The Anticlimax

The Boston Red Sox swept the Colorado Rockies in 4 games, their second series sweep in past the 4 years. Now the question is what will happen in Boston now that their underdog status is dead and gone. What will replace it? How will the historic behaviors and attitudes of New England sports fans change now that the central narrative of their favorite baseball team has been rendered obsolete?
I think the glory days of Boston fandom (somewhere between 2003 and the present) are over and done. As the Red Sox become the new Yankees, their nationwide fanbase, built upon the David .vs. Goliath myth, will begin to fade. The fire of the core New England fanbase, on the other hand, may subside somewhat, but will not be going away anytime soon. But the Red Sox' national (and international) following may be in jeopardy. As the central narrative of the team changes, the myth/legend that drew so many nationwide fans in the first place will disappear. This may not be the end of the world, but it may be bad news for the team's revenues, which may be cresting after several years of obscene success.
I'm not on the ground in New England to measure the energy of the Red Sox nation firsthand. But I wonder if the truly magical allure of the Red Sox -- which has existed in some form for 50 years, give or take -- has reached its peak. While there is every reason to believe that the Red Sox will be a juggernaut franchise for years to come, I think it's worth noting that in the future, our image of the Red Sox will always be different. And it didn't start when they reversed the curse in 2004 -- it started when they slowly and methodically demolished a lesser team in October. That, my friends, is what the Yankees do, and if the Sox continue to perform like this in October (and there's every reason to believe that they will), they will indeed be the New Yankees.

In other news:

"Patience"

Reflecting on the Sox' annihilation of the Rockies, here's a very insightful quote from Red Sox hitting coach Dave Magadan (excerpted from Jayson Stark's column about the game):

"For me, patience is not necessarily walking," said Magadan. "Patience at the plate is waiting for your pitch to hit. And the byproduct of that can be a walk. But a lot of times, you're going to hit in a lot of hitters' counts. These guys have a real good idea of what they're looking for, and they will be stubborn and wait till they get that pitch.
"They're going to make the pitcher throw three tough pitches to get them out. And when you've got to make three quality pitchers to get hitters out, it's tough to grind and get through the lineup. Every guy is seeing five, six, seven, eight pitches. And then boom ... one swing of the bat. It makes it tough."

World Series preview

I know, I know -- it's unfair to send in your World Series predictions after Game 1; especially when Game 1 is an absolute rout. We were following the game during breaks at rehearsal, and at one point, Boston was up 4-1. The cast is mostly rooting for the Rockies, and while I don't have an active rooting interest, I'm backing Boston, since I think they're the better team (more on this later). One of the Colorado fans bet that the Rockies would tie it up in the later innings. I looked right at him and said, "I'll bet that Boston scores 10." They scored 13, actually, and romped to a 13-1 victory.
Jeff Francis took the loss and just judging from the box score, it was a typical Boston dismantling. They worked him to 100 pitches by the 5th inning and got 6 runs off of him. Then they got to knock around the Rockies' bullpen and soften it up for future games. Josh Beckett, on the other hand, gets treated with kid gloves so that he'll be fresh as a daisy in Game 5 -- if there is a Game 5.
Which brings me thus:

2007 WORLD SERIES PREDICTIONS:

Starting Pitching

Managers

As some of you may have heard, Joe Torre declined the Yankees' offer of a 1-year deal to return as Yankees manager. The deal, which Torre referred to as an "insult," was for about $5 million, a pretty big pay cut from Torre's estimated $7 million salary in 2007. There were some performances bonuses that could have raised the deal to $8 million, but these were all tied to postseason performance. And there was a possibility of a 2008 option that could vest -- but only if the Yankees won the pennant in 2008. Torre, sensibly, decided not to take a big pay cut and stay in a job his bosses (GM Brian Cashman excepted) don't want him for.

It seems that the Yankees gave Torre such a low-ball offer in an attempt to deflect criticism for his departure. If they had merely fired him, they would be the villains. But if the headline reads, "Torre rejects Yankees' contract offer," then the heat would presumably be on Torre. This kind of thing happens often, where a company doesn't really want to fire someone, so they try to badger them into quitting to save face. Only this particular ploy was unsuccessful. All of the big-time analysts I've heard weigh in on the issue (Peter Gammons, Buster Olney, Tim Kurkjian, Tom Verducci) immediately blamed the Yankees and excoriated them for such a shady move. Any attempt to transfer blame from ownership to Joe Torre has failed horribly.

