In Which Rafael Furcal Makes a Boo-Boo

• Rafael Furcal's agents apparently had a deal with the Braves for Furcal to sign with Atlanta. But instead of doing so, Furcal took the deal (which had already been agreed upon, according to the Braves) and used it to extort a better deal from the Dodgers, who ended up actually signing Furcal. Furcal's agents are claiming that no deal was agreed to, but the Braves say that they sent the term sheet to Furcal's agents -- which is, in baseball, equivalent to a handshake deal. Furcal's agents reneged, and the Braves are seriously angry. They've vowed never to deal with Furcal's agents again.
  I don't know who's telling the truth, but the Braves' story seems more plausible. Granted, no deal in baseball is really official until the commissioner and the player's union sign off on it. But a deal is a deal is a deal, and to go against that rule will seriously hurt your integrity in the future. Furcal's agents aren't stars; they're not people that teams have to work with to get the good players. It seems they made a pretty serious miscalculation, not to mention a breach of ethics, even if no rules were broken. And the person who will end up getting booed over it is none of these guys, but rather Furcal himself.
• Since writing up the Raul Ibanez deal in my last post, I've changed my opinion somewhat. This is mainly due to a fact that I should have remembered when they signed the deal -- Ibanez is a Type-A free agent, meaning that the Phillies lose their first round draft pick to Seattle. On the other hand, the Phillies did not offer Pat Burrel arbitration at all, so they won't get anything in return from the team that ends up signing him.
  This makes it that much more mystifying that the Phillies didn't re-sign Burrell. He's not going to command much more money than Ibanez, is younger, and wouldn't have cost them the draft pick. And if the Phils had no intention of bringing him back, why not offer him arbitration? The worst-case scenario is that he accepts, and gets maybe $16 million for one year. That is overpaying on a yearly basis, but considering the money they spent on Ibanez, I'd rather spend the extra $6 million in 2009 on Burrell, keep the draft pick, and end up with the better player without committing yourself for two more years to a player in his late 30's. In a vacuum, the Ibanez deal isn't terrible, but considering the circumstances surrounding it and especially the mismanagement of draft picks, it wasn't the best decision by the Phillies.
• Since my last post, A.J. Burnett has signed with the Yankees for 5 years and $82.5 million. It came down to the Yankees and the Braves, and the Yankees were (apparently) the first team ready to offer the fifth year. This amounts to a little over $16 MM per season. At his best, Burnett is worth that. But throughout his career, he's had maybe three seasons at his best. The gamble concerns which A.J. Burnett will show up in New York.
  I'm not incredibly optimistic. Some people have gone so far as to compare this to the Carl Pavano signing, but it's not nearly that bad; Burnett has a much better track record and is just a better pitcher than Pavano was.
  But Burnett only seems to turn that potential into reality in free-agent walk years. He's gotten a reputation (which may or may not be true) as a pitcher who doesn't like to pitch unless he's 100%. That could explain why he's only topped 200 innings three times in his career, and has only topped 165 innings three times in the past six years. Burnett's actual injury history isn't so bad, but that's small consolation if he averages less than 180 innings per year over the life of the contract. Burnett does have high upside, so I can understand why the Yankees would take a chance on him. And they are, more than any other team, able to absorb bad contracts.
  But the biggest problem with this is that it may hurt the Yankees in their quest for Mark Teixeira. Teixeira hasn't been solidly linked to the Yankees, even though they need him more than any team that's bidding for him, except the Angels. The Yankees haven't had a good first baseman in years, and if they fail to grab this low-hanging fruit at a price that's utterly affordable to them, then they have to be faulted for it. The Yankee offense is what projects to be a problem in the future -- not the defense. The offense took a big step down last year, and it's not going to get much better, since everyone's so old. So signing a free agent younger than 35 (what a novel idea!) to play the field would be jim-dandy. But the Yankees made the decision to go after three starting pitchers in the offseason, which is a bizarre case of overkill, since a good first baseman should rank above at least two of those pitchers.
• This espn.com headline is hilarious: Orioles fill gap at short, sign Izturis for two years. It's a slim market for shortstops, I know, but Cesar Izturis is a backup shortstop. So the Orioles have improved their defense, but at the cost of giving up on one spot in the lineup.
• The Cubs signed non-tendered outfielder Joey Gathright. Because yeah, the Cubs don't have enough outfielders. This surely means they're going to trade Felix Pie, since Gathright has a lot of the skills as the youngster, he's just generally worse at them. Shouldn't the Cubs be worried more about their infield? Can they seriously pencil in Ryan Theriot and Mark Fontenot into their Opening Day lineup?
• Manny Ramirez is apparently upset at all the attention everyone else is getting and even threatened to retire if a good deal doesn't show up. Isn't he just a hoot?
• Despite the fact that owner Fred Wilpon was among those swindled by New York's latest Wall Street swindler "Madman" Madoff, it doesn't appear that it will affect the Mets' financial situation. And hey, even if he does end up out of money, the Mets could just slot him in the rotation -- it's not like they have anybody better for that #5 spot . . .
• The Red Sox have just announced that they're bowing out of the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes. Some people wondered all along that the Sox might just be in it to raise his price before the Yankees sign him. But the Yankees don't appear to be in the race to sign him right now -- why not, I don't know. It's now down to Baltimore, Washington, and the Angels. Washington would be utterly stupid to invest so much of their payroll in one player, when what they need is a complete overhaul. But apparently Jim Bowden can do anything he wants and still keep his job, even if it means being investigated by the government.
• New Mets closer Francisco Rodriguez got a little of people excited and angry when he said that the Mets were the "team to beat" in the NL East. This is, so far this year, the dumbest reason to get pissed off about something. Wait until he says that the Mets are "contenders" -- he'll just be the center of a firestorm of controversy! WOW! (Please buy a newspaper ...)
• Speaking of which, baseball was tangentially related to the controversy surrounding Illinois governor Rod Blagojevich. Blagojevich apparently threatened Chicago Tribune/Cubs owner Sam Zell to tone down criticism by the Tribune's editorial board, or else he would make things difficult for him. Zell was said to be thinking it over. No, seriously . . .
  By the way, I'll give big money to the first person who, on national TV, shakes hands with Governor Blagojevich, then yells out, "He SLIMED me!"

