- There's an article on ESPN.com about the continuing story of corruption and bonus-skimming in the Caribbean, here specifically in the Dominican. This is a very important story for baseball, not least because it may implicate some very high-profile executives and team officials.
- This article was written a while ago; I just kept forgetting to mention it. SI's Tom Verducci has written a great column about the misuse and misunderstanding of relief pitchers in baseball. It's something that's been said many times, but having Verducci say it will make more of an impacy.
- Buried in this ESPN.com chat with Keith Law is one person's question that just delighted me. They were referring to the fact that it's nice for teams to come up with decent or mid-level players so that ownership will not be tempted to fill the whole with an expensive and grossly overrated free agent. He refers to such a mid-level player as an "Armando Benitez Protection Device." I would be thrilled if this phrase caught on.
- And this is just hilarious.
Friday, September 26, 2008
Quick links
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Hitting Curveballs
Zack Greinke's genes gave him a career as a star pitcher. But then they almost took it away.
Greinke was supposed to be a star pitcher. He was a top-notch prep pitcher who was supposed to be the total package: a pitcher with good stuff, great control, and strong makeup. And he was.
The Royals drafted him in the 1st round of the 2oo2 draft. The Royals pushed Greinke aggressively through the minors, and he seemed to respond well. Well, maybe "aggressive" isn't strong enough. Greinke made just three starts in Rookie League, two in Low-A ball and then pitched one game in High-A. That's three levels, 12 innings, 18 years old.
The Royals didn't stop the fast track in 2003, when Greinke was still just 19; he began the year back in High-A and pitched very well. He threw 87 innings, posting a 13:78 BB:K ratio and a 1.14 ERA. That's simply amazing for any level, especially for a player who's younger than the competition. So he got bumped up to Double-A, and while he wasn't amazing, he was still quite good (3.23 ERA, 5:34 BB:K ratio in 53 IP) which is, again, fantastic for his age. The Royals had a promising year in 2003 (83-79), and it looked like Greinke might move up and complete the renewal of a moribund franchise. But the team's success in 2003 was misleading and illusory; one could argue that this disappointment and the need for some good news (and good pitching) played a part in Greinke's promotion to the majors in 2004.
Of course, they may have just brought him up because he was good. The team started him in Triple-A in '04, and he pitched very well in 6 starts. With the major league team suffering and with little competition among the resident starters, Greinke came up to the majors.
Greinke pitched quite well; his 8-11 record was more a reflection of the team's struggles, as Greinke posted a 3.97 ERA (120 ERA+) and again showing his truly outstanding control; he walked just 26 batters in 145 innings while striking out 100. His only trouble was home runs, as he allowed 26 in limited work, more than one per start. Optimists called him a poor man's Greg Maddux, whereas pessimists pointed out that even with his great control, his low strikeout rate and high home run totals. But there was no denying that any 20-year-old who can pitch above-average ball in the majors is promising.
But Greinke took a big step back in 2005. He made 33 starts, but lasted just 183 innings. His walks went up, although not alarmingly (53 total). His strikeout rate dipped (114), as did his home run rate (23). The biggest difference, though, was in his hits allowed. In '03, Greinke allowed 143 H in 145 IP, but in '04 that ballooned to 233 H in 183 IP in '04. The 2003 number was pretty low, donsidering, and the 2004 total may have been the result predicted by the pessimists; that a pitcher in front of a bad defense in a hitter's park can't afford to allow as many balls in play as Greinke did.
But then something else came up. Something that seemed to have nothing to do with baseball, hits, projectability, scouts, or computers. But as it turned out, it had everything to do with it.
That's because Greinke suffered from depression and social anxiety disorder. It's impossible to say to what degree, if any, this affected his 2005 performance. Only Greinke and his close confidantes know how bad he was suffering at this point. His struggles may have just been pitching struggles unrelated to his mental health. Or it could have had a lot to do with it, because baseball as a profession requires a great deal of confidence, self-assurance, and resilience in the face of public pressure. Greinke stated later that the diseases were genetic, so it's no telling how long he's been affected. But it came to the forefront in 2006.
