League Dichotomy

It's August, and the American League pennant races are really heating up. In the AL East, it's the Yankees and Red Sox still quite close, with a big weekend series at Fenway coming up. The Yankees are 2.5 games up, but that's not a whole lot, all things considered. In the AL Central, the once-invincible Tigers have lost 7 of their last 10 and are starting to look mortal. Granted, they still enjoy a healthy 6-game lead over the White Sox, but things are a lot closer than they were a month ago, making things a lot more interesting. The Twins are still in the race as well, only 8 games back.
In the AL West, we have the tightest race of them all, although the red-host Oakland A's have once again forged a second-half comeback and currently have a 5.5 game lead over the Angels, with the Rangers just 6 out. The A's have won 8 of their last 10 to give them this lead; on the other hand, we have the Mariners, who have lost 8 of 10 and dropped out of the race, now 12 games back. The AL Wild Card race is a tight 3-team race, barring a historic run by the Blue Jays, Rangers, or Angels. The White Sox currently lead the race by 1 game over Minnesota, with B0ston just a bare 2.5 back.
Simply put, there's a lot of good baseball in the AL and no matter what happens in September, some really good baseball teams will be left out of the postseason. The Tigers are on pace to win an amazing 105 games! The Red Sox, the team furthest back in the Wild Card race, are on pace to win 93 games. If we can assure the A's and Tigers a spot in the postseason (which we will, tentatively), that leaves just 2 playoff spots for the Yankees, Red Sox, White Sox, and Twins. Two of these teams will go home in October, despite the fact that they are all likely to win 90 games.
Which brings me to the point of this article . . .

Over in the National League . . . well, things aren't pretty. While the American League is setting the world on fire, the National League is limping along, threatening to set records for mediocrity. Oh sure, the Mets are a good ballclub; they're 73-48, 14 games up in their division, and on pace to win 98 games. Granted, the Mets have played most of their games within their own division, which is a pretty sorry division, all told. Even considering the low level of competition, no other team in the NL East is above .500. Oh, you can find some promising things to say about each team, I guess. The Phillies are in 2nd place, which sounds good, until you realize that their record is 59-62. The Braves have been a big disappointment (57-64), but at least they've got the young talent to portend better days ahead. The Marlins, although sporting a dismal 56-65 record, have to be considered a major surprise, considering many people predicted 100+ losses for them this year. They're on pace to go 75-87; not great, but a pleasant surprise. And the Nationals . . . okay, I lied, there's nothing promising about the Nationals.
In the NL Central, everyone expected the Cardinals to dominate, just as the Mets are doing this year and just as they themselves did the past two years, winning 105 games in 2004 and 100 games last year. Instead, the Cardinals have limped to a disappointing 65-56 record. Their starting pitching has been abysmal (outside of Carpenter), and their lineup has no depth and is getting older. They're on pace to win 87 games. That's not awful, but it's a major disappointment for any team to drop 13 games in the standings in just one year. But there is good news for the Cardinals: they're still in 1st place.
Yes, as dismal as the Cardinals have been, they've still been better than the rest of the sorry NL Central. The Reds are in 2nd place but, like the Phillies, it's not so much due to talent but rather by default; they're currently 62-60. That puts them 3.5 games out, still with a fighting chance despite their woeful pitching and defense. The Houston Astros still are a long shot at 7 games back, but despite their 58-63 record, we can't rule them out. The former NL champions have been a disappointment, although with their offense, it wasn't a complete surprise. What was a surprise was the big step back taken by the Milwaukee Brewers. After finishing an even 81-81 last season, it looked like the Brewers had the young talent to make a run at the Wild Card, especially give the bare opposition. But while their young hitters have hit (when healthy), their pitching has stunk. Ben Sheets has missed most of the season, and Chris Capuano has been the only reliably good pitcher they've had. The Cubs (52-69) and Pirates (47-75) were out of the race in May.
The NL West is probably a step better than it was last year, but that's faint praise indeed. The Padres won the West last year with an 82-80 record. The 1st-place Dodgers currently sport a 64-57 record, which means they're on pace for 86 wins. That's an improvement, but it's still a poor record for a division leader. Behind the Dodgers are 4 teams scattered thinly across the .500 line. The 2nd-place Diamondbacks are very much alive at just 3 games out, even though they're just 61-60. The defending champion Padres are in 3rd place at 60-61. To quote Major League, "60-61 is hardly a great job." A little further back are the Rockies (59-63) and Giants (58-63) who have played poorly enough to fall out of the race except for the fact that the rest of the division is only a few inches ahead of them.
What this also means is that the NL Wild Card race is an even bigger sham. If we've got the Dodgers and Cardinals winning their division with 86 and 87 wins, respectively, what the hell kind of second-place team deserves a spot in the postseason?
The Reds currently lead the Wild Card with their shockingly mediocre 62-60 record. Arizona is 1/2 game back, San Diego is 1.5 back, and 8 teams total are within 5 games of the Wild Card-leading Reds. It sounds like a close, exciting race, but it isn't -- it's not a "race" to the .50o line, it's a statistical regression. We'd expect about 8 or 9 teams to be right around average -- what we wouldn't expect is for so few teams to be above-average.
The 2006 NL is shaping up to be historically awful, in terms of wins and losses. The record for the team with the worst winning percentage to make the postseason was broken last year; the 2005 Padres were 82-80 and won the division. That broke the record of the 82-79 New York Mets of 1973 who, it must be said, not only won their division but won the NLCS against the Big Red Machine and took the dynastic Oakland A's to 7 games before losing the World Series.
So can we really compare the state of the 2006 NL to the 1973 NL? Not really. While the NL has had this deteriorating problem for a couple years now, the 1973 NL East was a fluke. From 1970-1972, the Pittsburgh Pirates won the NL East with 89, 97, and 96 wins, respectively. After the 1973 Met upset, the Pirates came back to win the division with 88 wins in 1974 and 92 wins in 1975. After that, the Philadelphia Phillies emerged as a power in the division, winning the division title three straight years from 1976-1978, winning 101 games twice before falling to 90 wins in 1978. In 1979, the Pirates had their last hurrah (literally) with a 98-64, division-winning campaign.
So the NL East wasn't a bad division at all in the 1970's; it was just one year, 1973, when the Pirates fell to 80-82 and the Mets won by default. It's probably true that the East was a worse division that the West in the 70's. The East sported two really good (and underappreciated) Pennsylvania ballclubs. The Pirates and Phillies were the powers of the NL East in the 70's, winning every division title except for 1973. But while these teams were indeed great, the rest of the division was weighed down by teams like the Expos, Cubs, and Cardinals, that drifted from mediocrity to awfuldom. Meanwhile in the NL West, the Big Red Machine was running wild, and the Dodgers were putting together a brilliant if less-historic run, winning 3 pennants in the decade. The NL West beat the NL East in the NLCS every year except 1971, 1973, and 1979. The Reds won 4 pennants; the Dodgers won 3.
The point I'm making is that the only other time in history that such a bad team managed to sneak into the postseason, 1973, doesn't really compare to the present day at all. The Mets won a weak 6-team division, and with a small number of teams per division, you're going to get your oddities, like the 1973 NL East, the 1994 AL West, and the 2005 NL West. But the Wild Card -- a race between all 13 non-division winners -- should produce at least one team better than 62-60. The problem has never been as league-wide as it is now -- at least, not in the modern era of free agency, the amateur draft, and increased competitive balance.
The point I was making about the 1973 NL is one I can make about the MLB today. The problem with the league wasn't overall bad play; rather, it was an imbalance. The good teams happened to be in one division, purely by a matter of chance. And baseball is set up not so that the two best teams go to October, but that the two division-winners go to October, no matter what division they may be in. The Wild Card was created to help compensate for that; the second-place 1973 Dodgers, who went 95-66, would have been rewarded with a playoff berth because they were simply in the wrong division -- they would have won the NL East by 13 games.
That imbalance is exactly what affects the MLB today; but instead of it being a divisional imbalance, it is a league imbalance. The general superiority of the American League has grown on us over the past few years. It becomes more evident every year as the AL whips the NL in the All-Star Game and dominates interleague play. Over the past 20 World Series, the AL has won 13. If you go back two more years, it's 15 of the last 22.
Every qualitative and quantitative measure has reinforced the same findings. I can't cite any specific studies, nor am I qualified to run my own, but I'm sure any measures taken to compare the leagues would find the AL superior.
The best I can do is to offer my own opinion in my favorite fashion -- position-by-position. I've noticed for a while that the AL enjoys an absurd advantage in shortstops. This has been true ever since the AL came up with Nomar/A-Rod/Jeter, Miguel Tejada, and Omar Vizquel, whereas the NL could manage was Rafael Furcal. The ascension of Michael Young, Jhonny Peralta, Carlos Guillen, and Bobby Crosby has only made the advantage more marked. But let's start at first base and see who's got the edge:

First Base:

AL: Mark Teixeira, Justin Morneau, Paul Konerko, Kevin Youkilis, Lyle Overbay, Richie Sexson
NL: Albert Pujols, Derrek Lee, Lance Berkman, Nick Johnson, Ryan Howard, Nomar Garciaparra, Carlos Delgado, Todd Helton, Prince Fielder
ADVANTAGE: NL
The NL laps the field with this one. Even assuming that Morneau Teixeira go on to compete for some MVP awards, and that Kevin Youkilis continues to get on base like a maniac, the NL has the edge. Albert alone would make the difference, but he's supported by borderline Hall-of-Famers like Berkman, Helton, Delgado, and Garciaparra, not to mention to young mashers in Howard and Fielder. There's also Nick Johnson, the NL equivalent of Kevin Youkilis.
Here's the snag: how do we consider DHs? We can't compare DHs between leagues, so we have to put all those AL DHs somewhere else to make a fair comparison. Even assuming that the existence of the DH favors the AL simply by giving more jobs to hitters, I still think this tips the balance back to the junior circuit. It all depends on how you want to look at it.
Here's the revised list:

AL: David Ortiz, Travis Hafner, Jim Thome, Jason Giambi, Frank Thomas, Morneau, Konerko, Teixeira, Youkilis, Overbay, Sexson
NL: Pujols, D. Lee, Berkman, N. Johnson, Howard, Nomar, Delgado, Fielder

There, it's advantage AL.

