Trade deadline deals

I'm sitting here watching the Reds versus the Nationals . . . I'm not sure why. But I intended to follow up with my report on the NL Central, but things have changed so much during the past few days that I'd like to go item-by-item through the transactions made over the past week in chronological order.

July 23

Nationals sign 2B Ronnie Belliard to a 2-year contract extension worth about $3.5 mil.

Now everyone realizes that this is a bad deal; why you would go out of your way to keep a 30-something bad-body middle infielder who can barely hit (his 299/343/425 batting line this season includes some good luck). You can get poor baseball players without signing them to multi-million dollar deals.

The only real upside about this deal is the small dollar amount, so if (when) Belliard does tank, it won't cost the Nats much to dump him. And to be fair, he's at least a somewhat useful player, even if that usefulness is deteriorating.

Don't worry -- this wasn't the worst move the Nats made this week -- not by far.

July 25

Padres trade Scott Linebrink to the Brewers for minor leaguer pitchers Joe Thatcher, Will Inman, and Steve Garrison.

I discussed this trade in my last entry. Linebrink is having a bad year, getting older, and is very overrated by his home park. The Brewers didn't give up the crown jewels to get him, but it's still (as I said before) a needless exercise and a waste of resources. The Padres get some depth, with Inman a useful spare part. It's a good deal for them, as they get a decent haul from an overrated, aging reliever having a bad year.

July 27

White Sox trade 2B Tadahito Iguchi to the Phillies for RHP Michael Dubee.

Pat Gillick works fast. With MVP contender Chase Utley out for about a month, Gillick worked fast to fill the hole created in his lineup. Iguchi is a good fit. He's adequate defensively and is a decent hitter with some pop that should play well in Philly. And when Utley does come back, Iguchi can slot in as a pinch-hitter or possible third baseman. Iguchi wouldn't be anyone's first choice to play third, but he'd be a far sight better than the Dobbs/Helms/Nunez fiasco the Phillies have trotted out there so far this season. One wonders if White Sox GM Kenny Williams could have gotten more for a starting second baseman, even if he is a half-season rental (Iguchi is a free agent at season's end).

Rangers trade OF Kenny Lofton to Cleveland for minor league C Max Ramirez.

I remarked at the beginning of the season that Mark Shapiro had done a good job with the Cleveland outfield by replacing quality with quantity. Well, it was a good idea on paper, but in reality, the team is still short one outfielder. Lofton fills the void well; he's not the speedster he once was, but he's versatile and can fill holes in the outfield and at the plate. It's also nice to see him there to provide a link to the mid-90's Indians "dynasty."

Ramirez is a very good catching prospect, but with Victor Martinez behind the plate for the moment at least, the Indians used him as trade fodder. The Rangers come out of this one even better; they're not contenders this year, and with the addition of Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Texas now has three of the top catching prospects in baseball (along with Ramirez and Taylor Teagarden). Hopefully they can parlay this into at least one trade, leaving them still flush with young catchers, which is always a good thing.

Devil Rays trade IF Jorge Cantu, OF Shaun Cumberland and cash to Cincinnati for RHP Calvin Medlock, LHP Brian Shackelford, and future considerations

The really notable player here is Cantu. He's an odd pick-up for the Reds, who aren't contenders by any stretch of the imagination. Also, Cantu is not the type of player the Reds usually pursue. He's a defensive liability with a low batting average and little of the "hustle and speed" skills usually valued in backup infielders. His strongest tool is his power, but it's a real stretch to see him as a full-time player outside of Tampa Bay.

Astros trade RHP Dan Wheeler to Devil Rays for INF Ty Wigginton.

I don't have a clue what this means. The Astros are contenders only in their own minds, especially now that their only worthwhile hitter (Hunter Pence) just went on the DL. Wigginton is overrated; offensively, he's a stretch at the infield corners, but that's where his defense plays best. He could be a useful part-time player, but why is a non-contender trading for a part-time player making $2.7 million? And surely they could have gotten something better for Wheeler with virtually every time looking for relief help?

Tim Purpura, you are such an enigma to me.

The Devil Rays, on the other hand, have a good-but-not-great reliever who could be spun off in another trade (in the offseason now that the deadline is over). He's also a good arm in the bullpen, and the D-Rays could certainly use one of those.

Devil Rays trade RHP Seth McClung to Brewer for RHP Grant Balfour.

I've been one of Doug Melvin's biggest fans, but the Linebrink and McClung deals mystify me. Grant Balfour is an 11th/12th pitcher on a good day, but is Seth McClung (career 6.27 ERA) any better? Sure, he has experience as a starter, but so does Jose Lima.

Nationals sign Dmitri Young to a 2-year contract extension worth about $10 mil.

This one is just inexcusable and has most of the internet calling for Jim Bowden's head (with much justification). There is just NO good reason to make this deal. The Nationals already HAVE an expensive first baseman in Nick Johnson, who is much better and younger than Dmitri Young. Bowden may not have realized this, but there is no DH in the National League. This leaves us pondering the horrific thought of "Dmitri Young, Left Fielder." And Nick Johnson, broken leg and all, isn't moving to the outfield either.

Not only did Bowden not trade any of the players that he should have (Cordero, Rauch, Young, Belliard, Kearns, Lopez, anything not nailed down), they actually signed two of them to free agent deals!

The Nationals and Pirates are in a stiff competition for the title of most hopeless franchise in major league baseball. Keep Bowden around, and it won't be a very close race.

July 30

Twins trade Luis Castillo to Mets for two minor leaguers.

There was much hemming and hawing in Minnesota, since this trade seemed to indicate that the front office was writing off 2007. I can't speak for the front office, but losing Luis Castillo does not represent a significant setback in the Twins' 2007 playoff hopes. Castillo is hitting .304 this year, but it's a pretty empty average supported only by some walks (his full line is 304/356/352). He's still spoken of as a fine basestealer, but this is no longer true; he's 9/13 in steals this year, meaning he's contributed about as much to his team via steals as Chipper Jones. He's a free agent after this year, and the Twins have a capable backup in Alexi Casilla.

I've read some very different opinions about this deal, and the difference of opinion comes down to defense. In an espn.com chat today, Jonah Keri raved about Castillo's defense. Unfortunately it seems that this, too, is just afterglow from his past achievements. Castillo turns 32 in September, and Clay Davenport's FRAA rate him as a -6 (he was -7 last season). The Davenport DTs aren't perfect, but my opinion of Castillo's defense is that it isn't enough to make this a good deal for the Mets.

Speaking of the Mets, they weren't doing so bad at second base anyhow. Ruben Gotay was hitting 350/382/504 with defense not much better or worse than Castillo's (-2 FRAA). Of course I know that Gotay isn't going to hit .350 for the rest of the season. But even so, he's got some skills and might not have ended up much worse than Castillo, if at all.

