Today was a great day to be a baseball fan, no doubt. There was excitement all across the National League, as two playoff spots were pursued by four teams. The American League was sewed up a while ago -- it should be Red Sox/Angels and Indians/Yankees in the ALDS -- but the National League came into this weekend with no teams having clinched a postseason berth. The D-Backs and Cubs clinched a spot on Friday, and they will face each other in the NLDS. But the NL East and NL Wild Card came down to today and, amazingly enough, only one race was settled.
The Mets got blistered by the lowly Marlins and lost 8-1, with Tom Glavine getting knocked out of the box in the 1st inning. So the Mets had to hope for the Phillies to lose, which would result in a tie and a one-game playoff tomorrow (it actually could have been even more complicated; if both teams had won today, there was a possible 4-way tie with the Rockies and Padres for 2 playoff spots. I don't even want to contemplate what that would result in; there's never even been a 3-way tie for a postseason spot before, let alone a 4-way tie for two spots).
Instead, the Phillies routed the Nationals and clinched the NL East, their first postseason berth since 1993. The Phillies were 7 games back with just two weeks left in the season and somehow managed to come back -- perhaps the most amazing comeback in baseball history. Which, conversely, makes it one of the worst collapses in history for the Mets, right up with the '64 Phillies, '51 Dodgers, and '95 Angels. The borough of Queens might spontaneously explode with anger pretty soon, so I expect ownership to throw some sacrifical lambs to the crowd (Willie Randolph, first of all) to prevent an armed uprising.
In the race for the Wild Card, the Padres entered today a game ahead of the Rockies and Phillies/Mets (the two teams were tied). With the Met loss and the Phillies winning the division, it came down to just San Diego and Colorado.
The Padres went into Milwaukee and had their behinds handed to them 11-6. This meant that if the Rockies could beat the Diamondbacks in Denver, they would finish tied for the Wild Card and force a one-game playoff for the first time since 1999, when the Mets beat the Reds at Riverfront Stadium in Game 163 to win the WC. With the most lively crowd at Coors Field in over ten years, the Rockies dispatched the D-Backs 4-3 with late-inning heroics and an explosive celebration.
The Padres will fly to Denver tomorrow to play the Rockies in a winner-take-all matchup. The Padres will have Jake Peavy available on full rest, which should give them an edge even at Coors. But even if the Rockies lose, their 89-win season -- the first contending season since they won the Wild Card in 1995 -- will be a huge leap forward for them. I may have said it before, but if any franchise needed an energetic revival like this, it was the Rockies. Win or lose, they've become relevant again and will be right back next year, and their 13-1 finish to the season will always be there.
As the title implies, it wasn't just a great day for baseball (outside of Queens), but a great day for parity. The season finished with no team winning 100 games (Boston and Cleveland were tops with 96) and no team losing 100 games (the D-Rays bottomed out with 96 losses). The absence of extreme performances either positive or negative is by definition a sign of competitive balance. In fact, no one in the NL won more than 90 games (Arizona was the only team to reach the mark at 90-72). The last time that happened was in 1959, when the Dodgers limped to an NL pennant with an 88-68 record. Of course, that's not just parity, it's also a statement on the relatively dismal state of the NL, but even in the AL, no team was dominant and no team was dominated.
This is reflected as part of the trend that began when the Yankees dynasty stopped winning the World Series in 2001. In fact, since 2000, 7 different teams have won 7 World Series (Yankees, D-Backs, Angels, Marlins, Red Sox, White Sox, Cardinals), an amazing sign of competitive balance. And if the Indians, Padres, Rockies, Cubs, or Phillies win the Series this year, it will be 8-for-8. Never, since the creation of the modern World Series in 1903, has a decade passed with no team winning more than 1 World Series (in the 80's, only the Dodgers were mutliple winners, in 1981 and 1988).
In the AL, 9 of 14 teams have made the postseason since 2000 (the Blue Jays, Rangers, Orioles, Royals, and D-Rays are still waiting). Three of those teams at least made the postseason in the 1990s. And there is still 2008 and 2009 for these teams to make the '00s the most balanced decade in the game's history (10 AL teams made the postseason in the 90's). I wouldn't count on the D-Rays or Orioles, but the other five teams at least have a vague chance of making the postseason in the next two years.
The NL has spread the wealth, too, with 11 of 16 teams appearing in the postseason since 2000 (if the Rockies win tomorrow, it will be 12 of 16). The only exceptions are the Rockies, Reds, Expos/Nats, Brewers, and Pirates. Of those teams, the Rockies may yet make the postseason, the Brewers will be contenders next year, and even the Reds might stand a chance in the NL Central. Only the Nats and Pirates are beyond hope for the immediate future.
Recent years have seen the destruction of curses (Red Sox and White Sox win World Series), and the potential destruction of two curses in this postseason (Cubs and Indians). The past few years have seen the turnaround of previously moribund franchises such as the Tigers, Brewers, and Rockies. Former powerhouses have fallen, to one extent or another, whether it's the Yankees (no World Championship since 2000), the Braves (streak of division titles broken), or the fall of other powerhouses of the past 10 years, such as the Cardinals, Astros, A's, and Giants.
The number of hopeless franchises in the game is dwindling. The Expos/Nats may not be run by extremely competent people, but they're moving into a new park next year and may be able to spend their way out of mediocrity (although that rarely works). The Pirates have a new CEO and new GM who seem to be very competent people, even considering the considerable task ahead of them. The Devil Rays have finally developed some good pitching prospects to go with their good young hitters, and while there's still quite a long way to go, things are definitely looking up. And even though they still lost 90 games, this season was a small step forward for the other bottom-feeding franchise in baseball, the Royals.
Reports of baseball's death have been gravely exaggerated. That's why I find it so humorous that the MLB is actually considering implementing a blood test for HGH next season. This may be off-topic, but why haven't more people blistered the league office for a policy that's awful on so many levels? If you're going to hideously invade a player's privacy, shouldn't you be doing it to test for a drug that has some research backing up the idea that it's a performance-enhancer? And shouldn't you wonder about the efficacy of such a test, which is far from a sure thing even now?
I mean, really, who the f*** is the MLB (you know who you are) trying to pacify with such an inflammatory and misguided announcement? The fans? The same fans who, in the wake of another batch of players implicated in illicit drug transactions, set a new major league attendance record with a week to spare?
What about the players? While I'm sure that most players want to remove the fog of suspicion that hangs over them all, I doubt they'd consider it worth a needle in the arm. And if Don Fehr and the MLBPA even consider going along with this, they should be bludgeoned into unsconsciousness by Marvin Miller.
No, the only people in the world who are really up in arms over hGH is the sports media. The same people who should be writing columns and going on TV to expose the lack of evidence of hGH as a performance-enhancer are doing the exact opposite; doing everything in their power to spread false information and perceptions among the fanbase. Kudos to the fans who are -- judging by their attendance -- telling sanctimonious baseball writers to go to hell.
We all know that baseball is sensitive to sudden bursts of rage against its perceived integrity -- look at the shamefully thrown-together Latino Legends team -- but I think that we would hope for a leadership that isn't so wishy-washy as to be swayed by the mildest of breezes. The outcry against hGH is not only amazingly misguided, it's also amazingly shallow; just try and gauge the depth of the perceived "outcry" against it.
Things are going quite well. There are problems out there, and serious ones at that; but so many things about the game have improved in the last 10-15 years that we have to admit that even if baseball isn't coming back, neither is it going away.
Sunday, September 30, 2007
Saturday, September 22, 2007
Pending Options
Let's have a look at the players who still have options pending for the 2008 season and see what we think of them:
First Base
Kevin Millar, Baltimore Orioles
2008 Age: 36
2008 Option: $2.75 million (guaranteed with 475 PAs in '07)
Millar's option has already vested, as he's hit 252/363/421 this year. It's not so hot for a first baseman, but the Orioles are desperate, and $2.75 million isn't bad for that kind of offense, even if it's not up to par for the position.
Second Base
Mark Ellis, Oakland Athletics
2008 Age: 31
2008 Option: $5 mil. club option
Ellis is hitting 274/336/438 this year and is still one of the best defensive second basemen in baseball. What the A's do here depends on how far they go in their quest to rebuild. If they're really going all scorched-earth on us, then they could pick up Ellis's option and trade him. They'd probably get a decent return, too, considering the free agent class of 2Bs.
Marcus Giles, San Diego Padres
2008 Age: 30
2008 Option: $4 mil. club option
Giles has had a dreadful year in San Diego (228/302/318), which makes John Scuerholz look really smart (and me look like a doofus). My guess is that the Padres decline.
Jeff Kent, Los Angeles Dodgers
2008 Age: 40
2008 Option: $9 mil. club option ($500k buyout)
Given Ned Colletti's bizarre fetish for older players, I think he'll pick up Kent's option, even though he's no kind of second baseman anymore, and the Dodgers have a gajillion first baseman-types.
Shortstops
Cesar Izturis, Pittsburgh Pirates
2008 Age: 28
2008 Option: $5.45 mil. club option
Only if they're really f***ing stupid.
Juan Uribe, Chicago White Sox
2008 Age: 29
2008 Option: $5 mil. club option
Amazingly enough, through all his trials Uribe has maintained strong defense at shortstop. The same cannot be said of his offense (229/282/396). He's not worth $5 mil to a club that isn't going to contend. But the re-signing of Jermaine Dye means that the White Sox might think that they will contend. They're just fooling themselves, but that may not stop them from signing Uribe anyways.
Third Base
Corey Koskie, Milwaukee Brewers
2008 Age: 36
2008 Option: $6.5 mil. club option
Koskie is injured and isn't going to be anybody's starting third baseman anytime soon. He could be a useful bat off the bench, but he's not worth $6.5 mil. Besides, you may have heard something about the Brewers' new third baseman.
Outfield
Bobby Abreu, New York Yankees
2008 Age: 34
2008 Option: $16 mil. club option
With the rise of Melky Cabrera, I seriously doubt that the Yankees will pay that much money to keep Abreu, especially if they're mortgaging the Stadium to pay A-Rod. Abreu is still quite valuable, but not $16 mil. worth, and not to a team that already has three good outfielders and a full-time DH.
Moises Alou, New York Mets
2008 Age: 41
2008 Option: $7.5 mil. club option ($1 mil. buyout)
I think more teams are going to be signing contracts like this over the next few years after the success of the deals given to Alou, Frank Thomas, Andy Pettitte, and others; one-year deals with an option and/or incentives. They allow a team that doesn't want to commit $50 million to get a good (or great) player on a short-term rental. It's also great for a player like Alou who is still quite good (343/394/535 in '07) but is also quite old (77 games played). The Alou signing was one of the best deals of the past offseason, but the Mets should quite while they're ahead and decline the option. Even a player as good as Alou isn't worth $7.5 million for half a season (or possibly less).
Adam Dunn, Cincinnati Reds
2008 Age: 28
2008 Option: $13 mil. club option
Although I've gone on record (or rather been forced on the record) about Dunn's likely decline after age 30, I think a one-year, $13 million deal is a bargain for him. The only question is whether the Reds really need to spend that much.
The Reds' outfield next year will be a mix of Dunn, Josh Hamilton, Ryan Freel, Ken Griffey, Norris Hopper and super-prospect Jay Bruce. At first base will be Scott Hatteberg and/or prospect Joey Votto. The unfortunate truth is that the Reds don't need Dunn, especially at that price. That's not to say that they shouldn't keep him, but the Reds should look at what else they could spend that money on (pitching, although I don't trust Wayne Krivsky to spend money on pitchers anymore). They also need to think about how close they are to contending next year. They've got a decent shot, but it's far more important to bring along top-notch hitting prospects Bruce and Votto. With Bruce taking over for Dunn, that would leave Hamilton and Griffey in the outfield with plenty of backups when (yes, when) Griffey gets injured.
The Reds' outfield next year will be a mix of Dunn, Josh Hamilton, Ryan Freel, Ken Griffey, Norris Hopper and super-prospect Jay Bruce. At first base will be Scott Hatteberg and/or prospect Joey Votto. The unfortunate truth is that the Reds don't need Dunn, especially at that price. That's not to say that they shouldn't keep him, but the Reds should look at what else they could spend that money on (pitching, although I don't trust Wayne Krivsky to spend money on pitchers anymore). They also need to think about how close they are to contending next year. They've got a decent shot, but it's far more important to bring along top-notch hitting prospects Bruce and Votto. With Bruce taking over for Dunn, that would leave Hamilton and Griffey in the outfield with plenty of backups when (yes, when) Griffey gets injured.
If I were the Reds, I'd pick up Dunn's option absolutely; but then I'd agressively shop him around the league. And if I were a team like the Yankees, I'd take a close look at getting a player like Dunn to fill a hole at first base on a short-term loan.