Greinke pitched in three games in 2006, and they were all in September. Before the season started, the Royals went public with the fact that Greinke wouldn't be able to pitch for an indefinite period. It eventually came out that it was due to mental illness, although I can't find out if the Royals ever confirmed this specifically or if this knowledge just leaked out.
I have to say right away that the Royals, at least externally, handled this situation with great sensitivity and great regard for Greinke's privacy. The specific problems that Greinke suffered from didn't even become public for quite a while. And the mainstream media deserves credit as well for not digging into Greinke's private life and publishing his psychiatric troubles on the front page. Although we must recognize that Greinke played for a team in Kansas City, and it's doubtful that a player in New York would get similar treatment.
Greinke spent a great deal of time away from baseball. That was deliberate, as it was baseball that caused the greatest grief to him. Over a period of time, that would slowly change. The Royals eventually sent Greinke back to the minor leagues to work things out. Greinke made 17 starts with Double-A Wichita and was his old self, even if it was against minor league competition. He threw 106 innings and posted a Greinke-an BB:K ratio of 27:94. And he allowed just 12 home runs.
The Royals recalled Greinke in September of that year. He made three appearances with the major league club, posting a 4.26 ERA (110 ERA+). Although there was a great deal of work ahead, Greinke had returned to the majors after a career interruption as serious as any arm injury.
In 2007, the club used Greinke as a starter and reliever (52 games pitched, 14 of them starts) and he was quite good. The Royals were still in last place, but Greinke went 7-7 with a 3.69 ERA and a typical BB:K ratio of 36:106 in 122 innings. Even his home run total (12) was back to normal.
If that weren't good news enough, Greinke has taken another step forward to become one of the league's best pitchers in 2008. He's made 31 starts for 195.1 innings and managed a 3.59 ERA (125 ERA+). He currently ranks 13th in the AL in ERA and even 14th in the AL in strikeouts (179). Basically, Zack Greinke is back, and it's just as amazing as a pitcher returning from injury. In fact, it's more amazing, because his were problems that were new to many people who follow baseball.
The reason I'm talking about Zack Greinke is that I suffer from almost the exact same mental illnesses. It was very encouraging for me to see the way Greinke's troubles were publicly handled, and I could only hope that it helped a lot of people come to terms with diseases that still carry a significant stigma.
In fact, the similarities between Greinke and myself (apart from the whole ace-pitcher thing) are striking. I suffer from chronic depression that has a strong genetic influence. The best way to describe depression is to take life's ups and downs, eliminate most of the ups and deepen all of the downs. Depression becomes a serious problem when it affects your ability to function in your life. Obviously, Greinke's troubles reached this point, as it made him completely unable to play baseball.
I can't speculate as to what other symptoms Greinke had. Many people have similar symptoms, but nobody has them all. The story Greinke tells in the interview linked above -- of crying himself to sleep clutching a bat -- is heart-wrenching and is not the sign of moderate depression. I guess you could say that I'm defensive about depression, if only because there are still people out there who don't really see it as a disease. And that's an argument that offends me personally. As for the interview I mentioned, Greinke gave an interview to the Kansas City Star about his struggles about a year ago that offers the most specific information about his problems. The story is no longer extant on the Star's website, so I linked to the article above, which excerpts some of the more pertinent passages.
Greinke also suffers from social anxiety, as do I (I suffer from generalized anxiety disorder, but it's particularly acute in social situations). I can certainly relate to some of Greinke's troubles.
Social anxiety isn't necessarily the same as being introverted. It's a pervasive and usually unfounded fear of other people and social situations. This is a problem for anyone functioning in this world. Do you want to get a job? That's a stressful people-related situation for most people, but it can become a nightmare for people with social anxiety. Need to socialize with your peer group or try to form romantic relationships? These situations are beyond nightmarish for most people with social anxiety. We either suffer terribly through them or simply learn to avoid them, thus becoming hermits.
I should point out that while my job does have me dealing with people on a daily basis, it does not have me doing so in front of 20,000-40,000 screaming people all looking at me. A big part of social anxiety is the fear of being judged and/or feeling like you're constantly being judged. Well if you're a baseball player, that's basically true. And I can't imagine having to deal with that.