Second Base

AL: Brian Roberts, Robinson Cano, Tadahito Iguchi, Mark Loretta, Ian Kinsler, Placido Polanco, Jose Lopez, Luis Castillo, Howie Kendrick

NL: Chase Utley, Rickie Weeks, Jeff Kent, Dan Uggla, Marcus Giles, Ray Durham, Orlando Hudson, Jose Vidro, Josh Barfield, Craig Biggio

ADVANTAGE: NL?

I think I'd have to call this one about even. Utley and Weeks are probably better players than any of their AL counterparts, but both suffer from severe defensive issues. Jeff Kent is valuable, but old, and Marcus Giles can't be taken for granted. The AL has a plethora of solid second basemen, such as Roberts, Cano, Iguchi, Polanco, and Castillo -- any one of whom could break out for an All-Star-caliber year at any given moment -- it's just not as top-heavy as the NL. But note the presence of Kinsler and Kendrick on the AL list; they could tip the balance quite quickly.

Shortstop

AL: Derek Jeter, Miguel Tejada, Carlos Guillen, Michael Young, Jhonny Peralta, Orlando Cabrera, Bobby Crosby, B.J. Upton, Brandon Wood

NL: Jose Reyes, Edgar Renteria, Omar Vizquel, Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins, Rafael Furcal, Khalil Greene, Bill Hall, David Eckstein, Stephen Drew, Adam Everett and assorted other hitless glovemen.

ADVANTAGE: AL

Even with Nomar defecting to the NL and A-Rod moving to third, the AL still dominates. It's a good thing Jose Reyes came into his own this year, or else the NL would just be a horde of above-average guys with some star-quality years in them. The AL has two legitimate MVP candidates in Jeter and Tejada, as well as two guys who hit like MVPs in Guillen and Young (their defensive skills are a bit lacking). Peralta showed every indication of ascending to their level last year with big-time power and a great glove, but has regressed this year. He's still a stud in the making. As if that weren't enough, the AL is grooming two future monsters in Upton and Wood, although it's doubtful that Upton will stay at short.

Third Base

AL: Alex Rodriguez, Troy Glaus, Eric Chavez, Joe Crede, Mike Lowell, Melvin Mora, Adrian Beltre

NL: Miguel Cabrera, David Wright, Chipper Jones, Scott Rolen, Aramis Ramirez, Ryan Zimmerman, Garret Atkins, Freddy Sanchez, Chad Tracy, Aubrey Huff

ADVANTAGE: NL

"And out of the NL West came a three-headed monster named DaveRyanBrera." The NL East alone wins the battle here, with the three young wunderkinds Wright, Cabrera, and Zimmerman. Cabrera is already a legitimate monster with the chance to become a historically great third baseman, and Wright isn't far behind him. Zimmerman's bat hasn't yet fully caught up, but he's the best defender of the three by far. And we can't forget old stalwarts and likely HOFers Chipper Jones and Scott Rolen, injury-prone though they may be. The AL has A-Rod, but he's not been himself lately, and neither has Eric Chavez, who just hasn't put together the career we all thought he was capable of. And after Troy Glaus, you've just got the above-average guys who are either overpaid (Beltre, Lowell, Mora) or likely to become so very soon (Crede).

Left Field

AL: Manny Ramirez, Carlos Lee, Carl Crawford, Raul Ibanez, Frank Catalanotto

NL: Jason Bay, Alfonso Soriano, Adam Dunn, Barry Bonds, Pat Burrell, Matt Holliday, Luis Gonzalez, Andre Ethier

ADVANTAGE: NL

This is just continuing the trend of excellent NL left fielders in recent years. It came to a head back in 2001, when the NL had MVP-caliber seasons from seven left fielders: Barry Bonds, Luis Gonzalez, Gary Sheffield, Lance Berkman, Albert Pujols, Brian Giles, and Cliff Floyd. And think what it would look like if the Brewers had kept Carlos Lee . . .

Center Field

AL: Grady Sizemore, Vernon Wells, Johnny Damon, Torii Hunter, David DeJesus, Curtis Granderson, Gary Matthews, Jr., Rocco Baldelli

NL: Carlos Beltran, Andruw Jones, Jim Edmonds, Mike Cameron, Ken Griffey, Eric Byrnes, Randy Winn, Aaron Rowand

ADVANTAGE: AL

Sizemore and Wells are a dynamic duo. While they can't yet match the output of Beltran or Andruw, they soon will. This is a pattern; the NL center fielders are getting older and decreasing in value -- Edmonds and Griffey especially -- whereas the AL has youth on its side with Sizemore, DeJesus, Granderson, and others.

Right Field

AL: Vladimir Guerrero, Bobby Abreu, Ichiro Suzuki, Jermaine Dye, Alexis Rios, Magglio Ordonez, Nick Swisher, Trot Nixon

NL: J.D. Drew, Austin Kearns, Ryan Freel, Shawn Green, Brian Giles, Brad Hawpe, Jacque Jones, Jeff Francouer, Jeremy Hermida

ADVANTAGE: AL

The Abreu trade only made more pronounced what was already evident. The AL sports two perennial MVP candidates, plus top-notch players like Ichiro. Drew is that good when healthy, which is rare, and after that it goes back to the good-but-not-great stars like Kearns, Hawpe, and Giles (at this age).

Catcher

AL: Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, Ivan Rodriguez, Jorge Posada, Jason Varitek, Ramon Hernandez, Kenji Johjima, Javier Lopez, A.J. Pierzynski, Mike Napoli

NL: Brian McCann, Michael Barrett, Mike Piazza, Paul Lo Duca, Johnny Estrada, Russell Martin

ADVANTAGE: AL

This might be even more pronounced than the "shortstop gap." The AL has possible MVPs (Mauer, Martinez) and former MVP-level players (Posada, Pudge, Varitek, Javy). The NL has McCann, who's a legitimate superstar, but that's about it. Michael Barrett hits very well, but is a woeful defender; ditto Mike Piazza, who's only getting older.

Starting Pitcher

AL: Johan Santana, Roy Halladay, Francisco Liriano, Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, John Lackey, Curt Schilling, Scott Kazmir, Danny Haren, Mike Mussina, Jeremy Bonderman, Jered Weaver, C.C. Sabathia, Erik Bedard, Jose Contreras, Mark Buehrle, Barry Zito, Chien-Mieng Wang, Ervin Santana, Freddy Garcia, Jarrod Washburn, Kenny Rogers, Josh Beckett, Randy Johnson, A.J. Burnett, Bartolo Colon

NL: Brandon Webb, Roy Oswalt, Jake Peavy, Carlos Zambrano, Pedro Martinez, Chris Carpenter, Jason Schmidt, Ben Sheets, John Smoltz, Brad Penny, Chris Capuano, Bronson Arroyo, Dontrelle Willis, Tom Glavine, Aaron Harang, Josh Johnson, Brett Myers, Greg Maddux, Derek Lowe, Scott Olsen, Zach Duke, Andy PettitteTim Hudson, Mark Prior

ADVANTAGE: AL

Here is where it becomes clear. A list of the 5 best pitchers in baseball, now and for the foreseeable future, would probably be a list of 5 AL pitchers, depending on how you like Ben Sheets or Jake Peavy. The AL stands dominant, especially with the youth of their pitchers. The AL has seen the debut of a historic number of ace rookie pitchers in recent years, while the NL has seen a relative trickle. There are some prospects to watch in the NL, and guys like Willis and Webb are still young yet, but there is simply nothing to match Santana, Liriano, and King Felix. Nothing.

Relief Pitchers

AL: Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan, Jonothan Papelbon, B.J. Ryan, Francisco Rodriguez, Joel Zumaya, Bobby Jenks, J.J. Putz, Akinori Otsuka, Huston Street, Chris Ray

NL: Trevor Hoffman, Tom Gordon, Billy Wagner, Eric Gagne (?), Takashi Saito, Chad Cordero, Brad Lidge, Mike Gonzalez

ADVANTAGE: AL by a mile

With the fall of Gagne to injuries and Lidge to . . . something, the AL proved its dominance in closers and relievers. Rivera and Nathan are the two best in the game, and Ryan and Papelbon aren't far behind. All four probably rank ahead of any of the NL closers. Not only that, but the AL has a great depth of good closers and relievers, whereas the NL simply does not. Heavy advantage AL.

Conclusion? While you could quibble about the position players, it seems that the AL enjoys the advantage, particularly at catcher and shortstop. However, the AL pitching roster truly overwhelms that of the NL, making it even more understandable how they became the superior league. My little position-by-position examination only reinforces my hypothesis, although I never realized the true supremacy in pitching.