Still, the exchange won't mean a whole lot in the long run, depending on what the two prospects do in Minnesota (probably not a whole lot). But the biggest problem for the Mets would be if they decide to sign Castillo to a contract extension. Like I said, Castillo is overrated, but he's not a bad buy when you just have to pay a small portion of his $5.75 million option. But if the Mets extend his contract, not only will they likely overpay him, they'll fill up a hole in the lineup with a completely inefficient solution. Hopefully Castillo will simply walk away as a free agent and leave the Mets to fill the 2B hole more creatively.

Reds trade Kyle Lohse to the Phillies for LHP Matt Maloney.

Well, at least the Reds traded Lohse and got something human in return (further satisfying their fetish for relief pitchers). A lot of people are relatively happy with this deal, but I don't see Lohse faring any better in Philly than he did in Cincinnati. With the Reds this year, Lohse sported a poor but tolerable 4.58 ERA, but his peripherals were not exactly rosy. His 33:80 BB:K ratio in 131.2 IP isn't too shabby, but he has allowed 16 HR so far. Lohse allows more fly ball outs than ground outs by far (his GO:AO ratio is 0.82). He may be an acceptable stopgap for a terrorized starting rotation, but I'm not pulling out the party favors just yet.

July 31

Braves trade Jarrod Saltalamacchia, SS Elvis Andrus, RHP Neftali Ferez, LHP Matt Harrison and LHP Beau Jones to Texas for Mark Teixeira and LHP Ron Mahay.

This is the impact trade of the offseason so far. Basically, this trade helps both teams. It helps the Rangers by getting rid of a player who wasn't going to be around when they started contending anyways, and it also brings them back some juicy prospects, the key of course being Saltalamacchia. The big question for "Salty" is whether he can stay a catcher. Standards of offense are much higher for the former, so if Salty can stay behind the plate he can become one of the game's superstar catchers. LHP prospect Beau Jones was a late addition to the trade, an addition which disappointed Braves fans, who think a lot of Jones.

For the Braves, they get the best hitter on the market by far. Not only do the Braves get a stud in Teixeira, they had a gaping hole (first base) for him to fill perfectly. They didn't have a spot for Salty with McCann behind the plate and decided to leverage him for a more established player. You can understand their reasoning, with Chipper Jones and John Smoltz getting older and more brittle, and Andruw Jones likely departing the team next year.

The thing that could really make this a mistake for the Braves is that it's probably just a 16-month rental. Teixeira will be a free agent after the 2008 season, and Scott Boras (his agent) is already positioning him for a record-breaking windfall. Teixeira reportedly rejected an offer from the Rangers for a $140 million contract extension. I don't know that that figure has been authenticated, nor am I sure that the Rangers really wanted to keep an expensive player with a headache of an agent.

So if the Rangers and their bankroll couldn't spend enough to keep Teixeira, who's to say that the Braves will? This deal would be a true winner for the Braves if they could sign Teixeira to a reasonable extension, but that looks doubtful. This means that the Braves really have to get their value out of Teixeira in the next year-plus.

Trouble? Teixeira's suffered from some injuries this year that have sapped has power, which was prodigious even given his Texas surroundings. But he has 13 homers so far this year, meaning that the Braves can probably only expect another 12-15 from him this year -- if he's healthy. Granted, that's a big difference from the big fat zero that Scott Thorman was offensively. But it still might not be enough to get them into the postseason. And if the Braves don't reach the postseason in the year-and-a-half, I think this trade will be looked upon as a mistake.

Red Sox trade Joel Pineiro and cash to the Cardinals for a PTBNL.

Nothing to say here; the Cards are desperate to fill some holes in their pitching staff. The problem is that the Cardinals' season is OVER. And they would have been better off trading guys like Encarnacion, Kennedy, Percival, and Isringhausen.

Rangers trade Eric Gagne to Red Sox for LHP Kason Gabbard, OF David Murphy, and OF Engel Beltre. Red Sox fans should breathe a sigh of relief that the team didn't trade any of their a-list prospects, many of whom saw their names pop in trade rumors for some truly mediocre talents. That doesn't mean, though, that they shouldn't mourn the loss of those B-level guys, especially when the return is Eric Gagne.

I have nothing against Gagne, other than to question whether he can endure the rest of the season. But he has been quite good with Texas this season, no doubt. The trouble is that the Red Sox didn't really need him and may have acquired him for no reason other than PR pressure: pressure to keep Gagne from an AL rival (especially the Yankees), pressure to do SOMETHING, dammit (which is never constructive but is often a consideration).

Astros trade Morgan Ensberg and cash to the Padres for a PTBNL or cash.

The Astros told Ensberg, "Don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out," and then let a perfectly good hitter with a low price tag walk out their door for NOTHING. The Astros didn't trade the assets that were expendable, and instead decided to wait until Ensberg's stock was completely devalued and let him float away.

This isn't to say that Ensberg's struggles this year (232/323/384) aren't very real. Nor can I deny that Ensberg is both wildly talented and maddeningly inconsistent. Here are his career batting lines with Houston:

2000: 7 AB (286/286/286)

2002: 132 AB (242/346/394)

2003: 385 AB (291/377/530)

2004: 411 AB (275/330/411)

2005: 526 AB (283/388/557)

2006: 387 AB (235/396/463)

2007: 224 AB (232/323/384)

That's not inconsistent; it's proof of the Chaos Theory of Baseball. Try finding some trends there.

Either way, it's worth having Ensberg around just on the off-chance that he'll become his near-MVP self again. I believe it was Jonah Keri who said, when asked how many teams should be after Ensberg, stated, "At no cost? 29."

Royals trade Octavio Dotel to Braves for Kyle Davies.

The Braves needed a rent-a-reliever and got a pretty good one, at little cost in terms of money or players. Davies is pretty much out of chances to prove that he can get big-league hitters out, but some have wondered if GM Dayton Moore (a former Braves executive) has seen something in Davies he thinks can be fixed. That's a generous analysis though, as I've heard many people wonder if Moore couldn't have gotten more for Dotel.

Dodgers trade Wilson Betemit to Yankees for Scott Proctor.

Proctor is a good enough relief pitcher who should enjoy moving to the easy league and playing for a manager who can tell him apart from Mike Marshall. Betemit is a valuable guy, but the Dodgers have an easy (and more promising) replacement right at hand in Andy Laroche.

The Yankees aren't so interested in this year; they may yet pluck a reliever off the waiver wire, and they do have some in-house guys like Chris Britton who could step up. Betemit is a valuable bench player, although since his primary position is third base, the bench is exactly where he'll be as long as A-Rod is MVPing the rest of the league.

The Betemit move is also a gambit in the ongoing public negotiations with A-Rod. Both sides are positioning themselves before they sit down at the bargaining table. Scott Boras did it by throwing around numbers like $300 million. Brian Cashman did it by stating that he could live with Wilson Betemit as the Yankees' starting third baseman next year. Neither statement is true (although unfortunately, Boras' is closer), but they are rather attempts at both sides to set themselves up for what could be a historic round of negotiations. Wilson Betemit is like Mongo from Blazing Saddles; "Wilson only pawn in game of life."

Giants trade Matt Morris to Pittsburgh for OF Rajai Davis and a PTBNL.