Until next time.

Winter Meetings Round-Up

• The Yanks ended up getting C.C. Sabathia for a 7-year deal worth about $161 MM ($23 MM AAV). Considering where the Yankees are, I can see how this is the right move for them. They've been pressured to sign a free agent starter in past offseasons and ended up with the likes of Jaret Wright and Carl Pavano. This time there was a legitimate ace out there, and the Yankees nabbed him. Not that there was a lot of doubt on that front.
  My personal take is that I would NEVER give any pitcher a 7-year contract. So many things about Sabathia's future are unknown; he's shouldered a very heavy workload, but it hasn't seemed to affect him yet. He's nearly 300 pounds, but it's hard to find any pitcher from the past to compare him to. I'm far too conservative fiscally to commit so much money to an unknown quantity. But as I say, the Yankees are in the unique position of being able to afford it.
  There are just two things that bug me, even taking that into account: 1) the Yanks could have had him for less money, as their haste to outbid everyone else and get the deal done early added to the final amount, and 2) Sabathia has an opt-out clause after the third year of the deal. An opt-out clause fully protects the player while providing no advantage to the signing team. The disadvantage is that the Yankees don't really have Sabathia signed for seven years; they have him signed for three years with a player option for four more. Apparently the Yanks felt that they had to include this in the contract to be "competitive." I'm quite skeptical of that. $161 million and a seventh year is competitive enough.
• Another Brewer who might soon become a Yankee is Mike Cameron. Rumor has it that the Brewers and Yanks are close to a deal that would send Cameron to the Bronx in exchange for Melky Cabrera. This would be a good money-saving move for the Brewers (and give them a center fielder for longer than one year), even if it hurts them in the short run. And it would give the Yankees a true center fielder who can hit to put in the lineup. The cost to them is minimal; Cabrera's time as a Yankee was done. We'll see if this deal gets done.
  The Mets signed Francisco Rodriguez to a 3-year deal worth about $37 million. This is far less than the 5-year $60 million deal that some were predicting at season's end. It's still probably overpaying, but the Mets can afford to do that, as can the Yankees. The worry here isn't so much with dollars as it is with years; the Mets were able to get the most coveted relief arm out there (whether he's the best is debatable) without having to add a fourth year. And considering the concerns about K-Rod's arm and performance, this deal is a better risk for New York.
  Now, K-Rod was not the best arm available, and he won't solve the Mets' problems alone. After I heard about this signing, I was worried that the Mets had been fooled by looking at Rodriguez's 60+ saves rather than his actual performance. But the Mets got themselves one heck of a backup soon after, trading for Seattle closer J.J. Putz.
  Putz is older and has a more troubling injury history, but he's also just better than K-Rod. Either one of them on their own would be a big gamble, but together you've got a really good combination to handle the late innings for the Mets. And should one of them go down, the team won't be toast, as they were when they lost Wagner this past season.
  The Mets gave up a lot of players for Putz, but very little of substance. They gave up Aaron Heilman -- whose performance has been spotty and was due for a change of scenery -- along with Joe Smith, who went to Cleveland in what was a three-team trade. They also give fourth outfielder Endy Chavez to Seattle, as well as forgotten starter Jason Vargas. Along with Putz, the Mets get Sean Green (a better bullpen option than Smith or Heilman) and Endy Chavez's lesser half, Jeremy Reed. The Mets also gave up three prospects, but no one they're likely to miss.