But what are the larger reasons for this? How and why did the AL ascend to a higher level of competition than the NL? I don't know for sure (no one really does), but here are a few ideas:

• Buying power. The two biggest payrolls in baseball are in the AL: Boston and New York. Last year, the average AL payroll was about $75.2 million. The average NL payroll was about $70.9 million. It may not sound like a whole lot, but when the whole AL averages $5 million more on payroll, that tells you something. And the averages above don't reflect the statistical outliers; The Yankees' $208 million payroll was about 69% higher than the second-highest Boston Red Sox ($123.5 mil.) and more than twice as much as any NL team (the Mets were tops at $101 million). So while the NL might enjoy a certain equality among teams in their own league, they can't compete with the AL, especially for free agents.
• Developing Talent. You really can't judge the relative skills of each league's player development by making a short list of players. While names like Felix Hernandez, Francisco Liriano, Johan Santana and Travis Hafner all jump out at you, so does the name Albert Pujols, the best player in baseball. It also must be said that both Santana and Liriano were originally signed by National League teams. It's beyond my power to do a comprehensive team-by-team study of farm system output. However, the anecdotal evidence is very strong; looking at Rookie of the Year voting and generally gauging the young talent in the game would make you suspect that the AL is lapping the field in that regard.
• Smarts. This may be more speculative, but I don't think it's a coincidence that the two teams to most heartily embrace statistical analysis are both in the AL. In addition to the A's and Red Sox, there is also the Toronto Blue Jays, although their statistical outlook didn't help them nearly as much in the won-loss column. But with the exception of Paul DePodesta's abortive stint in Los Angeles, the NL doesn't have any one team that has whole-heartedly embraced the use of stats. All teams use stats, of course, to some degree, especially in recent years, and it must be said that teams like the Cardinals have given stats room in their front office.
  But looking just beyond stats, it would seem that the AL has incorporated "new baseball knowledge," of stats and more, much more quickly than the NL. Not only do you have trailblazers like the A's and Red Sox, you also have the less-successful Blue Jays and the hybrid Indians, a success in their own right. There is no comparable team in the National League that has embraced this "new knowledge," and I stress again that this isn't limited to sabermetrics or statistics but just the revolution in thought that has taken place in the game for years now. This could have the cumulative effect of increasing the dispartiy between leagues in a slower and more subtle way, through canny drafting and scouting as opposed to flashy free agent signings.
• Style of play. This is, again, speculative on my part. But I wonder if the presence of the Designated Hitter, which forces teams to abandon most "smallball" tactics, makes the American League superior. Statisticians have acknowledged for half a century that "smallball" tactics are indeed small and while valuable, are often grossly overused by managers. Could it be that the DH, which features more of a "homer-and-walk" Earl Weaver offense, is inherently superior to the "smallball" tactics used more often in the NL, the league of pinch-hitting and sacrifice bunting? Could it be that, unconsciously, AL managers use strategies which fit their league and their extra hitter, whereas NL managers, stuck in the 1890s, waste outs to such an extent that it makes the AL a superior league? I think I'm onto something here, and I think this may be a tangible difference between leagues. I don't know that it would be a very significant factor, but then you never know -- the ascension of the American League more or less coincides with the return of baseball to an offensive era. And in an era of high offense, smallball tactics, which give up a base for an out, are harmful when overused. The DH has unconsciously forced the AL to adopt a superior in-game management strategy, which has grown to benefit them over the years, particularly in the current era.

These are just thoughts; take them for what you will. But think about it in October, when one or maybe two AL teams with 90 wins sit at home, while three 80-win teams stumble into October in the National League.

Trade Analysis

Now that the trade deadline has come and gone, let's take a close look at all the deals that were done (and a few that weren't) and see who the big winners and losers were.

July 26

Cleveland Indians trade Ben Broussard and cash to the Seattle Mariners for OF Shin-Soo Choo and a PTBNL.

The Indians do a good job of saving a little money ($2.4 million minus whatever cash they sent), trading away a 29-year-old player having a career year (321/361/519 against a 268/333/470 career average). In exchange, they get a 24-year-old outfield prospect who is major-league ready (282/382/431 in AAA this year). He doesn't project to be a star, but he's quite a useful player to fill a hole, especially since they aren't pressed for first-basemen.

From Seattle's point of view, this is a troubling trade. They're getting someone who is, this year excepted, one of the worst-hitting first basemen in baseball. Seattle doesn't need a first baseman, and although they do need a DH, there are a lot more attractive DHs in baseball than Broussard. Seattle was basically looking for any sort of left-handed offense, regardless of whether it would actually be the right thing for the organization. Broussard is a better DH than Carl Everett, but a) that's not saying much and b) the Mariners aren't nearly close enough to first place to start sacrificing the long-term. This isn't to say that Choo is a terrible loss, but all in all this is a poor trade for Seattle, and the sign of a desperate GM not thinking clearly.

July 28

Atlanta Braves trade Wilson Betemit to the L.A. Dodgers in exchange for RHP Danys Baez, INF Willy Aybar, and cash.

This is another basically useless attempt by Atlanta to improve their bullpen, despite the fact that they're almost completely out of the race. Except this time, it cost them a valuable player. Instead of building for the future, the Braves are trading away a valuable player in Betemit and getting much less in return.

The Braves made the trade under the impression that Baez is a "difference-maker" who will shore up their bullpen. First of all, Baez isn't nearly as good as people think he is. He used to be a closer, yes, but so did Heathcliff Slocumb. General Managers even today show an unhealthy infatuation for former closers and anyone who's compiled saves, regardless of how good they actually are.

Danys Baez is a 28-year-old righthander whose claim to fame is that he used to be the closer for the Devil Rays. He's actually been a pretty good pitcher for most of his career (3.75 career ERA), but his BB:K ratio has never been the sign of a quality reliever, as Baez is prone to walks. Not only that, but the Braves decided to trade for Baez in the midst of his worst season, where he compiled a 4.35 ERA in 49.2 innings despite pitching in Los Angeles. He's struck out 29 batters in those innings, which isn't awful, but not the sign of a "difference-maker." Baez isn't bad; but he's not great either. If the Braves had gotten him for nothing, that would be fine.

But of course they didn't get him for nothing. Baez makes $4 million this year, and the Braves will be paying nearly half of it, minus whatever cash the Dodgers sent along in the deal. He's a free agent at the end of the season, so he'll contribute nothing to the Braves beyond this year.

More costly by far, however, is the loss of Wilson Betemit. The simple truth is that the Braves need Wilson Betemit a lot more than they need 20 decent innings of Danys Baez. With Chipper Jones on the DL (he was injured the day the trade happened), Betemit is an invaluable replacement at third base, as the Braves lose a lot of offense with Chipper on the shelf. Betemit was hitting 281/344/497 at the time of the trade, good numbers for a part-timer who has a good glove and the versatility to play all over the infield. Betemit is in his second year of major league service, making a bare $345,000 this year. The Braves would have controlled Betemit for four more years after the deal, making him a better long-term investment by far than Baez.

The Braves did get Willy Aybar in the deal and expect him to take over at third base in Chipper's absence. While Aybar is young, cheap, and a solid hitter, he's not as good as Betemit. Nor is he as proven. Aybar did hit 325/356/414 with L.A. before the trade, but his minor league numbers suggest that he's not quite that good yet.

So the Braves hurt themselves in the short run; they gave up a critical (and cheap) backup third baseman in exchange for a 20-inning rental of a decent, overpaid reliever having a bad year. They also hurt themselves in the long run; Baez is gone after this year, and while Aybar may come close to replacing Betemit, it wasn't at all worth giving him up.

Conclusion: John Schuerholz again shows his tendency to overvalue veteran relievers and his desperation to reach the playoffs, even when every indication shows that it just ain't gonna happen this year.

Milwaukee Brewers trade Carlos Lee and OF Nelson Cruz to Texas Rangers in exchange for OF Kevin Mench, RHP Francisco Cordero, OF Laynce Nix, and minor league LHP Julian Cordero.

The Rangers won the Carlos Lee sweepstakes and didn't have to give up a whole lot in return. Several GMs said after the trade went down (relatively early) that they could have offered more than the Rangers did. Since there are so many players involved, let's assess both sides of the trade "equation" to see if they're roughly equal.

Carlos Lee is a legitimate "monster," in the sense that he's one of baseball's best sluggers. He's averaged about 25 HR per season every year in the majors, and yet he already has 28 so far this year. It's fair to say that' he'll top his career high of 32, set last year; it's also fair to say that this is a big career year for Carlos, as far as his power is concerned.

Carlos Lee is a good power hitter and a pretty good overall hitter. His career numbers are 285/339/494, although he's hitting 286/347/549. The Rangers may think this is a natural power surge that will carry over until next year; but Carlos is 30 years old, and this is a career year. Lee is essentially a great guy to have in left field (in every aspect except defense), even considering his low OBP. He is not, however, an MVP. He will probably get paid like one when he signs his free agent contract (he's eligible for free agency after this season) by some fool GM who can't see past all those homers and RBI. But that's beside the point. Carlos Lee is getting $8.5 million this year, and he's a big boost to the Ranger offense. That's not even considering the fact that his numbers will improve hitting in that ballpark. He's a great guy to have, and a good steal.

The Rangers also acquired Nelson Cruz. Cruz is described as a great power threat with a long swing, and thus a propensity for strikeouts. It's unclear whether this weakness will hamper his production in the majors; it should be said, however, that in 2005, his last minor league season, he hit 306/388/577 in 248 ABs in AA before getting called up to AAA and hitting 269/382/490 in 208 ABs. Now, he is 25, which is a bit old for his level, but that's still impressive. This isn't to say, of course, that he will hit that well in the majors; the hole in his swing could keep him from being a true contributor. However, he's a great guy to have as a throw-in, and will fit in quite nicely with the Rangers, either as an everyday outfielder or a fourth outfielder/DH type. He's also making about $325,000, which is one hell of a deal.

So what did the Brewers get in return?

They got Kevin Mench, who is a corner outfielder who probably won't hit like one away from Texas. With Texas this year, Mench hit 275/339/491 at home and 295/338/423 away. So in Texas, Mench is a good defender who makes up for a low OBP with power. Away from Texas, that power goes away, and so does most of his value. It's hard to tell for sure how much of Mench's offense will disappear in Milwaukee, but it will probably be enough to make him a poor long-term choice for either left field or right field.

Francisco Cordero was, at one time, one of the best young closers in baseball. He took over the job in 2002, and from that season through 2004, he posted a 2.39 ERA while saving 74 of 91 games. In 199.2 IP, he struck out 210 batters and allowed an amazing 7 home runs! He looked like the next elite closer.