You know that laugh from the 1989 Batman movie? The laugh that came out of the Joker after he was dead? That's the sound I made when I heard about this trade. It was a combination of hilarity, anger, and the futility of knowing that you might as well just give it up.

This is stupid on a new level for the Pirates. I know sometimes I say that there's no reason a trade should have been made, but that was always an exaggeration until now.

WHY DID THE PIRATES MAKE THIS TRADE?

I had heard that the Giants were thinking of trading Morris to a contender. So it was to my surprise that I heard he was heading to the most hopeless franchise in professional baseball. "I heard rumors all week about me being traded, but Pittsburgh was never mentioned," Morris said in the AP report. He might as well have been presiding over his own wake. Rajai Davis on the other hand, was quoted as saying, ""I had no idea this was coming." Rumors that Davis praised God and distributed cigars labelled "So Long, Suckers" to his former teammates are unfounded.

I bet Brian Sabean had to really work hard not to crack a devious grin when he discussed the trade/dump: "Almost at the 11th hour we were talking to two other teams I would consider competitors in the playoff situation. Pittsburgh stepped up, not only to take on the player as is -- meaning the contract -- but the potential return," in Davis, Sabean said." (AP) Translation: I was talking to some realistic fellows about trading Morris in return for a few easy chairs, with our team covering half his salary. Then Pirates GM Dave Littlefield stepped in and offered not only to let us strike him repeteadly with a hammer but also to pay for the hospital bills himself." Littlefield is taking on ALL of Morris' contract, meaning that Matt Morris, a mediocre innings-eater over 30, will be eating up some 20% of the Pirates' payroll next year.

The Pirates were also unable to trade any of the players they should have been pushing: Jack Wilson, Shawn Chacon, etc. The problem is that these guys (Wilson especially) had been given such stupid contracts by the Pirates that no other team would bite. The only other team willing to take on stupid liabilities like the Jack Wilson contract is ... well, the Pirates.

Seriously, though -- HAS DAVE LITTLEFIELD LOST HIS F'N MIND? AAAAHHH!

White Sox trade Rob Mackowiak to Padres for RHP Jon Link.

Mackowiak is a handy utility man, but I'm starting to wonder if he's finally outlived his good reputation. He was hitting 278/354/418 in Chicago, but you can take a chunk out of that when he moves to San Diego. And then he's not much of a fourth outfielder.

That's all I've come up with so far. I'll stay in touch if I hear about any pending waiver-wire deals, and should be able to get back to the NL Central soon.

Reds Win? An Evening at the Ballpark

I was at the Brewers .vs. Reds game Wednesday night, the 25th. I had a pretty darn good time and thought I'd share the experience with you.
My friend Chris and I have gone to several Reds games together in the past. We usually park on the Kentucky side and walk across the bridge, but this time one of Chris' friends drove us down to the ballpark. On our way in, I spotted the newest miracle on the baseball landscape -- automated ticket machines. We could hardly believe our eyes. We hadn't gotten tickets yet and picked up two upper-deck seats right along the 3rd base line (the upper deck at Great American Ball Park -- GABP -- isn't really as far away as it seems. Sitting there for $19 is a bargain, to me. It's a lot better than old Riverfront Park. Once when I was a kid (sometime in the late 80's) my Dad took my brother and I to an Opening Day game at Riverfront. We sat in the upper deck -- it may have been the very top, or maybe that's just my imagination. A blanket apiece didn't stop us from shivering and losing the feeling in our extremities. But I -- a budding 7-year-old sabermetrician -- still tried to keep score until I just couldn't write anymore. 20 years later and I still keep score at every ballgame.
When we entered, we got our Frank Robinson bobblehead (which doesn't look much like Frank) and headed to the not-so-crowded concession stand near Section 415. Chris thought about getting a $6.25 beer, then saw what size the cup was. Instead he got a Pepsi about twice the size for a dollar less. I realized that I need to start carrying a bag to games, because it's hard to hold a ticket, a scorecard, a full Pepsi, a bobblehead box, and a hot dog without spilling them all over the person in front of you. It took me a few minutes to get settled when we sat down, just in time for the first pitch.
The GABP has a great set of stats that it flashes on the scoreboard for every hitter. They've got all the basic baseball card stats, plus OBP and SLG. So it was to my GREAT dismay that I noticed that the foul pole blocked the part of the scoreboard with the AVG, OBP, and SLG. I was genuinely sad. I jokingly mentioned to Chris that I should make friends with someone across the stadium and have them send me a text message whenever a new hitter came up.
The starting pitching match-up was Jeff Suppan for Milwaukee against Kyle Lohse for the Reds. Chris was a bit bullish about Suppan, but I told him that (as I predicted) Milwaukee wasn't as kind to him. Later in the game I came up with a great nickname for Suppan when he gets older: Grey Suppan (it rhymes-with-Poupon). Kyle Lohse is one of those guys who isn't good enough to be valuable but isn't really bad enough for a team to just get rid of. I've actually heard that several teams are interested in possibly trading for Lohse. If I were the Reds, I'd send him off tomorrow. I actually hollered, "Trade him!" just in case Wayne Krivsky could hear me (doubtful).
The Brewers went down in order in the first, but while I was writing down lineups, I missed what happened to Craig Counsell, the #2 hitter. So I borrowed some terminology I read about in a scoring book: "WW (wasn't watching)."
The Reds got a runner on with one out in the first when Ken Griffey, Jr. stepped up. Now most everyone in the park was there to see Junior on his way to 600 home runs, so they came alive for him. But he popped out to Counsell at short. Brandon Phillips hit one to the warning track, but it was caught for the final out.
Geoff Jenkins hit a two-out single in the 2nd inning and then stole second base. As I saw him take off, my exact words were: "Geoff Jenkins?!" I guess Lohse wasn't watching him. But Tony Graffanino flew out to Griffey to end the inning.
I should note at this point that the Brewers were not fielding their A-team tonight, for reasons of injury and I guess just some days off. So the lineup was:

2B -- Rickie Weeks
SS -- Craig Counsell
RF -- Kevin Mench
1B -- Prince Fielder
CF -- Bill Hall
LF -- Geoff Jenkins
3B -- Tony Graffanino
C -- Damian Miller
P -- Jeff Suppan