What will the Yankees do next?

Citybeat response

This wasn't the first time I've locked horns with Cincinnati's Citybeat sports columnist Bill Peterson. Peterson's take on baseball is both old-fashioned and over-simplified, but I felt that he outdid himself in this week's edition of the Cincinnati alternative newsweekly. Peterson offered a flawed, skewed, and misleading defense of the Reds' hiring of Dusty Baker. Now, I often disagree with Peterson, but as I said, I think he outdid himself with inaccuracies and oversimplifications in the article linked above. So I sat down (somewhat fuming) and typed out a letter to the editor at Citybeat in response. (I should note that I have had one of my letters published in Citybeat back in 2004. That too was a response to a Peterson column. There, he stated that the only difference between the Reds and the Cardinals -- well on their way to 105 wins -- were a few relief pitchers. I blew a gasket.)

The Boss has left the building?

• According to a report in the New York Post, George Steinbrenner has essentially given over day-to-day control of the Yankees to his sons, Hank and Hal. After The Boss went public with his displeasure with Joe Torre, there were some questions raised about the true extent of the Boss' decision-making power in the Yankee hierarchy these days. Those questions gained some legitimacy when the Yankees did in fact lose to the Indians, but it did not result in the immediate firing of Joe Torre. Torre may indeed be on the way out, but both sides are in talks right now, which is not what Steinbrenner indicated would happen.
  If Steinbrenner's days as the true power of the Yankees are over, it will indeed be the end of an era. It wasn't always easy, but Steinbrenner's run as principal owner of the Yankees saw the team reemerge as the most successful franchise in sports. He took home 7 World Championships during his tenure as owner. A lot of the team's success may have come in spite of him (for example, Brian Cashman's emphasis on the team's youth movement), but it must be said that Steinbrenner's agressiveness and his embrace of the free agent market (while most teams were still in denial) were instrumental in reestablishing the Yankees brand. The team is in fine shape and will survive the transfer of power, but it's worth noting what a huge effect Steinbrenner had on the New York sports world and especially on the game of baseball.

LCS Predictions

With an improbable win over the Yankees, the Indians move on to their first ALCS since 1998. I came into this game highly suspicious of Paul Byrd, but then my predictions haven't been working out lately, anyhow. Byrd wasn't brilliant, but he kept baseball's best offense to 2 runs in 5 innings and got the win. The Indians, meanwhile, knocked out Chein-Ming Wang early and kept on knocking homers.
When I saw Joe Borowski warming up in the bullpen before the 9th, I groaned and said, "Oh, no!" The announcers referenced the last time Borowski pitched at Yankee Stadium, on April 19, when he blew a save in grand fashion and lost the game on an A-Rod walkoff home run. I remember that one vividly; I was there. I like Chip Caray as an announcer, but right on cue, he talked about how important it was to stay with what brought you to the dance, or some other worn cliche. Borowski is "your guy," and if you don't stay with him, you're sending a message to your team. That may be true, but it's also true that Borowski sucks, is a borderline closer, and is the last guy in the Indians bullpen I would send up to face Jeter, Abreu, and A-Rod. The message Wedge should be sending to his team is, "I want to win this game." You'd think that would go without saying, but not in baseball. Keeping a guy in his defined role is what a manager does, even if it's amazingly destructive to the team's chances of winning. Anyone in the Indians clubhouse who thinks that keeping Joe Borowski happy is more important than winning the ALDS should get their head in the game.

Oopsie

Well, that was quick. Both of my picks to win the NLDS were demolished in 3-0 sweeps, as both the Rockies and the Diamondbacks sealed the deal yesterday, going on to the NLCS. For the Rockies, it's the first postseason series win in franchise history (and an impressive one at that), and for the D-Backs it's a pretty impressive return to glory, having missed the playoffs since 2002. It's prety unique for both halves of the LDS to end up as 3-0 sweeps. The only other time that's happened was in the 1996 NLDS (Braves swept Dodgers, Cards swept Padres) and again in the 1997 ALDS (Braves over Astros, Marlins over Giants). It's never happened in the American League, although this year could be the first. I'll wait until later to do my ALCS/NLCS predictions, but if things keep going the way they are, I won't have to wait long.