  How did the Mets get one of the game's best closers for so little? Apparently, Seattle was more interested in quantity than quality. Either that, or they just have a much higher opinion of Endy Chavez than we think. It should be said that Cleveland chipped in Franklin Gutierrez to Seattle. Gutierrez is a defensive plus who could slot into center field, if the M's can/will shift Ichiro back to right. Gutierrez's bat may not play in a corner. Endy Chavez is no Raul Ibanez, but he's a far sight better defensively. And Wladimir Balentien can fit in there somewhere to give the outfield more pop.
  Bottom-line, the Putz deal will end up helping the Mets much more than the K-Rod deal. Rodriguez will probably pitch more innings, but Putz will almost definitely be better. Get them both in there, and you're doing well.
• This morning's news is that Raul Ibanez has signed with the Phillies for a 3-year, $30 million deal. This fills the Phillies' hole in left field, but I'm not crazy about the deal. Ibanez will be 37 next year, and while he's been consistently good at the plate in Seattle, he's going to get old eventually. And, like Pat Burrel, he's a defensive liability. I don't mind giving Ibanez $10 MM per, but I don't see why the Phils had to go to three years.
• The Indians are close to signing Kerry Wood to a 2-year deal for an indeterminate amount. Wood is probably, per dollar, the best closer on the market. The Indians have needed an ace closer for some time now. Wood is not without risk, but the upside is so good that it's a steal to get him on a two-year deal. If the Indians can add another bat and another starter, they'll be back in the AL Central race.
• The Dodgers signed Casey Blake and Mark Loretta to fill out their infield. Blake isn't as good as people think, but he's a good enough placeholder. They just need to re-sign Manny to make sure their offense is up to snuff.
• The Reds traded Ryan Freel to the Orioles in exchange for catcher Ramon Hernandez. This fills the Reds' catching void with a decent player without giving up much in return. Freel gives the O's a super-sub, and getting rid of Hernandez clears the way for uber-prospect Matt Wieters to take over behind the plate whenever he's ready. The Reds just need to hope that Hernandez is more inspired this year; he's coming off two sub-par years that made his free agent deal with Baltimore a dud. The good news is that he tends to do very well in his walk years.
• The Tigers traded for the Rangers' catcher Gerald Laird and also signed free agent shortstop Adam Everett to a one-year deal. Everett is a good fit for the Tigers; he's a defensive whiz and the Tiger offense can compensate for his weak bat. Laird has probably the least upside of the Rangers' catchers, but is the most major-league ready. He's solid defensively and hits fine for a catcher. Now if the Tigers can just turn around their pitching staff, they'll be good.

And the deals that didn't happen:

• The Jake Peavy trade talks are dead, for the moment. Apparently it just got too complicated, with the Cubs having to move a lot of salary and with a lot of haggling over who would pay what to Jason Marquis and/or Mark DeRosa. I personally never thought the Cubs really needed Peavy that badly; he would help, but I wouldn't give up my #1 prospect (Josh Vitters) and more to get him, especially when I'm already out-pacing my division, and the offense is more of a problem.
• Mark Teixeira is yet to sign, despite a reportedly huge offer from the Nationals. The Angels still think they've got the inside track, and they'd better hope they do, because they need him more than anybody else.
• Apparently, the only team really interested in Manny Ramirez is the Dodgers. But don't count Scott Boras out; he's good at dragging in a team out of nowhere to start a bidding war.
• The other closer out there, Brian Fuentes, appears to be close to a deal with the Cardinals. The Cardinals are a team right on the edge of contention, so every little bit helps. If they could pick up a good second baseman somewhere, they might be able to contend. But a lot depends upon their patchwork starting rotation, especially the health of Chris Carpenter.