I actually had to stop and ask myself how these guys were winning the division. But then I remembered that the Brewers' ideal lineup includes guys like Ryan Braun, J.J. Hardy, Corey Hart, and Johnny Estrada, none of whom started that night for various reasons.
One thing I notice at GABP is something that seems to get worse every time I go there; between-inning distractions. I guess this is happening all over the country, but at GABP, there's a special event for almost every mid-inning break. It's an orgy of product-placement and fan involvement. I could pass judgment on this, but then MLB has been trying stuff like this for years to make baseball interesting to non-fans. But some of the bits are just silly. They're hosted by one guy (whom my friend Chris claims has the easiest job in the world) who has to try and make all of this happy and positive. He brought up on kid who he tried to connect with by saying that he was from his "home zip code." I remarked to Chris whether or not there was, is, or should be such a thing as "zip code identity."
There's the Skyline chili challenge, which is a much simpler version of the old shell game on the big video screen. I haven't seen anyone get it wrong yet, but then that's hardly the point, is it? There's also the Mr. Red race, which is legitimate, since that's been going on since I can remember at Riverfront. The difference is that now, instead of Mr. Red #1, 2, and 3, they each have personalities. I picked Mr. Redlegs (the old-fashioned one), but Rosie Red won when she turned into Wonder Woman and raced down the home stretch. No kiddin'.
One of my favorites used to be the "Song of the Week," where the fans got to pick one of three songs to play during a later inning. In the past, they would play each song and "measure" the cheers. Now, the contest is brought to you by Verizon, so you text in your choice. I would grumble about modern technology, but maybe it's best that you don't know what a grumpus I am.
Back to the game: in the bottom of the 2nd, Adam Dunn led off with a single (which he did not stretch into a double. Chris and I love Dunn, but we did poke a lot of fun at his lack of raw footspeed). The next guy up was shortstop Jeff Keppinger. I turned to Chris and said, "Jeff who?" I know I haven't been keeping up with the game as much as I should, but I figured I would at least know the guys in the Reds' starting lineup. I looked him up after the game and was actually fairly impressed. Keppinger looked like a minor-league lifer with several organizations and came into the season with 176 big league at-bats. But his minor league numbers show a guy who hits for a good average and can take a walk. I can't comment on his defense except to say that he looked good tonight. Usually when the Reds promote an unknown in the majors, they were unknown for a reason. But Keppinger looks like he could be a useful utility infielder if his defense is good. He's doing well so far at the plate (314/368/486), albeit in 12 games.
Keppinger tried to bunt, which got my dander up. You're bunting in the 2nd inning with your #6 hitter? Someone should give Mr. Mackanin a free copy of some Baseball Prospectus books. Keppinger flew out, and after Edwin Encarnacion reached on a fielder's choice, David Ross ended the inning by flying out. Now I know that lineup order isn't a big deal in the scheme of things, but why in the world is Keppinger hitting ahead of Encarnacion? Don't the Reds know about the danger of judging by small sample sizes? Well, in this game at least, Jeff Keppinger made me eat my words (I'll get to that later).
David Ross is the Reds' everyday catcher. I hung my head when I heard that they were going with him full-time this year. Well, I will admit that I was wrong about one thing; his power is sticking around. Ross has hit 15 HR this year. He hit 21 in about the same amount of time last year, but 15 HR in about 250 PA is pretty good.
The problem is that the baseball player David Ross consists of nothing more than those 15 HR. Ross is hitting 193/247/399 this year. That's absolutely dreadful for even a somewhat full-time player. He must tell some GREAT jokes in the clubhouse.
Lohse allowed a hit in the third, but ended it with his first strikeout of the game, against Counsell. He was giving up a lot of fly balls, but it hadn't become a problem yet.
The Reds struck against Suppan in the bottom of the 3rd. It's hard to pitch to contact in the GABP, because if you're off by just a bit, the hits just keep on comin'. That's what happened to Suppan in the third. Lohse led off the inning with a ground-out, but then the next two batters reached base. Ken Griffey, Jr. came up . . . and popped out again. Luckily, Brandon Phillips followed with an RBI single (Reds 1-0). Suppan walked Dunn to load the bases and face Keppinger.
This is what I was talking about earlier: Encarnacion should bat behind Dunn. Because here, they're just walking Dunn to get to Keppinger. And Keppinger . . . hit a bases-clearing triple (Reds 4-0). That shut me the hell up for a while, especially when Encarnacion -- my hero -- grounded out to end the inning.

It was at this point, I believe, that the ubiquitous mid-inning announcer/salesman offered a young fan a chance to win a prize. He had to pick between boxes 1, 2, and 3. The young man picked Box #2. The announcer, with glee, announced that he had won a complete set of GABP 2007 bobbleheads. The camera cut to the kid . . . who just stared. The announcer offered the kid a chance to give up this prize for one of the other boxes, and he did without hesitating. He chose Box #1 . . . and will be going home with a complete set of Big Red Machine bobbleheads. I thought it was hilarious and laughed out loud. The kid seemed pretty disappointed. I joked to Chris that the Reds might offer him the 10-15,000 leftover Frank Robinson bobbleheads (paid attendance: 30,976) and make him pay for the truck to haul them.

The Brewers went down in order in the 4th, and the Reds bounced back with another run in the bottom of the inning. David Ross led off the game with a double, but injured himself and had to leave the game. Brought in to pinch-run for him . . . was Javier Valentin, who is built like a fire hydrant. I guess Mackanin didn't want to waste an actual runner for Ross, but I still found the announcement, "Pinch-runner Javier Valentin" pretty funny. We later found out that Ross had a sprained pinky finger and was day-to-day. Chris remarked that that was pretty low on the scale of injuries, but then I speculated as to how it would feel if you made your living catching fastballs.
It actually took some time for the Reds to send a pinch-runner to second, making me wonder what the discussion was that ended with Valentin running out there. At one point, with Ross off the field and no pinch-runner selected, I hollered, "Ghost man on 2nd!" Chris laughed at this childhood reference. The other people around me just stared.
Lohse sacrificed Valentin to third, and he scored on a Ryan Freel single (Reds 5-0). Ken Griffey, Jr. put the thought of his two pop-outs behind him as he stepped up to the plate and . . . popped out again.
Lohse looked like he was cruising in the 5th, retiring the side in order, but then he did it with two more balls hit to the outfield. Griffey notched his 4th put-out of the game at the halfway point.
In the bottom of the inning, Brandon Phillips led off with a single. Dunn followed up with another single, which he did not stretch into a double. Phillips, however, tried to go to third, but was thrown out with some ease. Bill Hall may not have a great arm in center, but it sure looked like he did tonight. Keppinger followed with a pop out and then Encarnacion singled. With runners on first and second, Suppan was nearing 100 pitches and clearly out of luck. So he mustered what he had left to record his first strikeout of the game, retiring Javier Valentin to end the inning.
Lohse reached the end of his rope in the 6th, as the Brewers led off the game by hitting three balls at Ken Griffey, Jr. in right. To give him credit, Junior probably wasn't hitting because he was wearing a path in the right field grass. The first ball, hit by pinch-hitter Corey Hart, was a fly ball (I don't know how hard it was hit without the aid of video tape). Griffey caught it. The second ball was a serious line drive scorched by Rickie Weeks. But it was within reach of Griffey, who hauled it in for out #2. With Craig Counsell, however, Kyle Lohse had tested his limits. He had recorded 17 outs; 9 of them fly outs and 7 of those caught by Griffey. Junior is only one man. And as I said to Chris as Craig Counsell made contact, you can only be a fly-ball pitcher in GABP for so long before you get hurt. It was Counsell who provided the hurt, with a 350-foot home run that just got over the glove of a leaping Griffey. Griffey actually mis-timed it somewhat, and the ball hit off the top of the fence. The crowd went, "Awwww," in a universal condemnation of such a cheap home run. But a home run it was (Reds 5-1), and Counsell trotted home.
The next batter, Mench, singled. Prince Fielder was next, and he hit a grounder to third that Encarnacion bounced past Hatteberg, sending Mench to third. I admit that it's a lot easier to be patient with Edwin's defense when you don't have to watch it. Hatteberg saved him in the 1st inning with a great pick on a low throw to first (I called out, "Pickin' machine!").
Bill Hall came up next and single in a run (Reds 5-2), which meant the end of the night for Lohse. He got some applause as he came off the field, but I didn't participate. It's nothing against Lohse; I'm one of those guys who won't give a play a standing ovation unless I think it deserved it, regardless of what the people around me do. Lohse went 5.2, allowed two runs and left two more on base. He walked zero and struck out 1. That's not awful, but it doesn't merit applause.
The Reds unleashed their bullpen on the world, and it was a sorry sight. They brought in Jon Coutlangus (and I'm sorry, but that just sounds dirty) to face the lefty Geoff Jenkins. Coutlangus walked him to load the bases and bring the go-ahead run to the plate. I explained to Chris the term LOOGY (Left-Handed One-Out Guy) as Mackanin came out to relieve his reliever. I'm sorry, but the Reds don't have the luxury of using their lefties one batter at a time. And when they do, it's nice if they actually, you know, get that lefty out. More often than not.
Coutlangus was relieved by Jared Burton as part of a double-switch/shift that sent me into Scorecard Anxiety. Burton got Graffanino to ground into a force out, and the Reds dodged a major bullet.
Norris Hopper led off as part of the double-switch and flew out to right field (naturally). I heard one of the Reds' TV announcers talking about what a great guy Hopper was as a player. I just thought of how many other teams keep mistaking speedy fourth outfielders for everyday players. The same announcers probably said the same thing about Ruben Mateo.

