullpen is anything but one of the worst in baseball next year it will either be through the ascension of young players like Salas or divine intervention.

Offseason Game Plan:
There's not a lot the Rays can -- or should -- do this off-season. As I've said, their problem isn't so much a lack of personnel rather than a glut, especially in the outfield. The only free agents the Devil Rays can afford are so bad as to be nothing but a waste of space blocking a better, younger player.
What the Rays should look into is trading either Crawford or Baldelli. My first impression is that they should trade whomever will return good pitching talent (that the Rays will control for some years). Crawford is the better of the two, but he's also amazingly overrated, and so might bring back much more than he actually merits. He's also, as a left fielder, easily replaced from within. Baldelli is the worse player, but he does play a more valuable defensive position (and well), and isn't getting paid as much as Crawford. I don't know -- I think the Rays should just shop both men and take the best deal they can get.
There isn't a lot the Rays can do with their pitching staff but pray. They weren't the worst-pitching team in baseball last year, so they've at least got something to build on. If they do look to the free agent market, target low-risk guys like Bruce Chen who could come in and eat innings and, if you're lucky, be about average. But limit your liability -- and don't jeopardize the future. That above all should be your mantra.