Darin Erstad, Chicago White Sox
2008 Age: 34
2008 Option: $3.5 mil. club option
The Sox already have two or three useless outfielders; they don't need to spend money to keep another one around.
Shawn Green, New York Mets
2008 Age: 35
2008 Option: $10 mil. club option
Yeah, right. Green has admittedly done better in New York than I expected, merely being an average-hitting right fielder. But he's not worth $10 mil., especially when Lastings Milledge is sitting on the bench.
Geoff Jenkins, Milwaukee Brewers
2008 Age: 33
2008 Option: $9 mil club option
I may be wrong, but I seem to remember the Brewers already pretty much guaranteeing that they won't pick up Jenkins' option. And neither should they, with plenty of homegrown replacements. It's always tough to say goodbye to a former face of the franchise, but that often happens when a team gets better and outgrows mediocrity. But Jenkins is still valuable and could be a steal for some team willing to use him as a rotating outfielder type.
Catchers
Ivan Rodriguez, Detroit Tigers
2008 Age: 36
2008 Option: $13 mil. club option
There's no way that Pudge Rodriguez is worth 13 million dollars. He just can't really hit anymore (276/290/418). But that doesn't mean that the Tigers won't pay him anyhow just to keep up appearances. Yes, he's still a tough player to replace, but a team right on the cusp like Detroit has many better ways to spend $13 mil.
Javier Valentin, Cincinnati Reds
2008 Age: 32
2008 Option: $1.3 mil. club option
Valentin isn't much on defense, but he is a good hitter for a catcher. Of course, the Reds have overexposed him by making him their top pinch-hitter, but then they did the same thing to Jacob Cruz a couple years ago (remember him? Didn't think so) before his alleged brilliance was exposed as just a trick of sample sizes.
That said, you could do worse with that kind of money than get a decent-hitting catcher. Especially when your other option is (shudder) David Ross.
That said, you could do worse with that kind of money than get a decent-hitting catcher. Especially when your other option is (shudder) David Ross.
Starting Pitchers
Kris Benson, Baltimore Orioles
2008 Age: 33
2008 Option: $7.5 million club option ($500k buyout)
Remember him? Considering that he's missed the entire 2007 season due to injuries, I'm guessing that the O's will pass on this one.
Paul Byrd, Cleveland Indians
2008 Age: 37
2008 Option: $8 mil. club option ($250k buyout)
Paul Byrd isn't worth $8 million, the club may end up paying him simply due to the lack of viable alternatives. The Indians are going to need a lot of help bolstering the back end of their rotation next year, and I doubt they'd worry a lot about overpaying a potentially useful pitcher by a million or two. The problem is that Byrd, with his stuff (or lack thereof) is always on the verge of becoming a Triple-A quality pitcher. It all depends on how willing the Indians are to gamble with him.
Odalis Perez, Kansas City Royals
2008 Age: 31
2008 Option: $9 mil. club option
Chortle, Chortle.
Joel Pineiro, St. Louis Cardinals
2008 Age: 29
2008 Option: no details available
Pineiro's made 9 starts for the Cardinals, posting a 4.50 ERA in 50 IP with an 8:30 BB:K ratio. Considering the other candidates for the St. Louis rotation, I'd pick up the option if it's reasonable.
Julian Tavarez, Boston Red Sox
2008 Age: 35
2008 Option: $3.85 mil. club option
The Red Sox can easily afford to pay $4 mil. to a swing starter/long reliever, especially considering Curt Schilling's age and inconsistency.
Randy Wolf, Los Angeles Dodgers
2008 Age: 31
2008 Option: $9 mil. club option ($500k buyout)
Wolf threw 102.2 IP this year (4.73 ERA) before getting injured. My guess is the Dodgers cut their losses and buy out his option; they can replace him.
Relief Pitchers
Scott Eyre, Chicago Cubs
2008 Age: 36
2008 Option: $3.8 mil. player option
Eyre may be able to get more than $3.8 mil. on the open market, but at his age, coming of a season with a 4.41 ERA I doubt it. He should exercise his option.
Trevor Hoffman, San Diego Padres
2008 Age: 40
2008 Option: $7.5 million option (vests with 45 GF in '05 or 90 GF in '06-'07)
Hoffman's option has vested, but I'd guess that the Padres would have brought him back anyhow.
Jason Isringhausen, St. Louis Cardinals
2008 Age: 35
2008 Option: $8 mil. club option
Jason Isringhausen is an amazingly overrated closer, and he's not worth $8 million. That being said, you have to consider what you're options are if you do decline his option. My take is that the Cards probably won't contend in 2008 and even so shouldn't pay $8 mil. to a limited 35-year-old closer. But they probably will.
Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins
2008 Age: 33
2008 Option: $6 mil. option
Nathan is still one of the greatest closers in the game, so $6 mil. isn't much money. The main question is whether the Twins want to keep him around for one year (a year in which they aren't likely to contend) or trade him and plan for the future. It would be a far-reaching move to trade him, and I'm sure they'd find several takers. But so long as they're trying to negotiate an extension with Johan Santana, they're not going to raise the white flag on the immediate future. Nathan will probably stay.
Back later with a look at free agents.
All info on contracts is from the invaluable Cot's Baseball Contracts.
Friday, September 21, 2007
The Home Stretch
There's a lot to be excited about as we head for the last 10 games of the regular season. The AL playoff field is pretty much established: Red Sox, Yankees, Indians, Angels. Although, as you may have heard, the first two teams on that list have been engaging in a life-or-death struggle simply to determine who gets to face which of the latter two teams.
The above-linked article compares the Red Sox situation to that of the '78 team that blew a comfortable lead to the Yankees and then lost it all in a one-game playoff. In a sense, the comparison is valid; the '07 Sox had a quite comfortable lead in the AL East and have seen it dwindle to 1.5 games with 9 games remaining (the Yanks have 10 to play).
But in the realistic sense, this is nothing like '78. The AL East race is an overblown battle of collective egos in New England. It has basically no bearing on the postseason. In '78, the team that lost the race went home in October. This year, the team that loses this particular race will be the Wild Card rather than the AL East Champion. And that is absolutely no big deal.
By W-L Record and by a subjective eye-balling, the 4 AL playoff teams are very close in quality. None of the four are truly great -- each has its faults -- but they're all pretty good teams on pace to win 95 games or more. In the grand scheme of things, it doesn't matter so much who faces whom so long as you get to the postseason in the first place.
Under no circumstances would the Sox and Yanks play each other in the ALDS. So the Sox are basically competing for home field advantage in the ALDS and ALCS against either the Indians or the Angels. Home field advantage is nice to have, but it's not worth the nervous breakdowns affecting half the population of Massachusetts. I'm sure if you looked and analyzed closely, you'd find out which team -- the Indians or Angels -- would be the most favorable matchup for Boston. But it's almost not worth the effort, because even if you do get the most favorable circumstances in October, you can still piss it all away. The Yankees beat out the Sox for the division title in 2005, and neither team made the World Series.
No, the real excitement will commence in October, when these four teams square off. As of Thursday's games, the Angels have the best record in the AL (and the MLB) at 91-62. Their win over Seattle last night clinched at least a tie for the AL West title, so the Angels are basically a lock for the postseason. As of right now, their record (a half game better than the 90-62 Indians) would grant them a spot against the Wild Card Yankees. This would leave Cleveland .vs. Boston in the other ALDS matchup. The Indians' magic number is 3, as they punched their postseason ticket with a convincing sweep of the 2nd-place Tigers earlier this week.
So who do I think will win the AL pennant? It's a toss-up, but I'll go with Cleveland. The Angels have the best rotation among the AL postseason hopefuls, and the Yankees have the best offense. But I think the Indians have just a good enough combination of everything to make it. But I have to admit that I'm also rooting for them in support of their front office (which I'm a fan of), but mainly because I want to see another curse fall; after the Cubs, the Indians are the team with the longest World Series drought (they haven't won one since 1948, when they beat the Braves). The other AL teams (LA, Boston, the Yankees) have all won the Series in the past six years, while the Indians have waited six decades.
The races in the NL are much more exciting, because they're more of the "win or go home" variety. And even those races that looked like sure things are starting to look even more doubtful:
Cubs (80-73)
The above-linked article compares the Red Sox situation to that of the '78 team that blew a comfortable lead to the Yankees and then lost it all in a one-game playoff. In a sense, the comparison is valid; the '07 Sox had a quite comfortable lead in the AL East and have seen it dwindle to 1.5 games with 9 games remaining (the Yanks have 10 to play).
But in the realistic sense, this is nothing like '78. The AL East race is an overblown battle of collective egos in New England. It has basically no bearing on the postseason. In '78, the team that lost the race went home in October. This year, the team that loses this particular race will be the Wild Card rather than the AL East Champion. And that is absolutely no big deal.
By W-L Record and by a subjective eye-balling, the 4 AL playoff teams are very close in quality. None of the four are truly great -- each has its faults -- but they're all pretty good teams on pace to win 95 games or more. In the grand scheme of things, it doesn't matter so much who faces whom so long as you get to the postseason in the first place.
Under no circumstances would the Sox and Yanks play each other in the ALDS. So the Sox are basically competing for home field advantage in the ALDS and ALCS against either the Indians or the Angels. Home field advantage is nice to have, but it's not worth the nervous breakdowns affecting half the population of Massachusetts. I'm sure if you looked and analyzed closely, you'd find out which team -- the Indians or Angels -- would be the most favorable matchup for Boston. But it's almost not worth the effort, because even if you do get the most favorable circumstances in October, you can still piss it all away. The Yankees beat out the Sox for the division title in 2005, and neither team made the World Series.
No, the real excitement will commence in October, when these four teams square off. As of Thursday's games, the Angels have the best record in the AL (and the MLB) at 91-62. Their win over Seattle last night clinched at least a tie for the AL West title, so the Angels are basically a lock for the postseason. As of right now, their record (a half game better than the 90-62 Indians) would grant them a spot against the Wild Card Yankees. This would leave Cleveland .vs. Boston in the other ALDS matchup. The Indians' magic number is 3, as they punched their postseason ticket with a convincing sweep of the 2nd-place Tigers earlier this week.
So who do I think will win the AL pennant? It's a toss-up, but I'll go with Cleveland. The Angels have the best rotation among the AL postseason hopefuls, and the Yankees have the best offense. But I think the Indians have just a good enough combination of everything to make it. But I have to admit that I'm also rooting for them in support of their front office (which I'm a fan of), but mainly because I want to see another curse fall; after the Cubs, the Indians are the team with the longest World Series drought (they haven't won one since 1948, when they beat the Braves). The other AL teams (LA, Boston, the Yankees) have all won the Series in the past six years, while the Indians have waited six decades.
The races in the NL are much more exciting, because they're more of the "win or go home" variety. And even those races that looked like sure things are starting to look even more doubtful:
NL EAST
The Mets, while not nearly as strong as last year's squad, still looked the only sure thing to make the postseason out of the NL contenders. But a dismal September saw them lose a lot of games to some very poor teams. Meanwhile, the Phillies -- having beat up on the Mets themselves -- have moved within 1.5 games of first. Here's what the two teams are facing the rest of the way, including the current winning percentage of their opponents:
Mets:
3 games @ Marlins (.431)
3 games @ Marlins (.431)
3 games .vs. Nationals (.444)
1 makeup game .vs. Cardinals (.467)
3 games .vs. Marlins (.431)
The Marlins are tied with the Pirates for the worst record in the NL (66-87). The Nats are only modestly better (68-85). The Cardinals are marginally better, but when you take into account their woeful current state-- with half the roster injured and the possibility of finishing the season without Albert Pujols -- they're probably no better. And the Mets will be playing the last 7 of these games at home.
Phillies:
3 games @ Nationals (.444)
day off
3 games .vs. Braves (.523)
3 games .vs. Nationals (.444)
All eyes should be on the Braves, the only remotely competitive team either the Mets or Phillies face the rest of the way. This is bad news for Phillies fans -- sure they get to beat up on the Nats, but they also have to face a tough Atlanta team and somehow make up 1.5 games in the process. The Phillies have made a valiant effort, but I highly doubt it will result in a postseason berth (Baseball Prospectus' Playoff Odds list the Phillies at 48%. Not too bad, but the Mets are at 90%).
And even though they've played some exciting baseball and managed to contend in spite of a poor, injured pitching staff, this season will be a big disappointment in Philly if they don't make the playoffs. The Phillies have finished in 2nd place for three straight seasons (this season would be four straight) and have been competitive for seven straight, but they still haven't made the playoffs since 1993. Under manager Charlie Manuel, the Phillies have finished 2 games out of the East and 1 out of the Wild Card ('05) and 12 games out of the East and 3 back of the Wild Card ('06). They look to continue the trend of "almost" seasons this year, which could result in the firing of Charlie Manuel.