This may not be relevant, but I have to say that Thom Brennaman, who has joined his father on the Reds' announce team, really gets on my nerves. He's so obnoxious and intractable in his beliefs that he's actually off-putting. His father, on the other hand, might as well be mayor of Cincinnati.

After Hopper, Scott Hatteberg hit into an interesting 3-4-1 force out. The ball was to Fielder, but it rolled right up his arm. Luckily, Rickie Weeks recovered and threw to first, where the pitcher was (good job, Spurling) to retire Hatteberg. Ryan Freel struck out to end the inning.

During the 6th inning, the Reds flash their trivia question on the scoreboard. This one was interesting: name the 6 players who accumulated more than 600 extra-base hits as members of the Reds.
Chris and I got 4 out of 6. The first four names we reeled off were the ones we got right: Johnny Bench, Tony Perez, Pete Rose, Barry Larkin. Then we had to think for a while for good power hitters who spent a lot of time for the Reds. Chris suggested Frank Robinson (of the bobblehead), but I didn't think he'd been with the team long enough to get 600+ EBH (or XBH, if you prefer). I went with Joe Morgan, who wasn't with the team for that long, but enjoyed some very productive seasons here. We were stumped for number six, though, as I tried to think of some guys. I dismissed the first half of the century, which says a lot about the Reds of that period (although they did have some fine pitchers, to be fair). I spent some time trying to remember Frank McCormack's name, but he wasn't on the list as it turned out. The list was:
Bench, Perez, Rose, Larkin (we got right), as well as Frank Robinson (Chris was right) and Vada Pinson. I got to explain to Chris that Vada Pinson was a genuinely great player who had a long stretch of good seasons in Cincinnati and might have made it to Cooperstown if his career had ended as well as it began.

Burton stayed in to pitch the 7th and retired the Brewers in order. Likewise, Chris Spurling pitched the 7th for Milwaukee. The first two hitters went down easily. Next up was Adam Dunn, who did stretch a single into a double. Wait -- that can't be right -- let me read that again . . . yup, Adam Dunn stretched a single into the double. It was a gapper, and Dunn took advantage of the outfielders, who were probably as surprised as I was. He must have overheard Chris and I dissing his speed. Jeff Keppinger grounded out to end the inning.

At this point in the game, our attention was wandering a bit. We started making some bizarre observations. I noticed for the first time that the Reds have cheerleaders. I can't say as it bothered me at the time. I suggested that every roving vendor in the stadium should be a very attractive girl. It sounds exploitative, I know, but I think we've already crossed that bridge, and you can't tell me that it wouldn't raise concessions sales. I should also mention that the GABP has a great concessions gimmick. Cincinnati has a hometown pizza chain called LaRosa's, which is pretty darn good, and it's served at GABP. LaRosa's has several stores, but one phone number -- ingenious, if you think about it. You don't have to worry about which store to call, you just call the number (which is on every bit of advertising) and they route it to the right store.
But LaRosa's went one step further. You can now sit in your seat at GABP and call the LaRosa's number. You can tell them you're at the game, give your section and seat number, and they will bring pizza to your seat. This isn't just for the club seats, this applies to the upper deck, too. It's a great idea; they already have the pizzas at the ballpark concession stands, and people will be much more likely to order pizza if they don't have to get out of their seat and stand in line. I don't know what sort of surcharge there is for in-seat delivery (ay, there's the rub), but it's still a great gimmick. I'm planning on going to the ballgame on my birthday in a couple weeks and may ask my friends to indulge me the in-seat pizza service.
A little later, Chris pointed to the Kentucky side of the Ohio River. Right next to Newport on the Levee (a big-time entertainment complex to "regenerate" Newport, KY) is even more space occupied right now by low-income housing. Chris, who lives right down the street, says that soon most of the Kentucky riverside will be high-level condos. There's already one nearly completed near Covington called The Ascent -- it looks cool and even has its own billboards. I remarked that this will displace even more low-income housing. I said to Chris that I remembered that the Levee and the Newport Aquarium also displaced a lot of low-income families. He said that was true. I hate to bring up subjects other than baseball, but this is indeed the downside of urban renewal -- which is usually just a reshuffling rather than a renewal. The poor of Newport don't have their lot improved -- they just move to Covington.
On a more humorous note, Chris pointed out a very bizarre advertisement on the scoreboard. It said:
"Regular Mammograms Keep You in the Starting Lineup."
I found that so funny and absurd that I won't even comment on it.

The Brewers finally got to Burton in the 8th. They led off the inning with a walk to Counsell and a single by Mench. The Reds again tried the whole LOOGY thing, bringing in Mike Stanton to face Prince Fielder, and again it failed; Fielder singled in a run (Reds 5-3). Stanton came right out in favor of closer David Weathers. I was amazed that somewhere in the Reds brain trust the utter absurdity of these decisions didn't ring any bells.
But they did make the right move by bringing in Weathers. He faced two batters and struck them both out to end the inning; just like that he struck out more guys than the other four pitchers did in 7.2 innings. The second strikeout was pretty dramatic and may have been the difference in the game. With Geoff Jenkins up and runners on the corners with 1 out, the Brewers tried a delayed double-stea. Jenkins struck out, and Valentin threw to second where Prince Fielder was, to say the least, not quite there. Ross did delay the throw to second, because when he did let go, Kevin Mench broke for home. Shortstop Pedro Lopez fired home, and Mench was out easily. It was a strike-em-out, throw-em-out, except it killed a rally, and the runner was thrown out at home. That's a move that's ripe for second-guessing, but I'll give Ned Yost the benefit of the doubt to try a double-steal with slow runners (double play a possibility) and Tony Graffanino on deck. The only problem I have is that he chose to do it with runners named Fielder and Mench.