In 2005, he blew 8 saves and allowed a few more homers, bringing his ERA up to 3.39. In 2006, the bottom fell out: 6/15 in saves and a 4.81 ERA, despite allowing just 5 HR in 48.2 IP with a still-stellar BB:K ratio. It's hard to know for sure what went wrong with Cordero; or, if his peripheral stats are to believed, if anything actually did go wrong. This is, in my opinion, a great acquisition for Milwaukee: they got a guy who used to be an elite closer (and probably could be again) while his stock was at its lowest. Texas may come to regret giving up on him, although they have gotten good work from new closer Akinori Otsuka.

Laynce Nix is a throw-in; he used to be a prospect, but after injury after injury, he's a 25-year-old ex-prospect with a 247/285/426 major league hitting line in 231 career games. He's slick defensively, but it doesn't look like he'll be anything more than a fourth outfielder-type now. Julian Cordero is a fill-out prospect; a 21-year-old pitcher in A-ball.

So what's our conclusion? While I don't think Brewers GM Doug Melvin did a bad job (I tend to value Cordero more than others), I agree that he probably could have gotten more for his troubles than a potential closer and some C-level outfielders. Melvin declared that he wanted to make a deal for "major league-ready talent," and he certainly did, which is why he may have spurned offers from other teams.

But as Keith Law has pointed out, why is Melvin so interested in major league-ready talent? The Brewers aren't the Giants; they're not a ticking time bomb that has to win now. They're built to win in the future, and acquiring more prospects would have further cemented that, especially good pitching prospects. And he didn't really acquire that much talent, though it may be "major league-ready."

Conclusion? Melvin, normally a fine GM, made a tactical mistake in taking mid-level major league talent when he could have virtually named his price in prospects. Not a bad trade, but not a good one, either. For the Rangers, it's a great trade over the short-term. However, if they choose to sign Lee to a contract extension for big-time money, they will be disappointed; he's 30 years old and not as good as he's looked this year.

Two other odd trades by Doug Melvin deserve mention:

Brewers acquire Phillies 3B David Bell in exchange for minor league RHP Wilfrido Laureano.

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Brewers acquire Royals INF Tony Graffanino in exchange for LHP Jorge de la Rosa.

Neither of these moves will do anything for Milwaukee in the long-term; both players are free agents at season's end. By trading away Carlos Lee, Melvin has essentially given up any hopes for a miracle comeback to the Wild Card race (and rightfully so). So why did he acquire two short-term rentals (who aren't exactly cheap) who don't fill any useful need? I understand that the Brewers have suffered several injuries lately; 2B Rickie Weeks, SS J.J. Hardy, and 3B Corey Koskie are all on the DL. But do you have to trade for overpriced veterans to fill these temporary holes? You've already got Bill Hall to cover shortstop and Jeff Cirillo to cover third. Couldn't you just bring up somebody from the minors to play second for the time being?

And while I might -- might understand bringing in a temporary bat like Graffanino (267/341/400 this year), what in the world would anyone want with David Bell? Bell is perhaps the worst everyday third baseman in baseball and has been for a few years. He's making $4.5 million this year despite hitting a bare 275/342/294. Graffanino makes half as much!

So neither of these deals make any sense over the long run, and should be considered a huge overreaction to the short-term problem of injured players.

Giants acquire RHP Mike Stanton from Nationals in exchange for RHP Shairon Martis.

This is Trader Jim Bowden selling anything that isn't nailed down. Stanton's making $1 million this year despite a 4.34 ERA and a 21:31 BB:K ratio (45.2 IP) in a pitcher's park. He's a small upgrade for the Giants, true, but not by much. It's one of those out-of-the-way trades that doesn't cost a lot yet contributes almost nothing to the team.

July 30

Indians acquire 2B Ronnie Belliard from the Cardinals in exchange for INF Hector Luna.

The short story on this deal is that Belliard really isn't a whole lot better than Luna -- but he's older and more expensive. The upside is that he has a much better reputation than Luna and is a "veteran." Is being a veteran worth the percentage of Belliard's $4 million salary you have to pay him to hit 291/337/420 with lackluster defense? Luna, by contrast, was hitting 291/353/419 at the time of the trade while making about $340,000. The Cardinals would have controlled him for another 4 seasons at discount prices, whereas Belliard leaves at the end of this year as a free agent, making the Cardinals have to fill their 2B hole again. Luna isn't that good a hitter in real life, but he was at least cheap -- and there. Now the Cards will have to overpay again this off-season to find another "veteran," because God knows, Tony LaRussa will have a stroke if he isn't surrounded by enough "veterans."

Yankees acquire Bobby Abreu and Cory Lidle from Phillies in exchange for 4 minor leaguers: SS C.J. Henry, LHP Matt Smith, C Jesus Sanchez, and RHP Carlos Monasterios.

This is your good old-fashioned salary dump. The Phillies are able to fill out their minor league roster, but they didn't get any of the Yankees' top prospects in the deal.

The plus side? The Yankees are paying all the money due to Abreu and Lidle. For Abreu, that's whatever remains of his $13 million salary this season, and all of his $15 million 2007 salary. If they choose not to pick up his $16 million option for 2008, they will pay him another $2 million. Lidle is a free agent after this year, so the Yanks are on the hook for just less than half of his $3.3 million salary for this year.

And do you know what the sad part is (unless you're a Yankee fan)? The Yanks can afford it. Abreu is still one of the best all-around players in baseball, and the Yanks can afford to pick up his huge tab in exchange for top-notch production. Lidle isn't a very good pitcher, but he doesn't have to be; all he has to do is take over the innings pitched by Sidney Ponson (10.00 ERA), Shawn Chacon (7.00), Aaron Small (8.46), and Kris Wilson (8.64). And if all he does is maintain his present ERA of 4.74, that will be a signifcant upgrade, especially given Lidle's durability. If the Yankees can go into the stretch run with a rotation of Mussina, Wang, Randy Johnson, Jaret Wright, and Lidle, they will at least be competitive. And if they can get back Hideki Matsui and Gary Sheffield from injury, the Yanks will -- considering the acquisition of Abreu -- have the best lineup in baseball. Consider:

CF - Johnny Damon

SS - Derek Jeter

RF - Bobby Abreu

3B - Alex Rodriguez

DH - Jason Giambi

1B - Gary Sheffield

LF - Hideki Matsui

C - Jorge Posada

2B - Robinson Cano

Since the Abreu trade, the Yankees are the favorites to win the AL East and have gone a long way toward ensuring themselves another postseason berth. The Yankees really weren't that bad to begin with; they were able to stay in the Wild Card race despite their pitching highs and lows and the loss of Sheffield and Matsui. The trade for Abreu just further cements their excellence.

Conclusion? Damn Yankees win again. It's not a great move for the Phillies -- but let's see what they do with all that money they're saving before we call it a failure.

July 31

Cardinals acquire RHP Jorge Sosa from Braves in exchange for Rich Scalamandre.

The Cardinals, like the Yankees, are sifting through the detritus of baseball looking for a useful starting pitcher. Sosa is, indeed, the detritus, and the Braves are better off rid of him. Although it shouldn't have taken them 13 starts, 87.1 IP and a 5.46 ERA to figure it out.

Cubs trade INF Todd Walker to Padres in exchange for minor league RHP Jose Ceda.

The Padres were desperate to fill their hole at third base, but it was a problem of their own making when they traded for Vinny Castilla and then were surprised when he hit 232/260/319 before being released. Walker is certainly an upgrade (277/352/390 with the Cubs), although at about $1 million, not quite what they were looking for. Rumors had the Padres interested in Houston's Morgan Ensberg, Texas' Hank Blalock and even Seattle's Adrian Beltre (and the Contract from Hell). Walker's the best they could do, I guess. For the Cubs, you might as well jettison everything of value, especially old players nearing free agency. Speaking of which . . .

Cubs trade P Greg Maddux to Los Angeles for INF Cesar Izturis.

It's understandable that the Cubs would want to trade Maddux, seeing as he's expensive, non-productive, and about to reach free agency. It's a bit sad that Maddux didn't end his career with the team that drafted him; that would have been a nice bit of symmetry, and it would have meant a star pitcher spending his whole career with just two teams. But although it doesn't fit the storybooks, it is, as I said, understandable.

What's debatable is that the Cubs would settle for so little in return. In an espn.com chat recently, someone remarked that the Cubs must be trying to corner the market on middle infielders who can't hit. I tend to agree. Everyone speaks of Izturis as a Gold Glove-winner, and he certainly is that, but that's only worth so much if you can't hit worth a damn. And Izturis cannot.

This might not be such a problem under other circumstances; if you had a team stacked with offense, you could afford to sacrifice the #8 or #9 spot in your lineup to a punchless glove man at a key defensive position. The Cubs, of course, are in no such position. The Cubs need offense, and Cesar Izturis won't help them find it. Cubs announcer Bob Brenly actually had the temerity to say, during tonight's broadcast, that in shortstops "offense is the last thing to come." Does Bob Brenly -- who actually won a World Series as a manager -- actually believe that the 26-year-old Izturis, having hit 260/295/339 for his career, is going to defy baseball history and accepted statistical knowledge and develop into Cal Ripken? I do not envy Len Kasper his job.

Again, it's not that Izturis is a bad player -- he's a player ill-suited to his environment. It also adds yet another footnote to my "Fire Jim Hendry" article.

For the Dodgers, the trade is also pretty questionable. It's a comparable situation to the one the Yankees face, in that the Dodgers just want someone durable who can post an ERA better than 5.00. But whereas Lidle's 2006 salary was $3.3 million, Maddux's is $9 million. Granted, the Dodgers can afford to overpay players, but even they have some limits. So far this year, Maddux has posted a 4.69 ERA and allowed 14 homers, which is not so good even for Wrigley Field. It's true that Dodger Stadium is a more pitcher-friendly park not so prone to home runs, but it won't turn the 2006 Greg Maddux back into the 1994 Greg Maddux (1.56 ERA), or even the 2004 Greg Maddux (4.02 ERA).