The Braves are still technically in the race (4.5 back), but the only real satisfaction they can find is to play spoiler versus the Phillies.
NL CENTRAL
This one has been swinging back and forth between Chicago and Milwaukee from the start of the season. Despite a misleading charge by the Cardinals (who are now in danger of falling past the Reds into 4th place), this has always been a two-team race between the Cubs and Brewers. Their relative mediocrity isn't quite as captivating as the tradition of losing inherent in both franchises. For the Brewers, it's the past 15 years since they were contenders. For the Cubs, it's the 99 since they won the World Series.
Through Thursday's games, the Cubs lead the Brewers by 1.5 games. With so few games left to play, this is a pretty good lead, but let's take a look at the upcoming schedule for both teams:
Cubs (80-73)
3 .vs. Pirates (.431)
day off
3 @ Marlins (.431)
3 @ Reds (.458)
Brewers (78-74)
3 @ Braves (.523)
3 .vs. Cardinals (.467)
4 .vs. Padres (.559)
Despite the fact that the Brewers have more home games left, their schedule is much tougher. The Cubs get the two worst teams in the league, and it's hard to imagine the Brew Crew getting 1.5 games on the Cubs while fighting off the Braves in Atlanta and an underrated Padres squad. Their best hope is that the Padres clinch a playoff spot before the series starts and rest all their stars.
So it looks like the Cubs will be making their first appearance in October since the infamous 2003 ALCS loss to the Marlins. They may win the division by default, but hey -- the Cardinals did the same thing last year and won the whole thing.
NL WEST & WILD CARD
The drama here is, like the AL East, mainly just an anticlimactic battle between the Diamondbacks and Padres to see who wins the division and who takes the Wild Card. The D-backs lead the former by half a game, and -- considering that they're not much of a team, all told -- I wouldn't be surprised to see the Padres pass them and take over first. That would still leave Arizona with the Wild Card, as the only team still challenging them is the Phillies, who are 2.5 back of the Padres in the WC right now.
So if the season ended today, we'd see the Mets, Cubs, D-Backs, and Padres in the postseason. That's a far, far inferior collection of talent than the AL will field, but see the above comment about the '06 Cardinals. As it stands now, the Diamondbacks (86-67) have the best record in the NL, but if the Padres win the Wild Card, this would make the Cubs their NLDS opponents. While I do give the D-Backs credit, I have to wonder if the Cubs wouldn't win this one. Arizona just isn't that impressive a club, as is reflected in their Pythagorean W-L Record (74-79, which could make them one of I think 3 teams in history to make the postseason with a losing pW-pL record). The Cubs have surprisingly good starting pitching, a good bullpen stopper in Carlos Marmol, and enough offense to make things interesting.
If the Mets and Padres meet, I would predict victory for San Diego. They're probably the best team in the NL, and if they get home field advantage, would be able to put together some good-looking pitching at Petco. The Mets, on the other hand, have a weak back end of the rotation and some hitting issues of their own.
If you put a gun to my head and made me pick, I'd go for the Padres to win the pennant, edging out the Cubs in the NLCS. And I don't think any NL team will win the World Series this year (for whatever my opinion's worth).
Some more news bits:
- The Astros named Ed Wade as their new GM, two years after he was fired from the same post in Philadelphia. Wade's track record isn't impressive, and he also doesn't seem like the guy to build from the ground up, which is what the Astros will be faced with. Keith Law refers to Wade as Tal Smith's (Astros' higher-up) "crony," which if true doesn't bode well for a franchise that has already seen too much interference from upper management, resulting in a pretty barren farm system and low expectations even in the game's most accessible of divisions.
- Jayson Stark wrote an interesting article today about eight managers on the hot seat. Some, like John McLaren of the Mariners, should (and hopefully will) be terminated. Others, such as Ned Yost and Charlie Manuel, shouldn't be fired, in my opinion, although they'll be feeling the heat if they don't make the playoffs. But the two most interesting cases are the two Hall-of-Fame managers possibly looking for a job this offseason:
Joe Torre. Torre will likely get the axe if the Yankees don't win the World Series; who knows, he might be gone even if they do. As easy as it is to criticize Torre's use of his bullpen, I do agree with the consensus that firing him would do more harm than good. Most every manager misuses his bullpen, and Torre's ability to keep the peace under fire is unusually important with the Yankees. It's hard to imagine anyone else doing a similar job, and I'm not convinced that the team would be better off under Don Mattingly or (more likely, according to the talking heads) Joe Girardi. Torre's far from perfect, and the boss shouldn't fire him, but he probably will. On the bright side, Torre can take some time off and pretty much take the pick of any open managerial job he wants. But I'd hate to see the Yankees have to weather such unnecessary troubles just as the team makes the jump on board Brian Cashman's youth movement.
Tony LaRussa. The possible exit of LaRussa from St. Louis is a much more recent development and also much more nebulous. To my knowledge, nothing definite has been said either way about LaRussa, but there have been "hints" that, as he's in the last year of his contract, he may leave for Seattle, Cincinnati, or Pittsburgh. Any of those cities would be thrilled to have him (and rightfully so, considering their present pilots), but it's farm from a sure thing. There were some rumors of GM Walt Jocketty also departing, but that's much less certain, since (according to Stark) he's got a year left on his contract. So too does Dave Duncan, pitching coach and LaRussa right-hand man who's been by his side for 20 years.
The Cardinals seem like they want to keep LaRussa. And while he's made his mistakes, no one should be blaming the team's present plight on him. While it would be grand for LaRussa to enter Cincinnati or somesuch as a conquering hero, it would be an incomplete victory for the city that gets him if they don't also get Jocketty and Duncan, both of whom are among the elite of their respective fields. My guess is that LaRussa uses his leverage to extract money and promises of a renewed effort to contend from St. Louis and then re-signs. - Over at Baseball Prospectus, David Laurila points out an interesting bit of trivia while Dan Fox has a wonderfully geeky pair of charts to look at. The ever-brilliant Nate Silver embarks on a quest to determine the best players in baseball, not on a yearly basis, but as the answer to the simple question "Who's the best player in baseball?" on a historical level.
- I have been seriously remiss in not mentioning Astros center fielder Josh Anderson, the first major league baseball player ever from my hometown of Somerset, KY. Anderson didn't go to the same high school I did (I went to the city schools -- Somerset High -- he went to Pulaski Co. HS), but he was just a year behind me and only 1 year and 3 days younger than me. It's quite possible that I, as a sometime observer of SHS baseball games, saw him play, although I'm sure I didn't know what I was looking at at the time.
Anderson has been a semi-prospect with Houston since he was drafted out of Eastern Kentucky University in 2003. Hometown affinities aside, I never though Anderson would make the majors. He hit for a good average in the minors, had good speed, and played good defense, but that was it. He didn't hit for any power or draw many walks, and he was basically a clone of former Astros center fielder Willy Taveras. So long as the Astros had Taveras, who is a pretty marginal major-leaguer, I didn't figure they would want to bring up his twin. But they traded Taveras in the offseason and promoted Anderson in September, and to his credit, Anderson has done an excellent job so far. He'll be back next year and may even get a starting job in the outfield next to Carlos Lee and Hunter Pence. But if he does -- and no disrespect intended -- it will say more about the sorry state of the Astros than anything.
By the way, if you've never gone to Baseball-Reference.com to see what major league players are from your home town, county, or state, go there now; it's a great way to kill some time. Viz: - Notable players from the state of Kentucky include: Dodgers utility man Dave Anderson (Louisville); perfect-game pitcher Len Barker (Ft. Knox); Baseball patriarch Gus Bell (Louisville); 19th-century star Pete Browning (Louisville); former Seattle slugger Jay Buhner (Louisville); Hall-of-Famer and Senator Jim Bunning (Southgate); turn-of-the-century Pirate Howie Camnitz (Covington); Yankees Hall-of-Famer Earle Combs (Pebworth, a very small town in Owsley County, near Beattyville); 1930s Reds ace Paul Derringer (Springfield); 70's infielder Denny Doyle (Glasgow); Reds and Expos infielder Doug Flynn (Lexington); former Indians hurler Woodie Fryman (Ewing) and his son Travis (Lexington); Red Sox All-Star Mike Greenwell (Louisville); Reds pitcher and pitching coach Don Gullett (Lynn, KY, Greenup Co.); 20's outfielder George Harper (Arlington); Phillies first baseman Don Hurst (Maysville); old-time Baltimore Orioles Dan McGann (Shelbyville); 19th-century second base star Fred Pfeffer (Louisville); Hall-of-Fame shortstop Pee Wee Reese (Ekron, near Louisville); Outfielder John Shelby (Lexington); Senators star Stan Spence (South Portsmouth); Boston Braves infielder Bill Sweeney (Covington); spitballer Jesse Tannehill and his brother Lee (Dayton); old Tigers star Bobby Veach (St. Charles); and 265-game winner Gus Weyhing (Louisville).
Current major leaguers from KY include A's pitcher Joe Blanton (Bowling Green); Astros infielder Chris Burke (Louisville); Indians starter Paul Byrd (Louisville); Rockies sinkerballer Aaron Cook (Ft. Campbell); Milwaukee outfielder Corey Hart (Bowling Green); Nationals right fielder Austin Kearns (Lexington); lefty specialist Trever Miller (Louisville); gigantic relief pitcher Jon Rauch (Louisville); Arizona third baseman Mark Reynolds (Pikeville); Marlins All-Star Dan Uggla (Louisville); Arizona ace Brandon Webb (Ashland) and Rangers outfielder Brad Wilkerson (Owensboro).
There are only three major-league managers in history from Kentucky, and the only one from this century is Eddie Haas, who was one of several pilots guiding the 1985 Braves. That's not exactly representin', Eddie.
An interesting side story is that the only major leauger ever killed by a pitch (Ray Chapman, 1920) was born in Beaver Dam, KY, not far from where my father was born. I asked my Dad if he knew any Chapmans when he grew up, and he did, possibly some of Ray's distant relations. Coincidentally, the man who threw the fatal pitch -- Carl Mays -- was born in Liberty, not far at all from Somerset.
Speaking of which, other than Josh Anderson, the players born closest to my home town would be:
Marv Foley, from Stanford; played in 203 career games from 1978-84, mostly with the White Sox.
Jim Jones, from London; played in 90 games from 1897-1902.
Carl Mays, from Liberty; the afore-mentioned.
Jim Park, from Richmond; 42 forgettable games from 1915-17.
George Payne, from Mt. Vernon; 12 games in 1920.
Lexington isn't that far away, either, and a lot of these towns I've never even heard of (and may not even be on the map anymore).
So other than Josh Anderson, the major-leaguer who's nearest to me by geography is Carl Mays.
Spooky.
Next up is (hopefully) another installment of my series on underrated ballplayers, and I'd also like to discuss the 2007-08 class of free agents before the offseason actually begins.
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Jim Thome
Jim Thome recently hit his 500th career home run, as you may have heard. Since he's reached this milestone, there's been some discussion as to whether or not Jim Thome is a Hall-of-Famer. From what I've heard, Thome isn't any kind of lock for Cooperstown; players from his era have to do more than hit 500 HR to merit consideration.
So let's take a look at Thome and see if we can come to our own consensus, shall we?
Let's start with the numbers and see what we can see. Thome is 37 years old and in the middle of his 17th big-league season. (* indicates numbers are through 2006. dt indicates Davenport Translations)
2,000 Games
1,913 Hits
500 HR
1,451 Walks
2,031 Strikeouts
.281 Career Batting Avg.
.408 Career OBP
.562 Career SLG
.327 Equivalent Average
328 Career Win Shares
108.7 WARP3
5-Time All Star
Pretty impressive, even considering his environment. Now let's see how he ranks.
Home Runs:
...
21. Frank Thomas (509)
22. Eddie Murray (504)
23. Jim Thome (500)
24. Lou Gehrig & Fred McGriff (493)
Walks:
...
18. Willie Mays (1464)
19. Jimmie Foxx (1452)
20. Jim Thome (1451)
21. Eddie Mathews (1444)
Strikeouts:
1. Reggie Jackson (2597)
2. Sammy Sosa (2302)
3. Jim Thome (2031)
OBP:
...
37. Manny Ramirez (.409)
38. Jackie Robinson (.409)
39. Bobby Abreu, Roy Cullenbine, Jake Stenzel, & Jim Thome (.408)
OBP (among 1B only):
1. Lou Gehrig, 2164 career games played (.447)
2. Todd Helton, 1564 G (.430)
3. Jimmie Foxx, 2317 G (.428)
4. Ferris Fain, 1151 G (.424)
5. Dan Brouthers, 1673 G (.423)
6. Frank Thomas, 2240 G (.421)
7. Albert Pujols, 1079 G (.419)
8. Hank Greenberg, 1394 G (.412)
9. Jason Giambi, 1695 G (.411)
10. Jim Thome, 2000 G (.408)
11. Jeff Bagwell, 2150 G (.408)
...