Pedro Lopez, another double-switchee, led off for the Reds in the 8th. I had to double-check the scoreboard to see who was pitching for the Brewers ; it was Matt Wise. As I turned to look back at the plate, I saw it in an instant: Lopez got hit right in the face with the pitch and went down. The stadium gasped and I yelled, "Holy Mackerel!" We all got pretty scared as Lopez just lay there, kicking his legs in the air in pain. They didn't show a replay, so we couldn't tell for sure just where it hit him, except that it was in the head. I didn't even see the pitch itself; all I saw was the impact and the fall. The stadium got pretty quiet for a while as we all wondered if Lopez was okay.
I'll tell you who was more concerned than anyone: Matt Wise. The dad behind me explained to his daughter that he probably wasn't throwing at him on purpose. I was glad. Right after the hit, Wise got a few scattered boos, and I actually yelled out, "Come on! He didn't f***ing do it on purpose." Right after the hit, Wise was right at home plate with his hat off staring at Lopez. I could practically see the look in his eyes from Section 415: it was "Oh my God." Later he went and sat at the back of the mound. Some of his teammates talked to him to try and settle him down. Chris said that his later struggles in the inning were because he was rattled. He was probably right; it's definitely why he went 3-0 to the next hitter he faced.
After a while, Lopez sat up and Chris saw that he was bleeding. They were bringing out some towels for his face. I hoped that it was just his nose. I did get scared when they brought out the plank to support his neck and back and the injury cart drove in from the bullpen. The cart didn't drive straight to the outfield; it drove around the warning track and through foul territory before cutting across the infield. To myself, I though, "Yeah, we wouldn't want to drive on the f***ing grass." It might not be a fair criticism, but I was in a bad mood.

As it turned out, Lopez didn't need to lie down. They picked him up and sat him in the cart. He was holding a towel up to his mouth, which reassured me that he had been hit in the nose or jaw. Not that that's a good thing, but I know I wasn't the only one that had the name "Coolbaugh" running through his head. Lopez left the field to strong applause. MLB.com says that Lopez was hit in the left side of the face and had been taken to the hospital to check for a fracture. Hopefully, he'll be okay.
Javier Valentin was the next hitter, and I'll admit to another WW -- wasn't watching. We were all a little distracted. But not distracted enough to miss Jeff Conine steal second. Ya gotta love baseball. Norris Hopper doubled in Conine (Reds 6-3), and Hatteberg sent him home with a double of his own (Reds 7-3). After Ryan Freel flew out (guess where? yeah, right field), Ken Griffey, Jr., came up for another shot at home run number 588. We all held our breaths as Junior went from 0-4 . . . to 0-5, with a strikeout. Ah well, I forgive him. Junior recorded nearly 1/3 of his team's put-outs (8 of 27). That may not be a record for a right fielder (I dunno), but it has to be a record for a 37-year-old right fielder with bad knees.

Weathers had an easy time with the Brewers in the 9th. After all he was, as I said at the time, facing "two bad hitters and Corey Hart." Weathers struck out the first bad hitter -- Graffanino -- and got the second -- Damian Miller -- to ground out. Corey Hart grounded to the pitcher, and this one belongs to the Reds.

Winning Pitcher -- Kyle Lohse
Losing Pitcher -- Jeff Suppan
Save -- David Weathers
Time: 3:06
Paid Attendance -- 30,976 (the Frank Robinson bobbleheads were meant for the first 40,000 fans; ah, the vagaries of supply and demand . . .)

Chris and I made our way out of the stadium. We noticed that at a certain point in the concourse, the walkway outside the stadium is just a short jump to the walkway inside the stadium. We joked that this would be an easy way to get inside, but then Chris brought up the whole risk of sudden death thing. And I remarked that there were a much better ways to die, in which we would not be immortalized in America's Dumbest Criminals 4.
Chris tried to convince one of his friends to drive to the game and pick us up. Since this guy was less than a mile from us at the time, we didn't think it was a huge deal. But apparently he got confused when we said to drive across the big white bridge and meet us at the bottom of it. That was a bit complex for many people, I admit.

All in all, I had me a baseball game. I had me a bobblehead. I had me a carefully crafted scorecard, which would be double-checked accounting-style when I got home. And I had a friend.

And I can't wait to do it again.

Baseball . . .

State of the Baseball Union: NL East

My apologies for neglecting the blog. I've been working too hard at the things that do pay me to spend enough time on my hobbies, which really is a shame. I know we're a bit past the halfway point and a week past the All-Star break, but it's never too late to look at the state of things. Let's see how the races are turning out, starting with the National League (stats and standings are as of Friday the 20th.

NL EAST

New York Mets

The Mets are 53-42 and in 1st place, 2.5 games ahead of Atlanta. The Mets are doing about as well as I expected; winning the division, but not as good as last year. But they're going about it the opposite way I expected. All of the noise right now is about the Mets going after a starting pitcher. And while they could use another warm body in the rotation, their pitching has been just fine so far this year. The Mets' 3.89 team ERA is second only to the amazin' Padres' 3.10 mark. So while it would be nice to find someone more reliable than Jorge Sosa for the #5 spot in the rotation (despite Sosa's 3.84 ERA so far), there's no need to panic and pick up a bad contract (Jose Contreras).

What the Mets do need to be concerned about is their hitting. Their 433 runs scored ranks 7th in the league and 4th in their own division. David Wright and Jose Reyes are doing great; everybody else has been pretty disappointing. Moises Alou has hit well (318/374/445), but has made just over 100 plate appearances. Carlos Beltran (258/340/468) and especially Carlos Delgado (251/319/448) have taken a big step back from their career form. And the team has put too much time into Shawn Green (278/328/424) and alleged All-Star Paul Lo Duca (270/316/360). They've gotten some good production out of some role players (Ruben Gotay, Ramon Castro, Damion Easley) as is their custom, but these guys can't be depended upon for the future. And they're balanced out by the poor work shown by Jose Valentin, Julio Franco, Lastings Milledge, Carlos Gomez, and others.

So if I were the Mets, I'd spend far more time trying to work out a deal for a spare corner outfielder (call the Cubs, they've got 80) or a second baseman. The team seems committed to Paul Lo Duca, so there's not much room for improvement there.

The good news is that the Mets pitching is good enough as is, and the offense (particularly Dos Carlos) should revert somewhat back to their previous form. But they're getting a good challenge from the Braves and may have to fend off the Phillies eventually. I think they'll make it into October, but I'd feel a lot safer if a) the team could solve its hitting problems, and b) the team actually realized that hitting is the problem.