Maddux will improve the Dodger pitching staff -- but whose place will he take in the rotation? Here is LA's starting rotation:

Brad Penny: 3.53 ERA, 21 starts, 33:92 BB:K ratio

Derek Lowe: 4.29 ERA, 23 starts, 42:82 BB:K ratio

Chad Billingsley: 3.93 ERA, 9 starts, 38:28 BB:K ratio

Aaron Sele: 3.95 ERA, 14 starts, 24:44 BB:K ratio

Brett Tomko: 4.94 ERA, 15 starts, 21:48 BB:K ratio

ERA-wise, everybody but Tomko looks fine, although there are some trouble spots. Aaron Sele is not this good and his ERA should not be trusted any more than is absolutely necessary. Chad Billingsley is a fine prospect, but 38 walks in 50.1 IP is still a red flag.

So the Dodgers don't have a bad rotation. The only person here who Maddux would be a clear upgrade over (if Sele can be trusted) is Tomko. The Dodgers could shift him to the bullpen, though that would be a little embrassing; GM Ned Colletti signed the below-average hurler to a 2-year $8.7 million contract before the season, so it would be troubling to give up on him so soon. And if Tomko does stay in the rotation, does that make Maddux a $4 million insurance policy?

Conclusion? I can't deny that the Dodgers need some help, nor can I deny that Maddux is probably an improvement. But I just don't know that he's worth the money. As far as the Cubs go, they get screwed again, big surprise. It's Jim Hendry's fault although, as Rob Neyer points out, Dusty will be thrilled to have another good-glove player who can't hit.

Reds acquire LHP Rheal Cormier from the Phillies in exchange for RHP Justin Germano; Reds acquire RHP Kyle Lohse from the Twins in exchange for RHP Zach Ward.

As if the ill-fated Kearns deal weren't evidence enough, the Reds are absolutely desperate for pitching. The good news is that they didn't give up anything big in these two trades; the bad news is, they didn't get anything all that great, either.

Cormier isn't a bad relief pitcher, but a) he's not that great (coming off a 2005 where he posted a 5.89 ERA), b) he's old (39), and c) he won't be worth much regardless. The Reds will use Cormier as their left-handed relief specialist, meaning he'll probably pitch at most 20 innings or so. 20 innings of middle relief is, in the scheme of things, a drop in the bucket.

At least in Cormier, the Reds got someone who is remotely reliable (despite his age and his awful '05, Cormier had managed a 1.59 ERA in Philadelphia this year). In Kyle Lohse, the Reds got a failed starting pitcher with a salary that scared off all the smart teams. The Reds on purpose traded for a pitcher with a 7.07 ERA in 63.2 IP with the Twins; a player who won $4 million this year in arbitration and is eligible again next year. For $2 million (or whatever percentage of his salary the Reds are responsible for), the Reds are getting an awful pitcher. There are plenty of awful pitchers out there, most of whom are much cheaper. And if the Reds wanted a decent pitcher making that kind of money, they could have gone after the better and more reliable Cory Lidle, or several other pitchers like him on the trading market. Instead, they made a downright stupid move -- getting an expensive player who also happens to be really bad.

Conclusion? Out of desperation, Reds GM Wayne Krivsky has made some stupid moves. Rheal Cormier isn't a bad pitcher, no. But it should be said that his salary this year is $2.5 million with a $2.25 million extension for next year, plus a 2008 option. Kyle Lohse is a bad pitcher making even more money than that. Wayne Krivsky has done what bad GMs do: when their team is desperate, they make desperate trades that end up hurting their team over the long run and the short run.

Rockies acquire LHP Jeremy Affeldt and RHP Denny Bautista from Royals in exchange for INF Ryan Shealy and RHP Scott Dohmann.

Royals GM Dayton Moore continues to trade off worthless players with some good returns. Affeldt and Bautista have pretty much proven their lack of ability to get major league hitters out on a regular basis. So why do the Rockies desire them? Beats me, but the Royals got a pretty good prospect out of it in Shealy.

Tigers acquire 1B Sean Casey from Pirates in exchange for RHP Brian Rogers.

The Pirates were stupid to trade for Sean Casey; at least they had the good sense to trade him (and his $7 million salary) away. Casey is amazingly overrated in that he hits for a high average (but little else) and plays good defense (at the least important defensive position). Casey is one of the worst-hitting first basemen in the game, all-told, because of his lack of power. The Tigers wanted another left-handed bat, and I guess they got one, but Casey isn't worth the money. They would be better off just sticking with Dmitri Young and saving for the offseason.

My guess? The Tigers felt the pressure to make some move at the trading deadline, and instead of standing up to it, they caved in. Casey won't be a bad asset for them, but that money could have been better spent elsewhere.

Rangers acquire Matt Stairs from Royals in exchange for RHP Jose Diaz.

This is just a case of the Rangers seeking to acquire another outfield/DH bat -- a left-handed one, at that. Stairs is still a good hitter (261/352/429) and a decent bargain; of his $1.4 million salary, the Rangers will pick up a little over half a million.

Dodgers acquire SS Julio Lugo from Devil Rays in exchange for INF Joel Guzman and OF Sergio Pedroza.

There was, of course, no chance the Devil Rays were going to re-sign Lugo. So they sent him off to L.A. for some good prospects.

Lugo is a good player and will help the Dodgers, but I'm not sure they actually need him. With the acquisition of Wilson Betemit, the team is set at third base. The plan is for Lugo to cover for the injured Jeff Kent at second for now; when Kent returns, his position will be "reevaluated." That's all well and good -- but there's no need for two shortstops when there's only one spot in the lineup for them. Lugo is usually a good defender (though he's having a bad year this year), steals bases well, and is a good hitter for the position. He's a good guy to have yes, but it's not worth having five good infielders when there are just 4 infield positions.

This move, along with the Maddux move above, is made even more questionable considering the Dodgers' fading chances in the postseason race. The trouble with the races this year is that everybody has a 5% chance of making the postseason, and so they're all acting like they're still in the race. Almost no one has been realistic enough to admit to the fact that they're not contenders and just sit back, save money and prospects, and trade away your veterans to save more money and prospects. It may be the prospects, in retrospect, that make this deal a waste; especially if the Dodgers miss the playoffs and Lugo leaves as a free agent (which is the most likely scenario).

Mets acquire RHP Roberto Hernandez and LHP Oliver Perez from Pirates for OF Xavier Nady.

The key, of course, if you're trading off your veterans, is to get prospects in return. If, instead, you take older, more expensive players (Nady is 27 and is eligible for arbitration next year), make sure they're good players who can help you in the future, when you'll be ready to contend again. Because the Pirates won't be contenders for more than three years at least. At which point Nady will be gone as a free ageny. Oh, and by the way? Nady is a career 263/322/433 hitter, which is plum awful for a corner outfielder. If you think I'm making a case to fire Pirates GM Dave Littlefield, I am, but no blog in the world has enough memory to store all the evidence for that case.

The Mets, in return, got a valuable relief arm in Hernandez. They also get Oliver Perez. Perez was, in 2004, one of the best starters in the league and looked like a future pitching ace. Then, for some reason, he wasn't. He's currently in the minor leagues trying to get his head on straight. It's not a bad idea for the Mets to take him on the off-chance that they can get his obvious ability back on track again. Hell, all they had to give up was Nady (who will be readily replaced by prospect Lastings Milledge).

In the same vein . . .

Yankees acquire OF Craig Wilson from Pirates for RHP Shawn Chacon.

This one is just sad. Wilson is quite a good young hitter who is not only fairly cheap but defensively versatile, he can play the infield and outfield corners and even catch in a pinch. Chacon is just a bad pitcher. Now that the Royals have a new GM, Dave Littlefield might just be the worst in baseball. I'm sure he's a pleasant enough person, but all the evidence is on his side in that regard.

Rangers acquire RHP Kip Wells from the Pirates for P Jesse Chavez.

Wells isn't a good pitcher (6.69 ERA this year), nor has he ever been (4.45 career), and the even better news is that he's been getting worse, with his ERA increasing each of the past 3 years. The Rangers (like many teams) are desperate for pitching help, but surely they could have done better than Wells, another pitcher making about $4 million despite being worse than replacement level.

Well, that's the final tally of all the major deals that took place over the past week. Now let's look at all the big names that, as it turns out, did not get traded.

Alfonso Soriano, Washington Nationals

If you'll pardon the cliche, GM "Trader" Jim Bowden cut off his nose to spite his face. Everyone knew that Bowden would have to trade Soriano, who is eligible for free agency after this year, or else he would get nothing in return. They knew that Bowden would have to trade him for whatever B-level prospects he could get, or else he would lose him year's end for nothing but compensatory draft picks. Everyone knew this, so when Bowden started asking for major A-level prospects, no one bit. They knew he'd lower his asking price eventually; he'd have to.

Well, Bowden sure proved them wrong. Keeping his poker face intact, Bowden refused to lower his asking price, insisting that some team would offer him A-level prospects for Soriano, such a hot commodity. In fact, Bowden even started negotiating a contract extension to keep Soriano in Washington, just to show everybody that he didn't have to trade him.

Bowden refused to lower his price all the way through the deadline. No team blinked; no one agreed to Bowden's outlandish demands for a return for Soriano. So Soriano stayed in Washington. And it was a major Bowden Blunder.

Why? Because everybody else was right; Bowden really did have to trade Soriano. Bowden, in his spitefulness and desire to come off as a genius, refused to cave in to reality. While he should have met some team in the middle and gotten the Soriano deal done anyway, he refused. Now, he's screwed. Everybody else was right and, just to prove them wrong and demand his pound of flesh, Bowden refused to admit it. So now he's stuck with Soriano in what has been a pretty big public relations blunder.

Now everybody knows that Bowden is stuck with him. He's embarassed. My prediction is that Bowden will now do whatever it takes to sign Soriano to an extension, doing it simply as the only way to cover his blunder. If he lets Soriano leave, all the critics will be proven right; but if he re-signs him, at least he'll have something to show for it: a superstar free agent.