SLG:
...
14. Rogers Hornsby (.577)
15. Larry Walker (.565)
16. Albert Belle (.564)
17. Jim Thome (.562)
18. Johnny Mize (.562)
SLG (among 1B only):
1. Lou Gehrig (.632)
2. Albert Pujols (.619)
3. Jimmie Foxx (.609)
4. Hank Greenberg (.605)
5. Mark McGwire (.588)
6. Todd Helton (.583)
7. Jim Thome (.562)
That all puts him in some pretty rare company. Strikeouts are overrated (although the voters will take note more than I do), and it looks like -- with all those walks -- Thome has a better case for the Hall than those 500 homers alone would indicate.
The best news here is OBP. Thome ranks high on the list anyways, and it should be noted that Baseball-Reference.com (whom I referenced for these stats) requires just 3000 career Plate Appearances (a little more than six full seasons) to appear on these leaderboards, so you get short-timers like Ferris Fain and Albert Pujols on the list, despite the fact that they played very few games. Thome, on the other hand, just played in his 2000th game, and therefore his OBP means more than most on the list. In fact, when you take that into account, Thome ranks 8th all-time in OBP among first basemen with full careers (discounting Fain and Pujols) and 6th all-time in SLG in the same category. When you consider how many great first basemen have played the game, Thome's amazing combination of power and patience are fantastic and, considering that he's been around so long, easily Hall-of-Fame worthy.
But let's play the devil's advocate here and say that our case still isn't proven, because Thome played in a slugger-friendly era. This is true, and although I don't think it counts that much against him, let's take a look at the all-inclusive stats that take era into account and see how Thome fares when his stats are normalized for the offense-heavy environment in which he's spent his career.
Equivalent Average*:
...
11. Stan Musial (.332)
12. Jason Giambi (.330)
T-13. Willie Mays & Mel Ott (.328)
T-15. Joe DiMaggio, Jimmie Foxx, Edgar Martinez, Johnny Mize, Jim Thome (.327)
T-20. Hank Aaron & Ty Cobb (.326)
Inherently, I just can't accept these modern players so high on the list. But EQA takes into account how competitive the leagues are, and with the quality of play at an all-time high and some measure of parity reached between teams, modern players are thrust higher than we may otherwise put them. Regardless, Jim Thome's hitting stats stand the test of time quite well, thank you.
Win Shares (1B only):
...
15. Fred McGriff (341)
16. Johnny Mize (338)
17. Will Clark (330)
18. Jim Thome (328)
19. Jake Beckley (318)
Once Thome retires, he'll easily be within the top 10 first basemen, which is pretty strong company.
dtOBP* (1B only):
1. Frank Thomas (.438)
2. Jason Giambi (.424)
3. Albert Pujols (.423)
4. Lou Gehrig (.422)
T-5. Jeff Bagwell & Mike Hargrove (.413)
7. Jim Thome (.411)
8. John Olerud (.408)
While this is a high-slugging era, OBPs aren't really that high, historically speaking. So Thome's career .281 average and all of his walks are pretty unimpeachable. Let's check on SLG . . .
dtSLG*: (1B only)
...
7. Frank Thomas (.616)
8. Dick Allen (.615)
T-9. Dan Brouthers & Willie McCovey (.588)
11. Jim Thome (.584)
12. Carlos Delgado (.573)
Even when you normalize Thome's slugging stats, he's still one of the top-slugging first basemen. The Davenport Translations have failed to put a dent in his Hall of Fame case.
WARP3* (1B only):
...
T-12. Mark McGwire & Tony Perez (109.5)
T-14. Will Clark & Willie McCovey (107.3)
16. Fred McGriff (104.6)
17. Jim Thome (103.9)
18. Johnny Mize (102.8)
Once again, Thome should move into the top 10 before he retires.
DEFENSE:
There's no one number to really represent Thome's defense. There is something, however. I would like to present a piece of evidence that isn't really the decisive point of Thome's case, but it is the one that everyone keeps forgetting:
So let's take a look at Thome and see if we can come to our own consensus, shall we?
Let's start with the numbers and see what we can see. Thome is 37 years old and in the middle of his 17th big-league season. (* indicates numbers are through 2006. dt indicates Davenport Translations)
2,000 Games
1,913 Hits
500 HR
1,451 Walks
2,031 Strikeouts
.281 Career Batting Avg.
.408 Career OBP
.562 Career SLG
.327 Equivalent Average
328 Career Win Shares
108.7 WARP3
5-Time All Star
Pretty impressive, even considering his environment. Now let's see how he ranks.
Home Runs:
...
21. Frank Thomas (509)
22. Eddie Murray (504)
23. Jim Thome (500)
24. Lou Gehrig & Fred McGriff (493)
Walks:
...
18. Willie Mays (1464)
19. Jimmie Foxx (1452)
20. Jim Thome (1451)
21. Eddie Mathews (1444)
Strikeouts:
1. Reggie Jackson (2597)
2. Sammy Sosa (2302)
3. Jim Thome (2031)
OBP:
...
37. Manny Ramirez (.409)
38. Jackie Robinson (.409)
39. Bobby Abreu, Roy Cullenbine, Jake Stenzel, & Jim Thome (.408)
OBP (among 1B only):
1. Lou Gehrig, 2164 career games played (.447)
2. Todd Helton, 1564 G (.430)
3. Jimmie Foxx, 2317 G (.428)
4. Ferris Fain, 1151 G (.424)
5. Dan Brouthers, 1673 G (.423)
6. Frank Thomas, 2240 G (.421)
7. Albert Pujols, 1079 G (.419)
8. Hank Greenberg, 1394 G (.412)
9. Jason Giambi, 1695 G (.411)
10. Jim Thome, 2000 G (.408)
11. Jeff Bagwell, 2150 G (.408)
...
SLG:
...
14. Rogers Hornsby (.577)
15. Larry Walker (.565)
16. Albert Belle (.564)
17. Jim Thome (.562)
18. Johnny Mize (.562)
SLG (among 1B only):
1. Lou Gehrig (.632)
2. Albert Pujols (.619)
3. Jimmie Foxx (.609)
4. Hank Greenberg (.605)
5. Mark McGwire (.588)
6. Todd Helton (.583)
7. Jim Thome (.562)
That all puts him in some pretty rare company. Strikeouts are overrated (although the voters will take note more than I do), and it looks like -- with all those walks -- Thome has a better case for the Hall than those 500 homers alone would indicate.
The best news here is OBP. Thome ranks high on the list anyways, and it should be noted that Baseball-Reference.com (whom I referenced for these stats) requires just 3000 career Plate Appearances (a little more than six full seasons) to appear on these leaderboards, so you get short-timers like Ferris Fain and Albert Pujols on the list, despite the fact that they played very few games. Thome, on the other hand, just played in his 2000th game, and therefore his OBP means more than most on the list. In fact, when you take that into account, Thome ranks 8th all-time in OBP among first basemen with full careers (discounting Fain and Pujols) and 6th all-time in SLG in the same category. When you consider how many great first basemen have played the game, Thome's amazing combination of power and patience are fantastic and, considering that he's been around so long, easily Hall-of-Fame worthy.
But let's play the devil's advocate here and say that our case still isn't proven, because Thome played in a slugger-friendly era. This is true, and although I don't think it counts that much against him, let's take a look at the all-inclusive stats that take era into account and see how Thome fares when his stats are normalized for the offense-heavy environment in which he's spent his career.
Equivalent Average*:
...
11. Stan Musial (.332)
12. Jason Giambi (.330)
T-13. Willie Mays & Mel Ott (.328)
T-15. Joe DiMaggio, Jimmie Foxx, Edgar Martinez, Johnny Mize, Jim Thome (.327)
T-20. Hank Aaron & Ty Cobb (.326)
Inherently, I just can't accept these modern players so high on the list. But EQA takes into account how competitive the leagues are, and with the quality of play at an all-time high and some measure of parity reached between teams, modern players are thrust higher than we may otherwise put them. Regardless, Jim Thome's hitting stats stand the test of time quite well, thank you.
Win Shares (1B only):
...
15. Fred McGriff (341)
16. Johnny Mize (338)
17. Will Clark (330)
18. Jim Thome (328)
19. Jake Beckley (318)
Once Thome retires, he'll easily be within the top 10 first basemen, which is pretty strong company.
dtOBP* (1B only):
1. Frank Thomas (.438)
2. Jason Giambi (.424)
3. Albert Pujols (.423)
4. Lou Gehrig (.422)
T-5. Jeff Bagwell & Mike Hargrove (.413)
7. Jim Thome (.411)
8. John Olerud (.408)
While this is a high-slugging era, OBPs aren't really that high, historically speaking. So Thome's career .281 average and all of his walks are pretty unimpeachable. Let's check on SLG . . .
dtSLG*: (1B only)
...
7. Frank Thomas (.616)
8. Dick Allen (.615)
T-9. Dan Brouthers & Willie McCovey (.588)
11. Jim Thome (.584)
12. Carlos Delgado (.573)
Even when you normalize Thome's slugging stats, he's still one of the top-slugging first basemen. The Davenport Translations have failed to put a dent in his Hall of Fame case.
WARP3* (1B only):
...
T-12. Mark McGwire & Tony Perez (109.5)
T-14. Will Clark & Willie McCovey (107.3)
16. Fred McGriff (104.6)
17. Jim Thome (103.9)
18. Johnny Mize (102.8)
Once again, Thome should move into the top 10 before he retires.
DEFENSE:
There's no one number to really represent Thome's defense. There is something, however. I would like to present a piece of evidence that isn't really the decisive point of Thome's case, but it is the one that everyone keeps forgetting:
492 Career Games at Third Base
Yes, what everyone seems to have forgotten is that Thome started out his career as a third baseman. And it wasn't just a fleeting taste at third in his rookie year; from 1991-1996 Thome played every game but 2 at third base; it wasn't until '97 that he became a full-time first baseman. And it wasn't until last year that he became a full-time DH. This time spent on the field is what helps buoy his numbers ahead of the guys who were full-time first basemen or DHs, of which there are many.
Everyone's image of Thome is that of a defensively worthless slugger, but that's not at all accurate. That's what Thome's been since his injury in 2005, but for six seasons he was an adequate (if less than stellar) third baseman, and until 2006 he was the same, but at first base. Those who have pictured Thome as a career DH-type should take note that he's played more games at third (492) than as a DH (377). Granted, that won't last long, as Thome will be finishing his career as a DH.
Everyone's image of Thome is that of a defensively worthless slugger, but that's not at all accurate. That's what Thome's been since his injury in 2005, but for six seasons he was an adequate (if less than stellar) third baseman, and until 2006 he was the same, but at first base. Those who have pictured Thome as a career DH-type should take note that he's played more games at third (492) than as a DH (377). Granted, that won't last long, as Thome will be finishing his career as a DH.
Which brings me to my last point.
YET TO COME:
Jim Thome is 37 years old and still hitting brilliantly. Yes, he's a DH now, and Comiskey Park is hitter-friendly, but the point is that Thome has a lot of good baseball yet to play. If his Hall-of-Fame case isn't a sure thing now (which I think it is), it will be when he retires after 3-4 more years with about 575 HR. He isn't in the best of health, and his production will suffer in the years to come, but not before he pads out all his numbers to the point where there's really no denying his Cooperstown credentials. If he has another year or two of excellent hitting, plus a year or two of decent hitting, there will be no denying that he is, statistically speaking, a Hall-of-Famer.
Jim Thome is 37 years old and still hitting brilliantly. Yes, he's a DH now, and Comiskey Park is hitter-friendly, but the point is that Thome has a lot of good baseball yet to play. If his Hall-of-Fame case isn't a sure thing now (which I think it is), it will be when he retires after 3-4 more years with about 575 HR. He isn't in the best of health, and his production will suffer in the years to come, but not before he pads out all his numbers to the point where there's really no denying his Cooperstown credentials. If he has another year or two of excellent hitting, plus a year or two of decent hitting, there will be no denying that he is, statistically speaking, a Hall-of-Famer.
OTHER CONSIDERATIONS:
There really isn't anything "intangible" or outside of the stats to make us reconsider our opinion of Thome. There's never been any evidence of steroid or PED use, although he was one guy whose growth into a behemoth brought on some whispers. But so long as they're still whispers, they don't deserve even the smallest consideration.
Thome has never been considered a big team leader, but neither has he been a clubhouse cancer, so there's nothing there to change our minds.