Also, Friday is non-tender day, when another batch of free agents -- players not tendered a contract by their team -- enter the market. There are no MVPs here, but some useful pieces certainly.

Welcome!

For those of you who are new to my site, thanks to the excerpt published in the 2009 Hardball Times Baseball Annual, I thought I'd offer you a short introduction to what I've been doing here for the past three-plus years. Feel free to browse around, comment, or e-mail me with any feedback.


END-OF-YEAR AWARDS:

11/13/08: The 4th Annual Whiz Kid Awards
Some usual, some unusual.
11/12/07: My Awards 2007, Part 2
The 3rd Annual Whiz Kid Awards (2 parts)
10/10/06: 2006 Awards
The 2nd Annual Whiz Kid Awards (2 parts)
10/5/05: The Awards Go To Somebody ...
The 1st Annual Whiz Kid Awards (4 parts)


GAME RECAPS:

10/12/08: NLCS Game 3 Running Commentary
My first experiment with a live blog.
10/2/07: Rockies 9, Padres 8
A one-game playoff for the ages.
8/8/07: A Birthday at the Ballpark
Back to the GABP, this time with pictures.
7/26/07: Reds Win? An Evening at the Ballpark
A stream-of-consciousness evening at the Great American Ballpark. A laid-back night, until Pedro Lopez gets hit in the face by a pitch.
5/1/07: Yankee Stadium: April 19, 2007
My first (and only) visit to the stadium culminates in a Yankee comeback capped off by an A-Rod walkoff homer against Joe Borowski.
10/26/05: 5 hours, 41 minutes ...
Game 3 of the 2005 World Series. I decided to try calling the game as an announcer, using just my own little tape recorder. It turned out to be the longest game in World Series history.

TRADES/FREE AGENCY:
12/31/06: Ringing in 2-007 with a Vodka Martini
A close look at the Zito contract. And: the union leaves the players' drug test results unprotected.
12/6/06: Deal or No Deal Redux
I was right about Padilla but wrong about Lugo.
11/19/06: Orgy of Spending
Jim Hendry unleashes the pocketbook, and more.

10/2/05: Bits and Pieces

Free agent news from the 2005 offseason, including some since-learned lessons about relief pitching.

PRESEASON PICKS REVISITED:
11/17/08: Preseason picks revisited
Let us not speak of this again.
11/16/07: Preseason picks revisited
So I was wrong about the Cubs.
10/13/06: Reflections on Preseason Predictions
Also included: a comic rant on the WebMD Injury Report.
10/03/05: Preseason Predictions

In which I actually picked the Rangers to win the division. But I got some stuff right, too.


THE BASEBALL CULTURE:

9/23/08: Hitting Curveballs
What Zack Greinke and I have in common. And it isn't a good pitching arm.
7/17/08: Oh My Blog
Weighing in on the Leitch/Bissinger fracas.
4/14/08: Rules is Rules
They either are or they aren't.
11/15/07: A-Rod and Barry
Alex opts out and Bonds is indicted.
5/5/07: Hancock and Alcohol
A discussion of baseball, alcohol and responsible reactions.
4/12/07: The Number 42
Discussing the "un-retiring" of Jackie Robinson's number.
12/30/06: Best Case/Worst Case
A comic guess at what 2007 meant for each team.
10/8/06: Dear Alex
In which I weigh in on "clutch."
1/18/06: The World Baseball Classic
This could also qualify as a rant.

10/27/05: Latino Legends

The insulting PR mess that was the Chevrolet Presents the Major League Baseball Latino Legends Team."

THE HALL OF FAME:

6/5/08: I am Ozzie, Hear Me Roar
Not only did this get me into the annual, it includes my Hall of Fame discussions of Manny Ramirez, Ken Griffey, Jr. and Omar Vizquel.
9/18/07: Jim Thome
Is 500 HR enough anymore?
8/9/07: Milestones
A series of milestones raise more Hall of Fame questions.
1/12/07: Future HOF Classes, Part 2
A look at future Cooperstown ballots (2 parts)
11/29/06: My 2007 Hall of Fame Ballot
There's a lot here.

11/27/06: Hall of Fame Arguments

I try to un-dismiss the McGwire candidacy.