But, once again, everybody else was right: he can't re-sign Soriano. Or at least, he shouldn't. Bowden can't afford to pay Soriano's asking price, especially since Soriano is an overvauled player in the midst of a bizarrely successful year. Soriano knows he's in the driver's seat and can name his price. The Nationals can't afford to pay one player what Soriano will cost, nor can they commit themselves to such a long-term contract. They have a barren farm system and little help at the major league level. By the time they're able to contend, Soriano will be long gone. He won't be the difference in contending and not contending, so there's no need to pay him through the nose.

Will Bowden do it? I have every confidence that Bowden will make the brazen, bone-headed move. It comes with the territory when you're dealing with Trader Jim.

Miguel Tejada, Baltimore Orioles

Expensive though he is, Miguel Tejada is still very good and still a big part of the Orioles. That said, I'm not too surprised he wasn't traded. The Orioles can afford to wait until the off-season (or whenever) and get the offer they want for Tejada. In that sense, they're in the opposite position from Bowden; they don't have to trade Tejada, and everybody knows it.

That said, they shouldn't wait for a money tree to grow in their backyard; they should get a good deal while they still can. It was rumored that the Angels offered them pitcher Ervin Santana, but the Orioles passed. If they did, it was insanity, but I've heard recently that Santana was never actually offered.

Another thing to blame could be the traditionally slow-moving Oriole management. If making the right trade to Tejada means striking while the iron is hot, the Orioles may not be able to do it. Their organization moves with all the speed and grace of a wooly mammoth.

Roger Clemens, Houston Astros

The big story after the trading deadline was about a trade that almost went through: a trade that would have sent Roger Clemens to the Red Sox. Now, nobody knows just how close it was to being completed, but some sources have said that the only thing stopping it was Houston owner Drayton McLane's veto.

So, hypothetically speaking, would trading Roger Clemens be the right thing for the Astros to do? I would say yes, but only in exchange for something really good. The rumor is that the Astros asked for two of Boston's top pitching prospects, and the Red Sox passed. I don't blame the Astros for asking, and I also don't blame them for setting the bar that high in the hopes that the Red Sox would get desperate and make the deal. But, unlike others, Boston GM Theo Epstein doesn't tend to make desperate deals that hurt his ballclub. It's a credit to him that he valued his top-notch prospects more than a 2-month reunion with Clemens, no matter how much of a media orgy would ensue.

The Clemens trade falls back to the media and fans fantasizing about "what might have been." But in a purely business sense, I can't blame the Astros for not trading away a marquee player (who just signed 2 months ago after a well-publicized bidding war) and a living legend unless they got great returns. I also can't blame the Red Sox for mortgaging away their future for said living legend, good though he may still be, for just a 2-month rental. It may have been the "right" thing to do for Clemens, or the fans, or for history, but it wasn't the right thing to do for the baseball team. So, good move, gentlemen.

That's all. Until later . . .

Salary figures are courtesy of Cot's Baseball Contracts. Thanks, as always, to Rob Neyer, Keith Law, Jayson Stark, Baseball Prospectus' DT cards, mlb.com, and The Baseball Cube.

Trade Deadline Pt. 2

Let's have a good look at the AL teams and see if we can determine a few certainties. The Tigers are in for sure, but everything else looks murky. The Red Sox are leading the East, but only by a hair, over the Yankees. The AL West is still a 4-team race, although I decline to include Seattle as a serious contender. But, other than the Tigers, you have 8 teams in the AL fighting for three playoff spots.
Even if we get a good idea of who's going to win the East and the West, we've still got 5 teams with a decent shot at the Wild Card. Right now, however, it's a dead heat between the Yankees, Twins, and White Sox. Realistically, I think there's a 75-80% chance that one of those three teams wins the Wild Card. It's possible that the Yankees could surge and win the East, which would just mean that the Red Sox would be fighting off the Twins and Chi-towners for the last playoff spot.
Regardless of how you look at it, there are going to be some close, hot races come September. And unlike the NL, most of the teams involved are very good, and there will be so damn fine baseball teams going home in October. (Records are through July 29)
AL EAST:
New York Yankees (1.5 GB in East; 0.5 GB in the Wild Card)
Good news: The Yanks are right in the thick of it, despite injuries that have limited their offense and the fact that they still have little or no pitching depth. So it's good news for Yankee fans that the Bombers are right at the top of the heap and are primed to get even better in the coming weeks. The latest news from ESPN's Jayson Stark is that the Yanks have all but finished a deal for Philadelphia's Bobby Abreu. This would be a blockbuster trade for New York and a HUGE upgrade in their outfield. A lot has been said about Abreu's lack of power this year, but his tremendous patience (.427 OBP this year; career .412) still makes him a very valualbe player, and odds are that the power will come back. Abreu is getting older (32 this year) and more expensive, but the Yankees are one of the few teams that can afford him.
Another thing to consider is that Hideki Matsui will be back in a matter of weeks. This will give the Yankees a full, potent offensive outfield for the first time since May (Matsui, Damon, Abreu). Combine that with a killer infield, a still-potent catcher, and Gary Sheffield as DH (if he makes it back in time), and the Yankees could have the best offense in baseball by the end of the year.
The other aspect of the Abreu deal would send Philadelphia starter Cory Lidle to the Bronx. Lidle is the perfect example of a "league-average innings-muncher," or LAIM. He's not that great (4.74 ERA, 4.54 career), but his peripherals aren't too shabby, and he shouldn't give up nearly as many homers in Yankee Stadium. He's not great, but then he's a far sight better than Shawn Chacon, Aaron Small, and Sidney Ponson. He's also reliable, durable, and relatively cheap. He's not the best in the world, but the Yanks weren't going to get anybody better on the trade market.
Considering that the Yankees have been almost exactly as good as the Red Sox so far, this could make them not just Wild Card contenders but possible challengers for the division title. While the Red Sox are a strong team, too, they may not be able to survive a Yankee onslaught in August and September.
Bad News: The Yankees are still old, and their pitching staff is still troublesome. There are no guarantees that the Yankees will continue to pitch as well as they have so far. Jaret Wright can't be relied upon, and Scott Proctor is as overworked as any reliever in baseball. Mike Mussina has been brilliant thus far, but is he really free from the injuries and inconsistency that have plagued him the last couple years?
Conclusion: The Yankees make the playoffs -- somehow.

Boston Red Sox (Lead AL East by 1.5 games)
Good news: The Red Sox have held on this long. Their pitching staff is still a work in progress, but their season has been literally saved by not only rookie closer Jon Papelbon, but a whole group of young starters that has emerged to give them quality starts. Curt Schilling has been a godsend (but can he stay healthy?), and Tim Wakefield has been reliable as ever, although he's currently on the DL. After that, it's been a mess. Josh Beckett has struggled mightily (4.76 ERA, which no one notices thanks to his 13-5 record), Matt Clement is in the midst of a meltdown, David Wells has been walking wounded, and trade acquisition Jason Johnson (6.35 ERA) hasn't exactly stopped the bleeding. However, the good news is that the Sox have gotten quality work from Jon Lester (3.49 ERA in 10 starts) and keep trying different pitchers in the #5 spot. Once Wells returns and Wakefield comes back from the DL, the Sox might just have a rotation solid enough to get them into October.
Bad news: All of the above is a big "if." And I didn't even mention the offense.
The Sox have holes at second base, shortstop, center field, and catcher. The fact that these holes are already filled by underperforming veterans (Mark Loretta, Coco Crisp, Jason Varitek, et al) makes them much harder to fill. The Sox can live with Loretta's production and hope that Crisp rebounds. There's nothing they can do with Varitek, but they could explore shortstop solutions. Alex Gonzalez ain't cutting it. Don't be surprised if Theo Epstein does something to shore up his offense -- even if it means working "creatively."
Conclusion: It's their race to lose, but considering the teams they're up against and the fragile nature of their roster, they may do just that.

Toronto Blue Jays (6 GB in East; 5 GB in Wild Card)
The Jays aren't really contenders; I don't see them moving past the Yankees and Red Sox, or the White Sox and Twins. But they're there, not a huge distance away, and so they at least merit discussion, although they're not a serious part of the discussion.
Good news: The Jays have gotten unprecedented production from their old underachievers. The biggest example would be the outfield: former disappointments Vernon Wells and Alexis Rios (currently on the DL) have had superstar-caliber years, and the left field platoon of Frank Catalanotto & Reed Johnson has been dynamite. Roy Halladay is healthy, Ted Lilly doesn't suck, and B.J. Ryan is mowing them down.
Bad news: Other than Ryan, the free agents haven't exactly been "difference-makers." Glaus and Overbay have been quite good (368/549/262 and 362/499/302, respectively), but haven't pushed the team into contention. A.J. Burnett has been constantly injured (big surprise) and Bengie Molina left his bat in LA (316/406/277).
Sure, they haven't been awful, but I don't think they're quite what Mr. Ricciardi had in mind. Despite Halladay, their pitching staff is patchy at best, and I seriously doubt Alexis Rios is this good.
Conclusion: A pretty expensive step forward.

AL CENTRAL
Chicago White Sox (8.5 GB in Central, 0.5 games ahead in Wild Card)
Good news: The White Sox have a proactive GM who has the money and the know-how to swing some high-impact deadline deals. Their offense is a pretty big improvement over last year's club, thanks to career years from Joe Crede and Jermaine Dye and the unexpected return to dominance by Jim Thome.
Bad news: The AL Central race is all but over, and now all the Sox can do is throw themselves into the 3-team Wild Card race with gusto.
I expected that the starting rotation wouldn't be able to match the brilliant 2005 they managed. But I really didn't think that they would all, with the exception of Jose Contreras, take a big step back. Their starters' ERA has increased by nearly a full run. There's not a whole lot Kenny Williams can do about it, except try and trade away one of the more expensive ones (preferably Vazquez) and slot Brandon McCarthy into the #5 hole. A player like Vazquez could bring back a pretty good hitter; the Sox's biggest hole is in center field. Any ideas, Kenny?
Conclusion: If the pitching staff can't get it turned around, the Sox miss the playoffs.