Thome reached the postseason six times with the Indians, hitting 229/326/516 in 55 postseason games. That's pretty good, if not spectacular. What's more impressive is his 255/352/511 batting line with 6 HR in two World Series (1995 and 1997). So there's an extra point in his favor.
CONCLUSION:
Really, if you take the time to look at the evidence, there's no reason to think that Jim Thome isn't a Hall-of-Famer or at least that he won't become one by the time he retires. He may never have been a superstar, won an MVP, or received proper consideration for his defense (such as it was), but he's earned his plaque.
Really, if you take the time to look at the evidence, there's no reason to think that Jim Thome isn't a Hall-of-Famer or at least that he won't become one by the time he retires. He may never have been a superstar, won an MVP, or received proper consideration for his defense (such as it was), but he's earned his plaque.
Stats referenced came from Baseball-Reference.com, Baseball Prospectus, and the Hardball Times.
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
State of the MLB Union . . . AL West
Before I get to the AL West, a few observations about some baseball games I'm watching on this lazy Saturday afternoon:
- The Pirates just beat the Brewers 7-4. This leaves the Brewers just 1/2 game ahead of the Cubs atop the NL Central. The NL Central race between the Cubs and Brewers looks like it's going right down to the wire. Luckily, the Cubs finish up their season in Cincinnati, so (if it's not sold out) I might get the opportunity to see some history made at the GABP.
The Pirates telecasts are very odd. They have a lot of product placements, but the most puzzling one by far is the Etch-a-Sketch renderings of the players as they come up to bat. Does this mean that most of the Pirates' audience is 5 years old? It would help explain all the empty seats at PNC Park -- I think they actually ran out of people to show in the crowd shots.
I'll be doing another entry soon, weighing in with my opinions and predictions about the various division races. Although it's getting clearer and clearer who's going to the postseason, and there aren't a lot of really fascinating races left. - The White Sox are leading the Indians 5-1 after five innings, beating up on Jake Westbrook. I don't worry about the Indians, who have a pretty safe lead in the AL Central. Their only competition is Detroit, who will be without Jeremy Bonderman now.
- The Royals are beating the Twins 4-0. Boy, the Twins were one of my big misses in my preseason predictions. And Gil Meche is pitching a pretty nifty game. I must admit that Meche's contract hasn't been as disastrous as I anticipated, but I stand by my opinion that the deal will be a poor one. It's great that Meche is having such a good year, but will it really continue?
And now, on to the AL West.
Los Angeles Angels (85-59)
My Prediction: 94-68
On Current Pace: 96-66
The Angels have done a pretty good job of overcoming some tough obstacles while still running away with the AL West. The fairy-tale story of the Mariners has finally disintegrated horrifically, and so the Angels are as sure a thing as anyone when it comes to making the postseason. Let's just look at how they got there and what their chances are when they get there.
It surprises me how much offense the Angels have been getting. They rank 5th in the AL in runs scored, this despite their "limitations" as a strict contact-hitting team. But they've managed to succeed by getting important contributions from several players.
The team MVP is, of course, Vladimir Guerrero (327/405/556), and there's no one else close. But the Angels have managed to get some valuable work from several other players. Chone Figgins is having another career year as a super-utility man, hitting 345/406/454, going 36/47 in steals. Orlando Cabrera is having a comeback year at shortstop, hitting 305/345/407. And the team has finally been able to get some good work from Casey Kotchman, who's hitting 294/362/464. These three, along with Howie Kendrick at second (320/345/458) give the Angels a much stronger infield than I anticipated.
But there are problems in the outfield, even with Vlad holding down right field. Neither Garret Anderson (294/332/495) nor Gary Matthews, Jr. (257/323/428) have been awful, but they haven't been too helpful, either, especially considering their big salaries. Reggie Willits has been a big help here, filling holes and getting on base like a madman (290/390/342). He's a better choice for left field than the aging Anderson, and has in fact spent a good deal of time there.
Other useful guys have been 1B/DH Kendry Morales (310/337/490) and catcher Mike Napoli (249/341/452).
So while Vlad Guerrero is the only real star on the team, the Angels have a great deal of depth in their lineup that doesn't offer any real easy outs. They also haven't wasted a lot of at bats on unproductive hitters (except for Shea Hillenbrand). The Angels' style is unique, but it has also proven to be productive and efficient in 2007. So while we may think of the Angels as having a pitching-first attack, that would be an unfair slight on what is a well-above average lineup.
Pitching-wise, the Angels have been strong as ever. They're tied for 3rd in the AL in runs allowed, even though their defense (.685 DER) hasn't been as strong as in recent years. But their pitching is strong as ever; their 4.18 team ERA is just a hair behind that of Cleveland (4.12) and Minnesota (4.16).
The keys behind this pitching staff have been a pair of aces named John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar. Lackey has for a few years now been acknowledged as the ace apparent in Los Angeles and has backed it up with his work on the mound. This year he's sporting a career-best 3.18 ERA, with a 49:152 BB:K ratio in 195 IP. This has earned him Cy Young consideration once again.
But even better than ace Lackey has been the veteran Kelvim Escobar. The Angels acquired Escobar after an ugly career detour as a closer in Toronto, and he's given them very good work with a low profile (and a low salary) since then. This year may be the best of his career, as his 3.04 ERA is also a career high, and he's managed a 60:150 BB:K ratio in 180.1 IP. With a 1-2 punch of Lackey-Escobar, the Angels are not only cruising toward the AL West title, they're also a force to be reckoned with in October.
The Angels also have Jered Weaver and Joe Saunders, and while neither is as good as Lackey or Escobar, they're very good for the #3 and #4 spots in the rotation. Weaver's ERA is an even 4.00, which is a disappointment after last year's brilliant campaign, but he's still a solid #3. Saunders' ERA is 3.97, but he's not striking out very many batters at all, casting some doubt over that figure. But again, you could do a lot worse for your #4.
The Angels have had a hell of a time getting a fifth starting pitcher to round things out. Erstwhile prospect Ervin Santana has struggled mightility, and Bartolo Colon has finally collapsed in upon himself (6.72 ERA in 16 starts). The good news here, though, is that they won't need a 5th starter in the playoffs, so that weakness will be rendered moot.
The Angels again have gotten good work from their bullpen, but it's not nearly as strong as it's been in recent years. Francisco "K-Rod" Rodriguez is holding down the closer's spot, but it should be said that his 3.03 ERA is his worst mark since his rookie season. He has managed 78 strikeouts in 59.1 IP, which is great, but he's on pace to set a career low in that category (his next-lowest figure was 91 Ks in 2005). Rodriguez is still an effective closer, but we have to bear in mind that he may not be as dominant as he used to be.
Behind K-Rod, the bullpen has been decent if unspectacular. Scot Shields, the rubber-armed setup man, currently sports a 3.78 ERA that's not at all in line with his potential. Apart from the predictably awful Hector Carrasco, the Angels haven't gotten bad production from any of their key bullpen arms. They also haven't gotten very good production from any of them, either, with the possible exception of Rodriguez and Justin Speier.
The Angels will go into October with a very strong team. However, it must be said that it will be a different plan of attack from past Angel teams. They have a much stronger, more diverse lineup with strong starting pitching but just a decent bullpen. How far this will get them is questionable, but it should be said that all the other AL playoff hopefuls have problems, too.
Seattle Mariners (75-68)
My Prediction: 72-90
On Current Pace: 85-77
I missed this prediction by a fair amount but, to be fair, so did most of North America. I still can't understand how the Mariners were good enough to make it this far, although their horrific collapse over the past few weeks has taken them down a few pegs and essentially removed them from postseason consideration. But even still, if the Mariners can finish the season above .500, that's a big step for the franchise. I'm just wondering how they did it.
The Mariners are 8th in the AL in runs scored. Considering that they play in a pitcher's park, we could probably say that they're either an average offensive team or slightly above-average. How did they pull off this miracle? Chief credit goes to Ichiro Suzuki, who's had another banner year, hitting 350/395/433 and going 37/41 in steals while playing a good center field. But we could have expected that. The real surprise is that four or five other players have had solid offensive season behind him, which is two or three more than I would have anticipated.
Number on is Adrian Beltre, who's hit 282/329/503 with good defense at third. Those aren't All-Star numbers, but they're better than we would have expected from him. Number 2 and number 3 are the biggest surprises of all: good seasons from Jose Vidro (315/384/398) and Jose Guillen (289/355/457). Vidro would be an All-Star if he could play defense or hit for power, but he's still been a more valuable run producer than I could have dreamed. I also thought that injuries had rendered Jose Guillen basically useless, but now he has to look like one of the big bargains of the offseason, providing good offense and defense from the right field position.
Raul Ibanez has put up good number as a LF/DH (284/342/462), but that's no surprise. Neither is the good work from catcher Kenji Johjima (285/319/441), and I actually expected him to do better. Put that all together, and you've got the core of a surprisingly decent offense.
Of course, the M's have been weighed down by their mistakes. The biggest has been not bringing up top prospect Adam Jones to play regularly. With an outfield of Jones/Ichiro/Guillen, the M's would be even better, with Ibanez shifting to DH. But it's too late for that; Jones has only gotten 46 plate appearances so far this year.
The albatross around the Mariners' neck has been their infield (excepting Beltre). First baseman Richie Sexson has been woeful (205/295/399), as everything but his power has disappeared. And the middle infield, full of defensive potential that has yet to become reality, has been a drag at the plate, especially second baseman Jose Lopez (259/290/355).
So if the M's can light a fire under their middle infield and get Adam Jones into the everyday lineup, they might be able to push their offense into the top 5 or 6 in the AL. If only so many of them weren't on the wrong side of 30 . . .
The Mariners are 9th in the AL in runs allowed, which is even worse considering their pitcher-friendly home ballpark. A lot of blame goes to the AL's worst defense (.675 DER), but the pitching hasn't been so hot, either.
None of the starters in Seattle has been very good, and the only really decent ones have been Felix Hernandez (whose 4.17 ERA in 26 starts means another disappointing year) and Jarrod Washburn, who has at least been durably average, with a 4.49 ERA in 29 starts.
#3 starter Miguel Batista has been pretty poor (4.73 ERA), and the M's have been stymied at getting decent work from the back end of the rotation. Horacio Ramirez was a predictable failure (6.80 ERA in 19 starts), and although Jeff Weaver has turned things around, he's still got a 6.05 ERA on the season and is starting to prove why nobody else wanted to pony up big money for him.
The bullpen has been a much better story. Closer J.J. Putz has been lights-out, posting a 1.43 ERA in 63 innings while striking out 69. And Putz has, surprisingly, gotten some strong backup from the likes of George Sherrill, Eric O'Flaherty, and Sean Green.
The M's made an exciting and unexpected run at the postseason in 2007, and bully for them. But it's hard to see that they're really any better than an 80-win team when you get down to it, and you really have to wonder who's going to be pitching this team into contention next year. That's assuming, also, that their patchwork offense stays afloat.
There's a lot of promise here in many ways, but what it comes down to is a franchise that is still disappointing. Fire the manager and GM, and maybe then you can get optimistic about the future.
Oakland Athletics (71-75)
My Prediction: 92-70
On Current Pace: 79-83
Ouch. That's the word to describe the A's season this year. Most of the players they were counting on to produce for them have suffered from injuries that have rendered them all but helpless on the field. The team has gotten some extra help from some unlikely sources, but it still hasn't been enough to push them into contention. This A's team is in a transitional stage, and it will be interesting to see how they move to regenerate their roster. Until then, they're stuck with what they have.
The A's are 10th in the AL in scoring, and if there's a silver lining there, it's that they weren't expected to pack a big punch on offense. But even so, they've had a hell of a time scoring runs. Jason Kendall (226/261/281) was supposed to be this bad, but Mark Kotsay (214/279/296) wasn't. And Bobby Crosby's injuries/ineffectiveness (226/278/341) have cast his whole future in doubt.
Then there are the guys who have just been disappointing rather than disastrous. Mike Piazza (282/313/423) hasn't been awful, but he doesn't hold up to the standards of a DH. The same could be said for first baseman Dan Johnson (230/341/404) And Eric Chavez (240/306/446) is starting to look like a big dud, with his big contract making him expendable.
It hasn't been all bad for the A's. Second baseman Mark Ellis is hitting quite well (276/339/440), especially considering he's a top-notch defender. Nick Swisher has been solid (261/385/446) and looks like the closest thing to a reliable hitter they've got. And the A's have also gotten good work from part-timers Milton Bradley (before they traded him) and catcher Kurt Suzuki (244/321/435). Shannon Stewart, who looked like he was going to finish his career as a fourth outfielder, has stepped up and hit 285/343/396 in 563 plate appearances.