Like many people with social anxiety, I came up with my own ways to cope. I don't know what Greinke's strategies were, but I started honing my sense of humor early on. Being funny is a great replacement for substantive conversation, especially with people you want to impress. I also enjoyed from an early age performing in theatre. That way I can pretend to be someone else to get acceptance.
It's amazing to me that someone can surpass all of the obstacles it takes to become a professional baseball player and deal with a potentially debilitating illness at the same time. Whether he intends to be one or not, Greinke is an example to a lot of sdifferent people.
Greinke was supposed to be a star pitcher. He was a top-notch prep pitcher who was supposed to be the total package: a pitcher with good stuff, great control, and strong makeup. And he was.
The Royals drafted him in the 1st round of the 2oo2 draft. The Royals pushed Greinke aggressively through the minors, and he seemed to respond well. Well, maybe "aggressive" isn't strong enough. Greinke made just three starts in Rookie League, two in Low-A ball and then pitched one game in High-A. That's three levels, 12 innings, 18 years old.
The Royals didn't stop the fast track in 2003, when Greinke was still just 19; he began the year back in High-A and pitched very well. He threw 87 innings, posting a 13:78 BB:K ratio and a 1.14 ERA. That's simply amazing for any level, especially for a player who's younger than the competition. So he got bumped up to Double-A, and while he wasn't amazing, he was still quite good (3.23 ERA, 5:34 BB:K ratio in 53 IP) which is, again, fantastic for his age. The Royals had a promising year in 2003 (83-79), and it looked like Greinke might move up and complete the renewal of a moribund franchise. But the team's success in 2003 was misleading and illusory; one could argue that this disappointment and the need for some good news (and good pitching) played a part in Greinke's promotion to the majors in 2004.
Of course, they may have just brought him up because he was good. The team started him in Triple-A in '04, and he pitched very well in 6 starts. With the major league team suffering and with little competition among the resident starters, Greinke came up to the majors.
Greinke pitched quite well; his 8-11 record was more a reflection of the team's struggles, as Greinke posted a 3.97 ERA (120 ERA+) and again showing his truly outstanding control; he walked just 26 batters in 145 innings while striking out 100. His only trouble was home runs, as he allowed 26 in limited work, more than one per start. Optimists called him a poor man's Greg Maddux, whereas pessimists pointed out that even with his great control, his low strikeout rate and high home run totals. But there was no denying that any 20-year-old who can pitch above-average ball in the majors is promising.
But Greinke took a big step back in 2005. He made 33 starts, but lasted just 183 innings. His walks went up, although not alarmingly (53 total). His strikeout rate dipped (114), as did his home run rate (23). The biggest difference, though, was in his hits allowed. In '03, Greinke allowed 143 H in 145 IP, but in '04 that ballooned to 233 H in 183 IP in '04. The 2003 number was pretty low, donsidering, and the 2004 total may have been the result predicted by the pessimists; that a pitcher in front of a bad defense in a hitter's park can't afford to allow as many balls in play as Greinke did.
But then something else came up. Something that seemed to have nothing to do with baseball, hits, projectability, scouts, or computers. But as it turned out, it had everything to do with it.
That's because Greinke suffered from depression and social anxiety disorder. It's impossible to say to what degree, if any, this affected his 2005 performance. Only Greinke and his close confidantes know how bad he was suffering at this point. His struggles may have just been pitching struggles unrelated to his mental health. Or it could have had a lot to do with it, because baseball as a profession requires a great deal of confidence, self-assurance, and resilience in the face of public pressure. Greinke stated later that the diseases were genetic, so it's no telling how long he's been affected. But it came to the forefront in 2006.
Greinke pitched in three games in 2006, and they were all in September. Before the season started, the Royals went public with the fact that Greinke wouldn't be able to pitch for an indefinite period. It eventually came out that it was due to mental illness, although I can't find out if the Royals ever confirmed this specifically or if this knowledge just leaked out.
I have to say right away that the Royals, at least externally, handled this situation with great sensitivity and great regard for Greinke's privacy. The specific problems that Greinke suffered from didn't even become public for quite a while. And the mainstream media deserves credit as well for not digging into Greinke's private life and publishing his psychiatric troubles on the front page. Although we must recognize that Greinke played for a team in Kansas City, and it's doubtful that a player in New York would get similar treatment.