Short takes

Well, so far, the NLDS is making me look like a complete fool. I picked the Phillies to win, and now the Rockies have taken a 2-0 lead heading into Coors Field. It looks like Colorado will win the first postseason series in franchise history. Here's a trivia question: Name the 2 other MLB teams that have never won a postseason series? (Answer at the bottom).
And out in Arizona, the D-Backs not only won behind Brandon Webb in Game 1(which was understandable), they've taken an 8-4 lead, knocking Ted Lilly out of the game in Game 2. The Cubs at least will be heading back to Wrigley for the next two games, but still you never want to be down 0-2 in a playoff series. And if they do lose Game 2 (which is in the 6th now), they'll be up a creek, because they'll have to beat Brandon Webb again in Game 5 even if they do win both games in Chicago.
I must admit that I'm amazed at the second-guessing that ensued after Lou Pineilla pulled Carlos Zambrano from Game 1. This is just insanity and misplaced anger; baseball fans should learn to accept a loss without finding people to blame (and boy, is Lou getting roasted).
The move didn't work out, but there's absolutely nothing wrong with it. Zambrano hasn't thrown a lot of pitches, but he is Carlos Freakin' Zambrano; you never know when he's going to lose it and give up some walks and homers (he led the league in bases on balls). Carlos Marmol has been brilliant this year, and he's a guy you can rely on.
I gained a great deal of respect for Lou when I read this snippet of conversation, taken from Rob Neyer's blog:

Playoff Predictions

NLDS

Rockies .vs. Phillies
A lot of this comes down to home-field advantage as the Rockies have played and hit much worse away from Coors Field than at home, even accounting for park effects. The Rockies' offense isn't quite as good as Coors Field makes it look, but by the same token, their pitching isn't as bad, either. The Rockies have much better depth both in the bullpen and in the starting rotation, whereas the Phillies' rotation is Cole Hamels and several guys who shouldn't be pitching in a fly-ball park.

Still, I can't get past the home-field advantage and the Cole Hamels advantage. The Phillies have the best offense in the league, and playing three times in their home park with an ace that the Rockies don't have is enough of an edge for me. I predict a lot of offense, but still some close games where the bullpens play a big part. If the Rockies can keep the Phillies' offense quiet, they might be able to pull one out against the likes of Kyle Kendrick and Jamie Moyer.

Prediction: Phillies in 5

Cubs .vs. Diamondbacks

Rockies 9, Padres 8

Wow.

I don't know if tonight's one-game playoff will go down as one of the most memorable in history, but it should. The Wild Card isn't glamorous, and neither are the Padres and Rockies, but tonight was an incredibly exciting game for a number of reasons.

I must say that I was in rehearsal this evening and didn't join the game until the 8th inning, when it was tied 6-6. Amazingly enough, it stayed tied into the 13th. Both bullpens did a pretty impressive job of keeping the runs off the board. If Heath Bell is an unlikely hero, Matt Herges is even more unlikely, but he threw 3 scoreless innings none the less.
I knew it couldn't go on forever, and when I saw Jorge Julio stroll to the mound in the 13th, I had the feeling that this might be it. Julio, who was as wild as you'd expect, walked Brian Giles and then fell behind Scott Hairston. He then grooved one to Hairston, who knocked it out of the park, giving the Padres an 8-6 lead. The Colorado faithful went silent, and I figured it was over. (The guy who caught the ball actually doubled 0ver in pain when he did, even though it didn't touch his stomach). Julio gave up a single to Chase Headley and then was removed.

A great day . . . for parity

Today was a great day to be a baseball fan, no doubt. There was excitement all across the National League, as two playoff spots were pursued by four teams. The American League was sewed up a while ago -- it should be Red Sox/Angels and Indians/Yankees in the ALDS -- but the National League came into this weekend with no teams having clinched a postseason berth. The D-Backs and Cubs clinched a spot on Friday, and they will face each other in the NLDS. But the NL East and NL Wild Card came down to today and, amazingly enough, only one race was settled.
The Mets got blistered by the lowly Marlins and lost 8-1, with Tom Glavine getting knocked out of the box in the 1st inning. So the Mets had to hope for the Phillies to lose, which would result in a tie and a one-game playoff tomorrow (it actually could have been even more complicated; if both teams had won today, there was a possible 4-way tie with the Rockies and Padres for 2 playoff spots. I don't even want to contemplate what that would result in; there's never even been a 3-way tie for a postseason spot before, let alone a 4-way tie for two spots).
Instead, the Phillies routed the Nationals and clinched the NL East, their first postseason berth since 1993. The Phillies were 7 games back with just two weeks left in the season and somehow managed to come back -- perhaps the most amazing comeback in baseball history. Which, conversely, makes it one of the worst collapses in history for the Mets, right up with the '64 Phillies, '51 Dodgers, and '95 Angels. The borough of Queens might spontaneously explode with anger pretty soon, so I expect ownership to throw some sacrifical lambs to the crowd (Willie Randolph, first of all) to prevent an armed uprising.