But the real quality work has come from two surprise players: Travis Buck and Jack Cust. Buck has hit 288/377/474 in 334 PAs, but it's Cust who has been the team MVP, batting 257/401/510 and shedding the label of "4-A hitter."
Lucky for the A's, their pitching staff is once again carrying the load, if not as well as in the past. Dan Haren has stepped forward as staff ace and currently sports a 3.03 ERA in 196 IP, with 50:168 BB:K ratio. The team has also gotten good work from Joe Blanton (3.77 ERA in 31 starts) and decent work from Chad Gaudin (4.47 ERA in 30 starts).
But the end of the line has come for those famous Oakland pitching staffs. While Haren is an ace and Blanton is a solid innings-eater, you need something better than that to back them up if you want to contend in the AL. Gaudin has been decent, as I said, and the club has gotten help from Lenny DiNardo and Joe Kennedy, but there's a lot missing. Rich Harden only managed 4 starts this year and, like Crosby, any hopes for his future come with a caution label. The A's did manage to shed some payroll by sending off Esteban Loaiza, who wasn't going to do them any good anyhow. I'm still amazed that that deal got made (and I lodged my objection at the time).
The A's bullpen isn't bad, but it's not a strength of the club, either. Huston Street, two years off from a Rookie of the Year campaign, now just looks like a plain, vanilla good closer (3.07 ERA, 58 K in 44 IP). Justin Duchscherer is dealing with injuries, and after them, the best pitcher in the 'pen has been Alan Embree, who isn't exactly part of your long-term rebuilding plan.
Things are in flux for the A's, and the writing on the wall says that this team, as is, isn't going anywhere. Parts can still be salvaged, but there needs to be a pretty big overhaul to regenerate this roster and get the A's back up there with the Angels (and -- dare I say -- the Mariners and Rangers). Let's just hope that Billy Beane is reading the same tea leaves I am.
Texas Rangers (69-76)
My Prediction: 84-78
On Current Pace: 77-85
Boy, I thought the Rangers would have better luck than this. And to be fair, they're looking a lot better than they did in the first half. But this team needs pitching like a junkie needs a fix, and the sad part is that their offense can no longer be taken for granted.
The Rangers rank 6th in the AL in runs scored, so when you take their ballpark into account, that means they're right in the middle of the pack. Their infield was their strength. Michael Young is having an off year, but that's still pretty good (308/361/408), Ian Kinsler is looking like a solid second baseman (276/360/470), and Hank Blalock has actually been hitting like his former self (298/351/550) -- in smaller doses (188 PAs). Mark Teixeira was having a good year at first base (297/397/524), but then he got traded. And I do think that the Teixeira trade was the best move, in the long run. Because while the Rangers have had a good infield for the past five or six years, they've done a horrific job of putting together an outfield.
They did make a wise move by snatching Kenny Lofton on a one-year deal (303/380/438), but then they traded him to Cleveland. Frank Catalanotto has hit well (276/355/472) as the left side of the left field platoon, so that's good news. Even more good news is the improbable comeback by Marlon Byrd (310/357/469), but it should be noted that he's hitting 271/315/442 away from Arlington and hasn't hit nearly this well since 2003.
After that, we've got the rogues' gallery of outfielders the Rangers have tossed out there. David Murphy (382/414/673) has hit well since coming over from Boston in the Gagne trade, but that's just 55 at bats for ya'. Brad Wilkerson (236/315/484)still hasn't recovered from the injuries that brought his offense to a full stop last year. And while Sammy Sosa is hitting home runs and does have decent stats (253/309/465), he's a 38-year-old DH hitting in a pitcher's park who turns into a little leaguer against righties (228/268/422). He might be useful as the short half of a DH platoon, but I doubt that's a job description the Sammy's looking for. He's going to want more money and playing time, and some doofus may just give it to him. And the less said about Jerry Hairston (190/250/291 in 183 PAs) and Nelson Cruz (221/279/357 in 296 PAs) the better.
Behind the plate, the Rangers have benefited (somewhat) from the addition of Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Salty's not hit so well in Texas (242/271/460), but he's still a gigantic improvement over his predecessor, Gerald "Outs By the Bucketful" Laird (218/274/334 in 417 PAs).
If you had told me, coming into this season, that Joaquin Benoit would be the most valuable pitcher on the Rangers, I would have either laughed in your face or assumed that the Texas staff had all dropped dead of bird flu. The latter is closest to the truth, because while Benoit has been decent this year (2.63 ERA in 75 relief innings), the starting rotation has been abysmal.
The "best" starter on the team has been Kevin "Chan Ho" Millwood, sporting a 5.31 ERA in 27 starts. Millwood's peripherals aren't that bad -- 59:113 BB:K ratio, 17 HR allowed -- but it's still a far cry from what you'd expect from someone who's earning a great deal of money to be your ace.
And let's just take a quick glance at the other four pitchers who have made the most starts on the team after Millwood:
Brandon McCarthy: 5.04 ERA, 45:54 BB:K, 94.2 IP
Kameron Loe: 5.36 ERA, 56:78 BB:K, 136 IP
Vicente Padilla: 5.70 ERA, 45:69 BB:K, 115.1 IP
Robinson Tejeda: 6.61 ERA, 60:69 BB:K, 17 HR, 95.1 IP
Conclusion: Money does not solve all problems. At least Millwood has decent peripherals to counter his poor showing, but these doofuses look just as bad as they've pitched. They can spend more money if they want to, but this problem isn't going away easily.
On the flip side, the Rangers have gotten surprisingly good work from their bullpen. Former closer Eric Gagne was doing well (2.16 ERA) before going off to Boston to die. He's been replaced by Akinori Otsuka, who's done pretty well on his own (2.51 ERA, 23 K in 32.1 IP). Ron Mahay was doing well (2.77 ERA), but he also got traded away, sent off to Atlanta in the Saltalamacchia deal.
I already mentioned Benoit, but other relievers having good or surprisingly decent seasons are C.J. Wilson, Wes Littleton, and spot starter Jamey Wright.
WANTED: An entire outfield and a starting rotation. Will offer meddling doofus in return.
Saturday, September 08, 2007
State of the MLB Union . . . AL Central
- The New York Daily News is reporting that Cardinals outfielder Rick Ankiel received a year's supply of HGH from Signature Pharmacy in Florida. This is part of a large-scale steroids/HGH bust involving doctors and pharmacists from New York to Florida. A number of other athletes have been implicated with the sketchy practices of Signature.
I'm not going to have burst a blood vessel and call for blood tests, a la Buster Olney. I think Jayson Stark offered the most reasoned response to the Ankiel story. The most important thing to remember is that HGH was not prohibited at the time Ankiel received his shipments (circa 2004). MLB may try to find some way to slap Ankiel on the wrist, but without more evidence, there's no way any punishment would survive an appeal. Nor should it. Whatever we feel personally about the HGH story (and the related story concerning Troy Glaus), there is nothing yet to merit any punitive action by the MLB. - The Pirates have fired GM Dave Littlefield. In other news, word has finally been relayed to the captain of the Titanic that he has been relieved of his duties.
Cleveland Indians (81-60)
My Prediction: 94-68
On Current Pace: 93-69
The Indians have finally broken through and started playing the kind of baseball I always thought they were capable of. Coupled with the ongoing struggles of the Detroit Tigers, the Indians have 5-game lead in the division. With 21 games left, a 5-game lead is pretty safe.
The Indians haven't been dominant in any one aspect of the game. They're 5th in the AL in runs scored and 5th in team ERA. Put together, though, they've done a good job, and that's even considering that they've gotten poor work from some old favorites.
The Indians have scored 5 R/G despite the struggles of Travis Hafner (260/384/448), trade acquisition Josh Barfield (245/273/326) and outfield platoon players Trot Nixon (257/346/345) and David Dellucci (234/301/389).
Luckily for Cleveland, they've been able to fill some of the gaps. Asdrubal Cabrera, obtained from the Mariners in an absurdly lopsided deal for Eduardo Perez, has taken over from Barfield at second and how (317/367/476). In the outfield, Franklin Gutierrez has filled in well (270/323/500) as has trade acquisition Kenny Lofton (304/377/391). They've done a decent job of surrounding center field stud Grady Sizemore (272/380/460). That plus the production from the always-reliable Victor Martinez (304/373/506), as well as incumbent infielders Ryan Garko, Casey Blake, and Jhonny Peralta, has kept the Indians afloat despite the struggles of Hafner and the disappointing work of this year's free agent acquisitions.
Pitching-wise, the Indians have been blessed with a Cy Young-caliber season from ace C.C. Sabathia (3.24 ERA, 32:182 BB:K ratio. They've also been helped by the emergence of Fausto Carmona (3.27 ERA in 28 starts), but the Cleveland rotation has been shaky after that. Paul Byrd has been decent (4.34 ERA in 27 starts), and Jake Westbrook has as well (4.43 ERA in 120 IP), although expectations were much higher for Westbrook. The Indians have been desperate to fill the #5 spot, with both Jeremy Sowers and Cliff Lee struggling horribly.
The Cleveland bullpen hasn't been too bad, but they've been hamstrung by closer Joe Borowski, who has 40 saves by a 5.50 ERA, just in case you'd forgotten how irrelevant saves are. The rest of the 'pen hasn't been too shabby at all, but keeping Borowski at the end of ballgames is a pretty serious problem. The lack of a 5th starter will be basically irrelevant if/when the Indians make the postseason. But if they insist on giving their worst reliever the most important innings, that could hurt them indeed.
The Indians have basically tied up the Central, but their success in the postseason is no sure thing. If the season ended today, the Indians would face the Red Sox in the ALDS, and I seriously doubt they'd manage to get past Boston.
Detroit Tigers (76-65)
My Prediction: 90-72
On Current Pace: 87-75
The Tigers still have an outside shot at the AL Central and are still close in the Wild Card race, but it's looking more and more like they'll be missing the playoffs this year. It's unlikely that they'll pass Cleveland in the Central or the Yankees in the Wild Card. Stranger things have happened, but I just can't see the Tigers playing in October.
The blame for this can be set upon their pitching staff, which has been a dreadful disappointment following such a strong 2006. The Tigers, who were supposed to have one of the league's best pitching staffs, instead rank 9th in the AL in ERA at 4.61. In their ballpark, that's even worse than it looks.
What went wrong? Pitching, pitching, pitching. Justin Verlander (3.56 ERA, 159 K in 177 IP) is the only hurler to meet expectations. According to VORP, the 2nd-most valuable pitcher on the Tigers staff has been Chad Durbin, who's managed a 4.57 ERA in 34 games (18 starts) with the team, managing a poor 48:66 BB:K ratio in 124 IP.
What about all those other guys? Jeremy Bonderman has fallen off the face of the earth (4.73 ERA), Nate Robertson's stuff has finally caught up with him (4.95 ERA), and Kenny Rogers has been injured (he's back now, but it's much too late). Mike Maroth finally came off the DL, and pitched just as poorly as everyone should have expected before getting traded to St. Louis. Young Andrew Miller wasn't ready for the majors after all, and Jair Jurrjens looked good (3.60 ERA in 3 starts) before going down with injury. Other than Verlander, everything that could go wrong with the starting rotation has, and then some. I think we're getting a more realistic look at the Tigers, who weren't quite as good as they looked last year (nor, to be fair, are they as bad as they've looked this year).
What about the bullpen? They've missed Joel Zumaya, to be sure, although Zumaya hasn't looked as good since his return from the DL (3.86 ERA, 14:22 BB:K ratio in 25.2 IP). "Closer" Todd Jones has been forced, in Zumaya's absence, to actually pitch important innings, and he has, predictably, struggled (4.55 ERA in 57 games). The only really good work out of the 'pen has come from Bobby Seay, which is good news, but is also a statement on the state of the Tigers.
The silver lining is that the Tigers are a much better (and more well-rounded) offensive club than they were last year. Only the Yankees (827 runs) have outscored the Tigers this year (773), with the offense led by MVP candidate Magglio Ordonez (352/425/588). Curtis Granderson has taken a strong developmental step forward, hitting 296/352/545 and looking like one of the best leadoff hitters in the game at age 26 (although strikeouts are still a problem; 131 so far this season). The Tigers have also gotten the production they wanted from Gary Sheffield (277/382/492), Carlos Guillen (297/358/511) and a surprisingly good season from second baseman Placido Polanco (340/391/459). The offense is top-heavy, with the team having to survive with some pretty big holes in the lineup (left field, first base, and third base).