Atlanta Braves

I picked the Braves to win 80 games and finish 4th in their division. Right now they're in 2nd and are on pace to win 86. The difference between the two is the difference between contending for the Wild Card and not. The Braves don't have great pitching or great hitting, but they've been doing good enough with both to get by. But I don't think they're much better than they are right now, and they're more likely to fade down the stretch than to get better.

Offensively, the most room for improvement is in Andruw Jones (220/321/437). Andruw's already started to bounce back from a horrible start that saw him hitting below the Mendoza line through June. He should hit more like the old Andruw in the second half, if only because Scott Boras will strangle him if he doesn't.

The Braves just aren't getting enough offense from their key offensive positions. The middle infield is golden, with both Edgar Renteria and Kelly Johhnson having good year, and catcher Brian McCann is doing well, if a little poorer than expected (269/324/462). Even Chipper Jones is still hitting like himself (337/430/587), injuries and age be damned. But their outfield is very weak. Flanking Andruw, the Braves have Jeff Francoeur in right. Francoeur is doing better than usual (291/330/426), but is a well-below-average right fielder in terms of offense. Luckily, Matt Diaz is picking up the slack in left, filling a big hole for the team with a 358/379/485 batting line. The problem is that when Diaz's batting average comes back to earth, he'll be a pretty average left fielder. And the Braves need someone else to be above-average, with Ryan Langerhans (068/192/091) flunking out and ending up in Washington.

First base has been a disaster for Atlanta. I thought they were crazy for starting Scott Thorman and -- for once, at least -- I was right, as Thorman has been truly wretched (212/253/382). The Braves have brought up catching prospect Jarrod Saltalamacchia and put him at first. "Salty" has been better (278/331/414), but this longtime catcher doesn't hit like a first baseman and may never do so. The Braves could use a jolt of offense at first base, and I doubt that Julio Franco is it.

Pitching-wise, the team has similar problems; they're good, but far from great. The team needs to thank their lucky stars that Tim Hudson is pitching well again (3.24 ERA), and he joins John Smoltz and Chuck James to form a pretty good 1-3. But pretty good won't get them past L.A. in the Wild Card race, especially when they've had a terrible time filling in the #4 and #5 slots. Buddy Carlyle has done a good job as an emergency starter, but the pixie dust should be wearing of him eventually. Kyle Davies has been dreadful (5.76 ERA), making some wonder if he'll ever fulfill his promise as a prospect. The Braves called up prospect Jo-Jo Reyes to start, but his debut in the majors has thus far been pretty ugly (8.68 ERA in 2 starts).

The bullpen has been equally inconsistent, with Bob Wickman the best example. In betting terms, the Braves didn't know to stop while they were ahead, keeping Wickman in the closer's spot long after the sirens went off signalling imminent doom. Wickman's 4.36 ERA is terrible for a closer, and there's no sign that it's a fluke. With Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez pitching well, the Braves have room to take Wickman out of the closer's spot. Even then it may be too late, as Wickman's poor performance has lowered his trade value.

The Braves don't have the depth in their own system to make a significant improvement this year, so their best hope of getting better is through a trade. The problem is that the Braves have become more conservative when it comes to in-season trading, and they're only going to tighten the purse strings more with the change in ownership. They will probably look into some low-end acquisitions, but it's unlikely that they'll give up the money or prospects it would take to get an impact player like Adam Dunn or Mark Teixeira.

Therefore, I seriously doubt that the Braves will make the postseason. They're doing better than I expected, and 86 wins would be a good step forward, but that may not be enough to win the Wild card, even assuming that they can keep up the pace.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have been pretty darn disappointing thus far. I don't blame Jimmy Rollins and his jinx. I don't even blame Ryan Howard for hitting slightly less than brilliant. The problem here has been correctly diagnosed: an injured, decrepit pitching staff. But the Phillies' offense is so good that it's hard to dismiss them as contenders for the Wild Card.

The Phillies offense is scoring 5.29 R/G. They're 1st in the NL by plenty; the Rockies are 2nd at 4.92. They've been just as good as advertised, and even better. Chase Utley (336/405/585) has been amazing, and if the Phillies manage to come back, he's a good bet for MVP. Jimmy Rollins (286/331/518) has been as good as ever, and Ryan Howard is back to his old self (263/387/584). They've also gotten a career year from Aaron Rowand (330/404/525) as well as solid work from Shane Victorino and Pat Burrell. They've gotten predictably poor work from third basemen Wes Helms and Abraham Nunez, but the rest of the order is strong enough (their production at catcher is acceptable) that their third base woes aren't such a big deal. The big deal is pitching.

With Jon Lieber and Freddy Garcia injured, not to mention possible starter Brett Myers and titular closer Tom Gordon, the Phillie pitching has been pretty poor. Cole Hamels (3.69 ERA, 32:129 BB:K ratio) has developed into the ace the Phillies need, but after that, it's very thin. The only other starter with a better-than-average run average is Kyle Kendrick, whose 4.40 ERA isn't really the sign of a #2 starter. Jamie Moyer has been durable, if below-average (4.99 ERA in 119 IP), but he too isn't a passable #2. The only other pitcher with multiple starts on the team is Adam Eaton, whose awfulness (5.98 ERA) came as a surprise to no one outside of the GM's office. There's not a lot of help at hand, since Hamels was their top pitching prospect by quite a bit. Myers should be back soon, and here's hoping the Phillies get their priorities straight and return him to the rotation, where he should at least eat some innings. If Tom Gordon can return in good health (fingers crossed), then there's another hole filled. The middle relief corps isn't all that bad, taped together though it may be. They're certainly not desperate enough to push the "in case of fire, call Jose Mesa" button, but they've brought in the man none the less (his 3.78 ERA is belied by a 6.48 RA -- run average. Jose is letting in a lot of other people's runs).

The Phillies are on the lookout for pitching help, and even in a bare market, they're looking at whomever they can. The problem is that they're in a really tough place; they just might be contenders, but is it worth giving up prospects and adding payroll for such a small window of opportunity? I don't think so, but that doesn't mean that the Phillies won't try. I wouldn't object to a half-season rental if it came cheap, but the Phillies don't need to add any long-term liabilities for such a small chance of reaching the postseason.

I think the Phillies will get better, but I don't think it will be enough to reach the postseason. My guess is they give the Braves a real fight for 2nd place, but fall short of first.

Florida Marlins

I predicted the Marlins would win 82 games. I then listed the pros and cons of making such a choice. My first statement under cons was that "their 2006 success is hard to repeat. All of their rookies were so good, and so many of them reached their potential in 2006, that's there's not a lot of room for upward expansion. In fact, it's more realistic to expect several guys to suffer setbacks. We've already seen it start among the young pitchers (Jason Johnson, Anibal Sanchez), and it's likely to cascade. The only sure thing is Miguel Cabrera's MVP Candidacy."

I was exactly right. If only I'd listened to myself, because I favored the pros and predicted the Marlins would improve upon their 2006. Right now they're in 4th place at 46-51, and that's probably where they'll end up.