Pending Options

Let's have a look at the players who still have options pending for the 2008 season and see what we think of them:

First Base

Kevin Millar, Baltimore Orioles

2008 Age: 36

2008 Option: $2.75 million (guaranteed with 475 PAs in '07)

Millar's option has already vested, as he's hit 252/363/421 this year. It's not so hot for a first baseman, but the Orioles are desperate, and $2.75 million isn't bad for that kind of offense, even if it's not up to par for the position.

Second Base

Mark Ellis, Oakland Athletics

2008 Age: 31

2008 Option: $5 mil. club option

Ellis is hitting 274/336/438 this year and is still one of the best defensive second basemen in baseball. What the A's do here depends on how far they go in their quest to rebuild. If they're really going all scorched-earth on us, then they could pick up Ellis's option and trade him. They'd probably get a decent return, too, considering the free agent class of 2Bs.

Marcus Giles, San Diego Padres

2008 Age: 30

2008 Option: $4 mil. club option

The Home Stretch

There's a lot to be excited about as we head for the last 10 games of the regular season. The AL playoff field is pretty much established: Red Sox, Yankees, Indians, Angels. Although, as you may have heard, the first two teams on that list have been engaging in a life-or-death struggle simply to determine who gets to face which of the latter two teams.
The above-linked article compares the Red Sox situation to that of the '78 team that blew a comfortable lead to the Yankees and then lost it all in a one-game playoff. In a sense, the comparison is valid; the '07 Sox had a quite comfortable lead in the AL East and have seen it dwindle to 1.5 games with 9 games remaining (the Yanks have 10 to play).
But in the realistic sense, this is nothing like '78. The AL East race is an overblown battle of collective egos in New England. It has basically no bearing on the postseason. In '78, the team that lost the race went home in October. This year, the team that loses this particular race will be the Wild Card rather than the AL East Champion. And that is absolutely no big deal.

Jim Thome

Jim Thome recently hit his 500th career home run, as you may have heard. Since he's reached this milestone, there's been some discussion as to whether or not Jim Thome is a Hall-of-Famer. From what I've heard, Thome isn't any kind of lock for Cooperstown; players from his era have to do more than hit 500 HR to merit consideration.
So let's take a look at Thome and see if we can come to our own consensus, shall we?

Let's start with the numbers and see what we can see. Thome is 37 years old and in the middle of his 17th big-league season. (* indicates numbers are through 2006. dt indicates Davenport Translations)

State of the MLB Union . . . AL West

Before I get to the AL West, a few observations about some baseball games I'm watching on this lazy Saturday afternoon:

• The Pirates just beat the Brewers 7-4. This leaves the Brewers just 1/2 game ahead of the Cubs atop the NL Central. The NL Central race between the Cubs and Brewers looks like it's going right down to the wire. Luckily, the Cubs finish up their season in Cincinnati, so (if it's not sold out) I might get the opportunity to see some history made at the GABP.
  The Pirates telecasts are very odd. They have a lot of product placements, but the most puzzling one by far is the Etch-a-Sketch renderings of the players as they come up to bat. Does this mean that most of the Pirates' audience is 5 years old? It would help explain all the empty seats at PNC Park -- I think they actually ran out of people to show in the crowd shots.
  I'll be doing another entry soon, weighing in with my opinions and predictions about the various division races. Although it's getting clearer and clearer who's going to the postseason, and there aren't a lot of really fascinating races left.
• The White Sox are leading the Indians 5-1 after five innings, beating up on Jake Westbrook. I don't worry about the Indians, who have a pretty safe lead in the AL Central. Their only competition is Detroit, who will be without Jeremy Bonderman now.
• The Royals are beating the Twins 4-0. Boy, the Twins were one of my big misses in my preseason predictions. And Gil Meche is pitching a pretty nifty game. I must admit that Meche's contract hasn't been as disastrous as I anticipated, but I stand by my opinion that the deal will be a poor one. It's great that Meche is having such a good year, but will it really continue?