10/1/06: Trevor Hoffman

A 2006-look at the Hall-worthiness of the closer.

2/17/06: Sammy Sosa

I discuss the Hall of Fame case for the embattled slugger.

1/12/06: Bruce Sutter

I argue against the induction of Sutter into the Hall and argue in favor of Goose Gossage.

10/18/05: Time to Leave
The players I would take OUT of the Hall of Fame. I've mellowed on several of these guys since then.
10/17/05: Cooperstown Worthy?
My Top 10 list of players who belong in the Hall but aren't in (2005 version).

A SHORT HISTORY OF EXPANSION:

12/13/05: An Expansion Pre-History

Prologue (1800s-1960)

12/14/05: Expansion, Pt. 2

The New Washington Senators

12/16/05: Expansion, Pt. 3
The Angels

1/2/06: NL Expansion: 1962

Part 4: The Mets

1/6/06: 1962: Houston Astros
Expansion Series Part 5

1/8/06: 1969 Expansion

Part 6: The Royals

2/7/06: 1969 Expansion, Pt. 2

Part 7: The Pilots/Brewers

2/13/06: 1969 Expansion, Pt. 3

Part 8: The Expos/Nats

2/16/06: 1969 Expansion, Final Part

Part 9: The Padres

5/17/06: 1977 Expansion (Updated)
Part 10: The Blue Jays

5/21/06: 1977 Expansion Pt. 2

Part 11: The Mariners

5/25/06: 1993 Expansion

Part 12: The Rockies

5/28/06: 1993 Expansion, Pt. 2

Part 13: The Marlins

6/1/06: 1998 Expansion (preview)

Part 14: Realignment

6/5/06: 1998 Expansion

Part 15: The Diamondbacks

7/19/06: 1998 Expansion Part 2

Final Part: The (Devil) Rays

BASEBALL BOOKS:

10/23/08: Weaver on Strategy
A fantastic baseball resource.
7/12/08: More Baseball Books
Including an extended discussion of Built to Win by Jon Schuerholz.
2/8/08: My Baseball Bookshelf
My favorite pastime.
12/17/07: Mr. Rickey
The wit and wisdom of Branch.
12/27/05: The Hardball Times Baseball Annual

A look inside.

STEROIDS/PEDS:

5/20/07: Giambi in the Hotseat
Buster Olney takes down Jason Giambi, and I attempt to rebut him.
6/7/06: Jason Grimsley
In which I predicted the public would freak out about HGH about a year before it actually happened.
3/31/06: Steroid Investigation

My first response to the announcement of the Mitchell Commission.

3/7/06: Game of Shadows

The forthcoming book about Barry Bonds and PEDs leaks out. Plus, a mention of the late Kirby Puckett.



THE PROCESS:

10/13/08: Javier Vazquez: Big Game Pitcher?
Ozzie Guillen challenges Vazquez's manhood. I check the facts.
4/26/08: How to Write a Baseball Play
Or at least, my experience in trying.
11/17/05: Turnover
Question: How much does roster turnover correlate with the future success of a World Champion?

11/5/05: Run Production

In which I chart run production throughout MLB history and learn a hell of a lot.

10/3/05: My Stats Background
My background as a baseball fan and what led me into sabermetrics and blogging.



RANTS:

3/25/08: ESPN.com Polls
An answer to some polls includes a defense of young players wanting their money now.
2/13/08: A Lesson in Hyperbole
Howard Bryant turns the Congressional hearings into a doomsday scenario. I beg to differ.
12/13/07: Mitchell
The Mitchell Report is released.
11/5/07: Pirate Shi*
Frank Coonelly makes an offhand remark that gets my dander up.
6/16/07: Selig Doesn't Get It
The sad progress of the Mitchell Commission and a sad note about Vince McMahon and Chris Benoit.
10/14/06: Hope and Faith

About the supposed lack of competitive balance in baseball.

8/21/06: DHL Hometown Heroes

Seriously, what was that about?

7/21/06: Fire Jim Hendry
This one doesn't look so hot today. But I stand by my analysis of his initial years as GM.

10/21/05: Current Players, Pt. 3

Two rants included: one on how overrated Ken Griffey, Jr. was, and how he wasn't a whole lot more valuable than Bernie Williams. Two, on how race influences our perceptions of players, particularly in response to Albert Belle.

Enjoy the read, and feel free to leave comments or observations.

Thanks a lot,

Aaron "WK" Whitehead