I would take exception with some of my fellow baseball analysts about the state of the Tigers and, specifically, the relative genius of GM Dave Dombrowski. I do believe that Dombrowski has done an admirable job of turning a hopeless franchise into a contender, but there are a lot of steps along the way that I would disagree with. The Ivan Rodriguez contract isn't paying off anymore, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt there, since it was that contract that helped convince players that the Tigers were trying. But the reliance of the pitching staff on guys like Mike Maroth and Todd Jones has hurt. And the worst part has been a commitment to everyday players that goes beyond any rationale (Sean Casey, Neifi Perez, Craig Monroe, Brandon Inge, Mike Hessman, and others). And this was not, for the most part, a GM settling for the best he could get; in many cases, Dombrowski went out of his way to either acquire of keep these players. And so he deserves a lot of credit for the success of the Tigers, but that does not mean that we can give him a full thumbs-up for his work as GM. A lot of the Tigers' problems have been due not to just to injuries, but also to the commission by Dombrowski and Leyland of some pretty serious errors in evaluation and analysis of their players. And they're just going to make that problem worse if they complete the long-rumored trade to acquire Pirates shortstop (and thoroughly useless hitter) Jack Wilson and his hideously bloated contract. The Pirates have already foisted one of their big mistakes on the Tigers (Sean Casey), and if they can send Jack Wilson north to Michigan, it will be two big errors by the Detroit front office. If I were the new Pirates GM, I'd tried to trade them Matt Morris just to see if three times is indeed the charm.
Minnesota Twins (69-72)
My Prediction: 93-69
On Current Pace: 79-83
Whoops. It looks like this is going to be one of my big missed forecasts of '07. But can you blame me? Even with Francisco Liriano out, the Twins still had the young arms to field a top-notch rotation. And while their offense wasn't anything special, they scraped by well enough in '06, didn't they?
Well, my first mistake was to assume that GM Terry Ryan would learn from his 2006 mistakes. In 2006, the Twins started a number of useless veterans at key positions before finally turning to the rookies, who were much cheaper and (usually) more productive. The Twins made the postseason. So you'd think that Terry Ryan wouldn't make the exact same mistake in 2007?
Well, you'd think . . .
Instead, Ryan pushed aside a great stable of young pitching talent and insisted on putting Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson in the rotation. This is a move that is so obviously a blunder that it takes you a while to digest it. To no one's surprise (except perhaps the Twins' executives) Ponson was dreadful, and Ortiz's hot start was just a mirage. The Twins still didn't have a dominant group backing up Johan Santana (3.15 ERA, 44:203 BB:K ratio in 194 IP), but they had a cheap bunch of good young pitchers who could use the major league experience to help the Twins in the future. Neither Scott Baker, Matt Garza, or Boof Bonser have been that great. But they had a much better chance of being good than hopeless and semi-expensive veterans such as Ortiz and Ponson. And what does it say about the Twins when they send good young pitchers to the minors to make room for washed-up humpties?
So even though Santana has been good, as has the bullpen, it's likely that the Twins would still be out of the playoff hunt. But you have to lay your best cards on the table, because you never know what will happen.
As for the offense, it has been predictably bad, even worse than last year's. The Twins are tied for 12th in scoring in the AL, in spite of the presence of Hunter, Mauer & Morneau in the lineup. The problem is that the Twins organization and/or Ron Gardenhire is still painfully ignorant of how to score runs. The Twins are still a woefully power-starved organization, and it seems that that is by design. The Twins have dozens of Jason Tyner-types in their organization, guys who can do a lot of little things but can't hit worth a damn or even man a defensively important position. Tyner, by the way, has hit 296/344/363 as the team's left fielder. It's hard to think of any team that would make Tyner their first choice for the role, unless their other 8 choices were dead.
I've already stated that the Twins weren't losing much in Luis Castillo (304/356/352), even though Alexi Casilla isn't hitting well at all. But still, the Twins knew coming into this season that they would be relying heavily on the likes of Lew Ford (123 PAs), Jeff Cirillo (174 PAs), Luis Rodriguez (135 PAs), Rondell White (94 PAs) and Nick Punto (474 PAs). These were, for the most part, not accidents or replacement players but guys who the Twins intended to spend the 2007 season as regulars. That alone is enough to cast a serious shadow over Terry Ryan's reputation as a great team-builder, and the whole organization bears responsibility of pursuing useless players and failing to provide better options from within.
So while I predicted the Twins would contend in 2007 as they had last year, I was wrong. But looking at the team that the Twins were sending onto the field in 2007, I shouldn't be that surprised; most of these hitters are playing exactly as one would have expected them to. Let's just hope that Terry Ryan doesn't make the same mistake twice --or, rather, three times -- in 2008.
Kansas City Royals (62-78)
My Prediction: 63-99
On Current Pace: 72-90
After years of wondering when it would happen, the Royals have taken a strong step forward in 2007. But it hasn't been thanks to their burgeoning young offense -- they're tied with the Twins for 12th in the AL in runs -- but rather to an unlikely pitching staff that's posted a 4.44 team ERA -- 8th in the AL. That may not sound too impressive, but the team had a 5.65 ERA this year, and if they can maintain their current mark, it would be the first time since 2001 their team ERA dropped below 5.00, and it would be the best team ERA since 1994.
But how much of this is for real? The two top pitchers on the team have been Brian Bannister and Gil Meche. Bannister, considered a 5th starter by many observers, has somehow emerged as the team's ace, posting a 3.16 ERA in 23 starts. But the problem is that his strikeout rate is pretty low: 71 Ks in 148.1 IP, much too low to sustain such a low ERA. Bannister has been stingy with the HR, allowing just 9 so far this year, which is in line with his previous work. But I think that the real Brian Bannister is the guy who played for the Mets last year -- 4.26 ERA in 38 IP. Move that to the AL Central, and you've got a decent starter, but something less than a star. I've certainly been wrong about this before (see Chien-Ming Wang), but I highly doubt that Bannister will pitch nearly as well again as he has this season. And that's something the Royals need to know.
The other guy here is Gil Meche, who came into town with much more fanfare. I was one of those who called the Meche deal a terrible mistake, but to be fair Meche has been pretty good so far in 2007: 3.82 ERA in 188.1 IP. The good news is that Meche's innings -- he's already set a career high -- suggest that he may well be able to sustain a heavy workload as staff ace.
The bad news, though, is that Meche shares Bannister's low strikeout numbers. (Only Texas is striking out fewer batters this season than the Royals, a bad omen) Meche isn't bad -- 132 K on 188.1 IP -- but those aren't the numbers of an ace, and that's what he's getting paid, is ace money. And if he and Bannister both slide back in 2008, it's another sign that the Royals probably won't be contending in the life of Meche's contract, making it an even bigger blunder.
Behind these two, the Royals have Zach Greinke, who has returned to the game after dealing with personal issues for some time. Greinke has more raw talent than either Bannister or Meche, but has been used primarily as a reliever this year. It's a good sign for the Royals, though, that Greinke has pitched quite well this year, posting a 3.87 ERA with a 27:86 BB:K ratio in 100 IP.
The back end of the Royals' rotation has been predictably wretched. Jorge de la Rosa (5.46 ERA) and Odalis Perez (5.57) have been the chief offenders. The Royals also tried Scott Elarton, but they luckily gave up on him after 9 starts and a 10.70 ERA.
By comparison, the Royal bullpen has been pretty good. With the trade of Octavio Dotel, the Royals installed Joakim Soria as closer, and Soria has responded quite well. The 23-year-old has a 2.56 ERA in 59.2 innings, striking out 63 against 18 walks and just 3 home runs. It's great for the Royals to find a cheap solution to an expensive problem, and the more they can do that the closer they'll be to contention.
Supporting Soria is Joel Peralta (3.73 ERA) and surprising veterans David Riske (2.29 ERA) and Jimmy Gobble (3.40 ERA). They've gotten decent work from some other guys as well. It's not the sign of a dominant 'pen in the future, but the presence of Soria alone is a step forward for this franchise.
As for the offense, it was supposed to be the saving grace for this mediocre club, but it's been a big disappointment. Alex Gordon, hailed as the second coming of George Brett, has been just fair, hitting 250/318/416. Ryan Shealy, expected to be a solid place-filler at first, has hit just 221/286/308. Worst of all has been Tony Pena, acquired as a creative solution to their shortstop problem, but while he's a defensive upgrade over Angel Berroa, he's hit just as poorly (257/275/336).
There have been some good developments, though. John Buck, whom I'd given up on as the "catcher of the future," has taken his offense up a level, hitting 231/321/468. Billy Butler didn't make the team out of spring training, but he's there now and is hitting 300/354/458. Mark Teahen has hit well (290/358/412), but his offense isn't as meaningful in right field.
The offense has also benefited from the work of Mark Grudzielanek, David DeJesus, Esteban German, and even Ross Gload. But while there are some talented young guys here, with Gordon especially due to improve next year, there are still enough holes to keep the Royals off everyone's lists of contenders in 2008 and probably 2009.
Chicago White Sox (61-81)
My Prediction: 88-74
On Current Pace: 70-92
Whoops. This is a franchise that needs a reality check. GM Kenny Williams, who's done some good work in the past, is still working on this team as if it's just going through a bump in the road on the way back to contention. Sorry, Kenny, but this is no bump; this is a mediocre team that's just going to get older, and there isn't enough young help to keep pace with Cleveland, Detroit, and Minnesota. The best thing would be to do some house-cleaning and move the players who aren't going to be helping you over the next year or two. And while Williams may end up doing that, I think he's got too much at stake to admit defeat and start a fire sale.
Or maybe he's just afraid of the Tazmanian Ozzie.
The Sox are last in the AL in runs scored. Wait -- let me say that again. The Sox are last in the AL in runs scored. You don't go from first to worst due to a bump in the road -- it's a sign of decline.
The Sox only two impact hitters have been Jim Thome (264/403/500) and Paul Konerko (262/354/491), both quite expensive and on the wrong side of 30. After that, it's depressing. A.J. Pierzynski has been his usual mediocre self (266/316/410), but Jermaine Dye has struggled terribly and put up some woeful offense (247/311/488), even with his good power. Dye is the sort of expensive guy that the Sox don't need, even if he does hit closer to his established levels.
After that, though, the problems are much worse. With the departure of Tadahito Iguchi, the Sox' middle infield has been a nightmare. Juan Uribe, shortstop and worst hitter on the team (219/272/360), has still amassed 476 plate appearances. After Dye and backup Rob Mackowiak, the outfield has been an unacceptable drain on the offense. Scott Podsednik, Darin Erstad, Ryan Sweeney, Luis Terrero, Pablo Ozuna, Jerry Owens, and others have all been below replacement level. Its unacceptable for any franchise with as much money as the Sox to field such a horrifically bad outfield.
Luckily for the Sox, part of their great starting rotation remains, although it' s just a shell of its former self. Mark Buehrle has found his old self and is pitching well enough (3.39 ERA in 28 starts) to justify the big contract extension he got this season. Unfortunately, Javier Vazquez is the only other starter who's been at least average (3.91 ERA in 27 starts). Jon Garland, AKA Trade Bait, has struggled, posting a 4.75 ERA. John Danks, acquired from the Rangers as the hope of the future, has had a thoroughly disappointing debut season (5.41 ERA, 7 K/9 IP). Jose Contreras has been so bad that I think we can safely assume that his days as a good pitcher are pretty much over.
Bobby Jenks has had a good season as closer, but the bullpen behind him has struggled.
It's time to move on and rebuild in Chicago. Williams leveraged a lot on the short-term when he traded for Thome and re-signed guys like Konerko, Contreras, and Garland. It was a bold move, but it didn't work. And now is the time to do it. The longer you wait, the uglier it will get.
And it's also time to wonder whether Ozzie Guillen is capable of managing a losing team.
We'll finish up with the AL West soon.
Saturday, September 01, 2007
State of the MLB Union . . . AL East
If I may ...
- It looks like Cecil Cooper will stay on as Astros manager after this season, but the position of GM remains open for the moment. I have to say, if Astros owner Drayton McLane wanted to create some scapegoats by getting rid of Phil Garner and Tim Purpura, the move has backfired. Since the firings took place, McLane himself has been the one to get flamed in the media, and very few people are optimistic about the chances of the next GM to serve under the meddlesome McLane.
- It's getting to be quite an exciting time for a baseball fan, as competitive balance rages on, especially in the NL, where nobody's sure of anything anymore. So hold on to your uniforms, and let's get started.
The AL East has been exciting, but as Rob Neyer pointed out today, it's an excitement that doesn't extend far beyond the northeast. Both the Red Sox and Yankees have really strong odds of making the postseason, so the only real drama is who wins the division and who wins the Wild Card. So unless you're a diehard fan of one of these teams, the excitement has to be tempered.
Still, there's a lot of good baseball to play, and there are still some very curious storylines to be played out in Baltimore, Toronto, and Tampa Bay.