Greinke spent a great deal of time away from baseball. That was deliberate, as it was baseball that caused the greatest grief to him. Over a period of time, that would slowly change. The Royals eventually sent Greinke back to the minor leagues to work things out. Greinke made 17 starts with Double-A Wichita and was his old self, even if it was against minor league competition. He threw 106 innings and posted a Greinke-an BB:K ratio of 27:94. And he allowed just 12 home runs.
The Royals recalled Greinke in September of that year. He made three appearances with the major league club, posting a 4.26 ERA (110 ERA+). Although there was a great deal of work ahead, Greinke had returned to the majors after a career interruption as serious as any arm injury.
In 2007, the club used Greinke as a starter and reliever (52 games pitched, 14 of them starts) and he was quite good. The Royals were still in last place, but Greinke went 7-7 with a 3.69 ERA and a typical BB:K ratio of 36:106 in 122 innings. Even his home run total (12) was back to normal.
If that weren't good news enough, Greinke has taken another step forward to become one of the league's best pitchers in 2008. He's made 31 starts for 195.1 innings and managed a 3.59 ERA (125 ERA+). He currently ranks 13th in the AL in ERA and even 14th in the AL in strikeouts (179). Basically, Zack Greinke is back, and it's just as amazing as a pitcher returning from injury. In fact, it's more amazing, because his were problems that were new to many people who follow baseball.
The reason I'm talking about Zack Greinke is that I suffer from almost the exact same mental illnesses. It was very encouraging for me to see the way Greinke's troubles were publicly handled, and I could only hope that it helped a lot of people come to terms with diseases that still carry a significant stigma.
In fact, the similarities between Greinke and myself (apart from the whole ace-pitcher thing) are striking. I suffer from chronic depression that has a strong genetic influence. The best way to describe depression is to take life's ups and downs, eliminate most of the ups and deepen all of the downs. Depression becomes a serious problem when it affects your ability to function in your life. Obviously, Greinke's troubles reached this point, as it made him completely unable to play baseball.
I can't speculate as to what other symptoms Greinke had. Many people have similar symptoms, but nobody has them all. The story Greinke tells in the interview linked above -- of crying himself to sleep clutching a bat -- is heart-wrenching and is not the sign of moderate depression. I guess you could say that I'm defensive about depression, if only because there are still people out there who don't really see it as a disease. And that's an argument that offends me personally. As for the interview I mentioned, Greinke gave an interview to the Kansas City Star about his struggles about a year ago that offers the most specific information about his problems. The story is no longer extant on the Star's website, so I linked to the article above, which excerpts some of the more pertinent passages.
Greinke also suffers from social anxiety, as do I (I suffer from generalized anxiety disorder, but it's particularly acute in social situations). I can certainly relate to some of Greinke's troubles.
Social anxiety isn't necessarily the same as being introverted. It's a pervasive and usually unfounded fear of other people and social situations. This is a problem for anyone functioning in this world. Do you want to get a job? That's a stressful people-related situation for most people, but it can become a nightmare for people with social anxiety. Need to socialize with your peer group or try to form romantic relationships? These situations are beyond nightmarish for most people with social anxiety. We either suffer terribly through them or simply learn to avoid them, thus becoming hermits.
I should point out that while my job does have me dealing with people on a daily basis, it does not have me doing so in front of 20,000-40,000 screaming people all looking at me. A big part of social anxiety is the fear of being judged and/or feeling like you're constantly being judged. Well if you're a baseball player, that's basically true. And I can't imagine having to deal with that.
Like many people with social anxiety, I came up with my own ways to cope. I don't know what Greinke's strategies were, but I started honing my sense of humor early on. Being funny is a great replacement for substantive conversation, especially with people you want to impress. I also enjoyed from an early age performing in theatre. That way I can pretend to be someone else to get acceptance.
It's amazing to me that someone can surpass all of the obstacles it takes to become a professional baseball player and deal with a potentially debilitating illness at the same time. Whether he intends to be one or not, Greinke is an example to a lot of sdifferent people.