Minnesota Twins (10.5 GB in Central, 2 GB in Wild Card)
Good news: The Twins have been such a surprise thus far that their season has to be considered a success, even if they miss the playoffs. They have very few expectations surrounding them, whereas the White Sox are seen to be on the brink of disaster.
The Twins have a duo of dominant starting pitchers that could very well prove to be historic. If Francisco Liriano stays healthy, then it won't be a stretch at all to compare him and teammate Johan Santana to Koufax/Drysdale or Johnson/Schilling. The Twins have the two best pitchers in the American League on their staff. They've also still got a pretty darn good bullpen, anchored by unsung hero Joe Nathan.
The best news is that the Twins are starting to hit better. Don't get me wrong -- they've still got a lot of holes to fill in that lineup, but they've come along way since last year. But with that pitching staff, you don't really need a ton of offense.
Joe Mauer has been absolutely sensational and Justin Morneau has finally reached his potential as a slugger. Add in solid work from Michael Cuddyer and Nick Punto, and you're left with a less-than-awful lineup.
Bad news: The back end of the rotation has collapsed like a flan in the cupboard. Carlos Silva, Brad Radke, Kyle Lohse -- all of them have been total crap. The Twins could really use somebody else behind Santana and Liriano to create some depth.
They also need a new shortstop, a new outfielder or two, a new DH, and maybe a third baseman. Considering how well they've done without these things (and with a terrible year from 2B Luis Castillo), just one pickup to fill these holes would put them right at the top of the Wild Card list. However, GM Terry Ryan is notoriously conservative and reluctant to trade prospects. Can he strike while the iron is hot and cement a postseason berth for this team?
Conclusion: Twins make it a very close race, but come just short. They'll be back next year -- thereby making the AL Central a dynamite division.

AL WEST
Oakland Athletics (0.5 games up in AL West)
Good news: The A's have been underachieving all year long to a huge extent. The fact that they're still in the race at this point means that they have plenty of time to recover and take over the AL West. They've got a dynamic duo at the front of the rotation in Dan Haren and Barry Zito, and Huston Street appears to be back on track as closer. Frank Thomas is healthy and hitting, and Milton Bradley is healthy, although we'll see how healthy.
Bad news: The A's have a truly abysmal offense, possibly the worst in the AL. They're at the bottom of the league in production by the infield, including catcher Jason Kendall, with the only bright spot being 3B Eric Chavez. Their outfield, with the exception of Nick Swisher, has been a similar disappointment, with Bradley injured and Mark Kotsay struggling. There's always the possibility that some of these players will bounce back -- Chavez, Bobby Crosby, and Bradley being the most likely -- but there are no guarantees. And even that may be too late.
Not only that, but the A's vaunted rotation depth has deserted them. It doesn't look like ace Rich Harden will be back this year, and it doesn't look like the A's want Esteban Loaiza back (6.72 ERA). I thought the Loaiza signing looked like a really bad move, and boy it was even worse than that. And with Harden and Joe Blanton unable to pick up the slack, the A's are left with a less-than-dominant pitching staff. And they're going to need a dominant pitching staff to win with that offense.
Conclusion: I still think they're the best team in that division, but I'm doubting that they will win.

Los Angeles Angels (0.5 GB in West; 8.5 GB in Wild Card)
Good news: The Angels have the best starting rotation in the West, and maybe the best in baseball. John Lackey is an ace; Jered Weaver pitches like one; Ervin Santana is a fine young pitcher, and Kelvim Escobar is a capable fourth man. And all of this is with de facto "ace" Bartolo Colon injured and struggling. If they can get Colon back, look out. Because if this rotation aligns with their fine bullpen (K-Rod and Shields are still golden), the Angels don't need to hit much to win.
Bad news: Yeah, but they have to hit something. Chone Figgins has turned back into a pumpkin, and Garret Anderson appears to be nearing retirement, and he's only 34! The Angels have gotten nothing from the right side of their infield, and only marginally better production from the left (Orlando Cabrera isn't all that great). The Angels have been saved by the rejuvenation of Tim Salmon, the return to form of Vladimir Guerrero, and the call-up of catcher Vince Napoli. It's true that there are many more good young players in the Angel system ready to contribute in the majors. The bad news is that it may be too late to save this year.
Conclusion: Their pitching is excellent, and I think their hitting will improve. If GM Stoneman can acquire a bat at the deadline (Hint: MIGUEL TEJADA), then they're certainly favorites.

Texas Rangers (3 GB in West; 11 GB in Wild Card)
Like the Angels, it's the AL West title or nothing for Texas.
Good news: The Rangers have gotten much better pitching this year. Despite trading away capable Chris Young, the Rangers have gotten surprisingly good production from starters such as Vicente Padilla and Kevin Millwood. Sure, their back 3 are pretty poor, but at least they're durable and better than awful; that's an improvement for the Rangers. They'll also soon be getting Adam Eaton back from injury; Eaton has somehow gotten the reputation of an above-average pitcher, but he should at least solidify the back end of the rotation. Credit also goes to a surprisingly good bullpen, anchored by Akinori Otsuka.
More good news was forthcoming yesterday, when the Rangers traded away relatively little to get Carlos Lee and Nelson Cruz. Cruz is a big help in the fourth outfielder slot, and Lee is a huge upgrade over Kevin Mench. The Rangers may not be done dealing, and another good trade could send them over the top in this tough division. If the Tigers are this year's #1 surprise, the Rangers have to come in second.
Bad news: I said the pitching was relatively good; I didn't say it was good. Even by Ameriquest Field standards, the Rangers haven't been doing a good job preventing runs. They're going to need all the offensive firepower they can get. And while the Lee trade certainly helps, we have to point out that the Ranger infield is a big step worse than it was last year. The exception would be Michael Young, but Mark Teixeira and Hank Blalock especially need to do a better job producing.
Conclusion: Respectable finish, but no postseason.

You may wonder why I didn't include the Mariners. I didn't include them because they're in last place in the AL West and nowhere near the Wild Card. Yes, they're only 3.5 games out in the West; but while every other team in the West is likely to get better over the enxt few months, the Mariners really aren't, trades or no trades. I could see them passing one of these teams; I could not see them passing all three. Good season, but no postseason; sorry.
As far as the Tigers go, they're dominating all of baseball. I wish I could explain it, but I can't, at least not entirely. Their offense is mostly legit, and is one of the best in the league; top 5, easily. It's their ability to prevent runs that has been tops in the AL by a few miles. This is thanks to a solid defense and a dynamite pitching staff. I don't think Nate Robertson is for real, although that doesn't mean he'll stop pitching like he is. I swear Kenny Rogers is going to get old someday, but I guess it won't be this year. After that, you've got Bonderman, who is very good, and Verlander, who is uber-good. I honestly can't believe I'm saying this, but I think the Tigers are the favorites to win the World Series. The AL postseason will certainly be interesting, but if I had to guess, I'd put my money on a Tigers/Mets series. Not a longshot, I know. But either way, one team would come out with some major redemption.
And I have to say that although I don't often talk a lot about managers or give them as much credit as others do, I have to acknowledge the presence of Jim Leyland as a positive influence in Detroit. The success of the Tigers is so unfathomable, and Leyland's track record so impressive, that there's really no other conclusion to come to.

I'll update after the trade deadline is over, outlining all the major deals and going into more detail. I already mentioned the Abreu trade, but a few other nuggets: word is that Soriano will definitely be traded as soon as Jim Bowden lowers his asking price; I've heard the Twins and Tigers mentioned, which is a scary thought. Miguel Tejada will likely be traded, unless the impotent Baltimore ownership is unable to process the paperwork in time. He would be a big help to a lot of teams, from Houston to Anaheim.

Peace out . . .

Trade Deadline

As the trade deadline approaches, there are many teams caught on the fence as to whether or not they should buy or sell. At the end of play July 26, there were seven NL teams within 6 games of the Wild Card-leading Reds. Three more teams are within 8 games, meaning that the only two NL teams safely out of the running are the Cubs and Pirates. Who else can we eliminate from the picture?
Everyone in the NL West is still a contender, although the Rockies (6.5 games back) and Dodgers (7.5 back) are falling dangerously out of the race. I'm tempted to dismiss the Rockies, although they have gotten fine pitching this year. The Dodgers are, on paper, the best team in the division, but it hasn't helped them much thus far. If they don't stop their current slide (1-13 in their last 14), they will most definitely be out of the running.
I'll eliminate the Nationals and the Marlins from contention. Neither team is challenging the Mets in the East; the Nats are 8 games out in the WC race, and the Marlins are 6 out -- with 7 teams in front of them. Neither club has the ability or the front-office wherewithal to make a move at the trade deadline, and neither should they. Both should look to the future and trade away any unnecessary parts. In the latter regard, the Marlins already have, and the Nats most certainly will. I'm also going to lump the Phillies into this category; they're not likely to get any better than they are (6.5 back in the WC race), and already appear to be shopping their players around.
This leaves 11 teams more or less in the NL postseason race -- and that's being very generous to LA, Colorado, and Milwaukee. Of the three division leaders -- New York, St. Louis, and San Diego as of now -- are any of them assured of a postseason spot?
The Mets definitely are. They lead the NL East by 11.5 games over Atlanta. Yes, meltdowns have happened before, but it would take a historic meltdon for the Mets to miss the postseason. I would also say that the Cardinals are a good bet for a postseason shot. Yes, they're "only" 5.5 games up on Cincinnati, but the Reds are a worse team since the Kearns trade, and not likely to get better. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have one of the best traders in the league at GM in Walt Jocketty, not to mention a very good history of producing when they need to. So I'll mark down the Mets and Cardinals as shoo-ins. No such luck for San Diego (2.5 game lead), as a stiff wind could send them down to 3rd or 4th place.
So, in effect, we have 5 teams not good enough to make the playoffs this year, and 2 teams that are pretty much already in, leaving 9 teams on the cusp. Let's discuss these "on the cusp" teams and talk about what trades have been talked about, what trades should be talked about, and an ideal game plan for these hopefuls over the coming week.
NL EAST
Atlanta Braves (11.5 GB in the East; 4.5 GB in the WC)
Thanks to an offensive explosion in July, the Braves have put themselves back into the Wild Card conversation. They're now just 4 games under .500 (48-52), and in 4th place in the WC chase. Any talks of trading away John Smoltz or Andruw Jones have since fallen by the wayside as the Braves look to make another miracle.
Good news: The Braves have a very canny GM, the bargaining chips to get an impact player, and the minor league depth to help replace some losses.
Bad news: The Braves are just too far out of contention. Even if they were to secure a major upgrade somewhere, that wouldn't mean much over 2 months of play. Also, most of the talent available on the trade market is in bats; there is very little out there in terms of pitching, which makes it a seller's market for hurlers. Offense is not Atlanta's problem; pitching is the problem, pitching times 10. The Braves now lead the NL in runs scored with 535, so Alfonso Soriano isn't what they're looking for.
The Braves' problem is their 507 runs allowed, ranking them 11th of 16 NL teams. Their only productive starter has been John Smoltz, and their bullpen is a shambles. They did make a trade to secure Bob Wickman, but since Wickman isn't actually that great anymore (3.77 ERA notwithstanding), it's not enough to turn the ship around. If the Braves want to win 90 games (an estimate of what it would take to win the WC), they would have to finish the season 42-20. In other words, they'd have to find some way to turn their average team into a dominant one. And that just ain't happenin'.
Conclusion: Throw in the towel, Mr. Schuerholz, the run is over. Trade off whom you can.