I figured the Marlins would have a balanced, if mediocre, attack in 2007. On the contrary, they've been spectacularly unbalanced. Their offense is far, far beyond what I thought they were capable of. They're scoring 4.75 R/G in a big pitcher's park; the only teams ahead of them in R/G play in bandboxes: Philadelphia, Colorado, Cincinnati. I was right about Cabrera (328/401/603), although his rapidly expanding waistline will probably limit his time at third. But even if he does end up in the outfield, he still looks like the next Bobby Abreu, with the good chance of being even better.

The biggest surprise is shortstop Hanley Ramirez, who's hitting like an MVP (329/384/538). If his defense were better (-11 FRAA and counting), he would be an MVP candidate. Josh Willingham's doing well, Dan Uggla is still a productive hitter, and would you believe Aaron f'n Boone is hitting 286/388/423? Jeremy Hermida looks like he might be turning it around, Todd Linden is the actually valuable player that the Marlins got from the Giants, and first baseman Mike Jacobs is at least decent. Life is good for the Florida offense, especially considering it costs about as much as 5 starts from Roger Clemens.

I predicted that the Florida pitchers would take a step back. But their 5.15 RA/G is second-worst in the league to the Pirates. That's partly due to a weak defense, (.671 DER is worst in the NL), but you still can't sugarcoat a 4.56 ERA in a pitcher's park. Their strikeout rate is about average (6.6 K/G), but their walk rate is the worst in baseball (4.1 BB/G).

What happened here? Injuries to key players are partially to blame, but even the healthy ones haven't pitched very well. The only above-average starter on the entire team has been Sergio Mitre (2.82 ERA), and that won't last long. Scott Olsen was supposed to be one of the go-to guys, but he's sporting a 5.57 ERA and was recently suspended by the Marlins for yelling at a coach. Byung-Hyun Kim has shown that he can be mediocre at low altitudes (4.63 ERA), and the Fish have gotten so desperate they've actually called up 4-A mainstay Wes Obermueller (6.56 ERA in 18 games, 7 of them starts).

Injuries to Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, and Anibal Sanchez mean that the pitching staff isn't going to get any better. The only real hope for recovery is for Dontrelle Willis to start pitching like, well . . . Dontrelle Willis.

Here's a short look at Dontrelle Willis' career:

2003: 3.30 ERA, 160.2 IP, 58:142 BB:K ratio

2004: 4.02 ERA, 197 IP, 61:139 BB:K ratio

2005: 2.63 ERA, 236.1 IP, 55:170 BB:K ratio

2006: 3.87 ERA, 223.1 IP, 83:160 BB:K ratio

2007: 5.13 ERA, 121 IP, 55:84 BB:K ratio (he's also on pace to set a career high in HR allowed)

My point is that Dontrelle Willis just isn't as good as people think he is, and he's worryingly inconsistent. His career ERA right now is 3.65. Now, a guy with a career ERA like that who can also go 200+ innings and give you more than 150 strikeouts is certainly valuable, especially when he's just 25. But he's not one of the top 10 (or 15) pitchers in baseball, and if you pit him in an AL hitter's park, he might explode.

Dontrelle's public image has just never caught up with his dwindling performance. Dontrelle was a star in 2003, and he cashed in his great PR with a genuinely great 2005. But since then, no one's bothered to look at the big picture and wonder if Dontrelle is still maybe the wunderkind everyone thinks he is.

I'm probably exaggerating. Dontrelle's woeful 2007 has certainly lowered his trade value and has probably lowered his first big free agent contract by a few million. But Dontrelle is so exciting that I'm sure some GM out there will be willing to pay enough to get the imaginary Dontrelle (the superstar), even though he's actually getting the real Dontrelle (the star). And the difference between a star pitcher and a superstar pitcher is $10-20 million.

And returning from the detour, I think we can safely conclude that the Marlins are out of the 2007 postseason chase. While they might make another crazy Benitez-like trade, it's not likely that they'll acquire enough to make a big difference in their record.

Washington Nationals

Ha, ha! Sorry, I shouldn't gloat every time I'm right, because then I'll have to apologize every time I'm wrong. Which is a more frequent occurrence, so to speak.

But really; if the Nats had really started from the ground up in 2005, then they'd actually be starting to show signs of quality here. But while some of Jim Bowden's moves have been wise, he's never fully committed to rebuilding with the zeal that the Marlins have shown in years past. As a result, his team is only somewhat rebuilt. But, as several analysts have pointed out, the worst thing a baseball team can do is this half-ass rebuilding project where they try to have it both ways. The Royals and Pirates are shining examples of this in recent years. They try to make a few trades to regenerate a depleted farm system, but then they go out and sign a few useless free agents so they won't completely lose face with public. The result is worse than rebuilding or not rebuilding -- it's a decade of irrelevance.

The Nats haven't gone as far as the Royals or Pirates in terms of signing useless free agents; they learned from the Vinny Castilla/Cristian Guzman debacle. But they still haven't fully committed to selling off the big-league team and helping stock one of the worst farm systems in baseball. They have just such an opportunity right now, as the July 31 trade deadline looms.

Eyes will be on Jim Bowden, expecting him to avoid repeating the Alfonso Soriano blunder from last year (where Bowden tried to re-sign Soriano to a contract extension. Luckily for Bowden, Soriano didn't take him up on his self-destructive offer. Unfortunately, Bowden played hardball and bluffed himself into a corner, not trading Soriano and losing him to free agency with nothing but a draft pick in return). Rob Neyer commented that if Dmitri Young is still a Nat after July 31, Bowden should be fired. He's right; Young is the perfect example of buying low and selling high. It's a great system so long as you remember the part about selling. Other have set a more stringent standard for Bowden: anyone but Ryan Zimmerman should be available, and they should be shopped aggressively, none of this Soriano nonsense.

The truth is that the Nats are awful and will be awful for a while. It's up to Jim Bowden to determine how long that awfulness will last. Because if he's tempted to half-ass his rebuilding project, he might as well make friends with Dave Littlefield and the Pirates in the Land of Forgotten Franchises.

Just a note: I predicted the Nats would finish 68-94 this season. Right now, they're 40-56, on pace to finish . . . 68-94. It should be noted, though, that their Pythagorean record is 37-59, the worst in baseball. Yes, even worse than the Devil Rays (38-57). They're scoring 3.82 R/G, which might have been good in the 70's, but in 2007 it's the worst in all of baseball by a fair margin. The next-worst team is Arizona (4.07). They're 9th in the league in RA/G, at 4.96. That's not so terrible, even in a pitcher's park. But that mostly reflects their good defense. Their staff ERA is 4.73; only the Cardinals are worse (4.77), and if you consider ballparks, the Nats are probably worst of all.

The Nat's do have some consolation; their .417 winning percentage is higher than the approval ratings of both the President and Congress. When the baseball team has a higher approval rating than 2 of the 3 branches of government (and Dick Cheney), something ain't right.

Back soon with the Double-A Southern League -- er, the NL Central.