Saturday, September 20, 2008
S.O.M.M.: Stuff On My Mind
- This will be a fascinating offseason. And I do sincerely feel really bad for the Brewers. With that in mind, and with the Miracle Rays (I hope that catches on) headed for the postseason, let's discuss:
- The ESPN Power Rankings must be the ultimate measure of front-running on the internet. But I guess it's more exciting if there's a new team at #1 every week, regardless of their overall performance. So how do the teams look, overall? Here's where we are right now (as of Friday 9/19 games):
pW-pL denotes Pythagorean record. Stats followed by league rank in parentheses:
NL PLAYOFF CONTENDERS
Chicago: 92-60 (1st), 810 Runs Scored (1st), 631 Runs Allowed (2nd), pW-pL 93-59 (1st)
This is why people pick the Cubs to win the pennant. They do look like the best team in baseball. No team is close in terms of runs scored, and they're a close second in runs allowed to the Dodgers.
New York: 86-67 (2nd), 762 R (2nd), 668 RA (5th), pW-pL 86-67 (3rd)
The Mets aren't that bad off. Their pitching has suffered recently, but it's not as bad as you'd think. And for all their hitting problems, they're still better than anyone but the Cubs.
Philadelphia: 86-68 (3rd), 759 R (3rd), 651 RA (3rd), pW-pL 88-66 (2nd)
How 'bout that pitching? The Phils have gotten surprisingly good work from their starters and especially from their 'pen. It looks now like both the Phillies and Mets will make the postseason.
Los Angeles: 80-74 (8th), 655 R (13th), 618 RA (1st), pW-pL 81-73 (5th)
Imagine where the Dodgers would be in another division. Their pitching has been great; no complaints there. But look at all the potential in that lineup and then realize that only three teams in the NL are worse at scoring runs. If they win the pennant, I'll eat my hat.
Milwaukee: 84-70 (4th), 712 R (6th), 667 RA ( 5th), pW-pL 82-72 (4th)
As Oliver Hardy once said, "'Twas ever thus."
Those are the only real contenders left. There are some pretenders still in the race. Houston is going to be the Mariners of 2009. Florida has an underrated offense, but their pitching staff is dodgy. And with their strict Scroog-y-ness, there's little chance that they'll capitalize on their upside. St. Louis is in a holding pattern; they're not going to get much better or much worse. Arizona needs to figure out why their offense can't connect the dots. AL PLAYOFF CONTENDERS - Should Manny Ramirez be the MVP? Let's ask the man himself. From the Los Angeles Times:
"I voted for Pujols," Ramirez said. The vote that Ramirez was talking about was for the player of the year of the Players Choice Awards, for which the Dodgers were handed ballots Wednesday. The MVP award is voted on by baseball writers. "It's nice that some people think I deserve it," Ramirez said. "I'd like to win it. But I have to be realistic. Someone who was only here for two months doesn't deserve it. It should go to someone who played the six months of the season." Ramirez said he has resigned himself to the reality that he might never win an MVP award. "I've played 16 years, I've been a pretty good player and I've never won it," he said. "It's not a big deal. I'll go on with my life."
Rob Neyer's response: "You know, for a guy who's supposedly a child when he's not hitting, Manny makes a lot of sense."
I say: If Pujols doesn't win this one, I'm turning in my BBWAA official fan club badge.
"CHICO: Sorry, brother, you can't get on the train unless you've got a badge.
GROUCHO: Badge? Oh, BADGE! You mean my Lone Ranger badge. Sorry, they took it away; I stopped eating the cereal." -- At the Circus (1939) - There's a fine article on Nomaas.com -- a Yankee fansite -- have written a fine bit on the future of Brian Cashman. Cashman may be facing a coming "reorganization" in the Yankee hierarchy. Anyone who's ever been part of a "reorganization" should be wary about Cashman's future. The Nomaas article argues that the Yankees should keep Cashman. I concur. Cashman shouldn't have to face another period of mismanagement at the hands of the Steinbrothers, and there are several teams out there willing to pay him not to.
- Joe Posnanski -- Kansas City columnist -- has another set of fine words about Carlos Beltran. Thank goodness. Because it's not just the Met fanblogs that think Beltran is useless; that feeling of disappointment is bleeding over into the mainstream media. And that's shameful and foolish. Beltran is one of the best players in baseball and has more than earned the money the Mets have paid him.