NL CENTRAL
Cincinnati Reds (5.5 GB in the Central; Leading Wild Card by 1.5 games)
Good news: Since the Reds are leading the Wild Card, they're in the position of just having to maintain what they've done so far. They've got a 53-48 record so far, and they're on pace for an 85-77 record. The worst record EVER by a Wild Card-winner was an 88-74 mark by the '96 Orioles. So if the Reds do win the Wild Card this year, it will simply be by default.
Bad news: This is assuming that the Reds will play as good in the second half as they did in the first. And given the general quality of their pitching, not to mention the awful Kearns trade, that's unlikely. But even if the Reds do finish 85-77, it's quite likely that some team will put together a hot second half and pass them up. I'm inclined to believe that. So many of these teams have been mediocre, that there must be one of them able to put together a hot second half. And I doubt it will be the Reds.
Conclusion: Enjoy it while you can, boys. Your chances weren't that great, and your GM ain't doing you any favors.
Houston Astros (10.5 GB in Central; 5 GB in Wild Card)
Good news: It looks more and more like the Astros could be the surprise NL Wild Card once again. They've got a solid foundation of pitching (although they need Andy Pettitte and Brad Lidge to return to form), meaning that their top priority is hitting, an item which is quite available on the open market. With Bagwell retiring, Biggio soon to follow, and Clemens and Pettite right behind them, the Astros have the ability to add some payroll, even if it's a long-term commitment. I've heard talks about the Astros acquiring Miguel Tejada; this would be a great move, as it doesn't look like Adam Everett is ever going to hit like a big-leaguer (excellent defender though he is). Any impact bat acquired for the outfield would be a major upgrade over the likes of Preston Wilson, Willy Taveras, and Jason Lane. And, as I said before, the Wild Card race is wide open to anyone who can muster 90 wins (or less, perhaps).
Bad news: The Astros may not have the ability to add big money, such as a Bobby Abreu-type contract, given how much they're ponying up to Roger Clemens. And even if they can, they might have a hard time cinching the deal with their bare farm system. Also, even if they were able to get one impact player, that still might not be enough to shore up a truly woeful offense. And, as I said before, this is all contingent on the pitching staff -- namely Pettite and Lidge, as well as Brandon Backe and the middle relievers -- holding up their end of the bargain.
Conclusion: If they can get some offensive help, they just might be the favorites.
Milwaukee Brewers (11 GB in Central, 5.5 GB in the Wild Card race)
Good news: They've got an excellent offense and the young prospects to make trading easier and replacing departed players feasible. They're also getting back Ben Sheets from injury (Tomo Ohka recently made a solid return from the DL), which is great news for their starting rotation.
Bad news: Their pitching is terrible, and it may be too late to save it, Sheets notwithstanding. Chris Capuano has been excellent, and Ohka is a solid #3, so if they get Sheets back (and healthy), they'll at least have a solid front three. But that leaves two more rotation spots and an awful bullpen to fix.
It also just might be too late. Yes, they're just 5.5 out of the Wild Card race, but there are 5 teams in front of them, one team tied with them, and 3 teams a mere game behind them. It's very tough odds that the Brewers will come out of that group on top.
Conclusion: What I hope (and what I imagine will happen) is that the Brewers decide they aren't in it, and plan for next year. This is a tough decision, especially on the PR front, but there is no pressure for the Brewers to contend this year, and it would be a hopeless waste to sacrifice the future for such an unlikely present. I have faith that GM Doug Melvin will come to a similar conclusion.

NL West
San Diego Padres (2.5 game lead in the NL West)
Good News: The Padres have a lead (bare though it is), and have been there before, just last year. They've got a GM who is willing (and financially able) to make an impact trade.
Bad news: Most people may not realize that good though the Padre pitching staff is, it's not quite as good as Petco makes it look. But top priority should, indeed, be upon the offense. The entire infield has been disappointing, with second and third base especially open for an upgrade. The trouble with picking any winner in the NL West is that the five teams are all so close that even Nostradamus would have a hard time making a good guess.
Conclusion: They're probably the favorites in the West -- at least for now.
San Francisco Giants (3 GB in the West; 2 GB in the Wild Card)
Good news: The Giants are closer than most anybody else, and they're still in the race for both postseason spots. They've got a GM who isn't afraid to trade and has certainly never blinked at taking on a high-paid old geezer to help in the short run. Barry Bonds seems to be heating up a bit, and the team has already made a decent trade, acquiring Shea Hillenbrand to fill the 1B hole.
Bad news: Their problem is pitching, and the market is bare. This is the main reason why I resist calling the Giants the favorites in the West. Jason Schmidt has been very good, and the team is hoping that Noah Lowry has some more second-half miracles in his sack, but the truth is that it will take more than that to turn around a woeful staff.
Conclusion: Giants miss the playoffs by a hair -- for the third straight year. Barry Bonds and Jason Schmidt file for free agency, and GM Brian Sabean is officially on the hot seat.
Arizona Diamondbacks (2.5 GB in the West; 1.5 GB in the Wild Card)
Good news: The Diamondbacks have the best young among all the teams mentioned here, meaning they could offer top-notch packages to acquire their free agents. They could also even trade away some of their own high-priced talent to free up money (Shawn Green, Luis Gonzalez, Eric Byrnes, Craig Counsell) and replace them with rookies who could match or even exceed their production.
Bad news: Same as above: the D-Backs need pitching, and help is not forthcoming. Most of their young prospects are position players. Not only that, but Arizona's pitching problems couldn't just be solved by one pitcher; it would take more. Hitting-wise, their main weakness is their infield, which is tough, since most of the hitters available are corner-outfielder types.
Conclusion: Don't bet the farm away (not that I think GM Josh Byrnes will). They'll come close and be a in a better position to contend next year than most of their division-mates.
Colorado Rockies (6.5 GB in the West; 5.5 GB in the WC)
Good news: I don't know if enough attention has been paid to the amazing transformation undergone by the Rockies this year. They have allowed just 457, the least in all of the National League. Think twice about what I just said and how unbelievably unlikely it sounds. It's like finding out that George Bush had an 85% approval rating among African-Americans; it's just not POSSIBLE. Counter that with the fact that the Rockies have scored just 466 runs, 14th of 16 NL teams.
Bad news: This means that not only are their pitchers much better than they seem -- thanks too Coors Field -- but their hitters are even worse. The Rockies have gotten good production from Todd Helton, Garret Atkins, Matt Holliday, and that's it. The Rockies aren't in any position to acquire players via trades (nor should they), and they're another team that's unlikely to perform as well in the second half.
Conclusion: No postseason appearance, but a great leap forward for the franchise.
Los Angeles Dodgers: (7.5 GB in the West; 6.5 GB in the WC)
Good news: The Dodgers are,on paper, the best team in the NL West.
Bad news: The games aren't played on paper, and for whatever reason -- injuries, mostly -- the Dodgers don't really have a prayer to make the postseason.
Conclusion: Check Chavez Ravine for any disgruntled spirits.

Of course, all of the above should be viewed in context of my previous blog; that although a good trade-deadline acquisition can help the team, their impact is overrated, and therefore GMs should be reluctant to give up top prospects to complete them.
Not only am I the one making this argument. Rob Neyer made it on espn.com, Steve Treder made it over at The Hardball Times, and Baseball Prospectus writer Dayn Perry made it in his fine book Winners: How Good Baseball Teams Become Great Ones (And It's Not the Way You Think). It's also been a constant topic of discussion for former Baseball Prospectus writer and current espn.com columnist Keith Law. So, ha ha! My colleagues (and I use that term with trepidation) agree with me!

I'll be back tomorrow to discuss the American League, although it's thankfully a shorter discussion. There are many similarities; the Tigers, like the Mets are coasting into the postseason, and the Western division is a mess with no certain outcomes. However, in the AL, the list of Wild Card contenders is much shorter -- three or four. Although that won't stop it from being a thrilling race; as of July 26, there were 3 AL teams within 1/2 game of the Wild Card lead.

Later, kiddies. Say no to drugs, and apparently to Harold Reynolds as well . . .