Boston Red Sox (80-55)
My Prediction: 91-71
On Current Pace: 96-66
The Red Sox are doing better than I expected mainly because of the excellent work from their pitching staff. I expected Josh Beckett to suffer some more growing pains in Fenway, but instead he's pitched like the ace the Sox are paying him to be, posting a 3.29 ERA (after a 5.01 mark last year) with improved walk rates, strikeout rates, and home run rates. He's just been brilliant.
The #2 behind Beckett has been Daisuke Matsuzaka, who hasn't been legendary, but he's been darn good, managing a 3.88 ERA a staff-leading 176.1 IP with 174 K. Tim Wakefield (4.16 ERA) and Curt Schilling (4.02) have been strongly above-average. Julian Tavarez has been pretty bad (4.84 ERA in 21 starts), but the Sox have several young guys they can try out in the #5 slot. And besides, if your 1-4 is that good, even Julian Tavarez can't hurt you too badly.
The bullpen has been, if possible, even better. Jon Papelbon has been healthy and quite productive, sporting a 1.74 ERA and a 14:71 BB:K ratio in 46.2 IP. He's not the phenom he was last year, but he's still an elite closer. Plus, the Sox have a dominant setup man in Hideki Okajima, an under-the-radar Japanese free agent who's posted a 1.59 ERA and 53 K in 62.1 IP. Behind these two relief aces, the Sox have gotten good work from Mike Timlin, Manny Delcarmen, and Javier Lopez. They've also gotten above-average innings from Kyle Snyder, J.C. Romero, and Brendan Donnelly. There really isn't any bad news in the Sox bullpen, which is one of the reasons they stand a good chance of going all the way in '07.
The bad news is that the Sox offense isn't quite the Murderer's Row it used to be. The good news is that it's still pretty darn good. Both David Ortiz (319/429/576) and Manny Ramirez (292/385/495) have been good, but injuries have kept them from being the elite 3-4 combination they were in years past. Luckily, the slack has been picked up at the infield corners, where Kevin Youkilis (289/391/456) and Mike Lowell (323/377/506) have provided All-Star production and strong defense. Does anyone remember back when Mike Lowell was supposed to be the negative in the whole Josh Beckett trade? I don't.
Dustin Pedroia has received some Rookie of the Year consideration at second (315/388/435) and even catcher Jason Varitek has rediscovered his offensive game, hitting 263/365/416 so far.
But the Sox do have holes. The biggest is at shortstop, where Julio Lugo has stunned everyone by having the worst season of his career (238/295/347) by far. Coco Crisp still hasn't won himself the center field job (265/328/379 but with good defense), and J.D. Drew has been a pretty big disappointment (257/357/386), with his power mysteriously disappearing.
The Sox have taken some steps toward filling these holes. They've called up top prospect Jacoby Ellsbury, the center fielder of the future, and he's gotten off to a good start. They foisted strikeout king Wily Mo Pena off on the Nationals. So while there are some issues here, they're not fatal.
The Sox haven't won the AL East since 1995. While the Yankees put a scare into them with a 3-game sweep this past week, I still think the Sox will be able to hold them off and win the division. And with their roster, they stand a good chance of winning the pennant, no question.
New York Yankees (75-60)
My Prediction: 96-66
On Current Pace: 90-72
Even though their starting pitching has been shoddy, and the team has had to suffer through another year of "Torre-izing" the bullpen, they're still the favorites to win the Wild Card. This is because they've still got a devastating offense and some good young players you may have heard of.
The Yankees have scored 790 runs this season. That's a comfortable 1st place in all of baseball; the Tigers are second with 748. So it's fair to say that the blame cannot be laid at the feet of the lineup. Alex Rodriguez (305/414/632) is playing like an MVP, and Jorge Posada (330/413/532) is hitting like he's trying to make it to Cooperstown with one swing of the bat. That's not all: Derek Jeter, Hideki Matsui, Robinson Cano, Bobby Abreu, and Melky Cabrera are all having fine seasons. Even DH Jason Giambi has hit well (260/357/474) when not nursing an injury. That's 8 positions in the lineup filled with either excellent or just very good players.
Then there's first base. Well, they say never to look a gift horse in the mouth, so maybe we shouldn't quibble about the awfulness of the 2007 Yankee first basemen. Here are the hitters who have earned most of the playing time at first this year for the Yankees:
Josh Phelps: 262/330/363
Andy Phillips: 286/323/368
Doug Mientkiewicz: 226/292/379
It should also be said that most of the Yankee backups have been dreadful. It's good that the regulars have all been solid, because Jose Molina, Wilson Betemit, Miguel Cairo, Kevin Thompson and (especially) Wil Nieves have been awful.
Pitching-wise, the Yanks' 4.51 team ERA ranks 8th in the AL. There's room for improvement here. The most egregious example would be Roger Clemens, who is being paid like an MVP, but is pitching like a LAIM (4.15 ERA in 15 starts). To be fair, the Yanks have gotten very good work from Chien-Ming Wang and Andy Pettitte, but the back end of the rotation has been bleeding runs. The first guy that comes to mind is Mike Mussina, who recently lost his spot in the rotation, thanks to a 5.53 ERA in his 23 starts. Mussina's stuff has been looking pretty poor, and he may be nearing the end of the line.
So the Bombers have Wang-Pettitte-Clemens, but who's after that? Mussina is out. Phillip Hughes is their best option, but he's put up a 5.35 ERA working around his injuries. Kei Igawa has been a nightmare of Kafkaesque proportions (6.79 ERA), but who can take his place? You can't fault the Yankees for trying; they've had 12 different pitchers start a game for them this season. And while that is usually cause for desperation, the truth is that the Yanks just need somebody to hold down the fort for the next four weeks. They know they're not going to get quality starts, they just need someone who can keep the game (reasonably) within reach, while their offense goes to work. It's a formula that's worked well so far, but I don't think it bodes well for the playoffs.
Yes, I think the Yankees will win the Wild Card. But I'm pessimistic about their chances in the postseason. If they can use a 3- or 4-man rotation, that will be a big help, obviously. And Joe Torre does seem to do a (somewhat) better job of handling his bullpen in October. But I think their pitching staff is still an easy touch, and I can't seem them winning the pennant this year.
Toronto Blue Jays (68-66)
My Prediction: 88-74
On Current Pace: 82-80
Nothing has really gone according to plan for Toronto, who have had to deal with injuries to A.J. Burnett (surprise), the always-prickly health of ace Roy Halladay (who has still pitched well) and the return to mediocrity suffered by cash cow Vernon Wells. If you had told me coming into the season that Matt Stairs would be the second-most valuable hitter on the team (and he is, according to VORP), I would have guessed that the Jays had fallen on hard times. And they have; it's just amazing they've been able to keep up a winning record.
That they have at all is a credit to Stairs (298/373/577), DH Frank Thomas (265/373/468), Halladay, and especially Alex Rios (309/365/519), who's been doing the hitting usually reserved for Wells. Troy Glaus has had a good season, but other than that, the only thing to brag about in their lineup has been the excellent defense of John McDonald (who is indeed excellent, but he's also hitting 254/278/328).
Pitching-wise, the only good news has been Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan. Marcum has the better ERA (3.62), but McGowan has a better strikeout rate and home run rate and seems to be regarded as the better prospect. Still a rotation of Halladay/Burnett/McGowan/Marcum sounds like a good starting point for 2007. And if all four guys are healthy, I'll eat my hat.
The Blue Jays are about to face a pretty serious reckoning, as their expensive forays into the trade and free agent markets have yet to break them out of the 80-win funk. And I don't think people will be so willing to just blame it on the division anymore. There will be accountability. And it's about time.
Baltimore Orioles (59-74)
My Prediction: 75-87
On Current Pace: 72-90
The Orioles won today, breaking their 9-game losing streak that saw them thoroughly embarassed around the league. Granted, the Orioles have been embarassing for nearly ten years now, but this time maybe it will result in some changes.
The Orioles are 9th in the AL in runs scored, and this is more the result of happy accidents that design. Yes, Brian Roberts, Miguel Tejada, and Nick Markakis have been good, but we expected that. No, what's interesting is that the club has gotten useful work from Kevin Millar, Corey Patterson, Melvin Mora, and Aubrey Huff. The trouble is that the only players here who will still be around when the team is winning are Markakis and maybe Roberts. And that's not such a bad thing; the club should be eager to sell high with guys like Millar, Huff and Mora if they at all can.
Now, to the Orioles pitching: the first thing I must say is that Erik Bedard is an excellent, excellent pitcher. His 221 strikeouts lead all of baseball, and he either has or soon will set the franchise record for K's in a season, which is impressive when you think about all the excellent pitchers the Orioles have had. Yes, Bedard is a stud and although he turns 29 next spring, still the franchise must see the need of holding onto him.
That was the good news. The bad news is that after Bedard, this staff is crap.
The O's have actually gotten decent production out of Jeremy Guthrie (3.62 ERA in 23 starts), but they should be cautious when drawing conclusions about this failed Indians farmhand. It turns out they were cautious about Steve Trachsel, just recently sending him to the Cubs. Trachsel wasn't doing anyone in Baltimore any good, so adios.
After that, the starting pitching has been poor, and the bullpen has been one of the least economically efficient staffs in baseball. Closer Chris Ray will be gone for more than a year with Tommy John surgery. And of the big free agent relievers the team signed this past offseason, only Jamie Walker has been decent. Chad Bradford has been about average, whereas Danys Baez has been a bomb (6.00 ERA in 48 games). The team has hit bottom when it comes to looking for pitching talent. I actually had to do a double-take when I noticed that Paul Shuey was pitching for the O's one evening. Shuey's been out of the majors since 2003, and the Orioles have been finding out why (9.82 ERA in 25 games).
Whatever hope the O's may have for the future is fleeting; their track record at turning hope into wins is abysmal. And as I've said before, only the existence of the Devil Rays has kept the modern Orioles from entering the pantheon of terrible baseball franchises.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays (55-80)
My Prediction: 69-93
On Current Pace: 66-96
I know I've said it before, but I swear, I keep thinking that one of these days the D-Rays are finally going to capitalize on all this young talent they have. You think I'd learn . . .
The Rays are actually 8th in the AL in runs scored, which isn't too bad, but is actually disappointing when you consider the talent they had coming into this season. Granted, a lot of it has been delayed in the minors (Longoria), and a lot of it has had a rude awakening at the major league level (Delmon Young, Elijah Dukes, Ben Zobrist). But there's still talent there; the problem is that this constant disappointment may never go away. The most valuable player (according to VORP) on the D-Rays this year has been Carlos Pena. And yes, Pena's had a fine season (270/386/572) and gets my vote for comeback player of the year, but he should not be the poster boy for the 2007 Devil Rays. B.J. Upton, Carl Crawford, and super-bargain Akinori Iwamura are having good years, but the place-holders have failed their jobs and the young help hasn't come along like it was supposed to.
What about pitching? I've been hearing a lot about the pitchers the D-Rays are supposed to be bringing along; are any of them making an impact? Well, yes and no. The Rays are last in all of baseball in runs allowed, and they aren't even close to next-to-last. Part of this is due to a defense that might as well be carrying boxing gloves instead of fielding gloves; their .655 DER is not only last by a mile, it's reminiscent of baseball from another era -- you know, when gloves actually looked like gloves and there were 4 or 5 errors per game.
So their defense has made their pitching look much worse than it actually is. So how bad is it? In Fielding Independent Pitching (a stat like ERA that seeks to exclude the effects of defense on pitching performance), the Rays still rank last in the AL, but at least it's a close last.
Scott Kazmir and James Shields have carried the starting rotation as the only two guys capable of recording back-to-back outs. But even there, there's a strong feeling that Kazmir should be performing a lot better than he is based on his stuff and his strikeouts. His 3.74 ERA isn't bad, but you'd expect better from a guy with his stuff striking out more batters (194) than he has innings pitched (175.2).
But those are godsends compared to the likes of Edwin Jackson, Jae Seo, and Casey Fossum. The Rays did bring up one of their stud prospects, Andy Sonnanstine, but he's had shall we say a "difficult" time adjusting to the majors (6.38 ERA in 16 starts). The promise is there for the starting rotation; it just seems like every year they find 60 or 70 starts to give to the Casey Fossums of the world. Until that stops, this team will not contend.
As far as their bullpen goes . . . the less said the better. A lot was made early in the year about the renaissance undergone by journeyman pitcher-cum-Tampa Bay closer Al Reyes. But every intelligent analyst was standing up and screaming at their computer screens "SELL HIGH!" The Rays didn't, of course, and now Reyes has gone back to being the thoroughly normal relief pitcher he's always been. The crazy part? If not for Scott Dohmann and Grant Balfour (who've pitched well in limited duty), Reyes would still be the most valuable reliever on the team.
I think I've run out of jokes to make about the Devil Rays. Trouble is that they haven't run out of ways to make playing baseball look like a joke.
Stay tuned ...
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