- Congress has yelled at the Yankees for using too much public money on their ballpark and perhaps even committing some fiscal tomfoolery with the IRS. I'm glad that Congress is willing to act on this important issue facing our nation. What's that . . . the Dow fell 400 points in one day? People are dying in two different wars . . . so there may be more important things for Congress to do.
But hey -- at least they're going to back up their words, bluster, and public posturing with action, right? ... Right . . . ? - The name of the new Twins ballpark is going to be Target field. Ouch.
- Isn't this just amazing? I wish I could actually understand it.
Los Angeles: 94-59 (1st), 719 R (10th), 652 RA (4th), pW-pL 83-70 (6th)
O-VER-RA-TED :: clap, clap, clap-clap-clap::
It's disappointing that so many mainstream commentators have fallen for the Angels' smoke and mirrors act. They've been feasting on a weak division and benefiting from good luck. That's not to say that they won't succeed in October; they may. But they didn't win last year, they didn't win in 2005, and they didn't win in 2004. There's a reason that the Red Sox have won two World Series in that time (sweeping the Angels out of the ALDS in both cases) while the Angels haven't.
Tampa Bay: 91-61 (2nd), 719 R (T-9th), 626 RA (1st), pW-pL 86-66 (2nd)
It's amazing; at one point on the ESPN MLB page, they were running two columns side-by-side by Jayson Stark. One said, "The Rays' story keeps getting more amazing." The previous story said, "Bright season for Rays suddenly a bit gloomy." The shift took place in the middle of their recent series against the Red Sox.
Short version? Really good team with bright future. Offense could use a boost, but they could make some noise.
Boston: 90-63 (3rd), 806 R (2nd), 647 RA (4th), pW-pL 92-61 (1st)
Here, friends, is the best team in baseball. Most of the concern over the Sox is typical Boston media fearmongering. They're the favorites again, not that that means a whole lot in the postseason, but it's cool.
Chicago: 85-68 (4th), 767 R (5th), 679 RA (5th), pW-pL 85-68 (4th)
They shocked me, but they're a potent team. They're not as strong as Boston or as pitching-happy as Tampa or the Angels, but they could be the surprise team of the postseason.
Minnesota: 83-71 (T-5th), 795 R (3rd), 713 RA (7th), pW-pL 85-69 (5th)
They're basically done. Question: If the Twins had pulled their head out of their collective asses re: their offense, Livan Hernandez, and Francisco Liriano earlier, would they be in the postseason? Should a franchise ever put themselves in a situation where you can even ask that question?
Those are the only viable teams in the AL. Boston and Tampa are a couple games away from clinching. Chicago has a 2-game lead in the Central, which looks like it could stick.
So who's gonna win it all? The easy pick is Chicago or Boston. But who knows? Wouldn't it be great if it were Tampa .vs. Milwaukee? I'd love it just to see the TV executives' heads explode.
After the season's over, we'll refine our metrics and try to narrow down our analysis of each team's postseason chances.
I'll be back soon to discuss the Hall of Fame ballot put before the Veterans Committee among other things.
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
State of the Baseball Union
Apologies for the one-month absence. Health issues persist, I'm sorry to say. But what a fascinating month in the world of MLB.
- Ned Yost was fired, in a pretty unprecedented move, with just 12 games to play in the season. The Brewers were struggling, but in real terms, what's the difference between Yost and Sveum over a 12-game period? It could be positive, but that's assuming that Sveum makes none of the same mistakes as Yost (which everyone seems to be assuming for some reason). This smacks as a panic move, and my problem is that panic is really contagious. So when ownership starts yelling, screaming, and gnashing their teeth, they can't expect the players to maintain their calm. While most people agree that Yost deserved to get fired, it's hard for me to accept that this was the best way to resolve the issue.
As a side note, GM Doug Melvin has given Yost a great deal of praise, and it seems that the decision was made above his head, at ownership level. If Melvin was totally unwilling to fire Yost and the move needed to be made, I can understand management stepping in. Just not in mid-September.