And now, on to the AL West.

Los Angeles Angels (85-59)

State of the MLB Union . . . AL Central

• The New York Daily News is reporting that Cardinals outfielder Rick Ankiel received a year's supply of HGH from Signature Pharmacy in Florida. This is part of a large-scale steroids/HGH bust involving doctors and pharmacists from New York to Florida. A number of other athletes have been implicated with the sketchy practices of Signature.
  I'm not going to have burst a blood vessel and call for blood tests, a la Buster Olney. I think Jayson Stark offered the most reasoned response to the Ankiel story. The most important thing to remember is that HGH was not prohibited at the time Ankiel received his shipments (circa 2004). MLB may try to find some way to slap Ankiel on the wrist, but without more evidence, there's no way any punishment would survive an appeal. Nor should it. Whatever we feel personally about the HGH story (and the related story concerning Troy Glaus), there is nothing yet to merit any punitive action by the MLB.
• The Pirates have fired GM Dave Littlefield. In other news, word has finally been relayed to the captain of the Titanic that he has been relieved of his duties.

Cleveland Indians (81-60)
My Prediction: 94-68
On Current Pace: 93-69

State of the MLB Union . . . AL East

If I may ...

• It looks like Cecil Cooper will stay on as Astros manager after this season, but the position of GM remains open for the moment. I have to say, if Astros owner Drayton McLane wanted to create some scapegoats by getting rid of Phil Garner and Tim Purpura, the move has backfired. Since the firings took place, McLane himself has been the one to get flamed in the media, and very few people are optimistic about the chances of the next GM to serve under the meddlesome McLane.
• It's getting to be quite an exciting time for a baseball fan, as competitive balance rages on, especially in the NL, where nobody's sure of anything anymore. So hold on to your uniforms, and let's get started.

The AL East has been exciting, but as Rob Neyer pointed out today, it's an excitement that doesn't extend far beyond the northeast. Both the Red Sox and Yankees have really strong odds of making the postseason, so the only real drama is who wins the division and who wins the Wild Card. So unless you're a diehard fan of one of these teams, the excitement has to be tempered.
Still, there's a lot of good baseball to play, and there are still some very curious storylines to be played out in Baltimore, Toronto, and Tampa Bay.
Boston Red Sox (80-55)
My Prediction: 91-71
On Current Pace: 96-66

I Had No Idea: The Hitters (Pt. 4)

A few quick notes before we start:

• The Astros recently fired manager Phil Garner and GM Tim Purpura both on the same day. I was going to devote an entire entry to this, but Jayson Stark's excellent article makes most the same points I would have made. Although I wasn't particularly a fan of Garner or Purpura, the problem here (as Stark points out) goes much deeper than the manager and GM, and the new hires will face most of the same problems as before. And a lot of the blame goes to owner Drayton McLane.
• As to the Rangers' 30-3 victory over the Orioles: according to espn.com, the NFL's Baltimore Ravens haven't allowed 30 points in a game since 2005.

Reggie Smith (1966-1982)

(Career 287/366/489; 2,020 H; 314 HR; 1 Gold Glove; 7 All-Star teams)

This would be the second-most famous Reggie of his era, and unfortunately, that's about all he's remembered for. Reggie was a good all-around player for a number of winning teams, but he doesn't have one memorable moment or any flashy counting stats. What he was was a darn good player for quite some time, and that's well worth remembering.

I Had No Idea: The Hitters (Pt. 3)

Brett Butler (1981-1997)

(Career 290/377/376, 2,375 H; 558 SB; 1-time All-Star)

Butler doesn't fit into the general timeline of player's that I'm working with right now, but that's just because I forgot about him. I know, it's ironic that I would forget about a player to put in my entry of forgotten players. Ha ha.

Actually, I've been reading a couple books lately. One is Rob Neyer's Big Book of Baseball Blunders; actually I'm re-reading it, it's one of the best and most accessible baseball books of the past few years. The other book I'm working on is Baseball Prospectus' new tome, It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over, about the closest pennant races. In both books, Butler's name came up. In Neyer's book, he's mentioned as part of the dreadful trade that sent Len Barker to the Braves. In the BP book, he's mentioned as part of the Indians' abortive run at the postseason in 1984. I said to myself, "You know, nobody really talks about Brett Butler anymore." Then I finally put two and two together and included him in this series.