Peter Gammons suggested in his column (the main source for this info) that this disconnect may put Melvin's job in danger. One thing I can state unequivocally is that Doug Melvin should not be fired from Milwaukee, and any discontent that may lead to such a thing should be dealt with now before it grows. Melvin and his scouting staff are the very reason that the Brewers are relevant again. Melvin has made his mistakes (Eric Gagne, Jeff Suppan, keeping Yost), but you're not going to do better by firing him. But Gammons' remark seems clear:
"Melvin is loyal and would never stab Yost in the back on his way out the door. In fact, Monday afternoon the Brewers' GM went out of his way to place the non-playing blame on himself. So if the Brewers do not make it into the playoffs, even with CC Sabathia, there may be speculation about Melvin's job security with owner Mark Attanasio."
Gammons is the insider's insider, so he's not one to engage in much idle speculation. But if there is speculation about Melvin's job security, it should not go any further than speculation. Hey, I'm a Doug Melvin fan. - Carlos Zambrano threw a no-hitter on Sunday night. I remember Zambrano's last serious run at a no-hitter against the D-Backs a few years ago and how disappointing it was that he missed out. It was a big moment for Zambrano and a great experience for all those Cub fans . . . in Milwaukee (wha?).
- There's been a lot of end-of-season awards speculation that's just crazy, even considering. Considering C.C. Sabathia for the Cy Young isn't crazy, exactly; if you combine his AL and NL stats, he deserves serious consideration. But remember that this is the "NL" Cy Young Award, and as I said just recently, stats from another league don't transfer. So while Sabathia isn't a bad choice all considered, I think he'll lose out on a technicality. I'm rooting for Tim Lincecum, if he still has two arms at the end of the season (h/t Gary Huckabay).
There's also been some support for Manny Ramirez as NL MVP. He faces the same problems as Sabathia in re trans-league stat transitioning. But he still looks to get strong support. But as Jay Jaffe points out, there are many NL players who've outplayed Manny since he joined the league; guys like Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman, and Chipper Jones who have the advantage of spending the entire season in the same league. It looks now like the NL MVP will go to Albert Pujols who is, you know, the league's most valuable player. - The Yankees are tied for 3rd place in the AL East with Toronto at 80-70, but they're 9 games back. They're also tied in 3rd for the Wild Card,but they're 9 games back. The Yankees' Pythagorean record is 78-72, which is tied for 7th in the AL with Cleveland. I think the Yankees are due for a bounceback next year, especially considering the money they'll have to spend and the vast room for improvement among their young starters. But they'll take a big step back if they lose GM Brian Cashman. Cashman's powers may be curtailed after this season, so we don't know what his status will be. If he is fired, he has to be considered the best available GM out there and an easy candidate to move right into the Seattle front office.
- The Blue Jays, despite being in 3rd place, actually have a Pythagorean record of 85-65, which is 2nd-best in the whole AL, after Boston. If GM J.P. Ricciardi doesn't get fired this offseason, it will be because ownership sees that this team isn't as bad as it looks. Their pitching staff is the best in the league by far, but without a step forward offensively (Ricciardi's weakness), they'll be lucky to make the Wild Card in two or three years.
- The Twins are currently 1.5 games back of the White Sox in the AL Central. They've got a fighting chance, but time is running out. If the Twins miss the postseason, it would be an interesting exercise to add up all of the big mistakes they made in terms of misappropriation of talent and wonder if they could have closed the thin gap with Chicago with nothing but a more intelligent set of executive decisions.
- Prediction: the Astros will be next year's Mariners. I.e. a team that lucks into a good record, thinks they're a lot better than they are, and suffer a huge disappointment. Less bold prediction: with the exception of the Cubs and maybe the Brewers, the NL Central is basically a mess. And for that matter, so is the NL. How many October-less AL teams would have made the postseason just by switching leagues? 3 or more?
- Finally: rumors have surfaced that Tony LaRussa may leave the Cardinals in search of a position as GM. It's just a rumor at this point, but it's fascinating to speculate. I suggested in one chat that a great destination would be Toronto; a team with a lot of good parts that's not too far away from contention. Of course, that's assuming that LaRussa makes a good GM. The transition from manager to GM (and vice versa) is one that rarely works out in baseball, although there are a few good success stories (Branch Rickey, Bobby Cox, Paul Richards).
More to come, including a team-by-team look at the postseason contenders and my best guess as to who's going to win.
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